I've decided to go with a new format for my UFC fantasy league posts. Rather than having two posts (one for the pick sheet and one for my picks), I'm going to combine the two into just a pick post. The pick sheet post was pretty worthless in retrospective, and the pick post didn't make total sense with seeing the pick sheet at the same time. I think this format will be much better, and if I get bored, I may go back and "fix" the previous posts.
I'm making less outcome wagers this week. Although I've had success with them so far, I'm looking to minimize risk as I currently have almost a 50 point lead. Making wagers with a small upside no longer seem to be worth it. Additionally, my picks at the top of the card seem to be based more on emotion (who I want to win) rather than logic (who I think will win). We'll see how that turns out for me.
| Welterweight Match [UFC143-01] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card / Main Event / Interim Championship | |||||||
| Nick Diaz | Carlos Condit | ||||||
| WW #2 / 488 points | WW #8 / 336 points | ||||||
| 26 - 7 - 0 (1 NC) | 27 - 5 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 13 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 5 Dec | Wins: 13 (T)KO, 13 Sub, 1 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 21.63 | Win Points: 23.70 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.90:1 | 3.09:1 | 4.94:1 | Payout: | 1.97:1 | 1.97:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 11.11 | 4.78 | 2.53 | Max Bet: | 10.30 | 10.30 | 1.53 |
Condit is one of my favorite fighters, so I have to go with him here. I wish he had gotten to fight Penn last October as a true test to see if he's really ready for this. My biggest question is whether or not he can handle all of the punishment Diaz is going to deliver. Carlos hasn't been (T)KO'd in an MMA fight. Diaz hasn't been submitted. Both have been in fights scheduled for 5 rounds, but only Diaz (once) has had one of those fights go the distance. It feels like Carlos is likely going to need to win via (T)KO, but I can see him potentially pulling off the submission finish also.
| Heavyweight Match [UFC143-02] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card / Co-Main Event | |||||||
| Fabricio Werdum | Roy Nelson | ||||||
| HW #6 / 328 points | HW #17 / 128 points | ||||||
| 14 - 5 - 1 | 16 - 6 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 4 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 2 Dec | Wins: 9 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 2 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 18.00 | Win Points: 22.21 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.33:1 | 1.66:1 | 6.65:1 | Payout: | 1.69:1 | 3.04:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 4.29 | 15.15 | 1.76 | Max Bet: | 14.49 | 4.90 | 1.53 |
I don't care if Werdum beat a past-his-prime Fedor. Werdum's effort against Overeem in his fight that followed was pathetic. His last run in the UFC was also less than impressive. "Big Country" can't seem to get over the hump and win a big fight, but I think he'll finally get it done here. Nelson's last 7 victories all have come by (T)KO. Based on my risk-adverse stratedy this event, I'll pass on the result wager as the payoff is too low.
| Welterweight Match [UFC143-03] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card | |||||||
| Josh Koscheck | Mike Pierce | ||||||
| WW #5 / 363 points | WW #25 / 171 points | ||||||
| 16 - 5 - 0 | 13 - 4 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 5 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 6 Dec | Wins: 6 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 6 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 17.26 | Win Points: 20.55 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.04:1 | 3.04:1 | 2.53:1 | Payout: | 2.06:1 | 7.50:1 | 2.06:1 |
| Max Bet: | 4.90 | 4.90 | 6.53 | Max Bet: | 9.43 | 1.53 | 9.43 |
Pierce prefers to win by (T)KO, and Koscheck only has one (T)KO loss (to Paulo Thiago). Koscheck showed his ability to absorb damage in his last five rounder with GSP. I just can't see Pierce riding Kos to a decision victory. Moreso it's going the other way. All of Pierce's losses have been decisions, and this'll be another one. As a side note, a win by Koscheck and Condit could get Kos a shot at the interim title if GSP no longer hurries back to face off against Diaz.
| Bantamweight Match [UFC143-04] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card | |||||||
| Renan Barao | Scott Jorgensen | ||||||
| BW #6 / 145 points | BW #8 / 127 points | ||||||
| 27 - 1 - 0 (1 NC) | 13 - 4 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 6 (T)KO, 13 Sub, 8 Dec | Wins: 2 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 7 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 18.91 | Win Points: 19.55 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 4.28:1 | 1.97:1 | 3.21:1 | Payout: | 6.18:1 | 3.09:1 | 1.76:1 |
| Max Bet: | 3.04 | 10.30 | 4.52 | Max Bet: | 1.93 | 4.78 | 13.15 |
Jorgensen is a tool. I had to suffer live through his lame fight against Jeff Curran at UFC 137. I can't stand his stupid colored mohawk. I'd like to see him get KTFO, but maybe Barao will snap an important limb instead.
| Middleweight Match [UFC143-05] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card | |||||||
| Ed Herman | Clifford Starks | ||||||
| MW #30 / 130 points | MW #93 / 72 points | ||||||
| 19 - 8 - 0 | 8 - 0 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 5 (T)KO, 12 Sub, 2 Dec | Wins: 3 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 4 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 13.98 | Win Points: 16.10 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.61:1 | 1.50:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 2.53:1 | 7.50:1 | 1.90:1 |
| Max Bet: | 3.83 | 13.98 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 6.53 | 1.53 | 11.11 |
Starks is a potential up-and-comer. Herman is being used to see if Clifford has what it takes or not. Starks also fought at UFC 137 and was another pre-lim decision winner, but I vaguely recall him seeming like he had potential. I'm picking him here based on my vague recollection.
| Featherweight Match [UFC143-06] | |||||||
| FX | |||||||
| Dustin Poirier | Max Holloway | ||||||
| FW #15 / 139 points | LW #277 / 36 points | ||||||
| 11 - 1 - 0 | 4 - 0 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 5 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 2 Dec | Wins: 1 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 3 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 8.67 | Win Points: 11.34 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.09:1 | 2.61:1 | 5.23:1 | Payout: | 3.80:1 | 7.50:1 | 1.27:1 |
| Max Bet: | 8.67 | 6.21 | 2.36 | Max Bet: | 3.57 | 1.53 | 11.34 |
Holloway only has four professional fights and none on the big time stage. He's the second replacement opponent for Poirier. It's hard to know much about Holloway, but Poirier has done well in the UFC so far, and I can't see this fight stopping his momentum.
| Welterweight Match [UFC143-07] | |||||||
| FX | |||||||
| Henry Martinez | Matt Riddle | ||||||
| FW #52 / 71 points | WW #146 / 55 points | ||||||
| 8 - 1 - 0 | 5 - 3 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 2 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 2 Dec | Wins: 1 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 3 Dec, 1 Other | ||||||
| Win Points: 7.98 | Win Points: 8.34 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.80:1 | 1.90:1 | 3.80:1 | Payout: | 3.80:1 | 7.50:1 | 1.27:1 |
| Max Bet: | 3.57 | 7.98 | 3.57 | Max Bet: | 3.57 | 1.53 | 8.34 |
Riddle is less than impressive, but Martinez is a featherweight/lightweight moving up to take this fight on short notice and will likely be fighting just about at his "walking around" weight. Riddle, the bigger man, had better be able to throw his weight around and get the decision victory. The payoff on that wager isn't enough to make it worth betting.
| Bantamweight Match [UFC143-08] | |||||||
| FX | |||||||
| Alex Caceres | Edwin Figueroa | ||||||
| BW #38 / 69 points | BW #67 / 49 points | ||||||
| 6 - 4 - 0 | 8 - 1 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 2 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 1 Dec | Wins: 6 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 0 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 9.64 | Win Points: 10.49 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.85:1 | 1.90:1 | 5.70:1 | Payout: | 1.27:1 | 3.80:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 5.40 | 9.64 | 2.12 | Max Bet: | 10.49 | 3.57 | 1.53 |
Alex "Bruce Leroy" Caceres should enjoy the last few moments of his Ultimate Fighter fame while he still has it. He's 1-2 in the UFC and 2-4 in his last six fights. I'm not sure how he got to be #38 in the bantomweight division, but Figueroa should knock him down a few pegs as Edwin works his way to the top.
| Welterweight Match [UFC143-09] | |||||||
| FX | |||||||
| Matt Brown | Chris Cope | ||||||
| WW #91 / 73 points | WW #342 / 31 points | ||||||
| 12 - 11 - 0 | 5 - 2 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 6 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 1 Dec | Wins: 2 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 3 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 6.09 | Win Points: 7.40 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.90:1 | 2.28:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 2.38:1 | 7.50:1 | 1.58:1 |
| Max Bet: | 6.09 | 6.09 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 7.24 | 1.53 | 7.40 |
Cope was thrust upon us by a better than expected run in the Ultimate Fighter (a common theme is my lack of enjoyment of Ultimate Fighter losers from the more recent seasons still fighting in the UFC). Brown is far from stellar himself, but will easily outclass "C-Murder" (two TKO victories should not get one that nickname).
| Welterweight Match [UFC143-10] | |||||||
| N/A | |||||||
| Daniel Stittgen | Stephen Thompson | ||||||
| WW #362 / 30 points | WW #378 / 29 points | ||||||
| 7 - 1 - 0 | 5 - 0 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 1 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 1 Dec | Wins: 2 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 2 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 2.05 | Win Points: 2.07 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 6.65:1 | 1.33:1 | 6.65:1 | Payout: | 2.38:1 | 4.75:1 | 2.38:1 |
| Max Bet: | 1.76 | 2.05 | 1.76 | Max Bet: | 2.07 | 2.07 | 2.07 |
In a fight between "Who's That" versus "Who's This?" where both have only fight "Who Thems?", it's best to just go with the "Who?" with the best record.
| Middleweight Match [UFC143-11] | |||||||
| N/A | |||||||
| Rafael Natal | Michael Kuiper | ||||||
| MW #72 / 84 points | MW #287 / 29 points | ||||||
| 13 - 3 - 1 | 11 - 0 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 3 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 3 Dec | Wins: 6 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 1 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 3.71 | Win Points: 4.67 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 4.12:1 | 1.76:1 | 4.12:1 | Payout: | 1.74:1 | 2.61:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 3.20 | 3.71 | 3.20 | Max Bet: | 4.67 | 4.67 | 1.53 |
Natal has faced much tougher competition than Kuiper and will use that experience to give Kuiper his first loss.
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