History will be made today with the UFC staging their first women's MMA fight. The main card features some definite star power, but the under card appears a bit weak to me other than the prelim headliner between Schaub and Johnson. There are a couple UFC vs Strike Force fights, and we'll see if the UFC can put an end to their losing streak.
| Welterweight Match [UFC157-12] | ||||
| N/A | ||||
| Match Points: 2.18 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| WW #255 | Nah-Shon Burrell (8-2) | -115 | 1.90 | 4.08 |
| WW #370 | Yuri Villefort (6-1) | -115 | 1.90 | 4.08 |
Both of these guys are young and coming off of a loss in Strike Force. Neither has fought anyone I recognize, so I'll go with Burrell as he had 4 fights in Strike Force compared to 1 for Villefort.
| Welterweight Match [UFC157-11] | ||||
| N/A | ||||
| Match Points: 2.04 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| MW #342 | Neil Magny (7-1) | -168 | 1.21 | 3.25 |
| NR | Jon Manley (7-1) | +142 | 2.90 | 4.94 |
These guys were on the most recent (disappointing) season of TUF and are now making their UFC debuts. I don't remember much about either, so since Magny has won a greater number of fights via finish, so I'll go with him.
| Welterweight Match [UFC157-10] | ||||
| N/A | ||||
| Match Points: 4.15 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| WW #83 | Kenny Robertson (11-2) | +152 | 6.31 | 10.46 |
| WW #160 | Brock Jardine (9-2) | -178 | 2.33 | 6.48 |
Both guys are finishers, and looking at their fight histories, their only losses have come to fighters I recognize. I don't see any good reason to pick one over the other, so I'll take the underdog.
| Lightweight Match [UFC157-09] | ||||
| FX | ||||
| Match Points: 8.87 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LW #69 | Sam Stout (18-8-1) | +117 | 10.38 | 19.25 |
| LW #70 | Caros Fodor (7-2) | -143 | 6.20 | 15.07 |
Stout's "Hands of Stone" moniker is a misnomer as of late as 9 of his last 10 fights went to decision. Fodor had a decent run in Strike Force going 5-1, but most of those fights were in the "Challenger" series. This is likely a "loser gets cut" match. I think Stout has to know that, and his experience will help lead him to one final UFC victory.
| Featherweight Match [UFC157-08] | ||||
| FX | ||||
| Match Points: 8.22 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| FW #79 | Matt Grice (15-4) | +322 | 26.47 | 34.69 |
| FW #87 | Dennis Bermudez (9-3) | -403 | 2.04 | 10.26 |
Bermudez is the third largest favorite on this card. While Grice would provide an opportunity to pick up more points, I think "The Menace" is a slightly better wrestler and has heavier hands.
| Lightweight Match [UFC157-07] | ||||
| FX | ||||
| Match Points: 6.72 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LW #84 | Anton Kuivanen (17-5) | +178 | 11.96 | 18.68 |
| LW #258 | Michael Chiesa (8-0) | -221 | 3.04 | 9.76 |
This is Chiesa's first UFC fight after winning TUF. Generally the UFC likes the slowly build up the level of competition for TUF winners. I expect that's what's going on here, and I expect "The Maverick" to win via submission
| Heavyweight Match [UFC157-06] | ||||
| FX | ||||
| Match Points: 11.66 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| HW #25 | Brendan Schaub (8-3) | -138 | 8.45 | 20.11 |
| HW #36 | Lavar Johnson (17-6) | +112 | 13.06 | 24.72 |
Coming off of two KO losses in a row, the UFC did Schaub no favors by giving him Johnson. Both guys are knockout artists with only 3 non-(T)KO wins between them (a decision win for Schaub; two submission wins for Johnson although one was to strikes). Johnson primarily losses via submission (his only (T)KO loss was in his first fight). Brendan has yet to submit an opponent and all three of his losses were (T)KOs. I don't see why Lamar "Big" Johnson is the underdog, and I certainly like his odds.
| Welterweight Match [UFC157-05] | ||||
| PPV / Main Card | ||||
| Match Points: 18.12 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| WW #8 | Josh Koscheck (17-6) | -470 | 3.86 | 21.98 |
| MW #25 | Robbie Lawler (19-9, 1 NC) | +364 | 65.96 | 84.08 |
If Stout isn't able to stop the Strike Force streak (Strike Force is up 3-0 on the UFC in UFC vs Strike Force matches), Kos most certainly will. This is Lawler's return to the welterweight division, and it's going to be an unpleasant start.
| Welterweight Match [UFC157-04] | ||||
| PPV / Main Card | ||||
| Match Points: 13.87 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| MW #71 | Court McGee (14-3) | -285 | 4.87 | 18.74 |
| WW #68 | Josh Neer (33-12-1) | +234 | 32.46 | 46.33 |
Sadly, I think this is the last that we'll see of Neer in the UFC. Currently 2-2 in his most recent run and on a two fight losing streak, "The Dentist" is going to need a win here to save from being cut. McGee is also on a two fight losing streak although his last loss was debatable. This fight will be Court's first at welterweight and if he brings his aggressive style down with him, he should be able to control this fight and get the victory.
| Bantamweight Match [UFC157-03] | ||||
| PPV / Main Card | ||||
| Match Points: 17.27 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| BW #4 | Urijah Faber (26-6) | -382 | 4.52 | 21.79 |
| BW #52 | Ivan Menjivar (25-9) | +303 | 52.33 | 69.60 |
While Faber seems to be on the decline, he's still quite dominent in non-title fights (his five losses over the past five years have all been for the title). Menjivar hasn't been able to win in the fights that would really move him ahead in the division, and Urijah (if he's truly on the decline) is a stronger opponent than any of those Ivan couldn't conquer. This victory is going to "The California Kid".
| Light Heavyweight Match [UFC157-02] | ||||
| PPV / Main Card / Co-Main Event | ||||
| Match Points: 15.43 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| LHW #2 | Lyoto Machida (18-3) | -234 | 6.59 | 22.02 |
| NR | Dan Henderson (29-8) | +192 | 29.63 | 45.06 |
In what should be a #1 contenders match but isn't, the co-main event should be a douzy. Like Faber, Hendo has not lost a non-title fight in a number of years and his last two victories were quite impressive. He unfortunately hasn't fought since 2011 (missing out on his title shot against Jones due to injury). Machida really hasn't taken out a "top level" opponent since before he became champion. And although he gave Jones fits in the first round of thier title fight, he was easily submitted in the second. He then angered the UFC by refusing to fight Jones on short notice back in September. I think, unfortunately, that at this point in career along with the long layoff, that Dan likely doesn't have enough to stop "The Dragon", and we will see a Machida victory.
| Women's 135 Match [UFC157-01] | ||||
| PPV / Main Card / Main Event / Championship | ||||
| Match Points: 23.54 | ||||
| Rank | Fighter | Line | Points | Total |
| W135 #1 | Ronda Rousey (6-0) | -1176 | 2.00 | 25.54 |
| W135 #8 | Liz Carmouche (8-2) | +762 | 179.37 | 202.91 |
In last year's format, Rousey would be an automatic pick here. With the new format this year, Carmouche is worth 8x the amount of points as Ronda. A Girl-rilla victory is worth ~200 points, and since I’m ~150 points behind, this could be a good opportunity to make a move to get back into the hunt. However, I do have to counter that thought with the fact that the league leader frequently doesn't make picks and thus gets auto-assigned alphabetical picks (in this case, Carmouche). With that said, the expected Rousey victory could gain me some ground (and a Liz victory would put me in a gigantic hole). I fully expect an under 90 second submission victory for Ronda, so I'm not going to get crazy here.
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