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Monday, November 4, 2013

NFL 2013 Playoff Picture: Week 9

The following is calculated assuming that all unplayed games are 0-0 ties. That is assumed to make tiebreakers work out better.


Every team in the NFL has now played at least eight games (ten teams have played nine including the undefeated Chiefs), and the race for the playoffs is now truly heating up. This weeks playoff picture features one returning team and one team that's making its first appearance of the year.

Starting things off in the AFC, New England continues to lead the East by two games over New York. Miami follows a half game behind the Jets, and Buffalo is a game and a half between the Dolphins. The Patriots and Jets are off this coming week, so New England will still have a two game lead when week 10 is done.

The Bengals continue to lead the North, but their lead is down to just two games over the Browns (the only team from the division to win this past weekend). The Ravens trail Cleveland by a half game, and the Steelers are a game behind Baltimore.

Down South, each spot is separated by two games. Indianapolis is on top, followed by Tennessee, then there's Houston, and finally Jacksonville brings up the rear.

As for the West, the Chiefs lead the Broncos by a game and a half. The Chargers are three games behind Denver, and the Raiders are a game behind San Diego.

Moving onto ranking the division leaders, everything is decided by record. Kansas City at 9-0 leads the way followed by New England at 7-2. Indianapolis (the only AFC division leader who's had their bye) is #3 at 6-2. Cincinnati has the #4 spot at 6-3.

Denver, with the second best record in the AFC, controls the first wild card position. The second spot goes to New York - the only other AFC team with a winning record. The AFC's playoff picture currently looks as such:

Over on the NFC side, it was a good week for the NFC East as each team that played won (the Giants had the week off). The Cowboys continue to lead the division and maintain a game lead over the Eagles. Philly has a half game lead over the Redskins, who in turn lead the Giants by a game.

Up North, there's a three way tie for best record between Chicago, Detroit, and Green Bay. The Packers beat the Lions who beat the Bears who beat the Packers, so the head-to-head tiebreaker doesn't solve anything. All three have defeated Minnesota once and are 2-1 in the division, so that doesn't solve things either. Moving onto common games, they're all 4-1 (with 5 more common games yet to be played), so that doesn't do it either. Chicago is 3-3 against NFC teams, Detroit is 4-2, while Green Bay is 3-2, so the Lions have the best conference record and currently have the tiebreaker edge. The Bears have the head-to-head edge over the Packers, so they are second for now. Green Bay is third, and the Vikings are fourth four games back.

New Orleans still leads the South, but their lead is now down to a game over Carolina. Atlanta is three behind the Panthers, and the 0-8 Buccaneers are two games behind the Falcons.

Out West, the Seahawks lead the 49ers by a game and a half. The Cardinals are two games behind San Francisco, and the Rams are a game and a half behind Arizona.

Seattle has the best record in the NFC and currently control the #1 seed. New Orleans are a game and a half behind in the #2 seed. Detroit is next one game back of the Saints, and Dallas is a half game behind the Lions.

Looking at the second place teams for the wild card, San Francisco has the best record and thus the first wild card position. Carolina and Chicago are tied for the next spot. Since they haven't played, conference record will decide who gets the spot. The Panthers are 5-2 in the NFC while the Bears are only 3-3, so currently Carolina has the second wild card spot. Here's the NFC's current playoff picture:

Looking ahead to next week, the only divisional lead that could change hands is that of the NFC North. Interestingly, the Bears have the best chance to lead the division. Chicago is playing Detroit, and if the Bears win, they take over the lead regardless of the outcome of the Packers game (since Chicago currently has the head-to-head tiebreaker). If the Lions beat the Bears, the lead will go to the Packers if they win (since they currently have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Detroit) otherwise the Lions will maintain control.

As for the wild cards, the only team locked in is the Broncos. The second AFC wild card will go to the Titans if they win (and they should since they're playing the Jaguars). Otherwise, it'll go to the Chargers if they win. If neither Tennessee nor San Diego win, the spot will stay with the Jets (who'll be on a bye).

On the NFC side, the winner of Carolina at San Francisco will have the first wild card spot. The second spot will be determined by the outcome of the Detroit/Chicago and Philadelphia/Green Bay games. If the Eagles beat the Packers, the loser of Carolina/San Francisco will get the second spot. Otherwise, if the Packers win, the Lions take the spot if they win. If Detroit loses, Green Bay gets the spot if the 49ers win, but the 49ers get it if they lose (since San Francisco has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Green Bay).

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