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Wednesday, February 1, 2012

WG Predictions/Goals/Wishes Update: January

With the first month of the year in the books, it's a good time to look at how my Where's George predictions, goals, and wishes are doing so far. Surprisingly, one of my wishes has already come true. Good progress is being made all around, and I look forward to more success in February.

  • Predictions
    • 13.66 Bills Entered Per Day
      • I entered 435 bills in January for an average of 14.03 bills per day. To hit this goal, I'll just have to average 13.63 for the rest of the year. The calculations below are assuming that I will still only enter 5000 bills in 2012 even though I'm slightly ahead of that pace.
    • 1231 Hits in 2012 / 4030 Overall Hits
      • I got 126 hits in January which is over 10% of what's needed to hit my 2012 goal. The hit prediction program from the original prediction post calculated that I'd get 1138 more hits in 2012. That would result in 1264 hits in 2012 and 4063 overall. This increases the expected slugging percentage to 18.71%.
    • 1015 Additional Bills with Hits in 2012 / 3445 Overall Bills with Hits
      • Of the 126 hits, 103 were the initial hit on a bill. Thus, in January, I also am at over 10% of the needed amount for this goal. Using the output from the prediction program and Excel, I obtained a calculation of 936 more bills with hits. That would result in 1039 in 2012 and 3469 overall. That increases my expected hit rate to 16.00%
    • State Bingo Completion
      • No new States hit yet. West Virginia and Mississippi, where are you?
    • One Additional California County Hit in 2012 / 52 53 Counties Hit Overall
      • Appears I had my facts wrong when I made this prediction. I already have hits in 52 of California's counties. So I either could call this one complete or up it to 53. I chose the latter. Additional county not hit in January.
    • 17 Additional FRB Bingos / 57 FRB Bingos Overall
      • I'm up to 41 FRB bingos with the one additional completed in January. That's behind the pace needed to meet this prediction.
    • No More Than 13 Hitless Days
      • I didn't have any hitless days in January which was a good way to start the year for this prediction.
    • 80+ Day Hit Streak
      • I completed January with a 35 day hit streak which is a nice start towards this prediction, but there's still quite a ways to go before I can mark this one off.
  • Goals
    • National Rank Under 1000 in November & December
      • My rank was under 1000 for three days near the end of January, but then bounced back above for the last few days. I'm thinking that I should stay below well before November.
    • State Rank Under 75
      • My State rank has been improving, but 80 is about the best it was in January. I've got aways to go, but I think I will get this one.
    • $1s Making Up >87.29% of All Entries
      • I ended the month at 86.44% which puts me one-seventh of the way to the goal. This one should be a slam dunk.
    • More Series 2009 Entries Than 2003A
      • I'm making some progress but there's still a long way to go: 2003A leads 3629 to 1548. This one is going to go down to the wire.
    • Decrease San Francisco "L" FRB Bills Below 50%
      • I'm still at 51.0% where I started the year. My work on the next goal should help this one, but it's concerning that my progress so far hasn't helped.
    • Increase Percentage of Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St. Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J" FRB Bills
      • Cleveland and Kansas City are currently increased while the other four are still even. I have some Boston 2009 $1s coming in the mail, and once I have those, I'll be making progress on 3 of the 6.
    • 30 Zip Codes with 25+ Entries
      • I haven't added a new zip let alone increase any zip to 25 or above. Off to a slow start due to no travels in January. I'm not actually sure that I'll complete this in 2012 without making a special effort.
  • Wishes
    • 5 Hit Bill
      • Three bills made it to the 3 hit plateau in January, and another 20 bills got their second hit, but no fourth or fifth hits in January.
    • New Record Month for Hits
      • My 126 hits in January surpasses the old record of 124 from October. Will be interesting to see if this record falls again in 2012. I don't think February will: the two less days requires almost a third a hit higher for the daily average. Additionally, January "slowed" down near the end of the month: the last 7 days of January had the fewest hits for any 7 day stretch.
    • Surpass 500 2006 L-L $1 Entries
      • I'm now at 487 with 13 to go. That's up 6 from the start of the year. At that rate, I'll hit 500 early April.
    • Surpass 400 Entries with one 2009 FRB/Block Combo and 300 with Another
      • My 2009 LB $1s entries haven't increased as much as I had expected. I'm now at 246 after starting the year at 235. 11 bills a month won't get me to 400. LG entries were crazy in January increasing from 165 to 211. Wouldn't surprise me if LG passes LB in the next couple months. LF entries also improved nicely from 195 to 215.
    • Complete Non-Star Portions of Series 2003A and 2006 $1 Bingo
      • I got a hit on a 2006 KF $1, so one spot out of the eighteen was knocked out. This is probably more of a pipe dream than a wish.
    • 4+ Year Active Bill
      • My 2nd and 5th longest active bills were last hit in January. But neither was close to being active for 4 years. This record is more likely to fall in the second half of the year.

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