The following percentages were calculated by "playing out" the remaining games of the season via coinflip with one caveat: for each set of simulations, one team is picked to win out while another is picked to lose out. Each combo is used an equal number of times. Using the "win out"/"lose out" teams gives information on which teams are starting to have their playoff chances fade away (i.e. those teams that don't always make the playoffs when they win out) and which teams are locking up a spot (i.e. those teams that make the playoffs even if they lose out).
| AFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Buffalo Bills | 3.1% | 5.8% | -4.2% | -5.7% |
| Miami Dolphins | 10.7% | 24.5% | +0.0% | +5.6% |
| New England Patriots | 70.5% | 83.0% | +4.7% | +6.8% |
| New York Jets | 15.7% | 32.0% | -0.5% | +5.5% |
New England, New York, and Miami won this weekend, but only the Patriots saw their odds of winning the division increase. The Dolphins didn't lose any ground unlike the Jets because their win came against a conference foe. The Bills are pretty much done.
| AFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 12.0% | 15.1% | -4.3% | -7.6% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 62.9% | 70.2% | -3.4% | -6.1% |
| Cleveland Browns | 18.6% | 23.6% | +8.8% | +9.2% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.6% | 7.7% | -1.0% | -3.0% |
The Browns were the only winners from the division this past weekend, but they only got a slight boost from the win.
| AFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Houston Texans | 4.6% | 7.2% | -7.8% | -7.8% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 73.7% | 79.9% | +6.7% | +8.1% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.7% | 0.9% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| Tennessee Titans | 21.0% | 32.5% | +1.6% | +6.1% |
Funny to think that had Houston not gotten "lucky" in their first two games, that the AFC South could have two 0-8 teams. Indianapolis has a pretty strong hold on the division, but Tennessee is still alive.
| AFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Denver Broncos | 30.3% | 83.8% | -3.1% | +0.3% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 65.1% | 96.9% | +7.8% | +3.9% |
| Oakland Raiders | 0.6% | 12.0% | -1.6% | -5.9% |
| San Diego Chargers | 3.9% | 24.8% | -3.1% | -8.9% |
The Chiefs are closing in on locking up the first playoff position. The two games between Kansas City and Denver between weeks 11 and 13 will decide the fate of the division, but all of the teams in the division are still alive in the playoff hunt.
| NFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 57.6% | 62.9% | +2.8% | +4.8% |
| New York Giants | 7.4% | 8.8% | -2.8% | -2.5% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 20.9% | 28.0% | +0.3% | +3.3% |
| Washington Redskins | 14.2% | 16.7% | -0.3% | +0.8% |
Dallas had to fight to comeback against lowly Minnesota, but the win helped solidify their lead in the division. New York has the best chance of any of the last place teams to win their division.
| NFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Chicago Bears | 32.9% | 47.4% | +11.0% | +12.3% |
| Detroit Lions | 33.6% | 50.5% | +3.8% | -0.6% |
| Green Bay Packers | 33.2% | 48.0% | -13.7% | -14.2% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.4% | 1.5% | -1.1% | -2.5% |
The three-way tie between the Bears, Lions, and Packers can be seen in each of their division winning chances. Detroit has a slight edge due to having the best conference record, and likewise Green Bay has an edge over Chicago for the same reason even though the Bears won the first match up between the two.
| NFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 2.6% | 6.3% | -2.8% | -5.2% |
| Carolina Panthers | 35.4% | 56.2% | +11.7% | +12.7% |
| New Orleans Saints | 61.9% | 78.5% | -8.5% | -5.8% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.4% | -2.3% |
Things are getting tighter in the South, as Carolina closes in on New Orleans. Tampa Bay has the worst playoff chances of any team in the NFL.
| NFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3.4% | 24.0% | -1.2% | -0.8% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 23.6% | 72.0% | -4.9% | -0.5% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 72.3% | 92.9% | +7.8% | +4.5% |
| St. Louis Rams | 0.8% | 6.0% | -1.7% | -4.0% |
The Seahawks have the second best shot of winning their division and the second best chance of making the playoffs of all teams in the NFL. The 49ers have a better chance of making the playoffs than a few of the divisional leaders.
19 teams might not win their division even if they win out. Of those teams, 10 might not even make the playoffs.
| Div Win | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1.8% | 6.8% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 11.0% | 40.3% |
| St. Louis Rams | 15.9% | 95.4% |
| Oakland Raiders | 16.0% | 99.8% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 17.3% | 22.9% |
| Buffalo Bills | 50.7% | 91.6% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 53.5% | 99.2% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 58.2% | 100.0% |
| Houston Texans | 71.9% | 99.3% |
| San Diego Chargers | 77.8% | 100.0% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 87.9% | 98.8% |
| New York Jets | 88.7% | 100.0% |
| New York Giants | 89.7% | 99.5% |
| Miami Dolphins | 94.6% | 100.0% |
| Cleveland Browns | 98.1% | 100.0% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 98.2% | 100.0% |
| Washington Redskins | 98.3% | 100.0% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 98.9% | 100.0% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 99.8% | 100.0% |
Three teams have started the process of locking up a playoff position (they would still make the playoffs even if they lose out). The Chiefs lead that group already having better than a one third chance of making the playoffs if they lost their remaining seven games.
| Div Win | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.0% | 36.4% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.8% | 2.2% |
| New England Patriots | 0.3% | 0.3% |
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