The Week That Was: Weight Management & Running

I went on a short trip to Southern California to attend UFC 157 and visit the Universal Studios theme park. As such, I didn't get as much exercise in as usual, but I think that will actually turn out in my favor.

Starting off with Weight Management, I burned 2076 calories in the past week but ate back 1143 to end the week 933 calories below target With the trip to So Cal, I was surprised that I ended with more than a couple hundred under. Add that 933 calorie deficit to my targeted ½ pound loss, and I mathematically should have lost 0.8 pounds. Here are my actual results:

	Avg	Min	Max	Last	Avg H20	Avg Fat
02/11-02/18	175.7	174.2	177.2	175.8	98.6	40.6
02/18-02/25	174.7	172.8	177.2	174.2	98.0	40.4
	-1.0	-1.4	0.0	-1.6	-0.6	-0.2

My week started off as if it was going to be a repeat of last week, but since I missed out on some of my usual exercise, I think my body released some of the extra water its been holding onto. As a result, I had a pretty good week in regards to weight loss and set a new low for the year. I expect my results next week won't be very good.

Moving onto running, I completed the second least amount of miles so far this year. I had intended to run on Wednesday, but my wife cooked, so I skipped the run to have dinner with her and then focus on packing for my trip. Not a great time to be missing a run with the half marathon so close, but I think it'll turn out ok and perhaps I'll benefit from the extra rest. Here's what I did this week:

M	T	W	R	F	S	S
8.10					3.65
Total Mileage: 11.75

The 3.65 miles on Saturday was on a treadmill: my first such run this year. I did a 1% incline which I heard simulates running outside. Regardless, I reconfirmed that running on a treadmill is beyond boring. Looking at my mileage compared to my weekly goal of 16 miles:

Miles Ran Short of Goal 16 Mile Goal Miles to Max

And here's a look at my progress towards my goal of 800 miles ran this year:

Previous This Week 800 Miles 1000 Miles

I've completed 146.71 miles so far this year and am on track to complete 974 miles in 2013. My plan is to do a 12 mile run this weekend before tapering down for the half marathon. I will likely complete more miles in the upcoming week than I have an any other so far this year.

My Where's George Week in Review: 02/17/13 - 02/23/13

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I got 33 hits in 9 States [AZ, CA²⁴, CO, FL, ID, IL, MO, OK, OR²]. Of those hits, 2 were the 3^rd hit on the bill, 6 were the 2^nd hit on the bill, and the rest (25) were the initial hit on the bill. Below is a calendar view of the hits throughout the week:

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
17	18	19	20	21	22	23
9	4	5	5	3	3	4

I came into the week with a 9 day hit streak. I got a hit on every day of this week which extended the streak to 16 days.

Of the 9 States in which I received hits this past week, 1 was the first hit for that State in 2013: Idaho. Overall I've received hits in 25 States in 2013. Here's how that stands towards my goal of 46 States hit:

0         51

Previous New Still Needed for Goal Beyond Goal

Additionally in the past week I received my first hit in 2 counties bringing my total of counties hit to 497. The newly hit counties were McHenry IL and Lincoln MO. I set a goal of 98 new counties hit in 2013, and here's a look at my progress towards that goal:

483       581

Previous New Still Needed for Goal

Of the bills hit in the past week, the longest active bill from the bunch was re-entered 3 Years 254 Days 3 Hours 58 Minutes after I originally entered it. That bill is now 12^th on my all-time longest active list.

I made predictions regarding bill entries and hits and new bills with hits for 2013. Here's a look at how I'm doing towards those predictions:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	22920	23691	23844	153	924	28920	115.1	23808	+38	+36
Bills with Hits	3704	3859	3884	25	180	5074	26.3	3907	-1	-23
Total Hits	4330	4519	4552	33	222	6030	32.6	4582	+0	-30

It was a good week for entries (and hits, for that matter) mostly since I traveled to Southern California to attend UFC 157. I didn't end up as many bills above my weekly target as expected though, and I expect this coming week will be light on entries, so I may once again be in the red.

At the current rate I'm entering bills in 2013, I'll end up with 6246 bills entered. To hit my goal of 6000 entries, I'll need to just average 114.3 bills per week for the rest of the year.

Looking at my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 87.64% so the goal is 88.64%), my percentage is now 87.82% [+0.18%].

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 6000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	20086	20796	20939	143	853	25634	141.5	20941	+2	-2
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6245.55555555556 entries this year rather than 6000						25851	141.2	20939	+2	0

Regarding my goal of increasing my non-San Francisco FRB entries, here's a table of my current progress:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	G%Goal Percentage	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Meet the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
Boston "A"	781	3.41%	810	3.42%	816	3.42%	3.51%	817	-1
New York "B"	1691	7.38%	1752	7.40%	1767	7.41%	7.58%	1768	-1
Philadelphia "C"	656	2.86%	681	2.87%	687	2.88%	2.96%	687	0
Cleveland "D"	819	3.57%	865	3.65%	871	3.65%	3.67%	857	+14
Richmond "E"	1569	6.85%	1637	6.91%	1647	6.91%	7.05%	1641	+6
Atlanta "F"	2096	9.14%	2191	9.25%	2203	9.24%	9.64%	2203	0
Chicago "G"	1502	6.55%	1565	6.61%	1573	6.60%	6.75%	1572	+1
St. Louis "H"	740	3.23%	769	3.25%	779	3.27%	3.33%	775	+4
Minneapolis "I"	602	2.63%	624	2.63%	629	2.64%	2.73%	631	-2
Kansas City "J"	558	2.43%	579	2.44%	583	2.45%	2.53%	585	-2
Dallas "K"	953	4.16%	974	4.11%	978	4.10%	4.36%	1001	-23

I found a new wild this past week. It traveled 2 Years 354 Days 8 Hours 41 Minutes to me from Prospect, OR (making a stop in Daly City, CA). The front of the bill had a circular stamp around the FRB symbol:

And the back had a one-liner at the bottom:

I've added a stamp to both side and sent it on it's way. We'll see if it turns up again.

After a disappointing week last week, this week was certainly a recovery week. February is back on track to exceed 100 hits, but it's going to be close. Can't wait to see where the bills I entered and/or spent in Southern California turn up next.

My UFC 157 Fight Picks

History will be made today with the UFC staging their first women's MMA fight. The main card features some definite star power, but the under card appears a bit weak to me other than the prelim headliner between Schaub and Johnson. There are a couple UFC vs Strike Force fights, and we'll see if the UFC can put an end to their losing streak.

Welterweight Match [UFC157-12]
N/A
Match Points: 2.18
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
WW #255	Nah-Shon Burrell (8-2)	-115	1.90	4.08
WW #370	Yuri Villefort (6-1)	-115	1.90	4.08

Both of these guys are young and coming off of a loss in Strike Force. Neither has fought anyone I recognize, so I'll go with Burrell as he had 4 fights in Strike Force compared to 1 for Villefort.

Welterweight Match [UFC157-11]
N/A
Match Points: 2.04
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #342	Neil Magny (7-1)	-168	1.21	3.25
NR	Jon Manley (7-1)	+142	2.90	4.94

These guys were on the most recent (disappointing) season of TUF and are now making their UFC debuts. I don't remember much about either, so since Magny has won a greater number of fights via finish, so I'll go with him.

Welterweight Match [UFC157-10]
N/A
Match Points: 4.15
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
WW #83	Kenny Robertson (11-2)	+152	6.31	10.46
WW #160	Brock Jardine (9-2)	-178	2.33	6.48

Both guys are finishers, and looking at their fight histories, their only losses have come to fighters I recognize. I don't see any good reason to pick one over the other, so I'll take the underdog.

Lightweight Match [UFC157-09]
FX
Match Points: 8.87
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #69	Sam Stout (18-8-1)	+117	10.38	19.25
LW #70	Caros Fodor (7-2)	-143	6.20	15.07

Stout's "Hands of Stone" moniker is a misnomer as of late as 9 of his last 10 fights went to decision. Fodor had a decent run in Strike Force going 5-1, but most of those fights were in the "Challenger" series. This is likely a "loser gets cut" match. I think Stout has to know that, and his experience will help lead him to one final UFC victory.

Featherweight Match [UFC157-08]
FX
Match Points: 8.22
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #79	Matt Grice (15-4)	+322	26.47	34.69
FW #87	Dennis Bermudez (9-3)	-403	2.04	10.26

Bermudez is the third largest favorite on this card. While Grice would provide an opportunity to pick up more points, I think "The Menace" is a slightly better wrestler and has heavier hands.

Lightweight Match [UFC157-07]
FX
Match Points: 6.72
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #84	Anton Kuivanen (17-5)	+178	11.96	18.68
LW #258	Michael Chiesa (8-0)	-221	3.04	9.76

This is Chiesa's first UFC fight after winning TUF. Generally the UFC likes the slowly build up the level of competition for TUF winners. I expect that's what's going on here, and I expect "The Maverick" to win via submission

Heavyweight Match [UFC157-06]
FX
Match Points: 11.66
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
HW #25	Brendan Schaub (8-3)	-138	8.45	20.11
HW #36	Lavar Johnson (17-6)	+112	13.06	24.72

Coming off of two KO losses in a row, the UFC did Schaub no favors by giving him Johnson. Both guys are knockout artists with only 3 non-(T)KO wins between them (a decision win for Schaub; two submission wins for Johnson although one was to strikes). Johnson primarily losses via submission (his only (T)KO loss was in his first fight). Brendan has yet to submit an opponent and all three of his losses were (T)KOs. I don't see why Lamar "Big" Johnson is the underdog, and I certainly like his odds.

Welterweight Match [UFC157-05]
PPV / Main Card
Match Points: 18.12
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
WW #8	Josh Koscheck (17-6)	-470	3.86	21.98
MW #25	Robbie Lawler (19-9, 1 NC)	+364	65.96	84.08

If Stout isn't able to stop the Strike Force streak (Strike Force is up 3-0 on the UFC in UFC vs Strike Force matches), Kos most certainly will. This is Lawler's return to the welterweight division, and it's going to be an unpleasant start.

Welterweight Match [UFC157-04]
PPV / Main Card
Match Points: 13.87
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #71	Court McGee (14-3)	-285	4.87	18.74
WW #68	Josh Neer (33-12-1)	+234	32.46	46.33

Sadly, I think this is the last that we'll see of Neer in the UFC. Currently 2-2 in his most recent run and on a two fight losing streak, "The Dentist" is going to need a win here to save from being cut. McGee is also on a two fight losing streak although his last loss was debatable. This fight will be Court's first at welterweight and if he brings his aggressive style down with him, he should be able to control this fight and get the victory.

Bantamweight Match [UFC157-03]
PPV / Main Card
Match Points: 17.27
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
BW #4	Urijah Faber (26-6)	-382	4.52	21.79
BW #52	Ivan Menjivar (25-9)	+303	52.33	69.60

While Faber seems to be on the decline, he's still quite dominent in non-title fights (his five losses over the past five years have all been for the title). Menjivar hasn't been able to win in the fights that would really move him ahead in the division, and Urijah (if he's truly on the decline) is a stronger opponent than any of those Ivan couldn't conquer. This victory is going to "The California Kid".

Light Heavyweight Match [UFC157-02]
PPV / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Match Points: 15.43
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LHW #2	Lyoto Machida (18-3)	-234	6.59	22.02
NR	Dan Henderson (29-8)	+192	29.63	45.06

In what should be a #1 contenders match but isn't, the co-main event should be a douzy. Like Faber, Hendo has not lost a non-title fight in a number of years and his last two victories were quite impressive. He unfortunately hasn't fought since 2011 (missing out on his title shot against Jones due to injury). Machida really hasn't taken out a "top level" opponent since before he became champion. And although he gave Jones fits in the first round of thier title fight, he was easily submitted in the second. He then angered the UFC by refusing to fight Jones on short notice back in September. I think, unfortunately, that at this point in career along with the long layoff, that Dan likely doesn't have enough to stop "The Dragon", and we will see a Machida victory.

Women's 135 Match [UFC157-01]
PPV / Main Card / Main Event / Championship
Match Points: 23.54
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
W135 #1	Ronda Rousey (6-0)	-1176	2.00	25.54
W135 #8	Liz Carmouche (8-2)	+762	179.37	202.91

In last year's format, Rousey would be an automatic pick here. With the new format this year, Carmouche is worth 8x the amount of points as Ronda. A Girl-rilla victory is worth ~200 points, and since I’m ~150 points behind, this could be a good opportunity to make a move to get back into the hunt. However, I do have to counter that thought with the fact that the league leader frequently doesn't make picks and thus gets auto-assigned alphabetical picks (in this case, Carmouche). With that said, the expected Rousey victory could gain me some ground (and a Liz victory would put me in a gigantic hole). I fully expect an under 90 second submission victory for Ronda, so I'm not going to get crazy here.

The Week That Was: Weight Management & Running

Recovery week was over, and it was time to get back to business. My weight management results were disappointing, but I was pleased with my progress in regards to running.

Starting off with Weight Management, I burned 3121 calories in the past week (my most in the past four weeks) and ended the week 1622 calories below budget (so I ate back roughly half of my exercise calories). Add that deficit to my targeted ½ pound loss, and I mathematically should have lost 1.0 pounds. Here are my actual results:

	Avg	Min	Max	Last	Avg H20	Avg Fat
02/04-02/11	175.9	174.2	177.2	175.6	97.7	42.0
02/11-02/18	175.7	174.2	177.2	175.8	98.6	40.6
	-0.2	0.0	0.0	+0.2	+0.9	-1.4

I had a feeling the numbers weren't going to look good and actually expected to have a higher average this week than last, so I was pleased that wasn't the case. I'm pretty disappointed that I had a good week calorie-wise last week and this but didn't really see any results from it. My fat pounds recovered from the increase last week and are now lowered than two weeks ago (or at any point this year).

I'm down 4.2 pounds from the start of the year (looking at average weights). Based on calorie deficits, I should be down 7.0. If I ignore the first week (where I gained 0.6 when I should have dropped 0.9), I'm still 1½ pounds heavier than I should be. So for now, my actual results are averaging to be 75% of expected. The big question is if the problem is my recording or does my body not burn calories at the average rate.

Moving onto running, I completed my new longest run of the year on Saturday and had a good pace of 9:48 minutes/mile. I need to hit 9:10 per mile to beat 2 hours, and I think I'm in good shape to have a chance at that. This past week was my most miles ran in a week since five weeks ago:

M	T	W	R	F	S	S
5.19		5.30			11.41
Total Mileage: 21.90

Looking at my mileage compared to my weekly goal of 16 miles:

Miles Ran 16 Mile Goal Miles to Max

And here's a look at my progress towards my goal of 800 miles ran this year:

Previous This Week 800 Miles 1000 Miles

I've completed 134.96 miles so far this year and am on track to complete 1026 miles in 2013. With four weeks to go until the Shamrock'n Half Marathon, I think I'm in good shape. My 12 mile run in a couple weeks will be my last big checkpoint before the big run.

My Where's George Week in Review: 02/10/13 - 02/16/13

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I got 18 hits in 6 States [CA¹³, CO, MA, MI, OR, WA]. Of those hits, 1 was the 3^rd hit on the bill, and the rest (17) were the initial hit on the bill. Below is a calendar view of the hits throughout the week:

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
10	11	12	13	14	15	16
1	3	1	4	2	3	4

I came into the week with a 2 day hit streak. I got a hit on every day of this week which extended the streak to 9 days.

Of the 6 States in which I received hits this past week, 2 were the first hit for that State in 2013: MA and MI. Overall I've received hits in 24 States in 2013. Here's how that stands towards my goal of 46 States hit:

0         51

Previous New Still Needed for Goal Beyond Goal

The hit in Massachusetts was my first since July of 2012. The hit in Michigan was my first since November of 2012.

Additionally in the past week I received my first hit in 2 counties bringing my total of counties hit to 495. The newly hit counties were Mesa CO and Genesee MI. I set a goal of 98 new counties hit in 2013, and here's a look at my progress towards that goal:

483       581

Previous New Still Needed for Goal

Of the bills hit in the past week, the longest active bill from the bunch was re-entered 4 Years 12 Days 21 Hours 41 Minutes after I originally entered it. That bill is now 5^th on my all-time longest active list. I also got a hit on what is now my 11^th longest active bill (that bill was 10^th until the aforementioned hit). My top ten longest active bills list is now:

Rank	Bill Info			Time Active	Last Update	Hits
1.	$1	2003A	L4532---3K	4 Years 200 Days 22 Minutes	10/12/2012	1
2.	$1	2003A	L3475---2C	4 Years 165 Days 9 Hours 56 Minutes	02/04/2013	2
3.	$5	2003	DL906---99C	4 Years 56 Days 48 Minutes	09/11/2012	1
4.	$1	2006	H9275---2A	4 Years 17 Days 1 Minute	09/14/2012	2
5.	$1	2006	I8453---4A	4 Years 12 Days 21 Hours 41 Minutes	02/15/2013	1
6.	$10	2006	IB639---42A	4 Years 3 Days 22 Hours 55 Minutes	06/13/2012	1
7.	$20	2004A	GL471---77A	4 Years 1 Day 8 Hours 16 Minutes	11/15/2012	1
8.	$1	2006	L4800---7E	3 Years 357 Days 18 Hours 31 Minutes	09/15/2012	1
9.	$1	2003A	L3475---2C	3 Years 351 Days 1 Hour 42 Minutes	08/08/2012	2
10.	$1	2006	L6169---4G	3 Years 346 Days 6 Hours 55 Minutes	10/26/2012	2

I made predictions regarding bill entries and hits and new bills with hits for 2013. Here's a look at how I'm doing towards those predictions:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	22920	23555	23691	136	771	28920	115.1	23693	+21	-2
Bills with Hits	3704	3842	3859	17	155	5074	26.3	3880	-9	-21
Total Hits	4330	4501	4519	18	189	6030	32.6	4549	-15	-30

It was a good week for bill entries but not much else. I guess on the bright side, I could say that for once I've set aggressive goals for bills with bills and total hits.

At the current rate I'm entering bills in 2013, I'll end up with 5988 bills entered. To hit my goal of 6000 entries, I'll need to increase my rate to 115.1 bills per week for the rest of the year.

Looking at my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 87.64% so the goal is 88.64%), my percentage is now 87.78% [+0.14%].

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 6000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	20086	20674	20796	122	710	25634	125.8	20799	-4	-3
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 5987.55319148936 entries this year rather than 6000						25623	125.8	20799	-4	-3

Regarding my goal of increasing my non-San Francisco FRB entries, here's a table of my current progress:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	G%Goal Percentage	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Meet the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
Boston "A"	781	3.41%	804	3.41%	810	3.42%	3.51%	812	-2
New York "B"	1691	7.38%	1745	7.41%	1752	7.40%	7.58%	1756	-4
Philadelphia "C"	656	2.86%	678	2.88%	681	2.87%	2.96%	682	-1
Cleveland "D"	819	3.57%	854	3.63%	865	3.65%	3.67%	851	+14
Richmond "E"	1569	6.85%	1628	6.91%	1637	6.91%	7.05%	1630	+7
Atlanta "F"	2096	9.14%	2175	9.23%	2191	9.25%	9.64%	2186	+5
Chicago "G"	1502	6.55%	1554	6.60%	1565	6.61%	6.75%	1561	+4
St. Louis "H"	740	3.23%	768	3.26%	769	3.25%	3.33%	769	0
Minneapolis "I"	602	2.63%	619	2.63%	624	2.63%	2.73%	627	-3
Kansas City "J"	558	2.43%	577	2.45%	579	2.44%	2.53%	581	-2
Dallas "K"	953	4.16%	968	4.11%	974	4.11%	4.36%	993	-19

The 18 hits I got this week was my least since the first week of October (which had three hitless days) and half the number of hits I got two weeks ago. It certainly was a disappointing week of hits. February is currently on track to be my first sub-100 hit month since December of 2011. Here's hoping that things turn around in the final twelve days of the month.

My UFC on FuelTV 7 Fight Picks

I find it hard to get too excited about a fight card on Fuel, but the headlining interim title fight should be a good one. The co-main event could be interesting too, but the rest of the card I could probably miss [watching] and not be bummed about it. I probably put too much effort in trying to make picks for the prelim fights where I didn't know much about either of the fighters. I'm pretty far behind in my fantasy league (~200 points behind first), so I'm going to need a few good cards of picks to catch up.

Flyweight Match [FUEL7-12]
N/A
Match Points: 6.67
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FLW #53	Ulysses Gomez (9-3)	-240	2.78	9.45
FLW #59	Phil Harris (21-10, 1 NC)	+193	12.87	19.54

Both fighters have lost their only UFC fight and were finished in the process.  Both have the majority of their wins by submission, but only Harris has lost via submission (five times).  Thus I'll take the favorite

Bantamweight Match [FUEL7-11]
N/A
Match Points: 5.18
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
BW #58	Motonobu Tezuka (19-5-4)	+169	8.75	13.93
BW #124	Vaughan Lee (12-8-1)	-203	2.55	7.73

Lee is 1-2 in the UFC but that's better than Tezuka's 0-1 start (a split decision loss to "Bruce Leroy").  Looking over Motonobu's history, I cannot say that I'm impressed: way too many victories via decision.  Vaughan's a finisher, and this one won't go the full three rounds.

Middleweight Match [FUEL7-10]
N/A
Match Points: 7.67
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LHW #31	Stanislav Nedkov (12-0, 1 NC)	+101	7.75	15.42
MW #55	Tom Watson (15-5)	-127	6.04	13.71

Nedkov is a "perfect" 12-0, but only because his loss to Thiago Silva was overturned due to a failed drug test.  This will be his first fight at middleweight.  Watson is, uh, British.  Not sure I know much else about him.  He's on his home turf, but this seems like a good fight to take the underdog.

Featherweight Match [FUEL7-09]
N/A
Match Points: 2.76
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #179	Josh Grispi (14-4)	-136	2.03	4.79
FW #195	Andy Ogle (8-2)	+110	3.04	5.80

Grispi is an odd case.  He was 4-0 in the WEC with some quality wins.  He's gone 0-3 against former WEC-ers in the UFC and is probably fighting to keep his job.  Ogle lost his UFC debut against a fighter I don't recognize and all of his pre-UFC fights were in promotions I don't recognize.  This looks like a solid opportunity for "The Fluke" to right his ship. 

Lightweight Match [FUEL7-08]
N/A
Match Points: 7.22
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #44	Paul Sass (13-1)	-117	6.17	13.39
LW #52	Danny Castillo (14-5)	-109	6.62	13.84

Sass was perfect up until his last fight when he was surprisingly caught in a submission by Wiman.  Castillo is always game, but he has consistency issues.  His two last losses came to a couple of Sass's victims, and while the transitive property doesn't really work in MMA, I still think Sass will have "Last Call's" number.

Lightweight Match [FUEL7-07]
N/A
Match Points: 2.09
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #289	Terry Etim (15-4)	-315	0.66	2.75
NR	Renee Forte (7-2)	+254	5.31	7.40

Other than the headliner, Etim is the largest favorite on this card, and after the knockout he took in his last fight, he could certainly use the bounce back win.  Forte lost his UFC debut to a fighter I don't recognize, and while it's not worth much in the way of points, I'm going to have to go with Etim.

Welterweight Match [FUEL7-06]
Fuel / Main Card
Match Points: 9.18
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
WW #62	Che Mills (15-5, 1 NC)	-215	4.27	13.45
WW #66	Matt Riddle (7-3, 1 NC)	+174	15.97	25.15

I don't like Riddle: I find him inconsistent and annoying.  He has fought all of his professional fights in the UFC.  Mills hasn't impressed me in his UFC career, and he seems like a guy who's ripe for getting upset.

Light Heavyweight Match [FUEL7-05]
Fuel / Main Card
Match Points: 12.60
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LHW #16	Ryan Jimmo (17-1)	+173	21.80	34.40
LHW #26	James Te Huna (15-5)	-213	5.92	18.52

Both have a knockout win over Anthony Perosh although Jimmo's was in just 7 seconds.  Te Huna has more UFC experience, and I don't recognize many of "Big Deal's" victory.  Add to that the fact that Ryan wins most often by decision, and I think going with Te Huna is the way to go.

Welterweight Match [FUEL7-04]
Fuel / Main Card
Match Points: 10.78
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #23	Jorge Santiago (25-10)	+197	21.24	32.02
WW #64	Gunnar Nelson (10-0-1)	-246	4.38	15.16

Santiago's two previous runs in the UFC have not gone well.  Will the third time be the charm?  Other than a draw in his first fight, Nelson has been perfect and never gone to decision.  That's the type of fighter I like to go with.

Light Heavyweight Match [FUEL7-03]
Fuel / Main Card
Match Points: 11.24
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LHW #34	Cyrille Diabate (19-8-1)	+188	21.13	32.37
LHW #36	Jimi Manuwa (12-0)	-234	4.80	16.04

Manuwa has the prettier record, but Diabate has more UFC experience.  I'm going to go with Jimi based on his record of finishing fights.

Featherweight Match [FUEL7-02]
Fuel / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Match Points: 13.83
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #8	Cub Swanson (18-5)	-132	10.48	24.31
FW #21	Dustin Poirier (13-2)	+106	14.66	28.49

Both guys have been doing well in the UFC although Swanson has been facing tougher competition.  I think Cub is the better all-around fighter at this point (Poirier still has time to improve and will) and will likely get the win.

Bantamweight Match [FUEL7-01]
Fuel / Main Card / Main Event / Championship
Match Points: 18.67
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
BW #1	Renan Barao (29-1, 1 NC)	-320	5.83	24.50
BW #6	Michael McDonald (15-1)	+250	46.68	65.35

I've picked two straight upsets in title fights, and have been wrong both times.  Do I dare pick a third?  Both guys are young (Barao is 25; McDonald is 22).  With that said, it's impressive that Barao has almost twice as many fights, and that both guys have already had this many.  These guys have the potential to be matched up many times if the heads up record stays close to even.  I guess in the end, the match up feels closer than the odds have it, and as such, I'll gamble on the 'dog.

The Week That Was: Weight Management & Running

It was a recovery week for me in regards to running, but even still, I had a good week keeping to my calorie budget and still managed to get in the miles needed to keep me on track for my yearly goal.

Starting off with Weight Management, I had two "over" days during the week, but one of them was just by 30 calories, so that hardly counts. I burned 2621 calories in the past week and ended the week 2097 calories below budget (thus I ate back 524 of my burned calories or less than one-fifth: probably the best I've done percentage-wise this year). Add that deficit to my targeted ½ pound loss, and I mathematically should have lost 1.1 pounds. Here are my actual results:

	Avg	Min	Max	Last	Avg H20	Avg Fat
01/28-02/04	176.6	175.6	178.0	178.0	98.9	41.0
02/04-02/11	175.9	174.2	177.2	175.6	97.7	42.0
	-0.7	-1.4	-0.8	-2.4	-1.2	+1.0

I didn't quite lose the expected amount, but I still lost a good amount. The numbers are a little bizarre this week: my fat weight was up for the first time this year, water weight is down quite a bit, and my ending weight was less than my weekly average (usually my Monday weigh-in is the highest for the week). Well, I'm guessing that my Tuesday weigh-in may be a bit higher than today's. I've never fully trusted the fat/water percentages from the scale, but I do keep an eye on them. Will be interesting to see how next week's numbers look.

Moving onto running, as I mentioned before, this was a recovery week (since I ran the Super Bowl Sunday 10K last Sunday). My speed was a bit slower than typical for these runs, but I think I got a good enough amount of miles in with all things considered:

M	T	W	R	F	S	S
3.38		5.05			9.30
Total Mileage: 17.73

I faded quite a bit at the end of the 9 mile run, but I did do some additional hills near the end, so that wasn't completely unexpected. Looking at my mileage compared to my weekly goal:

Miles Ran 16 Mile Goal Miles to Max

And here's a look at my progress towards my goal of 800 miles ran this year:

Previous This Week 800 Miles 1000 Miles

My first 100 miles of the year are in the books (I've completed 113.06 in 2013), and if I keep up my current pace, I'll end the year with 1006 miles. I'll be doing a couple long runs (11 and 12 miles respectively) over the next three weeks, so I expect that number to climb a bit through the Shamrock'n Half Marathon before starting to drop down.

My Where's George Week in Review: 02/03/13 - 02/09/13

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I got 25 hits in 7 States [AZ, CA¹⁹, HI, OH, OK, TX, UT]. Of those hits, 2 were the 3^rd hit on the bill, 6 were the 2^nd hit on the bill, and the rest (17) were the initial hit on the bill. Below is a calendar view of the hits throughout the week:

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
03	04	05	06	07	08	09
2	8	1	1	0	5	8

The 2 hits I received between Tuesday and Thursday is the worst three day period I've had since March 14-16 of 2011. The 8 hit days on Monday and Saturday kept this week somewhat respectable in overall hits.

I came into the week with a 30 day hit streak. When I didn't get a hit on Thursday that streak ended at 34 days: good for my 8^th longest streak all-time. Here's a look at my all-time ten longest hit streaks:

Rank	Start Date	End Date	Days		Rank	Start Date	End Date	Days
1.	10/07/2012	01/02/2013	88		6.	06/24/2012	08/16/2012	54
2.	12/28/2011	03/17/2012	81		7.	04/04/2012	05/21/2012	48
3.	04/13/2011	06/30/2011	79		8.	01/04/2013	02/06/2013	34
4.	07/28/2011	09/23/2011	58		9.	07/21/2010	08/21/2010	32
5.	09/26/2011	11/18/2011	54		10.	05/23/2012	06/22/2012	31

I ended the week with hits on 2 consectutive days to start a new streak.

The hit-less day on Thursday was my second such day for the year. I set a goal of no more than four hit-less days in 2013, and seeing that I've already had 2 in the first 40 days of the year, that goal is not looking good. To complete that goal, I'm going to have to average 108.3 days per hit streak for the rest of the year. Last year, I only had 9 hit-less days and none at this point in the year. Will be interesting to see if this year ends up worse in regards to hit-less days.

Of the 7 States in which I received hits this past week, none were the first hit for that State in 2013. This is the first week where I haven't added a State to this list, but since I'm almost to the halfway point for this goal, this isn't surprising. Overall I've received hits in 22 States in 2013. Here's how that stands towards my goal of 46 States hit:

0       51

Previous Still Needed for Goal Beyond Goal

Additionally in the past week I received my first hit in 1 county bringing my total of counties hit to 493. The newly hit county was Garfield OK. I set a goal of 98 new counties hit in 2013, and here's a look at my progress towards that goal:

483       581

Previous New Still Needed for Goal

Of the bills hit in the past week, the longest active bill from the bunch was re-entered 4 Years 165 Days 9 Hours 56 Minutes after I originally entered it. That bill is now 2^nd on my all-time longest active list. My top ten longest active bills list is now:

Rank	Bill Info			Time Active	Last Update	Hits
1.	$1	2003A	L4532---3K	4 Years 200 Days 22 Minutes	10/12/2012	1
2.	$1	2003A	L3475---2C	4 Years 165 Days 9 Hours 56 Minutes	02/04/2013	2
3.	$5	2003	DL906---99C	4 Years 56 Days 48 Minutes	09/11/2012	1
4.	$1	2006	H9275---2A	4 Years 17 Days 1 Minute	09/14/2012	2
5.	$10	2006	IB639---42A	4 Years 3 Days 22 Hours 55 Minutes	06/13/2012	1
6.	$20	2004A	GL471---77A	4 Years 1 Day 8 Hours 16 Minutes	11/15/2012	1
7.	$1	2006	L4800---7E	3 Years 357 Days 18 Hours 31 Minutes	09/15/2012	1
8.	$1	2003A	L3475---2C	3 Years 351 Days 1 Hour 42 Minutes	08/08/2012	2
9.	$1	2006	L6169---4G	3 Years 346 Days 6 Hours 55 Minutes	10/26/2012	2
10.	$1	2006	L8814---2F	3 Years 291 Days 17 Minutes	06/13/2012	1

I made predictions regarding bill entries and hits and new bills with hits for 2013. Here's a look at how I'm doing towards those predictions:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	22920	23428	23555	127	635	28920	115.1	23578	+12	-23
Bills with Hits	3704	3825	3842	17	138	5074	26.3	3854	-9	-12
Total Hits	4330	4476	4501	25	171	6030	32.6	4516	-8	-15

It was a good week for bill entries, but not that good for hits. At the current rate I'm entering bills in 2013, I'll end up with 5794 bills entered. To hit my goal of 6000 entries, I'll need to increase my rate to 115.6 bills per week for the rest of the year.

Looking at my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 87.64% so the goal is 88.64%), my percentage is now 87.77% [+0.13%].

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 6000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	20086	20555	20674	119	588	25634	117.4	20674	+2	0
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 5794.375 entries this year rather than 6000						25452	117.6	20675	+1	-1

Regarding my goal of increasing my non-San Francisco FRB entries, here's a table of my current progress:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	G%Goal Percentage	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Meet the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
Boston "A"	781	3.41%	803	3.43%	804	3.41%	3.51%	806	-2
New York "B"	1691	7.38%	1736	7.41%	1745	7.41%	7.58%	1745	0
Philadelphia "C"	656	2.86%	675	2.88%	678	2.88%	2.96%	678	0
Cleveland "D"	819	3.57%	847	3.62%	854	3.63%	3.67%	845	+9
Richmond "E"	1569	6.85%	1617	6.90%	1628	6.91%	7.05%	1619	+9
Atlanta "F"	2096	9.14%	2156	9.20%	2175	9.23%	9.64%	2170	+5
Chicago "G"	1502	6.55%	1550	6.62%	1554	6.60%	6.75%	1550	+4
St. Louis "H"	740	3.23%	759	3.24%	768	3.26%	3.33%	764	+4
Minneapolis "I"	602	2.63%	617	2.63%	619	2.63%	2.73%	622	-3
Kansas City "J"	558	2.43%	572	2.44%	577	2.45%	2.53%	577	0
Dallas "K"	953	4.16%	965	4.12%	968	4.11%	4.36%	986	-18

I'm still looking for Dallas bills to insert, and once I do, it may be a few weeks before I catch up. Cleveland percentage-wise is already halfway to its goal, and I haven't had to insert any "D" bills yet. The only other FRB for which that is the case is Chicago.

This week I got my 3^rd three hit/four State bill which traveled from California -> Utah -> Oregon -> Oklahoma. After getting my second such bill last week, I can't believe that I've already gotten my third. Hopefully the streak continues and I get my fourth next week (unlikely) or perhaps one of the three could get a fourth hit in a fifth State.

The middle of the week was a bit rough, and it's always disappointing to lose a hit streak, but the end of the week gave hope that the upcoming week could be a good one.