Every Wednesday for the past eight weeks, I've taken the rankings from UFC.com, Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly, combined them, and used the combined rankings to determine who got the next title shot and who participated in the next #1 contender's match based on a set of rules (rules will be listed below). For the next eight weeks, I'm going to go back through all of the men's divisions (Sherdog and MMA Weekly have a pound-for-pound list for woman but not an explicit women's bantamweight list, so I'm skipping that division for now) taking a look at the fights that have occurred since my last post, how the rankings have changed, and then take a look ahead.
My previous post on the UFC Light Heavyweights can be found here.
Here's what happened in the division in the past eight weeks:
- Jon Jones defeated Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 165 to retain the title.
- Fabio Maldonado defeated Joey Beltran at UFC Fight Night 29.
- Thiago Silva defeated Matt Hamill at UFC Fight Night 29.
- Jimi Manuwa defeated Ryan Jimmo at UFC Fight Night 30.
The combined rankings for the division are now as such:
Combined Rankings
| UFC | Fight Matrix | Sherdog | MMA Weekly | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last Update: | 10/28/2013 | 11/03/2013 | 10/28/2013 | 10/27/2013 | |||||||||
| 1. | Jon Jones | 1 | (0) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2. | Alexander Gustafsson | 2 | (1) | 4 | 2 | 2 | |||||||
| 3. | Phil Davis | 4 | (3) | 2 | 4 | 5 | |||||||
| 4. | Rashad Evans | 5 | (4) | 3 | 3 | 6 | |||||||
| 5. | Glover Teixeira | 3 | (2) | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||||||
| 6. | Antonio Nogueira | 6 | (5) | 5 | 7 | 4 | |||||||
| 7. | Dan Henderson | 7 | (6) | 8 | 5 | 7 | |||||||
| 8. | Chael Sonnen | 8 | (7) | 6 | 10 | 8 | |||||||
| 9. | Gegard Mousasi | 9 | (8) | 9 | 9 | 10 | |||||||
| 10. | Mauricio Rua | 10 | (9) | 10 | 9 | ||||||||
| Ryan Bader | 8 | ||||||||||||
With most of the fighters in the top ten not active in the past eight weeks (which isn't surprising and is a sign that I probably should do this every eight weeks for each division), there's not a lot of changes in the light heavyweight top ten. Gustafsson moved up a spot after a very strong showing in his title fight loss to Jones. Machida has fallen out of the top ten with his move down to middleweight. Otherwise everything else is pretty much the same.
My rules for determining who gets the next title shot and who fights to be the next #1 contender:
- The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
- The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
Matches I'd Make
Starting off with the title shot, up next for Jon Jones would be Phil Davis. Mr. Wonderful has rattled off three wins since his loss to Evans in a title eliminator match and he's due to get his shot at the title. For the #1 contender's match, I'd set up Glover Teixeira to thrown down with Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Only three other fighters in the top ten are coming off of wins: Rashad Evans, Chael Sonnen, and Gegard Mousasi. Since Evans and Sonnen are the higher ranked of the three, I'd match those two up. As for Mousasi, we'll have to look a bit deeper in the division. I think the best two options are Thiago Silva and Jimi Manuwa. With Silva missing weight in his last fight, I wouldn't want to reward him with Mousasi, so I'd pair up Manuwa and Mousasi instead. As for the fighters coming off of losses, I'd match up Alexander Gustafsson with Dan Henderson to get one of the two back into the title picture. Then I'd let Mauricio Rua take on Ryan Bader to see which one of the two deserves to be at the bottom of the top ten.
Matches the UFC has Made
Although not officially signed nor slated for an event, the UFC has stated that Teixeira gets the next crack at Jones. Gustafsson was set up to take on Nogueira in March with a title rematch for Alex on the line, but Little Nog has had to withdraw from the fight and has been replaced by Manuwa (who will be fighting in his home country). Rashad Evans and Chael Sonnen are set to lock horns at UFC 167 the weekend after next. Henderson is moving down to middleweight to take on Vitor Belfort in the main event of UFC Fight Night 32 this Saturday. Mousasi will also be dropping down to middleweight, and he will take on Lyoto Machida in the main event of a fight night in Brazil in February. Rua and Bader will both be fighting at UFC Fight Night 33 in Australia but not against each other. Shogun will be taking on James Te Huna while Bader will be taking on the aging Anthony Perosh. Both Te Huna and Perosh are from Australia.
Matches I'd Add to the UFC's
Only two fighters from the top ten are without opponents: Davis and Nogueira. Mr. Wonderful defeated Little Nog in early 2011, and with Nogueira out through at least March, there's no point in holding up Davis waiting for this match up. Rumors are that Phil will be the one to welcome Daniel Cormier to the light heavyweight division, and I can accept that match up although I'd expect a stinker of a fight.
A number of the top guys from the division are moving down to middleweight likely because the Anderson Silva era might be over and Chris Weidman seems beatable. With the close fight between Jones and Gustafsson, it'll be interesting to see if some of the contenders make their way back up thinking that Bones' weakness may have been exposed. With DC coming down (and Dos Santos ought to be trying to figure out if there's any way he could make 205) and a Gus rematch on the horizon, 2014 should be an interesting year for the division.
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