Coming into this event with a big lead in the fantasy league, I've decided to focus only on picking winners this week and pass on all outcome betting. For the fights where I'm familiar with the fighters, I could see the fights ending in a few different ways, so this is the safe route.
| Lightweight Match [UFC144-01] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card / Main Event / Championship | |||||||
| Frankie Edgar | Ben Henderson | ||||||
| LW #1 / 645 points | LW #3 / 337 points | ||||||
| 14 - 1 - 1 | 15 - 2 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 4 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 8 Dec | Wins: 2 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 5 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 22.58 | Win Points: 26.32 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.33:1 | 6.65:1 | 1.66:1 | Payout: | 7.13:1 | 1.78:1 | 2.85:1 |
| Max Bet: | 4.29 | 1.76 | 15.15 | Max Bet: | 1.63 | 12.82 | 5.40 |
I'm not sure that I'm picking Henderson because I expect him to win as much as I'm picking him because I want him to win. My actually feeling is that this fight is probably pretty even. As such, the reward is greater if Henderson wins. Being wrong here will be pretty costly, but I've got the lead in the league and it's early in the year, so I'm comfortable making this choice.
| Light Heavyweight Match [UFC144-02] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card / Co-Main Event | |||||||
| Quinton Jackson | Ryan Badar | ||||||
| LHW #5 / 468 points | LHW #15 / 206 points | ||||||
| 32 - 9 - 0 | 13 - 2 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 14 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 11 Dec | Wins: 6 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 18.20 | Win Points: 21.96 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.17:1 | 4.34:1 | 2.76:1 | Payout: | 2.06:1 | 4.12:1 | 3.09:1 |
| Max Bet: | 8.54 | 2.99 | 5.68 | Max Bet: | 9.43 | 3.20 | 4.78 |
Rampage is still an elite light heavyweight. Bader has been impressive except when going aginst elite competition. Jackson has fought often in Japan and should be jazzed up for his return. All of this spells doom for Bader.
| Heavyweight Match [UFC144-03] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card | |||||||
| Cheick Kongo | Mark Hunt | ||||||
| HW #13 / 178 points | HW #35 / 77 points | ||||||
| 17 - 6 - 2 | 7 - 7 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 10 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec | Wins: 4 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 3 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 16.31 | Win Points: 19.75 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.62:1 | 5.38:1 | 4.04:1 | Payout: | 1.66:1 | 7.50:1 | 2.22:1 |
| Max Bet: | 16.12 | 2.28 | 3.28 | Max Bet: | 15.15 | 1.53 | 8.19 |
Hunt does not impress me much. Kongo seems to currently be a gatekeeper to the upper tier (after failing to get to the upper tier) and has kept Pat Barry and Matt Mitrione out. Hunt isn't at Barry or Mitrione's level, and Cheick shouldn't have a problem dispatching him.
| Welterweight Match [UFC144-04] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card | |||||||
| Jake Shields | Yoshihiro Akiyama | ||||||
| WW #5 / 376 points | MW #67 / 88 points | ||||||
| 26 - 6 - 1 | 13 - 4 - 0 (2 NC) | ||||||
| Wins: 3 (T)KO, 10 Sub, 13 Dec | Wins: 6 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 1 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 15.73 | Win Points: 20.81 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 7.50:1 | 2.47:1 | 1.90:1 | Payout: | 2.06:1 | 2.06:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 1.53 | 6.80 | 11.11 | Max Bet: | 9.43 | 9.43 | 1.53 |
"Sexyama" has been disappointing in his four fight UFC run dropping his last three. This will be his first fight at welterweight. Shields also hasn't been that impressive since moving over to the UFC, but he had an amazing streak in Strikeforce before that. The weight cut will be rough for Akiyama, and Shields win manhandle him for the win.
| Middleweight Match [UFC144-05] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card | |||||||
| Yushin Okami | Tim Boetsch | ||||||
| MW #8 / 306 points | MW #26 / 159 points | ||||||
| 26 - 6 - 0 | 14 - 4 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 9 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 12 Dec, 1 Other | Wins: 6 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 3 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 17.10 | Win Points: 19.96 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.64:1 | 5.94:1 | 1.98:1 | Payout: | 2.22:1 | 2.66:1 | 4.43:1 |
| Max Bet: | 6.09 | 2.02 | 10.20 | Max Bet: | 8.19 | 6.02 | 2.91 |
Okami has wins over a lot of top middleweights. Boetsch has won his two middleweight fights, and the UFC appears to be looking to see if he's for real. Okami is probably a bit too much for him at this point.
| Featherweight Match [UFC144-06] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card | |||||||
| Hatsu Hioki | Bart Palaszewski | ||||||
| FW #8 / 171 points | FW #9 / 169 points | ||||||
| 25 - 4 - 2 | 36 - 14 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 6 (T)KO, 10 Sub, 9 Dec | Wins: 17 (T)KO, 11 Sub, 8 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 18.99 | Win Points: 19.05 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.96:1 | 2.38:1 | 2.64:1 | Payout: | 2.01:1 | 3.11:1 | 4.28:1 |
| Max Bet: | 3.37 | 7.24 | 6.09 | Max Bet: | 9.90 | 4.73 | 3.04 |
Palaszewski was impressive in his UFC 137 while Hioki was not. Hatsu Hioki was brought into the UFC to challenge Jose Aldo, and it's likely the winner of this match gets Aldo next. "Bartimus" seemed like a douchbag in the WEC, and I can't see a world where he'd challenge for a UFC title. Hioki needs to win for that to be avoided.
| Lightweight Match [UFC144-07] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card | |||||||
| Joe Lauzon | Anthony Pettis | ||||||
| LW #11 / 187 points | LW #19 / 162 points | ||||||
| 21 - 6 - 0 | 14 - 2 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 5 (T)KO, 16 Sub, 0 Dec | Wins: 5 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 3 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 17.95 | Win Points: 18.60 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.99:1 | 1.25:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 2.66:1 | 2.22:1 | 4.43:1 |
| Max Bet: | 3.34 | 17.95 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 6.02 | 8.19 | 2.91 |
Lauzon looked impressive taking Melvin Guillard out in less than a minute. Pettis is looking to move back up towards the top and attempt to reclaim his lost title shot. Pettis is more patient and less cocky than Guillard and should give Lauzon more than he can handle.
| Lightweight Match [UFC144-08] | |||||||
| FX | |||||||
| Takanori Gomi | Eiji Mitsuoka | ||||||
| LW #43 / 108 points | LW #91 / 72 points | ||||||
| 33 - 8 - 0 (1 NC) | 18 - 7 - 2 | ||||||
| Wins: 13 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 14 Dec | Wins: 3 (T)KO, 11 Sub, 4 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 8.86 | Win Points: 9.78 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.41:1 | 5.23:1 | 2.24:1 | Payout: | 5.70:1 | 1.55:1 | 4.28:1 |
| Max Bet: | 7.09 | 2.36 | 8.06 | Max Bet: | 2.12 | 9.78 | 3.04 |
Gomi is not having a good run in the UFC with a poor 1-3 record although against good competition. Mitsuoka has fought a bunch of opponents whose names I don't recognize. I'm going to go with Gomi due to more impressive experience.
| Bantamweight Match [UFC144-09] | |||||||
| FX | |||||||
| Vaughan Lee | Norifumi Yamamoto | ||||||
| BW #116 / 37 points | BW #117 / 37 points | ||||||
| 11 - 7 - 1 | 18 - 5 - 0 (1 NC) | ||||||
| Wins: 4 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 1 Dec | Wins: 13 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 3 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 7.02 | Win Points: 7.02 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.61:1 | 1.74:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 1.32:1 | 7.50:1 | 5.70:1 |
| Max Bet: | 6.21 | 7.02 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 7.02 | 1.53 | 2.12 |
"Kid" Yamamoto used to be the biggest deal when it came to featherweights but has come up short in most of his recent fights. Vaughan Lee? I'm not seeing what the big deal about this guy is. This fight feels like the UFC is giving Yamamoto the opportunity to win one in his home country.
| Middleweight Match [UFC144-10] | |||||||
| FX | |||||||
| Riki Fukuda | Steve Cantwell | ||||||
| MW #60 / 95 points | MW #287 / 30 points | ||||||
| 17 - 5 - 0 | 7 - 5 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 7 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 9 Dec | Wins: 4 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 0 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 6.84 | Win Points: 8.74 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.31:1 | 7.50:1 | 1.79:1 | Payout: | 1.66:1 | 2.22:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 6.84 | 1.53 | 6.84 | Max Bet: | 8.74 | 8.19 | 1.53 |
I will forever be thankful that Cantwell knocked off the arrogant Brian Stann in their WEC light heavyweight championship fight. But honestly, this guy has lost four in a row in the UFC. Why is he still around? Fukuda doesn't have an impressive history to me, but it's hard to not see him getting past Cantwell.
| Bantamweight Match [UFC144-11] | |||||||
| FX | |||||||
| Takeya Mizugaki | Chris Cariaso | ||||||
| BW #14 / 112 points | BW #57 / 56 points | ||||||
| 15 - 6 - 2 | 12 - 3 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 5 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 9 Dec | Wins: 2 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 8 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 10.84 | Win Points: 12.75 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.85:1 | 7.50:1 | 1.58:1 | Payout: | 5.70:1 | 5.70:1 | 1.43:1 |
| Max Bet: | 5.40 | 1.53 | 10.84 | Max Bet: | 2.12 | 2.12 | 12.75 |
Mizugaki has a fantastic gas tank and is a ton of fun to watch. Cariaso lacks any impressive wins in his past. Mizugaki's experience against much tougher opponents should help lead him to victory here.
| Featherweight Match [UFC144-12] | |||||||
| N/A | |||||||
| Tiequan Zhang | Issei Tamura | ||||||
| FW #126 / 43 points | FW #142 / 41 points | ||||||
| 15 - 2 - 0 | 6 - 2 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 3 (T)KO, 12 Sub, 0 Dec | Wins: 1 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 5 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 3.57 | Win Points: 3.61 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 4.75:1 | 1.19:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 5.70:1 | 7.50:1 | 1.14:1 |
| Max Bet: | 2.66 | 3.57 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 2.12 | 1.53 | 3.61 |
Zhang was suppose to be fighting Leonard Garcia, but Tamura was asked to step in when Garcia pulled out due to injury. Zhang definitely seems like the bigger deal of these two, and perhaps will get his matchup with Garcia later after dispatching with Tamura.
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