| Welterweight Match [FUEL1-01] | |||||||
| Fuel / Main Card / Main Event | |||||||
| Jake Ellenberger | Diego Sanchez | ||||||
| WW #3 / 443 points | WW #10 / 266 points | ||||||
| 26 - 5 - 0 | 23 - 4 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 17 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 4 Dec | Wins: 6 (T)KO, 9 Sub, 8 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 14.55 | Win Points: 16.46 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.45:1 | 4.94:1 | 6.18:1 | Payout: | 3.64:1 | 2.43:1 | 2.73:1 |
| Max Bet: | 14.55 | 2.53 | 1.93 | Max Bet: | 3.78 | 6.99 | 5.78 |
This is really a good fight that feels like it's being wasted as the headliner for a FuelTV card. Ellenberger last lost in 2009 in a split decision loss to the newly crown interim welterweight champion, Carlos Condit. Sanchez's return to welterweight started off slow with a split decision loss to John Hathaway, but then he picked up nice wins against Paulo Thiago and Martin Kampmann. Sanchez has only been stopped once (and that was via doctor stoppage). I think Ellenberger will be too much for Sanchez. There's a juicy payoff if Jake wins by decision, and it's big enough for me to make that wager.
| Heavyweight Match [FUEL1-02] | |||||||
| Fuel / Main Card / Co-Main Event | |||||||
| Dave Herman | Stefan Struve | ||||||
| HW #24 / 102 points | HW #30 / 83 points | ||||||
| 21 - 2 - 0 | 22 - 5 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 15 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 1 Dec | Wins: 5 (T)KO, 15 Sub, 1 Dec, 1 Other | ||||||
| Win Points: 12.18 | Win Points: 12.82 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.33:1 | 3.99:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 3.99:1 | 1.33:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 12.18 | 3.34 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 3.34 | 12.82 | 1.53 |
I'm not all that familiar with Herman (I did see his last fight: a victory against the less-than-impressive John Olav Einemo). He doesn't come off to me as a guy super dedicated to the sport. Struve has had some success in the UFC but tends to fail in fights where he could "move up the ladder" (Browne, Nelson, Dos Santos). Although he's the "underdog" here, I don't see this as a "move up" fight for him. I think Herman will encounter difficulties with Stefan's size advantage and Struve will pick up his second win in a row.
| Middleweight Match [FUEL1-03] | |||||||
| Fuel / Main Card | |||||||
| Aaron Simpson | Ronny Markes | ||||||
| MW #36 / 121 points | LHW #42 / 91 points | ||||||
| 11 - 2 - 0 | 12 - 1 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 6 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 4 Dec | Wins: 5 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 3 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 10.63 | Win Points: 11.26 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.74:1 | 7.50:1 | 2.61:1 | Payout: | 2.28:1 | 2.85:1 | 3.80:1 |
| Max Bet: | 10.63 | 1.53 | 6.21 | Max Bet: | 7.81 | 5.40 | 3.57 |
My current gut opinion of Simpson is that he is a bit of scrub, but he does have a lot of wins against middle-of-the-pack UFC fighters while only losing to Leban and Munoz. This will be Markes second UFC fight (his first was at light heavy, but I think middleweight is his "normal" weight). He does own a recent win against the once highly regarded Paulo Filho. Other than that, I'm not blown away by his fight history. I don't see anything that makes me believe he can derail the "A-Train". Since Simpson's last three wins all came by decision, I'll make a wager that this'll be the fourth.
| Heavyweight Match [FUEL1-04] | |||||||
| Fuel / Main Card | |||||||
| Stipe Miocic | Philip De Fries | ||||||
| HW #26 / 95 points | HW #54 / 59 points | ||||||
| 7 - 0 - 0 | 8 - 0 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 5 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 1 Dec | Wins: 0 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 1 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 10.45 | Win Points: 11.73 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.33:1 | 6.65:1 | 6.65:1 | Payout: | 7.50:1 | 1.09:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 10.45 | 1.76 | 1.76 | Max Bet: | 1.53 | 11.73 | 1.53 |
Someone's "oh" has got to go! This is the sophomore event for both fighters with both earning decision victories (each's only) in their UFC debuts. Miocic was given the tough task of Joey Beltran while De Fries took on Rob Broughton. Miocic is a knockout specialist (his submission win is due to "leg kick") while De Fries is a submission artist. Beltran hadn't been knocked out prior, so it's understandable that Miocic didn't knock him out either. Broughton had tapped out twice, but De Fries couldn't get him. Based on such, I'm picking Miocic via TKO (no wager due to lack of value).
| Bantamweight Match [FUEL1-05] | |||||||
| Fuel / Main Card | |||||||
| Walel Watson | T.J. Dillashaw | ||||||
| BW #59 / 54 points | NR / 14 points | ||||||
| 9 - 3 - 0 | 4 - 1 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 2 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 0 Dec | Wins: 1 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 1 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 6.81 | Win Points: 8.98 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 4.28:1 | 1.22:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 3.80:1 | 1.90:1 | 3.80:1 |
| Max Bet: | 3.04 | 6.81 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 3.57 | 8.98 | 3.57 |
Dillashaw is coming off of the first loss of his young career in the Ultimate Fighter finale in the batamweight "championship" (what do they call it?) match. Watson is a finisher with none of his nine wins going to decision. I don't have a strong feeling either way on this one so I'm going with T.J. because he's the underdog (therefore worth more points) and trains locally with Team Alpha Male. T.J.'s road to victory will be through his wrestling: controlling Watson and preventing him from getting offensive positions for submission attempts. While I lean towards this going to decision, I don't feel comfortable taking the risk on the wager.
| Bantamweight Match [FUEL1-06] | |||||||
| N/A | |||||||
| Ivan Menjivar | John Albert | ||||||
| BW #48 / 62 points | BW #105 / 39 points | ||||||
| 23 - 8 - 0 | 7 - 1 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 9 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 6 Dec | Wins: 4 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 0 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 5.54 | Win Points: 6.20 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.43:1 | 2.73:1 | 3.64:1 | Payout: | 1.66:1 | 2.22:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 5.54 | 5.54 | 3.78 | Max Bet: | 6.20 | 6.20 | 1.53 |
We're now into the "Who?" portion of the fight card. Picking the prelims of a card shown on the station that normally carries the prelims is not going to be an easy task. Ivan has lost to a number of names I recognize (also has beat one but not a fighter I respect). Albert is an "also ran" from TUF 14, and as such, I'd prefer he go away. So I'll take Ivan "Pride of El Salvador" Menjivar to get the victory by method unknown.
| Featherweight Match [FUEL1-07] | |||||||
| N/A | |||||||
| Johnathan Brookins | Vagner Rocha | ||||||
| FW #54 / 68 points | LW #194 / 45 points | ||||||
| 12 - 4 - 0 | 7 - 2 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 2 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 2 Dec | Wins: 1 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 1 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 4.56 | Win Points: 5.00 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 5.70:1 | 1.43:1 | 5.70:1 | Payout: | 6.65:1 | 1.33:1 | 6.65:1 |
| Max Bet: | 2.12 | 4.56 | 2.12 | Max Bet: | 1.76 | 5.00 | 1.76 |
Brookins is the surprise winner of the 12th season of TUF. He's lost his only UFC fight since. I was surprised to see that he had a loss to Jose Aldo in the WEC. Rocha has a short UFC history: a loss to Cerone and a win against TUF's Code McKenzie. This will be his first fight at featherweight. Neither impressives me much, but Rocha impressively went to a decision against Cerone, so I'll take him.
| Light Heavyweight Match [FUEL1-08] | |||||||
| N/A | |||||||
| Buddy Roberts | Sean Loeffler | ||||||
| LHW #72 / 57 points | LHW #136 / 33 points | ||||||
| 11 - 2 - 0 | 25 - 5 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 4 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 2 Dec | Wins: 11 (T)KO, 13 Sub, 1 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 4.41 | Win Points: 5.03 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.61:1 | 2.09:1 | 5.23:1 | Payout: | 2.16:1 | 1.83:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 4.41 | 4.41 | 2.36 | Max Bet: | 5.03 | 5.03 | 1.53 |
Two octagon newcomers that historically finish their opponents both with slightly more submission victories than TKOs. Roberts lacks a nickname while Loeffler is "The Destroyer". Loeffler looks more badass too. I think there'll be a finish but no clue which.
| Lightweight Match [FUEL1-09] | |||||||
| N/A | |||||||
| Anton Kuivanen | Justin Salas | ||||||
| LW #40 / 113 points | LW #79 / 79 points | ||||||
| 16 - 4 - 0 | 9 - 3 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 4 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 4 Dec | Wins: 3 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 3 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 6.37 | Win Points: 6.96 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.80:1 | 1.90:1 | 3.80:1 | Payout: | 2.85:1 | 2.85:1 | 2.85:1 |
| Max Bet: | 3.57 | 6.37 | 3.57 | Max Bet: | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.40 |
Another fight between two UFC newcomers. Kuivanen has won nine in a row spanning back to 2008. Salas has five in a row spanning back to 2009 including a win over UFC flameout Robert Emerson. My gut says Anton. I have to pick someone, so we'll go with the gut.
| Lightweight Match [FUEL1-10] | |||||||
| N/A | |||||||
| Tim Means | Barnardo Magalhaes | ||||||
| LW #72 / 82 points | LW #154 / 51 points | ||||||
| 16 - 3 - 0 | 11 - 1 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 12 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 1 Dec | Wins: 0 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 9 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 4.27 | Win Points: 4.79 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.27:1 | 5.07:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 7.50:1 | 5.23:1 | 1.16:1 |
| Max Bet: | 4.27 | 2.45 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 1.53 | 2.36 | 4.79 |
This is the third verse of the UFC virgins song. Means is a late replacement but has the better resume of the two. Magalhaes has a lot of wins by decision which I find concerning in a pre-UFC career. Throw in the coolness of Means nickname, "The Dirty Bird", and I'll pick Means to win.
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