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Sunday, October 6, 2013

My Where's George Week in Review: 09/29/13 - 10/05/13

My Where's George Week in Review: 09/29/13 - 10/05/13

At the start of last year, I began publishing a weekly review of my past seven days of activity in regards to Where's George. These reviews were largely focused around key goals/predictions for the year (including bills entered, bills hit, and total hits). Some of the things I tracked, in retrospect, weren't really all that interesting, and a lot of the tracking around bill entries wasn't all that useful. When one really thinks about it, Where's George is all about the hits. As such, I've revamped my weekly reviews to be focused on what was interesting about my hits in the past week, and using that data, scoring the week on a scale of 0 to 10. I'm sure as time goes on that I'll tinker with the scoring system, but I think what I have for now is good for the 1.0 version.

With that said, on a scale of 0 to 10 this past week was a:

1.6


In the past week, I got 30 hits in 10 States [AZ, CA19, ID, MD, MT, NC, NV2, NY, OH, OR2]. Of those hits, 6 were the 2nd hit on the bill and the rest (24) were the initial hit on the bill. Below is a calendar view of the hits throughout the week:

SundayMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturday
29300102030405
5624535

I came into the week with a 27 day hit streak. I got a hit on every day of this week which extended the streak to 34 days: good for a tie for my 10th longest streak all-time. Here's a look at my all-time ten longest hit streaks:

RankStart DateEnd DateDaysRankStart DateEnd DateDays
1.05/12/201308/16/2013976.07/28/201109/23/201158
2.10/07/201201/02/2013887.09/26/201111/18/201154
3.02/08/201305/05/2013878.06/24/201208/16/201254
4.12/28/201103/17/2012819.04/04/201205/21/201248
5.04/13/201106/30/20117910.01/04/201302/06/201334

Additionally in the past week I received my first hit in 2 counties bringing my total of counties hit to 560. The newly hit counties were Gallatin MT and Nash NC.

Of the States hit in the past week, 2 were in "Sleepy" States (a "Sleepy" State is a State in which I haven't received a hit in over twelve weeks) (last hit date in parenthesis): Maryland (05/21/2013), North Carolina (12/28/2012). 18 States meet the "Sleepy" status for next week: Alaska (03/02/2010), Delaware (07/14/2011), Kentucky (10/14/2011), Vermont (11/27/2011), Rhode Island (03/04/2012), District of Columbia (09/26/2012), Tennessee (01/17/2013), Wyoming (01/17/2013), South Carolina (03/21/2013), Connecticut (03/30/2013), Nebraska (04/30/2013), Oklahoma (05/05/2013), North Dakota (05/05/2013), Maine (05/25/2013), West Virginia (05/26/2013), Louisiana (06/18/2013), New Hampshire (06/22/2013), Alabama (07/08/2013).

Of the bills hit in the past week, 9 were active for more than a year. Of those, the longest active bill from the bunch was re-entered 3 Years 287 Days 12 Hours 27 Minutes after I originally entered it. That bill is now 37th on my all-time longest active list.

And now, the speed round of data on everything else. 2 of the hits I received in the past week were from Georgers with Profiles: L6310---1I, E4258---6A. Additionally 28 of the hits contained notes. 2 of the hits were on non-Georges: $20, $10. The hits were on bills that spread across 7 of the 12 FRBs. The FRBs for which I didn't receive hits were Boston (A), Philadelphia (C), St. Louis (H), Minneapolis (I), and Dallas (K). I got one hit on a new combo in the past week: 2004-$20-EB


So how did this week end up as a 1.6? To start off the calculation, I compare this week's number with the lowest and highest from the past 12 weeks and score it based on how it fits in that range - so if this week's number is midway between the low and the high, it scores a 0.5 for that category (i.e. if this week's States Hit was 10, the past 12 weeks' low was 5, and the past 12 weeks' high was 15, that'd be a 0.5). A category can be scored at a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 1.25 meaning that if this week is better than any of the past 12, bonus points are awarded. Some categories are worth more than others (in the 1.0 version, categories are worth either 1 or 2). The sum of the products of the category scores and value results in the overall score for the week. That number is then compared to the overall scores for the previous 12 weeks, and where it ends up in the range results in the week's score on a scale from 0 to 10 (so if the overall score is midway between the two, the week is a 5.0). A week cannot score below 0 or above 10.

Here's a tabular view of this week's scores:

Past 12 Weeks
StatWeekMinMaxScoreWeightS*W
Hits that Changed States105250.252.00.50
Days with Hits7671.002.02.00
Distinct States Hit104150.552.01.09
Hits Beyond the 1st on a Bill 163150.252.00.50
Bills Active Over a Year 224.512.753.40.292.00.58
New Counties2040.502.01.00
Hits from Georgers with Profiles2050.402.00.80
Hits with Notes2819420.392.00.78
International Hits0020.001.00.00
Hits on Non-Georges2040.501.00.50
Hits in "Sleepy" States2040.501.00.50
Distinct FRBs Hit78110.001.00.00
New Series/Denom/FRB/Block Combo Hit1050.201.00.20
*** TOTAL ***8.45
1 - The second hit on a bill is worth 1 point. Each hit thereafter doubles in value (i.e. The third is worth 2 and the fourth is worth 4.).
2 - A bill active for a year is worth 1 point. Each additional year doubles in value and partial years add partial value.

The minimum overall score over the past 12 weeks was 6.52 and the maximum was 18.67 so this week's score of 8.45 resulted in a scale score of 1.6.


Another week with a low score. On the positive side, if it continues, the relative nature of the scale will eventually work things out, and the score will be higher. I'd prefer to have better weeks, but at this point, this seems like the new normal.

Thursday, October 3, 2013

My September 2013 Where's George Summary

My September 2013 Where's George Summary

In September, I entered 996 bills and received 123 hits (97 of which were the initial hit on the bill). I ended the month with a hit rate of 16.20% [-0.23% compared to end of August] and a slugging percentage of 19.12% [-0.24%]. September was my second worst month for hits in 2013 beating out only February, but it's also now my second highest month for entries. Almost wish I had entered 4 more bills in September to put it at the four digit mark.

Top Ten Months by Hits

1.May 2012
160
2.Apr 2013
155
3.Jul 2013
154
4.Aug 2013
146
5.Apr 2012
139
6.Jul 2012
137
Jan 2013
137
8.Sep 2012
136
9.Mar 2013
132
10.Nov 2012
130
:
17.Sep 2013
123

Top Ten Months by Entries

1.May 2013
1228
2.Sep 2013
996
3.Jun 2013
753
4.May 2012
730
5.Sep 2012
711
6.Sep 2011
675
7.Jun 2012
651
8.Oct 2011
641
9.May 2011
607
10.Apr 2010
604

2006-$1-LR finally passed 2006-$1-LL in terms of entries, but it was a month too late to do that in regards to taking the top spot. LG continues to be my top 2009-$1 block in regards to hits, and it moved up an additional spot to fourth.

Blocks by Entries

1.2009-$1-LK+30614
2.2009-$1-LG+8564
3.2006-$1-LR+14560
4.2006-$1-LL+4554
5.2006-$1-LH+3512
6.2006-$1-LG+3490
7.2009-$1-LF+17477
8.2009-$1-LB+10458
9.2006-$1-LN+2395
10.2006-$1-LE381

2009 by Entries

1.2009-$1-LK+30614
2.2009-$1-LG+8564
3.2009-$1-LF+17477
4.2009-$1-LB+10458
5.2009-$1-LJ+16324
6.2009-$1-IA+7318
7.2009-$1-HA+7308
8.2009-$1-LI+4286
9.2009-$1-FC+10276
10.2009-$1-LE+7247

Blocks by Hits

1.2006-$1-LR+1136
2.2006-$1-LH123
3.2006-$1-LL121
4.2009-$1-LG+4107
5.2006-$1-LG+1106
6.2009-$1-LB+198
7.2006-$1-LN+193
8.2009-$1-LK+589
9.2009-$1-LF+285
10.2006-$1-LE+281
2006-$1-LJ81

Of my top ten States with hits, Hawaii, Washington, and New York failed to get hits. Contra Costa county and Citrus Heights "lost" a spot in their respective top tens by virtue of coming out of the down side of a couple of ties from last month. Of all cities, I got the most hits in Reno NV last month. Will be interesting to see how high Reno can go on the top ten list.

States

1.CA+884065
2.NV+10198
3.OR+3105
4.HI98
5.WA97
6.TX+396
7.AZ+384
8.NY67
9.IL+459
10.FL+149

Counties

1.Sacramento CA+171221
2.El Dorado CA+9252
3.Placer CA+5224
4.Alameda CA+3219
5.Santa Clara CA+6218
6.Los Angeles CA+6205
7.San Francisco CA+5149
8.Contra Costa CA+3147
9.San Joaquin CA+2104
10.Washoe NV+9102

Cities

1.Sacramento, CA+4453
2.Folsom, CA+5275
3.San Francisco, CA+5149
4.Rancho Cordova, CA+2109
5.El Dorado Hills, CA+3100
6.San Jose, CA+192
7.Roseville, CA+291
8.Elk Grove, CA+179
9.Reno, NV+675
10.Citrus Heights, CA+170

I've started to get some help in regards to one dollar series bingos (meaning that I've been buying extra bills from blocks in which I don't have hits). This has led to me entering my first bill for eight different 2009 blocks, one 2003A block, and three 2001 blocks. Meanwhile I've picked up hits in three new 2009 blocks, one new 2006 block, and one new 2001 block. I expect to see more new block hits next month (but probably not nearly as many new blocks entered).

Series 2009 $1 Bingo

A BostonABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
B New YorkABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
C PhiladelphiaABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
D ClevelandABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
E RichmondABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
F AtlantaABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
G ChicagoABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
H St. LouisABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
I MinneapolisABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
J Kansas CityABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
K DallasABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
L San FranciscoABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
Progress: Hits 60/85 [70.6%]; Entries 77/85 [90.6%]
New First Entries: D* [09-08-2013]; BH [09-08-2013]; JC [09-09-2013]; EF [09-14-2013]; KG [09-22-2013];
GG [09-22-2013]; DE [09-24-2013]; DD [09-25-2013];
New First Hits: LM [09-06-2013]; AD [09-23-2013]; D* [09-29-2013];

Series 2006 $1 Bingo

A BostonABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
B New YorkABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
C PhiladelphiaABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
D ClevelandABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
E RichmondABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
F AtlantaABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
G ChicagoABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
H St. LouisABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
I MinneapolisABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
J Kansas CityABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
K DallasABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
L San FranciscoABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
Progress: Hits 108/112 [96.4%]; Entries 112/112 [100.0%]
New First Entries: None
New First Hits: L* [09-29-2013];

Series 2003A $1 Bingo

A BostonABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
B New YorkABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
C PhiladelphiaABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
D ClevelandABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
E RichmondABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
F AtlantaABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
G ChicagoABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
H St. LouisABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
I MinneapolisABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
J Kansas CityABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
K DallasABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
L San FranciscoABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
Progress: Hits 84/93 [90.3%]; Entries 93/93 [100.0%]
New First Entries: B* [09-06-2013];
New First Hits: None

Series 2003 $1 Bingo

A BostonABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
B New YorkABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
C PhiladelphiaABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
D ClevelandABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
E RichmondABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
F AtlantaABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
G ChicagoABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
H St. LouisABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
I MinneapolisABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
J Kansas CityABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
K DallasABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
L San FranciscoABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
Progress: Hits 58/87 [66.7%]; Entries 83/87 [95.4%]
New First Entries: None
New First Hits: None

Series 2001 $1 Bingo

A BostonABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
B New YorkABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
C PhiladelphiaABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
D ClevelandABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
E RichmondABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
F AtlantaABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
G ChicagoABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
H St. LouisABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
I MinneapolisABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
J Kansas CityABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
K DallasABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
L San FranciscoABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRSTUVWXY*
Progress: Hits 31/63 [49.2%]; Entries 58/63 [92.1%]
New First Entries: F* [09-24-2013]; CA [09-29-2013]; BH [09-29-2013];
New First Hits: AD [09-26-2013];

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Rankings & What's Next: UFC Lightweights

Rankings & What's Next: UFC Lightweights

After a multiple month layoff, I'm bringing back a feature that I started earlier this year where I combine a division's published rankings from UFC.com, Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly. I then use those combined rankings to determine who should get the next title shot and which two fighters should face off in a #1 contender's match for the next shot based on the following rules:

  • The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
    • Won two fights in a row.
    • Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
    • Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
  • The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
    • Won his last fight.
    • Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
    • Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.

I then pair up the remaining fighters from the top ten (sometimes going beyond) based on their last outcome in an attempt to set things up so that when all of the matches play out, there's at least a couple of good candidates for the next #1 contender's match.

After going through my theorical matchups, I take a look at the fights the UFC has already set up and give my take on what should happen with the unmatched fighters. Finally, I give my overall thoughts on the division.

In the spring, I was working my way "up" the weight classes. With this reboot, I'm going to start with heavyweight and work down since I didn't make it all the way through last time.


Combined Rankings

UFCFight MatrixSherdogMMA Weekly
Last Update:09/23/201309/29/201309/23/201309/24/2013
1.Anthony Pettis1(0)111
2.Benson Henderson2(1)222
3.Gilbert Melendez3(2)333
4.TJ Grant4(3)444
5.Josh Thomson5(4)7(8)6(7)6(8)
6.Gray Maynard6(5)9(11)5(6)5(6)
7.Khabib Nurmagomedov8(7)6(7)8(9)7(9)
8.Rafael dos Anjos7(6)5(6)9(10)
9.Nate Diaz9(8)7(8)8(10)
10.Diego Sanchez8(10)
Jim Miller10(9)10(12)T10(OC)
Donald CerroneT10(OC)
Pat HealyT10(OC)
Jorge MasvidalT10(OC)

Matches I'd Make

Starting off with the title, the next shot goes to T.J. Grant (yes, I know he's hurt, but the UFC could have waited another month for him to be ready). Josh Thompson and Khabib Nurmagomedov are the highest rated fighters after Grant coming off of wins, so I'd pair them together to fight for the next shot. Rafael dos Anjos and Diego Sanchez are the only other fighters in the top ten coming off of wins, so I'd have them face off. As for those coming off of losses, I'd pit Benson Henderson against Gray Maynard to get one of them a win, and I'd match Gilbert Melendez against Nate Diaz (yes, I know that they wouldn't agree to fight each other). Looking beyond the top ten, I'd pit Jim Miller against Donald Cerrone to try to get one of those two back on track. I'd give Pat Healy a fight against Evan Dunham and Jorge Masvidal would be set up against Gleison Tibau.

Matches the UFC has Made

Since Grant is out with an injury, the UFC has set up Thompson with Pettis for the FOX card in December. Melendez will be taking on Sanchez at UFC 167 next month (an unusual loser versus winner match although both decisions were arguable). Maynard has been set up to take on Diaz during the Ultimate Fighter Finale, but Nate has tweeted (jokingly?) that he can't make the fight due to a high school reunion (in November?). Cerrone has been matched up with Dunham for UFC 167, and Masvidal will be taking on Rustam Khabilov at Fight Night 31.

Matches I'd Add to the UFC's

The UFC has only left me three guys in the top ten coming off of wins: Grant, Nurmagomedov, and dos Anjos. As they are higher ranked, Grant and Nurmagomedov get to face off for the #1 contender slot (I feel T.J. needs to re-earn the title shot after dropping out of two title fights). Though not the usual way of going, I'd pit dos Anjos against Henderson. Miller and Healy put on a barnburner in April, but it's too soon for a rematch. Looking a bit further down the roster, I'd set up Matt Wiman against Healy and Takanori Gomi against Miller.


Lightweight is one of the deeper divisions in the UFC and the logjam at the top is finally starting to get sorted out now that the division seems to be out of "rematch hell". Hopefully the title will continue to be defeated roughly every four months making this division one of the UFC's most active. It'll be interesting to see how long Pettis can hold onto the belt and if we'll see the return of any fighters that dropped to featherweight (Guida and Edgar come to mind although I wouldn't support either) or if Jose Aldo will eventually make the move upwards.

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

2013 NFL Playoff Possibilities: Week 4

After four weeks, the front runners to make the playoffs are really starting to take shape. Opportunities still exist for all teams, but some of the teams need to start picking it up now. What follows is an analysis of each team's playoff chances by randomly determining the outcome of the remaining games. As always, for each set of iterations, one team is picked to win out while another loses their remaining games.

AFC East
DivisionPlayoffsDivision ΔPlayoffs Δ
Buffalo Bills11.5%25.1%+2.4%+5.8%
Miami Dolphins26.9%47.9%-7.9%-9.5%
New England Patriots48.0%67.6%+10.4%+8.0%
New York Jets13.6%26.6%-4.9%-10.5%

By remaining undefeated while having their closest rival (Miami) lose, New England has jumped out to the biggest chance of winning their division of any team in the AFC. The Dolphins have the seventh best chance of making the playoffs in the AFC and are going to have to make up for their loss this past weekend. As for Buffalo, they have the best chance of making the playoffs of any of the teams at the bottom of their division.

AFC North
DivisionPlayoffsDivision ΔPlayoffs Δ
Baltimore Ravens32.9%38.5%-3.1%-7.4%
Cincinnati Bengals29.1%36.3%-6.9%-9.5%
Cleveland Browns28.5%34.8%+11.0%+10.9%
Pittsburgh Steelers9.5%11.3%-0.9%-2.8%

4½% separates the Ravens from the Browns with the Bengals in between. Interestingly Cincinnati has a better chance of winning the division than Cleveland who has beaten them.

AFC South
DivisionPlayoffsDivision ΔPlayoffs Δ
Houston Texans22.7%33.9%-9.4%-10.0%
Indianapolis Colts38.8%51.2%+7.6%+9.7%
Jacksonville Jaguars6.1%8.3%-4.3%-5.4%
Tennessee Titans32.4%50.2%+6.1%+9.7%

Although tied record-wise, the Colts hold nearly a 6½% lead over the Titans. Only the Lions have a larger lead between teams with equal records at the top of a division, but Detroit has beaten the team with whom they are tied. The Jaguars have the worst chances of winning the division or making the playoffs of any team in the NFL.

AFC West
DivisionPlayoffsDivision ΔPlayoffs Δ
Denver Broncos40.3%65.4%+2.0%+6.4%
Kansas City Chiefs39.4%62.5%+1.8%+6.7%
Oakland Raiders6.8%14.5%-4.3%-6.5%
San Diego Chargers13.6%26.0%+0.6%+4.4%

The AFC West is home to the teams with the second and third best chances of making the playoffs. It's going to take quite a bit for the other two teams in the division to make their way back into the picture.

NFC East
DivisionPlayoffsDivision ΔPlayoffs Δ
Dallas Cowboys41.4%50.0%-3.3%-6.4%
New York Giants12.0%15.0%-1.6%-3.8%
Philadelphia Eagles25.3%31.6%-2.8%-6.0%
Washington Redskins21.3%25.6%+7.7%+7.8%

The Cowboys are 50/50 to make the playoffs at this point, but if they do so, it'll likely be by winning the division. Of all of the NFC divisions, the East is least likely to send a team to the playoffs as a wild card. Of the 0-4 teams, the Giants have the best chance of winning their division or making the playoffs.

NFC North
DivisionPlayoffsDivision ΔPlayoffs Δ
Chicago Bears33.2%54.3%-13.6%-11.4%
Detroit Lions40.3%59.6%+10.7%+11.2%
Green Bay Packers17.7%29.8%+0.7%-0.5%
Minnesota Vikings8.8%18.4%+2.2%+3.8%

By beating Chicago this past weekend, Detroit has taken a 7% lead over the Bears in regards to odds of winning the division. The Bears are more likely than not to make the playoffs at this point and even sport better odds than the NFC East leading Cowboys.

NFC South
DivisionPlayoffsDivision ΔPlayoffs Δ
Atlanta Falcons10.7%23.2%-5.1%-7.7%
Carolina Panthers17.8%31.4%-1.3%-0.6%
New Orleans Saints65.3%79.7%+9.4%+7.3%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.2%11.9%-3.0%-6.1%

New Orleans has the best chance of winning their division and making the playoffs at this point. Surprising to see a team already almost at an 80% chance of making the playoffs. The rest of the division is in pretty bad shape in regards to making the playoffs.

NFC West
DivisionPlayoffsDivision ΔPlayoffs Δ
Arizona Cardinals17.7%36.7%+2.0%+7.8%
San Francisco 49ers16.3%38.3%+1.7%+8.3%
Seattle Seahawks55.7%74.7%+4.7%+6.7%
St. Louis Rams10.3%19.9%-8.5%-10.6%

The Seahawks have the second best chance of winning their division or making the playoffs but they are 10% behind the Saints in regards to the former and 5% in regards to the latter. San Francisco and Arizona are sixth and seventh in regards to making the playoffs. There's a descent chance one of the wild cards will come out of the West.


As with last week, there are teams that might not win their division even if they win out from this point. All of these teams would still make the playoffs as wild cards, and in most situations, they'd still be the division winners. This list is made up of teams that are 2½ games or more (but not all of the teams in that situation) behind the lead in their division (½ game back means that the team lost against the division leader). Of these teams, Tampa Bay is in the worst shape since they are 0-4, the division leader (New Orleans) is 4-0, and the Bucs have lost to the Saints. Even still, they win the division 15 out of 16 times when they win out with the remaining games randomly determined.

Div Win
Tampa Bay Buccaneers93.7%
Jacksonville Jaguars97.7%
Atlanta Falcons98.2%
Oakland Raiders98.3%
Minnesota Vikings98.9%
Buffalo Bills99.4%
San Francisco 49ers99.7%
New York Jets99.8%
St. Louis Rams99.9%
Pittsburgh Steelers99.9%
New York Giants99.9%

The best games of week 5 feature undefeated teams going on the road to take on once defeated teams (Saints at Bears, Seahawks at Colts, and Chiefs at Titans) and a couple of 2-2 teams that need wins to stay relevant (Texans at 49ers). Interestingly all five of the undefeated teams are on the road this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised if less than half walk away with wins.