For the first time ever, the UFC released a set of fighter rankings. The rankings were media based: meaning that members of the press voted on where the fighters were positioned. The champion wasn't part of the ranking essentially considered rank "0". If an interim championship exists (currently only in bantonweight), that titleholder was auto-assigned rank "1".
I have been using Fight Matrix for over a year for fighter rankings. Fight Matrix ranks fighters from outside the UFC and are computer based. I thought it'd be interesting to compared the rankings from the two (skipping the non-UFC fighters in the Fight Matrix rankings).
Additionally I'm curious to see if or how the UFC uses the rankings to determine title contenders (and how often they will be updated. For the purpose of this exercise, I'm going to use the rankings to determine who should get the next title shot and which two fighters should face off to be the next #1 contender. For that, I'm going to use the following rules:
- The next title challenger will be the highest ranked fighter that have:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won at least three fights since their last title fight unless the fighter is a former champion that successfully defended the title.
- Won at least three fights since their last fight against the current champion unless the fighter is a former champion that successfully defended the title.
- Won five fights in a row if number of losses to current champion is two greater than number of victories.
- The next #1 contender fight will be the two highest ranked fighters that have:
- Won their last fight.
- Won at least two fights since their last title fight unless the fighter is a former champion that successfully defended the title.
- Won at least two fights since their last fight against the current champion unless the fighter is a former champion that successfully defended the title.
- Won four fights in a row if number of losses to current champion is two greater than number of victories.
Why these rules? I like for my title contenders to be on a hot streak, and I think those that have gotten a title shot and lost should have to do more work to get back to that point. Champions who defended the belt at least once shouldn't have to go through additional hurdles. Fighters who've lost to the current champion two more times than he's beaten him (if ever) have to get really hot to get back into the title picture.
Flyweight
Champion: Demetrious Johnson
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Title Shot (UFC): John Moraga
#1 Contender Match (UFC): Louis Gaudinot v. John Lineker
Title Shot (FM): John Moraga
#1 Contender Match (FM): Darren Uyenoyama v. John Lineker
Since flyweight is pretty new to the UFC, my rules for next title shot and qualifying for the next #1 contenders match are a bit rough. Moraga rankings-wise looks like the most logical choice for the next title shot unless the UFC decides to go for the Benavidez/Johnson rematch. And while the UFC is trying to push Gaudinot forward after TUF, I think Uyenoyama is closer skill-wise to a title shot. I prefer the Fight Matrix based matchup.
Bantamweight
Champion: Dominick Cruz
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Title Shot (UFC): Michael McDonald
#1 Contender Match (UFC): Eddie Wineland v. Rafael Assuncao
Title Shot (FM): Michael McDonald
#1 Contender Match (FM): Eddie Wineland v. Rafael Assuncao
McDonald is next in line for a title shot, so it's nice that it works out that way on both sets of rankings. Both produce the same #1 contenders match. Not sure that I agree with one set of rankings more than the other for bantamweight.
Featherweight
Champion: Jose Aldo
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Title Shot (UFC): Ricardo Lamas
#1 Contender Match (UFC): Chad Mendes v. Chan Sung Jung
Title Shot (FM): Dennis Siver
#1 Contender Match (FM): Clay Guida v. Ricardo Lamas
The UFC has decided that Anthony Pettis (dropping down from 155) gets the next shot at Aldo making two straight title fights with challengers dropping from lightweight. In fact, Aldo hasn't defended the title against a regular featherweight since January of last year, and it may not be until 2014 until he does it again. I agree with the matchups from the UFC rankings better than those from Fight Matrix. I think the Fight Matrix featherweight rankings over currently out of whack based on divisional transfers: many of those dropping down are initially ranked too high.
Lightweight
Champion: Benson Henderson
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Title Shot (UFC): Gilbert Melendez
#1 Contender Match (UFC): Anthony Pettis v. Jim Miller
Title Shot (FM): Gilbert Melendez
#1 Contender Match (FM): Anthony Pettis v. TJ Grant
Some could argue that Pettis has already won the #1 contenders match by defeating Cerrone, but it really doesn't matter as he's going to take the next crack at Aldo. Melendez is signed to fight Henderson, so both polls have that spot on. I think TJ Grant has been better as of late than Jim Miller, so I agree more with Fight Matrix on the lightweights.
Welterweight
Champion: Georges St-Pierre
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Title Shot (UFC): Johny Hendricks
#1 Contender Match (UFC): Rory MacDonald v. Demian Maia
Title Shot (FM): Johny Hendricks
#1 Contender Match (FM): Demian Maia v. Jake Ellenberger
I definitely agree that Hendricks ought to be getting the next title shot. Maia certainly looks to be close behind and right up there. As for the MacDonald versus Ellenberger question, I think I lean towards MacDonald. The UFC and Fight Matrix rankings for welterweight are pretty close, but I'd give the slight edge to the UFC's.
Middleweight
Champion: Anderson Silva
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Title Shot (UFC): Chris Weidman
#1 Contender Match (UFC): Vitor Belfort v. Yushin Okami
Title Shot (FM): Chris Weidman
#1 Contender Match (FM): Vitor Belfort v. Luke Rockhold
I decided not to penalize Belfort for his recent light heavyweight title shot as he got it as a late replacement. The loss still counts against him though. Sonnen still counts as middleweight on Fight Matrix, but the UFC is already considering him a light heavyweight.
I do agree that Weidman should be next for Silva and that Belfort should get the opportunity to fight for the #1 contender spot. I prefer the choice of Rockhold over Okami (Yushin had a two fight losing streak not long ago). The Fight Matrix rankings seem more correct to me.
Light Heavyweight
Champion: Jon Jones
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Title Shot (UFC): Dan Henderson
#1 Contender Match (UFC): Alexander Gustafsson v. Glover Teixeira
Title Shot (FM): Dan Henderson
#1 Contender Match (FM): Alexander Gustafsson v. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Once again, I agree with Hendo being next. Of the #1 contenders matchups, I guess I prefer the one based on the UFC's rankings. Gustafsson v. Machida makes more sense, but "The Dragon" doesn't qualify based on my rules. I think my rules may be too tough for the heavier weight divisions where the top fighters don't seem to get on as high of streaks.
Heavyweight
Champion: Cain Velasquez
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Title Shot (UFC): Fabricio Werdum
#1 Contender Match (UFC): Daniel Cormier v. Antonio Silva
Title Shot (FM): Daniel Cormier
#1 Contender Match (FM): Antonio Silva v. Fabricio Werdum
I don't think Josh Barnett counts as in the UFC yet, otherwise he'd be #8 on the Fight Matrix rankings. Big Foot doesn't qualify for the title shot since he lost to Cain three fights ago.
I think the fights based on the Fight Matrix rankings are better although Cormier and Velasquez have [lamely] said that they won't fight each other. As a whole, I'm not sure that I favor one ranking set over the other
It'll be interesting to see if the UFC makes use of the fighter rankings in determining future fights and title shots. I'd at least like to see the rankings halt some of the "trash talking" oneself into a title shot. I was surprised to find that I didn't agree with the Fight Matrix rankings more but rather evenly seemed to favor one over the other.
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