Chris's World

Monday, November 4, 2013

NFL 2013 Playoff Picture: Week 9

The following is calculated assuming that all unplayed games are 0-0 ties. That is assumed to make tiebreakers work out better.

Every team in the NFL has now played at least eight games (ten teams have played nine including the undefeated Chiefs), and the race for the playoffs is now truly heating up. This weeks playoff picture features one returning team and one team that's making its first appearance of the year.

Starting things off in the AFC, New England continues to lead the East by two games over New York. Miami follows a half game behind the Jets, and Buffalo is a game and a half between the Dolphins. The Patriots and Jets are off this coming week, so New England will still have a two game lead when week 10 is done.

The Bengals continue to lead the North, but their lead is down to just two games over the Browns (the only team from the division to win this past weekend). The Ravens trail Cleveland by a half game, and the Steelers are a game behind Baltimore.

Down South, each spot is separated by two games. Indianapolis is on top, followed by Tennessee, then there's Houston, and finally Jacksonville brings up the rear.

As for the West, the Chiefs lead the Broncos by a game and a half. The Chargers are three games behind Denver, and the Raiders are a game behind San Diego.

Moving onto ranking the division leaders, everything is decided by record. Kansas City at 9-0 leads the way followed by New England at 7-2. Indianapolis (the only AFC division leader who's had their bye) is #3 at 6-2. Cincinnati has the #4 spot at 6-3.

Denver, with the second best record in the AFC, controls the first wild card position. The second spot goes to New York - the only other AFC team with a winning record. The AFC's playoff picture currently looks as such:

Over on the NFC side, it was a good week for the NFC East as each team that played won (the Giants had the week off). The Cowboys continue to lead the division and maintain a game lead over the Eagles. Philly has a half game lead over the Redskins, who in turn lead the Giants by a game.

Up North, there's a three way tie for best record between Chicago, Detroit, and Green Bay. The Packers beat the Lions who beat the Bears who beat the Packers, so the head-to-head tiebreaker doesn't solve anything. All three have defeated Minnesota once and are 2-1 in the division, so that doesn't solve things either. Moving onto common games, they're all 4-1 (with 5 more common games yet to be played), so that doesn't do it either. Chicago is 3-3 against NFC teams, Detroit is 4-2, while Green Bay is 3-2, so the Lions have the best conference record and currently have the tiebreaker edge. The Bears have the head-to-head edge over the Packers, so they are second for now. Green Bay is third, and the Vikings are fourth four games back.

New Orleans still leads the South, but their lead is now down to a game over Carolina. Atlanta is three behind the Panthers, and the 0-8 Buccaneers are two games behind the Falcons.

Out West, the Seahawks lead the 49ers by a game and a half. The Cardinals are two games behind San Francisco, and the Rams are a game and a half behind Arizona.

Seattle has the best record in the NFC and currently control the #1 seed. New Orleans are a game and a half behind in the #2 seed. Detroit is next one game back of the Saints, and Dallas is a half game behind the Lions.

Looking at the second place teams for the wild card, San Francisco has the best record and thus the first wild card position. Carolina and Chicago are tied for the next spot. Since they haven't played, conference record will decide who gets the spot. The Panthers are 5-2 in the NFC while the Bears are only 3-3, so currently Carolina has the second wild card spot. Here's the NFC's current playoff picture:

Looking ahead to next week, the only divisional lead that could change hands is that of the NFC North. Interestingly, the Bears have the best chance to lead the division. Chicago is playing Detroit, and if the Bears win, they take over the lead regardless of the outcome of the Packers game (since Chicago currently has the head-to-head tiebreaker). If the Lions beat the Bears, the lead will go to the Packers if they win (since they currently have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Detroit) otherwise the Lions will maintain control.

As for the wild cards, the only team locked in is the Broncos. The second AFC wild card will go to the Titans if they win (and they should since they're playing the Jaguars). Otherwise, it'll go to the Chargers if they win. If neither Tennessee nor San Diego win, the spot will stay with the Jets (who'll be on a bye).

On the NFC side, the winner of Carolina at San Francisco will have the first wild card spot. The second spot will be determined by the outcome of the Detroit/Chicago and Philadelphia/Green Bay games. If the Eagles beat the Packers, the loser of Carolina/San Francisco will get the second spot. Otherwise, if the Packers win, the Lions take the spot if they win. If Detroit loses, Green Bay gets the spot if the 49ers win, but the 49ers get it if they lose (since San Francisco has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Green Bay).

Sunday, November 3, 2013

My Where's George Week in Review: 10/27/13 - 11/02/13

At the start of last year, I began publishing a weekly review of my past seven days of activity in regards to Where's George. These reviews were largely focused around key goals/predictions for the year (including bills entered, bills hit, and total hits). Some of the things I tracked, in retrospect, weren't really all that interesting, and a lot of the tracking around bill entries wasn't all that useful. When one really thinks about it, Where's George is all about the hits. As such, I've revamped my weekly reviews to be focused on what was interesting about my hits in the past week, and using that data, scoring the week on a scale of 0 to 10. I'm sure as time goes on that I'll tinker with the scoring system, but I think what I have for now is good for the 1.0 version.

With that said, on a scale of 0 to 10 this past week was a:

6.7

In the past week, I got 36 hits in 4 States [AZ, CA³², LA, WA] as well as an international hit in Colmar, France. Of those hits, 4 were the 2^nd hit on the bill and the rest (32) were the initial hit on the bill. Below is a calendar view of the hits throughout the week:

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
27	28	29	30	31	01	02
4	5	6	4	8	3	6

I came into the week with a 6 day hit streak. I got a hit on every day of this week which extended the streak to 13 days.

I didn't get any hits in previously unhit counties in the past week leaving my total of counties hit at 566.

Of the States hit in the past week, 1 was in a "Sleepy" State (a "Sleepy" State is a State in which I haven't received a hit in over twelve weeks) (last hit date in parenthesis): Louisiana (06/18/2013). 21 States meet the "Sleepy" status for next week: Alaska (03/02/2010), Delaware (07/14/2011), Kentucky (10/14/2011), Rhode Island (03/04/2012), District of Columbia (09/26/2012), Tennessee (01/17/2013), Wyoming (01/17/2013), South Carolina (03/21/2013), Connecticut (03/30/2013), Nebraska (04/30/2013), Oklahoma (05/05/2013), North Dakota (05/05/2013), Maine (05/25/2013), West Virginia (05/26/2013), New Hampshire (06/22/2013), Alabama (07/08/2013), Iowa (07/15/2013), Arkansas (07/16/2013), Minnesota (08/04/2013), Utah (08/07/2013), Colorado (08/08/2013).

Of the bills hit in the past week, 10 were active for more than a year. Of those, the longest active bill from the bunch was re-entered 2 Years 193 Days 17 Hours 32 Minutes after I originally entered it. That bill is now 194^th on my all-time longest active list.

And now, the speed round of data on everything else. 3 of the hits I received in the past week were from Georgers with Profiles: D9337---1C, A3871---8B, IB508---19B. Additionally 31 of the hits contained notes. 1 of the hits were on non-Georges: $5. The hits were on bills that spread across 9 of the 12 FRBs. The FRBs for which I didn't receive hits were Philadelphia (C), Minneapolis (I), and Dallas (K). I got hits on four new combos: 2001-$1-HC, 2003A-$1-E*, 2009-$1-DE, and 2009-$1-J*.

So how did this week end up as a 6.7? To start off the calculation, I compare this week's number with the lowest and highest from the past 12 weeks and score it based on how it fits in that range - so if this week's number is midway between the low and the high, it scores a 0.5 for that category (i.e. if this week's States Hit was 10, the past 12 weeks' low was 5, and the past 12 weeks' high was 15, that'd be a 0.5). A category can be scored at a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 1.25 meaning that if this week is better than any of the past 12, bonus points are awarded. Some categories are worth more than others (in the 1.0 version, categories are worth either 1 or 2). The sum of the products of the category scores and value results in the overall score for the week. That number is then compared to the overall scores for the previous 12 weeks, and where it ends up in the range results in the week's score on a scale from 0 to 10 (so if the overall score is midway between the two, the week is a 5.0). A week cannot score below 0 or above 10.

Here's a tabular view of this week's scores:

		Past 12 Weeks
Stat	Week	Min	Max	Score	Weight	S*W
Hits that Changed States	6	5	12	0.14	2.0	0.29
Days with Hits	7	6	7	1.00	2.0	2.00
Distinct States Hit	5	4	10	0.17	2.0	0.33
Hits Beyond the 1st on a Bill ¹	4	3	15	0.08	2.0	0.17
Bills Active Over a Year ²	16.7	14.2	53.4	0.06	2.0	0.13
New Counties	0	1	4	0.00	2.0	0.00
Hits from Georgers with Profiles	3	0	5	0.60	2.0	1.20
Hits with Notes	31	19	34	0.80	2.0	1.60
International Hits	1	0	1	1.00	1.0	1.00
Hits on Non-Georges	1	0	4	0.25	1.0	0.25
Hits in "Sleepy" States	1	0	2	0.50	1.0	0.50
Distinct FRBs Hit	9	7	11	0.50	1.0	0.50
New Series/Denom/FRB/Block Combo Hit	4	0	6	0.67	1.0	0.67
* TOTAL *						8.63

¹ - The second hit on a bill is worth 1 point. Each hit thereafter doubles in value (i.e. The third is worth 2 and the fourth is worth 4.).

² - A bill active for a year is worth 1 point. Each additional year doubles in value and partial years add partial value.

The minimum overall score over the past 12 weeks was 4.93 and the maximum was 10.49 so this week's score of 8.63 resulted in a scale score of 6.7.

This week had the best scale score since I've started measuring weeks using my new formula, but that was largely due to better weeks falling off of the measurement. Oddly, this week did feel like it was a pretty good week, so I wonder if that's because it was or because the past 12 weeks have been poor in comparison? Nothing from this week set a new high for any of the categories, so next week should also be rated against a simpler scale.

Friday, November 1, 2013

My October 2013 Where's George Summary

In October, I entered 560 bills and received 133 hits (109 of which were the initial hit on the bill). I ended the month with a hit rate of 16.26% [+0.06% compared to end of September] and a slugging percentage of 19.21% [+0.09%].

Top Ten Months by Hits

May 2012

160

Apr 2013

155

Jul 2013

154

Aug 2013

146

Apr 2012

139

Jul 2012

137

Jan 2013

137

Sep 2012

136

Oct 2013

133

10.

Mar 2013

132

Top Ten Months by Entries

May 2013

1228

Sep 2013

996

Jun 2013

753

May 2012

730

Sep 2012

711

Sep 2011

675

Jun 2012

651

Oct 2011

641

May 2011

607

10.

Apr 2010

604

13.

Oct 2013

560

Not a lot of activity in the top ten entry lists this month because the majority of the bills I entered were in an effort to improve my series one dollar bingos (the effects of which will be noted below). 2009-$1-LK continues to move up on the hits list (this is expected to continue as it's my block with the most entries).

Blocks by Entries

1.	2009-$1-LK	+7	621
2.	2009-$1-LG	+5	569
3.	2006-$1-LR		560
4.	2006-$1-LL		554
5.	2006-$1-LH		512
6.	2006-$1-LG		490
7.	2009-$1-LF	+1	478
8.	2009-$1-LB	+3	461
9.	2006-$1-LN		395
10.	2006-$1-LE		381

2009 by Entries

1.	2009-$1-LK	+7	621
2.	2009-$1-LG	+5	569
3.	2009-$1-LF	+1	478
4.	2009-$1-LB	+3	461
5.	2009-$1-LJ	+3	327
6.	2009-$1-IA	+1	319
7.	2009-$1-HA		308
8.	2009-$1-LI		286
9.	2009-$1-FC	+1	277
10.	2009-$1-LE	+1	248

Blocks by Hits

1.	2006-$1-LR	+1	137
2.	2006-$1-LH		123
3.	2006-$1-LL		121
4.	2009-$1-LG	+5	112
5.	2006-$1-LG		106
6.	2009-$1-LB	+4	102
7.	2009-$1-LK	+6	95
8.	2006-$1-LN	+1	94
9.	2009-$1-LF	+3	88
10.	2006-$1-LE		81
	2006-$1-LJ		81

Washington passed Hawaii for fourth on my hits by State list. Texas should pass by Hawaii in November. Of my top ten States, only Arizona didn't receive a hit in October. There was a little bit of activity in the county and city lists. Of note, Washoe NV moved up a spot to ninth (but at 46 hits behind #8, it's unlikely to get any higher).

States

1.	CA	+97	4162
2.	NV	+8	206
3.	OR	+2	107
4.	WA	+4	101
5.	HI	+1	99
6.	TX	+2	98
7.	AZ		84
8.	NY	+3	70
9.	IL	+1	60
10.	FL	+1	50

Counties

1.	Sacramento CA	+25	1246
2.	El Dorado CA	+2	254
3.	Placer CA	+12	236
4.	Alameda CA	+8	227
5.	Santa Clara CA	+4	222
6.	Los Angeles CA		205
7.	San Francisco CA	+4	153
	Contra Costa CA	+6	153
9.	Washoe NV	+5	107
10.	San Joaquin CA	+2	106

Cities

1.	Sacramento, CA	+7	460
2.	Folsom, CA	+8	283
3.	San Francisco, CA	+4	153
4.	Rancho Cordova, CA	+3	112
5.	El Dorado Hills, CA	+1	101
6.	Roseville, CA	+4	95
7.	San Jose, CA	+2	94
8.	Elk Grove, CA		79
9.	Reno, NV	+3	78
10.	Citrus Heights, CA	+2	72

I entered four new 2009 $1 blocks in October along with a new 2003 and three 2001 blocks. I got my first hit on six 2009 blocks, one 2006 block, and two 2001 blocks.

Series 2009 $1 Bingo

A Boston

B New York

C Philadelphia

D Cleveland

E Richmond

F Atlanta

G Chicago

H St. Louis

I Minneapolis

J Kansas City

K Dallas

L San Francisco

Progress: Hits 66/88 [75.0%]; Entries 81/88 [92.0%]
New First Entries: GH [10-09-2013]; BI [10-12-2013]; EG [10-17-2013]; J* [10-20-2013];
New First Hits: BH [10-07-2013]; EC [10-08-2013]; FG [10-12-2013]; DD [10-23-2013];
DE [10-28-2013]; J* [10-28-2013];

Series 2006 $1 Bingo

A Boston

B New York

C Philadelphia

D Cleveland

E Richmond

F Atlanta

G Chicago

H St. Louis

I Minneapolis

J Kansas City

K Dallas

L San Francisco

Progress: Hits 109/112 [97.3%]; Entries 112/112 [100.0%]
New First Entries: None
New First Hits: IC [10-23-2013];

Series 2003A $1 Bingo

A Boston

B New York

C Philadelphia

D Cleveland

E Richmond

F Atlanta

G Chicago

H St. Louis

I Minneapolis

J Kansas City

K Dallas

L San Francisco

Progress: Hits 84/93 [90.3%]; Entries 93/93 [100.0%]
New First Entries: None
New First Hits: None

Series 2003 $1 Bingo

A Boston

B New York

C Philadelphia

D Cleveland

E Richmond

F Atlanta

G Chicago

H St. Louis

I Minneapolis

J Kansas City

K Dallas

L San Francisco

Progress: Hits 58/87 [66.7%]; Entries 84/87 [96.6%]
New First Entries: B* [10-09-2013];
New First Hits: None

Series 2001 $1 Bingo

A Boston

B New York

C Philadelphia

D Cleveland

E Richmond

F Atlanta

G Chicago

H St. Louis

I Minneapolis

J Kansas City

K Dallas

L San Francisco

Progress: Hits 33/63 [52.4%]; Entries 61/63 [96.8%]
New First Entries: G* [10-09-2013]; C* [10-16-2013]; KD [10-27-2013];
New First Hits: CF [10-11-2013]; HC [10-30-2013];

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Rankings & What's Next: UFC Heavyweights

Every Wednesday for the past eight weeks, I've taken the rankings from UFC.com, Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly, combined them, and used the combined rankings to determine who got the next title shot and who participated in the next #1 contender's match based on a set of rules (rules will be listed below). For the next eight weeks, I'm going to go back through all of the men's divisions (Sherdog and MMA Weekly have a pound-for-pound list for woman but not an explicit women's bantamweight list, so I'm skipping that division for now) taking a look at the fights that have occurred since my last post, how the rankings have changed, and then take a look ahead.

My previous post on the UFC Heavyweights can be found here.

Here's what's happened in the division in the past eight weeks:

Cain Velasquez defeated Junior Dos Santos at UFC 166 to retain the title
Daniel Cormier defeated Roy Nelson at UFC 166
Gabriel Gonzaga defeated Shawn Jordan at UFC 166
Brendan Schaub defeated Matt Mitrione at UFC 165
Daniel Omielanczuk defeated Nandor Guelmino at UFC 165

The combined rankings for the division are now as such:

Combined Rankings

		UFC			Fight Matrix		Sherdog		MMA Weekly
Last Update:		10/28/2013			10/27/2013		10/28/2013		10/27/2013
1.	Cain Velasquez		1	(0)		1		1		1
2.	Junior Dos Santos		2	(1)		2		2		2
3.	Daniel Cormier		3	(2)		3		4		3
4.	Fabricio Werdum		4	(3)		5		3		4
5.	Antonio Silva		5	(4)		4		5		5
6.	Josh Barnett		7	(6)		7		6		6
7.	Travis Browne		6	(5)		6		9		7
8.	Frank Mir		9	(8)		10		7		8
9.	Alistair Overeem		8	(7)		8				9
10.	Mark Hunt					9				10
	Antonio Nogueira							8
	Stipe Miocic		10	(9)
	Gabriel Gonzaga							10

The only change in rankings in the past eight weeks was a swapping of positions by Frank Mir and Alistair Overeem with the main reason for the swap being that the Sherdog rankings were stale (nearly a month old) last go round and didn't include Overeem's loss to Browne.

The division has a bit of a problem on it's hand as Dos Santos has now lost twice convincingly to Cain and is unlikely to get another shot although he is the consensus #2 in the division. As such, Junior is likely to play the role of spoiler for the next couple years knocking guys off track on their way to title shots. Going to be interesting to see how the UFC chooses to use him. Unfortunately, he's likely too large to attempt a drop to light heavyweight.

My rules for determining who gets the next title shot and who fights to be the next #1 contender:

The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.

Matches I'd Make

Starting off with the title, I'd make the same match that I would eight weeks ago: Cain Velasquez defending against Daniel Cormier (as with eight weeks ago, I know that they are teammates that have said that they won't fight and that Cormier is dropping down to light heavyweight - regardless, this is the title fight to make based on my rules). Fabricio Werdum would be matched against Josh Barnett to determine the #1 contendership. The only other fighter in the top ten coming off of a win is Travis Browne. I'd set him up against Stipe Miocic who's just outside the top ten. As for those coming off of losses, I'd match up the two most recent title challengers to get one back on the win column: Junior Dos Santos and Antonio Silva. Neither is likely to get another crack at Cain soon (Silva has a worse argument than Dos Santos to ever get another rematch) so pairing them up prevents either from doing an actual contender harm. I'd set up Frank Mir and Alistair Overeem to do battle (mostly to see which one is beyond washed up). As for Mark Hunt, I'd match him against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Looking just outside the top ten, Gabriel Gonzaga has heated up as of late. With no one available above him in the rankings, I'd give him a chance to avenge his loss to Brendan Schaub.

Matches the UFC has Made

Velasquez versus Werdum has been stated to be the next title fight at heavyweight, but it hasn't been officially set up yet. Big Foot is set to go to battle against Hunt at UFC Fight Night in Australia in December. Browne is going to lock horns with Barnett at the last PPV of the year (UFC 168). Mir and Overeem will face off at the annual Super Bowl PPV in February.

Matches I'd Add to the UFC's

From the combined top ten, only Dos Santos and Cormier lack opponents. If I accept the fact that Daniel is moving down, that just leaves Junior. Based on the beating he took just a week and a half ago, I think it's fair to leave him on the sidelines for now and see how the Silva/Hunt and Browne/Barnett fights in December turn out. If Big Foot loses, I'd say give him to Dos Santos otherwise Junior takes on the Browne/Barnett loser.

The lack of depth in the heavyweight division is going to hurt in the future, but the division will likely be okay for title challengers in 2014 if they just need two: Werdum and then the winner of Browne/Barnett. It will be interesting to see if the UFC chooses to wait for the next title fight until Memorial Day weekend since this last title fight was earlier in the year than usual.

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

2013 NFL Playoff Possibilities: Week 8

The following percentages were calculated by "playing out" the remaining games of the season via coinflip with one caveat: for each set of simulations, one team is picked to win out while another is picked to lose out. Each combo is used an equal number of times. Using the "win out"/"lose out" teams gives information on which teams are starting to have their playoff chances fade away (i.e. those teams that don't always make the playoffs when they win out) and which teams are locking up a spot (i.e. those teams that make the playoffs even if they lose out).

AFC East
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Buffalo Bills	7.3%	11.5%	-3.6%	-5.6%
Miami Dolphins	10.7%	18.9%	-8.4%	-10.3%
New England Patriots	65.8%	76.1%	+20.6%	+16.5%
New York Jets	16.2%	26.5%	-8.6%	-11.4%

It was another good week for the Patriots in which they defeated a division rival and watched as the other two teams in the division lost. Only one other team saw their division winning and playoff making percentages jump by double digits (Bengals). None of the other teams in the division are dead yet, but the Grim Reaper is closing in.

AFC North
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Baltimore Ravens	16.3%	22.7%	-1.2%	-0.9%
Cincinnati Bengals	66.3%	76.4%	+12.3%	+10.8%
Cleveland Browns	9.8%	14.3%	-6.4%	-9.4%
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.6%	10.8%	-4.6%	-7.1%

Other than Cincinnati's three win, the other teams in the division have only combined for one win in the past three weeks, and that win belongs to Pittsburgh. Baltimore and Cleveland have fallen off of the edge of the world, although perhaps a bit of slack could be given to the Ravens who were off this past weekend. Like the East, no teams are out of it in this division, so they'll hit that designation soon.

AFC South
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Houston Texans	12.4%	15.0%	+0.2%	+0.2%
Indianapolis Colts	67.0%	71.8%	+0.9%	+0.8%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.2%	1.4%	-1.4%	-1.7%
Tennessee Titans	19.4%	26.5%	+0.3%	+0.0%

A few weeks ago, this division had the best three way race for the lead, but now the Colts are running away with things. All three of the "top" teams were off this past weekend, and the Texans and Titans will need to return well-rested from the break if they want to make up ground. The Jags are off this weekend (they seem to be off every weekend honestly) and can prep to go 0-8 for the final eight.

AFC West
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Denver Broncos	33.4%	83.5%	+1.1%	+8.0%
Kansas City Chiefs	57.4%	93.0%	+1.5%	+4.6%
Oakland Raiders	2.2%	17.9%	-0.4%	+5.3%
San Diego Chargers	7.0%	33.7%	-2.1%	+0.2%

Oakland won and San Diego was off, but even still, both saw their odds of winning the division decrease as Kansas City and Denver improved to 8-0 and 7-1 respectively. As of now, we could be seeing both wild cards come out of this division.

NFC East
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Dallas Cowboys	54.7%	58.2%	-0.1%	-5.1%
New York Giants	10.2%	11.4%	+4.5%	+4.3%
Philadelphia Eagles	20.6%	24.8%	-3.8%	-9.1%
Washington Redskins	14.4%	15.9%	-0.6%	-3.6%

Another bad week for the NFC East with only the Giants picking up a win (against division rival Philadelphia). The Cowboys would have a commanding lead if they hadn't blown leads against the Broncos and Lions. Although they currently statistically have the worst chance, I almost fear that New York is really the favorite to win this division.

NFC North
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Chicago Bears	21.9%	35.0%	-4.8%	-5.1%
Detroit Lions	29.8%	51.1%	+2.8%	+7.3%
Green Bay Packers	46.8%	62.3%	+5.8%	+7.1%
Minnesota Vikings	1.5%	3.9%	-3.8%	-3.7%

Home of the best three team race in the NFL, Green Bay has the opportunity to bury Chicago this Monday at home. At this point, the Minnesota is all but done.

NFC South
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Atlanta Falcons	5.4%	11.5%	-4.7%	-9.6%
Carolina Panthers	23.7%	43.5%	+2.4%	+6.8%
New Orleans Saints	70.4%	84.3%	+4.7%	+4.0%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.5%	2.5%	-2.3%	-2.3%

Of all teams, the Saints have the largest lead in their division, but the Panthers have started to move forward in the past few weeks and have become part of the wild card conversation. The Buccaneers, who have one less loss than the Jaguars, are the most dead of any team in the NFL.

NFC West
	Division	Playoffs	Division Δ	Playoffs Δ
Arizona Cardinals	4.5%	24.8%	-0.4%	+5.5%
San Francisco 49ers	28.5%	72.6%	+0.5%	+7.0%
Seattle Seahawks	64.4%	88.4%	+6.3%	+6.2%
St. Louis Rams	2.5%	10.0%	-6.3%	-9.8%

Seattle has won a couple of games on the road that they "should" have lost (against Carolina and St. Louis), and those types of wins are the ones that bring about championships. Things are still strongly indicating that the top wild card team will come out of this division.

There are 19 teams that might not win their division even if they were to win out from here. Of those teams, five may not even make the playoffs if they win out. The Buccaneers have the worst shot at winning their division but have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Jaguars.

	Div Win	Playoffs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13.6%	71.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars	30.2%	34.9%
Minnesota Vikings	41.6%	94.3%
St. Louis Rams	48.9%	99.8%
Oakland Raiders	53.7%	100.0%
Arizona Cardinals	70.0%	100.0%
Atlanta Falcons	81.2%	100.0%
Buffalo Bills	83.1%	99.9%
Pittsburgh Steelers	92.7%	100.0%
Cleveland Browns	92.8%	100.0%
New York Jets	93.0%	100.0%
New York Giants	93.7%	99.8%
Miami Dolphins	97.1%	100.0%
San Diego Chargers	98.1%	100.0%
Houston Texans	99.0%	100.0%
Washington Redskins	99.1%	100.0%
Philadelphia Eagles	99.1%	100.0%
Detroit Lions	99.6%	100.0%
San Francisco 49ers	99.9%	100.0%

The NFL's top team (the Kansas City Chiefs) have started to lock up their playoff spot. Even if Kansas City lost out from here, they'd still make the playoffs 0.7% of the team. Granted that's not much, but it's interesting that they're already starting to show up in this category.