The following percentages were calculated by "playing out" the remaining games of the season via coinflip with one caveat: for each set of simulations, one team is picked to win out while another is picked to lose out. Each combo is used an equal number of times. Using the "win out"/"lose out" teams gives information on which teams are starting to have their playoff chances fade away (i.e. those teams that don't always make the playoffs when they win out) and which teams are locking up a spot (i.e. those teams that make the playoffs even if they lose out).
| AFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Buffalo Bills | 6.5% | 11.5% | -3.2% | -6.0% |
| Miami Dolphins | 23.5% | 38.7% | -0.7% | +0.6% |
| New England Patriots | 55.0% | 69.6% | +10.7% | +10.5% |
| New York Jets | 14.9% | 26.2% | -6.8% | -9.0% |
After last week's loss, this was exactly what the Patriots needed: a win against a tough foe while having no other winners in the division (the Dolphins were on a bye). New England is back over 50% for winning the division.
| AFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 26.7% | 35.1% | -7.1% | -8.3% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 41.1% | 53.5% | +11.3% | +12.1% |
| Cleveland Browns | 22.6% | 31.7% | -6.4% | -8.2% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.6% | 13.1% | +2.2% | +3.5% |
Baltimore and Cleveland stumbled this weekend giving Cincinnati the biggest boost of any team in regards to their chances of winning the division. The Steelers got their first win of the season, but it only gave them a minor bump in regards to winning the division or making the playoffs.
| AFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Houston Texans | 17.5% | 22.0% | -0.3% | -4.1% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 52.4% | 58.2% | +0.7% | -3.9% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4.3% | 5.0% | -0.3% | -1.1% |
| Tennessee Titans | 25.8% | 34.8% | -0.1% | -5.1% |
Every team in the AFC South lost this past weekend, and they resulted in a minor increase for the division leading Colts.
| AFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Denver Broncos | 44.2% | 82.2% | +1.1% | +8.9% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 45.5% | 81.8% | +3.0% | +10.0% |
| Oakland Raiders | 2.7% | 12.0% | -4.2% | -7.3% |
| San Diego Chargers | 7.6% | 24.4% | +0.1% | +7.3% |
At this point, Denver or Kansas City wins this division 90% of the time. Even with their win, the Chargers barely saw their division win percentage increase any.
| NFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 42.1% | 50.4% | +7.8% | +8.5% |
| New York Giants | 4.7% | 5.6% | -3.0% | -3.8% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 41.7% | 49.9% | +5.7% | +6.6% |
| Washington Redskins | 11.5% | 14.3% | -10.6% | -11.9% |
The tight race between the Cowboys and Eagles will be broken up this weekend as the two face off. New York is running out of time to turn their season around.
| NFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Chicago Bears | 31.9% | 50.6% | +1.6% | +5.7% |
| Detroit Lions | 33.2% | 53.2% | +1.3% | +4.6% |
| Green Bay Packers | 28.6% | 44.5% | +1.3% | +4.3% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6.3% | 11.0% | -4.3% | -8.2% |
The best three way race currently in the NFL is in the NFC North, and at the end of the year, one of the three teams is likely to be sitting at home out of the playoffs.
| NFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8.3% | 15.6% | +1.1% | -1.7% |
| Carolina Panthers | 17.9% | 28.4% | +5.5% | +6.0% |
| New Orleans Saints | 68.8% | 81.3% | -5.8% | -5.8% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4.9% | 7.5% | -0.8% | -4.5% |
New Orleans still has the best "win your division" percentage even though they lost this past weekend. The Buccaneers have the best percentages of any of the "oh-fer" teams.
| NFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 12.1% | 30.3% | -10.3% | -16.6% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 24.7% | 55.4% | +3.4% | +8.2% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 48.8% | 71.7% | +5.3% | +4.6% |
| St. Louis Rams | 14.4% | 30.2% | +1.6% | +4.0% |
The Seahawks have a strong lead thanks to a game lead and a win over the 49ers. The NFC West is the only division that doesn't have a team that mostly out of the picture.
The list of teams that might not win their division even if they win out has expanded to twelve. Even if the Raiders win out from here, they win their division less than two thirds of the time. Hurts to be four games plus have a loss to the two teams a top your division. However, the Chargers still win the division 99% of the time if they win out and they're three games back but haven't lost to either the Broncos or Chiefs. Interesting how much additional that game "and a half" hurts.
| Div Win | |
|---|---|
| Oakland Raiders | 63.7% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 86.7% |
| New York Giants | 87.1% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 89.0% |
| Buffalo Bills | 90.9% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 96.3% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 98.9% |
| San Diego Chargers | 99.1% |
| Washington Redskins | 99.5% |
| New York Jets | 99.5% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 99.7% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 99.7% |
Additionally, the Jaguars and Giants have already started to see their chances of making the playoffs fall below 100% even if they win out. Jacksonville makes it in 98.6% of those scenarios whereas New York makes it 99.7% of the time they win out. So most likely either team would make the playoffs at 10-6, but there is a chance that they wouldn't.
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