My Where's George Week in Review: 12/02/12 - 12/08/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 37 hits in 6 States [CA²⁹, HI², NV³, NY, OR, VA]. I still have hits in 44 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 479 counties with none new this week.

Of those 37 hits, 7 were the 2^nd hit on the bill and the rest (30) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 1 Year 270 Days 1 Hour 34 Minutes after I originally entered it.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
02	03	04	05	06	07	08
8	5	6	4	3	7	4

With another 7 days of hits, my current hit streak is at 63 days which is good for my third best hit streak all time. Second best is 79 days, so this steak has quite a ways to go to move up.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, it was a great week for hits although my entries were a tad light:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	22527	22612	85	5892	21720	95.6	21406	-11	+1206
Bills with Hits	2430	3607	3637	30	1207	3445	19.4	3381	+11	+256
Total Hits	2799	4207	4244	37	1445	4030	23.5	3953	+13	+291

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.62% [+1.33%].

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	19732	19812	80	5385	18959	77	19768	+3	+44
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6288 entries this year rather than 5000						20083	76.5	19727	+4	+85

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, this goal has long been completed, and 2009 continues to race ahead:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3883	3886	3	283		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	39	2669	+11	+642
2009	1339	4880	4933	53	3594		Actual	50	3311

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", four of the seven held steady or improved. The three that regressed didn't by much:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	10792	47.91%	10824	47.87%	< 50.0%	49.94%	11259	+435
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	769	3.41%	772	3.41%	> 2.8%	2.85%	648	+124
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	799	3.55%	803	3.55%	> 2.4%	2.45%	558	+245
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	729	3.24%	729	3.22%	> 2.3%	2.35%	534	+195
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	648	2.88%	648	2.87%	> 2.2%	2.25%	509	+139
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	600	2.66%	600	2.65%	> 2.1%	2.15%	488	+112
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	554	2.46%	557	2.46%	> 1.7%	1.75%	397	+160

It was quite a good week for hits although there wasn't as much State diversity as usual. I hope the hits per day rate can stay at this level throughout December.

NFL Playoff Possibilities: Week Thirteen

Another week of the season is in the books, and the first few teams have clinched playoff spots as well as their respective divisions. A few more teams have joined the Chiefs in the eliminated from contention status. I've reformatted this data to be broken out by division. Keep in mind that these numbers are calculated by looping through all of the teams and setting one team to win out, one to lose out, and the rest of the games are determined randomly.

AFC East
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
New England Patriots	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	5.1%	12.5%
Buffalo Bills	36%	0%	0%	0%	4.3%	0.0%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Miami Dolphins	41%	0%	0%	0%	4.3%	0.0%	-16.1%	-11.9%
New York Jets	40%	0%	0%	0%	4.4%	0.0%	-1.0%	-0.2%

The Patriots clinched the division with their victory over the Dolphins this past weekend. The rest of the division is still alive albeit barely. It's pretty much going to take winning out for any of the Bills, Dolphins, or Jets to make it, and even that may not be enough.

AFC North
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Baltimore Ravens	100%	100%	93%	21%	99.3%	86.9%	-0.4%	-6.3%
Cincinnati Bengals	100%	49%	0%	0%	45.3%	7.2%	9.0%	4.1%
Pittsburgh Steelers	100%	32%	0%	0%	52.6%	5.9%	12.5%	2.2%
Cleveland Browns	8%	0%	0%	0%	0.8%	0.0%	-0.4%	0.0%

The Ravens loss to the Steelers this past weekend hurt them a bit, but they're still close to locking up a playoff spot and are still far in the lead for winning the division. The Bengals and Steelers are lurking, and both are guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win out (they still have a head-to-head game, so both can't win out). The Browns are probably done, but could still make it in by winning out and getting a miracle.

AFC South
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Houston Texans	100%	100%	100%	26%	100.0%	88.6%	0.0%	1.4%
Indianapolis Colts	100%	75%	11%	0%	87.1%	11.4%	7.6%	-1.4%
Tennessee Titans	9%	0%	0%	0%	0.9%	0.0%	-6.2%	0.0%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Houston locked up a playoff position but still has to do more to win the division. The Colts are working their way into locking up a playoff position. The Jaguars have joined the eliminated teams, and the Titans win probably join that crew soon.

AFC West
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Denver Broncos	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	0.2%	0.3%
San Diego Chargers	11%	0%	0%	0%	1.0%	0.0%	-8.7%	-0.3%
Kansas City Chiefs	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Oakland Raiders	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	-1.1%	0.0%

The Broncos have locked up the West while Oakland has joined Kansas City in the "land of the lost". The Chargers are still slightly relevant but perhaps for not much longer.

NFC East
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
New York Giants	100%	100%	0%	0%	63.4%	44.1%	-15.1%	-23.0%
Washington Redskins	100%	93%	0%	0%	36.6%	27.8%	13.1%	10.5%
Dallas Cowboys	99%	93%	0%	0%	32.8%	28.0%	14.2%	14.3%
Philadelphia Eagles	>0%	>0%	0%	0%	>0.0%	>0.0%	-1.8%	-1.8%

All of the NFC East teams are still alive and could win the division, but it's highly unlikely that the Eagles will do either. The other three are pretty much guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win out. I'd be surprised if more than one of the NFC East teams makes the playoffs.

NFC North
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Green Bay Packers	100%	100%	2%	0%	83.0%	56.2%	16.3%	22.3%
Chicago Bears	100%	100%	>0%	0%	78.3%	36.8%	-5.6%	-14.7%
Minnesota Vikings	99%	58%	0%	0%	19.0%	7.0%	-15.3%	-7.6%
Detroit Lions	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.2%	0.0%	-2.2%	0.0%

All of the NFC North teams are also alive, although the Lions can't win the division and are a playoff long shot (although not as long as the Eagles). The second place win will likely capture a wild card spot.

NFC South
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Atlanta Falcons	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	0.3%	3.8%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	91%	0%	0%	0%	15.7%	0.0%	-13.6%	-3.3%
New Orleans Saints	60%	0%	0%	0%	5.7%	0.0%	-9.2%	-0.6%
Carolina Panthers	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The South has the NFC's only guaranteed and eliminated teams. The Falcons have wrapped up the division and are working towards guaranteeing home field advantage through the playoffs. The Panthers are out of it. The Bucs and Saints hurt their chances with losses in week 13 but are still viable wild card possibilities.

NFC West
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
San Francisco 49ers	100%	100%	26%	7%	92.3%	76.8%	-2.5%	-10.5%
Seattle Seahawks	100%	87%	>0%	0%	59.1%	20.6%	18.9%	10.6%
St. Louis Rams	95%	24%	0%	0%	13.4%	2.6%	5.0%	0.3%
Arizona Cardinals	4%	0%	0%	0%	0.4%	0.0%	-2.5%	-0.5%

The Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks could all still win this division. The Niners took a slight step back with their loss to St. Louis this weekend, but they are still by far the favorite. Seattle continues to improve their hold on a wild card spot.

NFL Playoff Picture: Week Thirteen

For the first time since week 9, the AFC playoff picture has changed (although only slightly). The NFC picture was pretty calm also. With four weeks to go, moving into a playoff position is getting more urgent.

Starting things off with the AFC East, the Patriots traveled to Miami and defeated the Dolphins to clinch the division. In the North, the Steelers were able to hold off the Ravens even though they were starting their third string quarterback to knock one game out of Baltimore's lead. The Ravens now lead the North by two games. In the South, the Texans and Colts both won, and so Houston's lead is stuck at three. And out west, the Broncos won while the Chargers fell, and that clinched the division for Denver.

In the Wild Card, the aforementioned Colts rallied from 12 down with less than 2 minutes to defeat the Lions and retain the #5 seed. The Steelers also held onto the #6 seed with their victory over the Ravens. The Bengals defeated the Chargers to remain even record-wise with Pittsburgh but are still behind on the tiebreaker.

Houston still leads the race for the AFC #1 seed by two games. The Patriots, Ravens, and Broncos are all tied at 8-3. New England has the best conference record of the three and is currently the #2. Baltimore has a better conference record than Denver, and so the Ravens are the #3 while the Broncos are the #4. Interestingly, the Ravens have the most control getting the #2 seed since they have a head-to-head victory over the Patriots and a week 15 game against the Broncos. Here's the current AFC playoff picture:

On the NFC side, the Giants lost to the Redskins on Monday Night Football and saw their divisional lead fall to just one game in the East. In the North, the Bears faltered while the Packers prevailed moving Green Bay back into the divisional lead by having the head-to-head victory (these two will face off again in week 15). Down South, the Falcons defeated the division rival Saints while the Buccaneers lost to the Broncos. These combined locked up the division for Atlanta. In the West, the 49ers lost to the Rams while the Seahawks won, and so San Francisco's lead is down to 1.5 games.

As for the NFC Wild Cards, Chicago fell into the #5 seed with their drop from the divisional lead. Seattle retained the #6 seed with their win and improved their odds of moving up. Four teams are tied at 6-6 and one game back.

The Falcons now have a 1.5 game lead for the top NFC seed. San Francisco is still holding onto the #2, but their lead is down to just a half game. Green Bay is the #3 leading the Giants (#4) by one game. Thus making the NFC playoff picture:

Looking forward to week 14, none of the AFC division leaders can be overtaken. Additionally, Indianapolis will be the #5 regardless of outcome. Thus, the only spot up for grabs is the #6 seed which will stay with the Steelers unless they lose and Cincinnati wins in which case the Bengals take cover. Pittsburgh is hosting San Diego, so things are not looking good for Cincinnati to take over.

The Falcons and 49ers will still be leading their respective divisions after week 14. The Packers will hold onto the lead in the North unless they lose and the Bears win in which case Chicago takes over. In the East, the Giants keep the lead if they win or if both the Redskins and Cowboys lose. If New York loses and both Washington and Dallas win, the Redskins take the lead. Otherwise, if the 'Boys win and the other two lose, Dallas takes the lead.

One of the NFC Wild Card spots will go to the non-North leader between the Packers and Bears. The other goes to Seattle if they win. Otherwise, it goes to the Redskins if Washington and New York both win. Otherwise, it goes to the Giants, if they lose, the Redskins lose, but the Cowboys win. If none of those scenarios comes true, the spot will stay with the Seahawks.

My Where's George Week in Review: 11/25/12 - 12/01/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 32 hits in 7 States [AZ, CA²², FL, NV³, NY, OR², PA] as well as an international hit in Slough, United Kingdom. I still have hits in 44 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 479 counties with 1 new this week: Martin FL.

Of those 32 hits, 7 were the 2^nd hit on the bill and the rest (25) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 2 Years 361 Days 14 Hours 48 Minutes after I originally entered it.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
25	26	27	28	29	30	01
3	6	8	2	6	6	1

Seven more days with hits extends my current hit streak to 56 days: good for my 4th longest streak all-time.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, it was a good week for all three stats:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	22419	22527	108	5807	21720	95.6	21310	+12	+1217
Bills with Hits	2430	3582	3607	25	1177	3445	19.4	3362	+6	+245
Total Hits	2799	4175	4207	32	1408	4030	23.5	3929	+8	+278

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.59% [+1.30%]. Will be hard to not successfully complete this goal at this point.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	19627	19732	105	5305	18959	97.9	19690	+7	+42
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6326 entries this year rather than 5000						20116	97.1	19649	+8	+83

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, I'm just 3 bills shy of having entered 1000 more 2009s than 2003As:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3878	3883	5	280		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	49	2631	+17	+630
2009	1339	4809	4880	71	3541		Actual	66	3261

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", all either held steady or went the wrong way, but still not by enough to be a problem:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	10731	47.87%	10792	47.91%	< 50.0%	49.94%	11219	+427
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	767	3.42%	769	3.41%	> 2.8%	2.85%	646	+123
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	795	3.55%	799	3.55%	> 2.4%	2.45%	555	+244
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	727	3.24%	729	3.24%	> 2.3%	2.35%	532	+197
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	646	2.88%	648	2.88%	> 2.2%	2.25%	507	+141
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	598	2.67%	600	2.66%	> 2.1%	2.15%	486	+114
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	554	2.47%	554	2.46%	> 1.7%	1.75%	396	+158

It was a good week for hits and a nice finish to November which ended with 130 hits for my 5th best month for hits all-time.

NFL Playoff Possibilities: Week Twelve

Week 12 of the NFL season is done, and we now have our first "eliminated" team: the Kansas City Chiefs can no longer make the playoffs. There are now 7 teams (up from 3 last week) that can no longer win their division. No team has yet fully secured a playoff birth (although Houston is very close).

As a reminder, these numbers are generated by "playing" out the rest of the season using the following logic: one team is chosen to win out while another is chosen to lose out and the rest of the games are decided at random. I do a number of simulations for each auto-winner/auto-loser combo and report back the results here.

---

Starting off with the "win out" playoff percentages, there are nine teams that are guaranteed to win their division if they win their remaining five games:

• Atlanta
• Baltimore
• Chicago
• Denver
• Green Bay
• Houston
• New England
• New York Giants
• San Francisco

Additionally, there are five teams that are guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win out (division winning percentage in parenthesis):

• Cincinnati (31%)
• Indianapolis (87%)
• Minnesota (93%)
• Pittsburgh (31%)
• Seattle (67%)

Additionally there are two teams whose "making the playoffs percentage" rounds up to 100% (these team could miss the playoffs if they win out, but it's highly unlikely):

• Tampa Bay (31%)
• Washington (93%).

Next up we have the teams with an above 90% shot at making the playoffs if they win out (playoff making percentage followed by division winning percentage in parenthesis):

• Miami (99%, 87%)
• Dallas (98%, 80%)
• St. Louis (94%, 28%)
• New Orleans (99%, 9%)
• San Diego (91%, 6%)

Following those teams are the teams that make the playoffs at least 50% of the time if they win out:

• Tennessee (79%, 0%)
• New York Jets (62%, 4%)
• Buffalo (59%, 6%)

These next teams are more likely than not to miss the playoffs, but they aren't out of it yet:

• Arizona (43%, 7%)
• Detroit (37%, 0%)
• Philadelphia (26%, 25%)
• Cleveland (20%, 0%)
• Oakland (19%, 0%)

And finally, the two teams that are pretty much dead but with a miracle could make the postseason:

• Jacksonville (0.8%, 0%)
• Carolina (0.2%, 0%)

As I mentioned at the top, Kansas City is the only team completely out of the picture.

---

Moving onto the numbers for teams that are starting to "lock up" a playoff spot (those teams that make the playoffs some percentage of the time when they "lose out"), there are ten teams now on this list, although four of those teams make the playoffs while losing out less than 1% of the time (so it's not very likely):

• Houston (99.8%, 13%)
• Baltimore (96%, 37%)
• Denver (96%, 94%)
• Atlanta (96%, 62%)
• New England (36%, 16%)
• San Francisco (29%, 16%)
• Indianapolis (0.6%, 0%)
• Chicago (0.3%, 0%)
• New York Giants (0.2%, 0.2%)
• Green Bay (>0.0%, 0%)

There's a good chance that there'll be at least a few teams locked in after week 13.

---

And finally, here's the data concatenated from all of the above simulations showing (in descending order) what percentage of the time each team makes the playoffs and wins their divisions along with the change since last week. This shows relatively who's most and least likely to make the playoffs/win their division and who is improving/decreasing their odds:

			Division	Playoffs	Div Δ	PO Δ
1.	AFC South	Houston Texans	87.2%	<100.0%	1.7%	0.8%
2.	AFC West	Denver Broncos	99.7%	99.8%	5.8%	4.6%
3.	AFC North	Baltimore Ravens	93.2%	99.7%	10.0%	3.6%
4.	NFC South	Atlanta Falcons	96.2%	99.7%	13.7%	5.5%
5.	AFC East	New England Patriots	87.5%	94.9%	6.1%	6.1%
6.	NFC West	San Francisco 49ers	87.4%	94.8%	15.2%	10.6%
7.	NFC North	Chicago Bears	51.6%	83.9%	19.8%	18.4%
8.	AFC South	Indianapolis Colts	12.8%	79.5%	-0.9%	19.1%
9.	NFC East	New York Giants	67.2%	78.5%	17.8%	18.3%
10.	NFC North	Green Bay Packers	33.8%	66.7%	-8.6%	-5.5%
11.	NFC West	Seattle Seahawks	10.0%	40.2%	-12.4%	-6.0%
12.	AFC North	Pittsburgh Steelers	3.7%	40.0%	-9.3%	-14.3%
13.	AFC North	Cincinnati Bengals	3.1%	36.3%	-0.7%	12.8%
14.	NFC North	Minnesota Vikings	14.6%	34.3%	-10.8%	-8.1%
15.	NFC South	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.3%	29.3%	-10.4%	-9.4%
16.	NFC East	Washington Redskins	17.3%	23.6%	3.2%	7.5%
17.	AFC East	Miami Dolphins	11.9%	20.5%	1.9%	6.1%
18.	NFC East	Dallas Cowboys	13.7%	18.6%	-17.2%	-16.1%
19.	NFC South	New Orleans Saints	0.6%	14.9%	-3.3%	-7.5%
20.	AFC West	San Diego Chargers	0.3%	9.7%	-3.2%	-8.8%
21.	NFC West	St. Louis Rams	2.2%	8.5%	0.1%	3.7%
22.	AFC South	Tennessee Titans	0.0%	7.1%	-0.8%	-7.0%
23.	AFC East	New York Jets	0.2%	5.4%	-5.6%	-9.6%
24.	AFC East	Buffalo Bills	0.3%	4.6%	-2.4%	-8.0%
25.	NFC West	Arizona Cardinals	0.5%	2.8%	-2.9%	-4.4%
26.	NFC North	Detroit Lions	0.0%	2.3%	-0.3%	-3.0%
27.	NFC East	Philadelphia Eagles	1.8%	1.9%	-3.9%	-4.0%
28.	AFC North	Cleveland Browns	0.0%	1.2%	0.0%	0.2%
29.	AFC West	Oakland Raiders	0.0%	1.1%	-2.4%	-5.4%
30.	AFC South	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.0%	>0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
31.	NFC South	Carolina Panthers	0.0%	>0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
32.	AFC West	Kansas City Chiefs	0.0%	0.0%	-0.2%	-0.2%

NFL Playoff Picture: Week Twelve

Week 12 of the NFL season is in the books, and once again, there wasn't a lot of change in the playoff picture. Time is running out on teams on the outside looking in.

In the AFC, all of the division leaders currently have at least a three game lead with five games to go. The Patriots lead the Dolphins in the East, the Ravens lead the Steelers and Bengals in the North, and the Texans lead the Colts in the South. The Broncos lead the Chargers in the West, but Denver has a four (rather than three) game lead. It's highly unlikely that even of the AFC's division leaders will get toppled at this point.

Indianapolis leads the wild card race in the AFC by virtue of having the best non-division leading record. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are tied for the last spot, and the Steelers currently have the tiebreaker based on have won their head-to-head match-up.

Houston has the top spot based on best record. Baltimore has the second spot for the same reason. New England and Denver are tied at 8-3 for the third spot, and since the Patriots beat the Broncos this season, they get the spot. The AFC playoff picture is currently:

On the NFC side, the Giants now have a two game lead over the Cowboys and Redskins. The Bears have reclaimed the lead in the North by one game over the Packers. The Falcons extended their lead in the South to four games over the Buccaneers with their win in Tampa Bay. And the 49ers lead the Seahawks by 2.5 games in the West.

Green Bay has the top wild card spot by having the best non-division leading record. Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Seattle are all tied at 6-5 in the battle for the second wild card spot. The Seahawks currently have the spot based on tiebreakers: the Vikings gets eliminated since they lost to both teams; Seattle edges Tampa Bay based on conference record. Any of those three teams could have improved their position with a win.

The NFC divisional leaders can all be ranked by record. Atlanta's at the top leading San Francisco by 1.5 games. The Niners have a half game lead on Chicago, and the Bears have a one game lead on New York. The NFC playoff picture is:

Five of the six playoff spots in the AFC are locked up through next week: all of the divisional leaders and the Colts are safe. The final playoff spot is up for grabs. The Steelers will keep it with a win. If Pittsburgh loses, the Bengals take it if they win. And if both of those teams lose, Miami moves into the spot with a win. If all three of those teams win, Pittsburgh retains the spot.

On the NFC side, all of the divisional leaders will still be in the picture next week (the Bears could lose their division lead but would fall into a wild card spot). The wild card picture is a bit more messy. It's a lot easier to digest if we start with the Packers/Vikings game:

• If the Packers win, the top wild card spot will go to either Chicago or Green Bay (whichever of the two isn't leading the North: the Bears will still be on top if they win). The second spot goes to the first team on this list that wins: Seahawks, Buccaneers, Redskins, Saints, then Cowboys. If all five of those teams lose, Seattle retains the spot.
• If the Vikings win, Seattle and Tampa Bay get the first crack at the wild card spots. If either of those teams lose, Minnesota takes a wild card spot. If both lose, Green Bay takes the final wild card spot.

My Where's George Week in Review: 11/18/12 - 11/24/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 22 hits in 5 States [CA¹⁸, ID, LA, OR, TX]. I still have hits in 44 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I still have hits in 478 counties with none new this week.

Of those 22 hits, 6 were the 2^nd hit on the bill and the rest (16) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 2 Years 64 Days 10 Hours 27 Minutes after I originally entered it.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
18	19	20	21	22	23	24
4	5	2	2	4	4	1

7 more days of hits brings my current hit streak to 49 (my sixth longest all-time).

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, all of these stats were below expectation for the week but I'm still way ahead on the year:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	22351	22419	68	5699	21720	95.6	21215	-28	+1204
Bills with Hits	2430	3566	3582	16	1152	3445	19.4	3342	-3	+240
Total Hits	2799	4153	4175	22	1376	4030	23.5	3906	-2	+269

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.55% [+1.26%]. I'm feeling pretty comfortable that I won't be erasing the buffer I've built up for this goal:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	19562	19627	65	5200	18959	61.6	19593	+3	+34
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6340 entries this year rather than 5000						20128	61.1	19552	+4	+75

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, it wasn't a good week for this goal, but there's no way that 2003A will surge back into the lead at this point:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3874	3878	4	275		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	31	2582	-7	+613
2009	1339	4781	4809	28	3470		Actual	24	3195

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", every FRB held steady or moved in the right direction expect Minneapolis which only slightly went the wrong way:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	10701	47.88%	10731	47.87%	< 50.0%	49.94%	11169	+438
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	764	3.42%	767	3.42%	> 2.8%	2.85%	642	+125
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	789	3.53%	795	3.55%	> 2.4%	2.45%	552	+243
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	722	3.23%	727	3.24%	> 2.3%	2.35%	529	+198
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	644	2.88%	646	2.88%	> 2.2%	2.25%	505	+141
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	598	2.68%	598	2.67%	> 2.1%	2.15%	483	+115
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	552	2.47%	554	2.47%	> 1.7%	1.75%	394	+160

This week was no where near as good as last week for hits, and it's unlikely I've have a massive hit week until next year as hits seem to decrease around the holidays. On the plus side, the holidays provide good opportunities for my bills to travel.