Where's George Calendar Day Bingo

Some hardcore Where's George fans tend to have an "obsession" with bingos, and I certainly fall into that category. As such, I wasn't really surprised when talk about "calendar day bingo" started up. Calendar day bingo is achieved once you have a hit on each of the 366 calendar days. With this being a leap year, there's an opportunity to get February 29 for those that need it.

I started Georging in August of 2007, and as such, was pretty sure that I was missing February 29. Knowing that I only had 19 hitless days last year, that made 20 possible spots still needed to complete. With a decent number of hits in 2010, I would have guessed that February 29 was likely the only date I still needed. I was wrong.

I indeed was missing February 29 but found that I was also missing hits on March 24 and July 1. Hopefully I get all three this year, but it would be humorous if I got a hit on February 29, but didn't get a hit on one of the other two until 2016.

Hopefully this post hasn't jinxed my hit chances for tomorrow!

The Week That Was: 02/20/2012 - 02/26/2012

This week has been more exciting than the past weeks. I celebrated "Pancake Day" with friends on Tuesday, attended a Poker Night on Friday, and went out to the bar for UFC 144. All the activity played a bit of havoc with my weight management plans.

Weight Management
With all that was going on this week along with my mother-in-law sending cookies home with me on Sunday, I decided that I'd take a break from trying to lose weight this week. I went well over the "loss" calorie amount but stayed within "maintain" calories up until Sunday when I went a bit out of control. I didn't feel particular good on Sunday as a result, and hopefully that feeling will help me get back onto the wagon. Regardless of the break, I still had a descent week weight-wise lowering both my minimum and average by 0.4 from the previous week and the max weight was 1.2 pounds down:

	Min	Max	Avg
02/13/2012 - 02/19/2012	170.6	173.8	171.7
02/20/2012 - 02/26/2012	170.2	172.6	171.3

I expect that my stats next week will suffer from my freedom this week. But I'll deal with that next week. The weigh-in of 170.2 was my lowest of the year, but I still can't break through the 170 mark. Probably going to have to wait a few weeks to get there.

Running
Feeling some pain in the "ball" of my left foot, I opted to not go for a mid-week short, fast run. I still went out for my long weekend run, and fueled by the increased calories I was eating, I ran faster and further than last week. I completed the initial 10K of the run in 67:47 (nearly a minute faster than last week) and completed 7.42 miles in 80 minutes (compared to 7.25 last week). My left foot is feeling good after the long run, so I'm hoping to do a fast 20 minute run on Tuesday.

Still waiting to sign up for the Folsom Shamrock 10K. I'm wondering if perhaps that run won't happen as it's getting close to race date, and it seems not worthwhile for the coordinators to fly in from Vegas to run the event if there are not a lot of participants. There is a 10K in Elk Grove one weekend later that I can run as a backup if the Shamrock run doesn't happen.

Pancake Day
Pancake Day being the British version of Mardi Gras (the original Mardi Gras not the New Orleans version) or at least that's how my buddy Dave describes it. At Pancake Day, Dave and I had our first drink of Captain Morgan since the NFC Championship experience. We didn't have much, and it definitely tasted good: Captain and Coke Zero is a tasty duo. Although I'd say that the pancakes were really crepes (and delicious!), Pancake Day was fantastic. Looking forward to celebrating every year.

Poker Night
The first poker night of the year was a barn-burner. Although we only had seven players, a lot of chips moved around the table and the pots were larger than usual. I'd say this was the most entertaining poker night in a few years. I'm still disappointed in the decrease in attendance (we use to get ~10 accepts per poker night), but seven is a good number as long as most stick around (we had six when the game broke up at midnight). I came out a whopping $2 ahead. The top winner (the only guy who left early) won $14 which is the largest in quite some time (if ever).

UFC Fantasy League
Yet again another good week for me although I finished second I still scored ~30 points more than the player in second. Henderson winning the title fight saved the night for me as I would have been last had the decision gone the other way which it easily could have. Funny to think that the UFC will be taking over a month off after this Friday's event.

UFC Fights I Want Made After UFC 144

The main event in last night's UFC 144 was fantastic. I could accept either fighter being named the winner, but was happy when Bruce Buffer announced that Henderson had won. There's a lot of talk of an immediate rematch or trying to convince Edgar to move down. I'm against having the immediate rematch: the lightweight title has been tied up for too long and there are other fighters worthy of a shot. With that said, I think if Edgar stays at lightweight, one win should be all it takes to get him another crack at Benson (assuming he wins his first defense). With that said, what do I want to see?

Benson Henderson versus Nate Diaz or Anthony Pettis
There are a lot of interesting title matches now that Henderson won, however, there's a good number of top lightweights coming off losses or that have already lost to Bendo. Nate Diaz is not in that category, and so if Diaz gets past Miller, he deserves the shot. If Miller wins, it seems too soon for Miller/Henderson II, so giving Henderson the opportunity to avenge his most recent loss (to Pettis) makes the most sense. The first fight between the two was a tightly contested classic. There's no reason to believe the rematch won't also be hot.

Frankie Edgar versus Jim Miller, Clay Guida, or Chad Mendes
Miller and Edgar have fought before, but it was in 2006, not in the UFC, and the fight went to decision. If Miller gets past Diaz, he'd deserve a title shot, but just having fought Henderson in January, he probably wouldn't get one yet. Matching Miller up with Edgar with the winner earning a title shot (even if it's against Henderson) makes sense. If Miller loses, Guida would be an attractive alternative. If the UFC can convince Edgar to drop to featherweight, a matchup with Chad Mendes to see if Edgar was ready for Jose Aldo would make sense. Sure, Edgar could be given an immediate title shot against Aldo, but giving him a trial run at cutting to 145 seems like it'd make for a better title fight later.

Ryan Badar versus the Alexander Gustafsson/Antonio Rogerio Nogueira winner
Perhaps Bader deserves a bigger step up than this for beating Rampage, but I'm not sold on him as a title contender especially since that was a poor looking Jackson. As such, I think this matchup provides the ability for the winner to take on a bigger opponent with a win bringing about the title opportunity.

Rampage Jackson versus the Alexander Gustafsson/Antonio Rogerio Nogueira loser
Quentin looked awful in his lost to Bader, and we may have seen the end of his days at the top of the lightweight divison. Rampage and the loser of the Gustafsson/Nogueira fight will both be in need of a win and matching them up is the best way to guarantee that one of them gets it.

Mark Hunt versus Mike Russow
What to do with the Super Samoan? I certainly didn't expect him to defeat Kongo. Hunt is now on a three fight win streak but his gas tank is certainly a question. Russow has proven his ability to take damage and keep fighting and should force Hunt to prove he has the cardio to last longer and still drop bombs.

Jake Shields versus Martin Kampmann/Thiago Alves winner
GSP's extended time on the mend has jumbled up the welterweight division. The creation of the interim title was a good start, but if the UFC doesn't have Condit defend it before GSP gets back, it really isn't helping much. Ellenberger deserves to get the interim shot, and if he doesn't, he deserves the Koscheck/Hendricks winner over Shields. As such, the next best option is to give Shields the winner of Kampmann/Alves. Shields split decision win over Kampmann was questionable, so I don't think having them rematch would be considered too soon.

Tim Boetsch versus Chris Weidman
Boetsch moved himself up the middleweight charts by taking out the most recent title contender in dramatic fashion. Weidman also is coming off of a win against a former title challenger. Matching up the two should put the winner in position to take part in a #1 contender's match.

Hatsu Hioki versus Jose Aldo
Hioki was brought in the UFC to be a contender to Aldo's throne. After a lackluster performance against George Roop, Hioki was by far way more impressive in his defeat of Palaszewski. Now is the time to cash in and match him up with Aldo. No one else in the division (unless Edgar moves down) is really title shot ready at this point, but there are a number of fighters that are close to being there.

Anthony Pettis versus Benson Henderson or Gray Maynard
I've already discussed the Henderson/Pettis matchup above. If Nate Diaz were to get the shot instead (perhaps Pettis gets a shot in May/June and Diaz gets winner?), pitting Pettis against Maynard is a good way to have Pettis definitively earn a title shot.

My Where's George Week in Review: 02/19/12 - 02/25/12

In the past week, I received 24 hits in 8 States [CA¹⁴, GA, IN, MA, OR², TX, UT, WA²] as well as an international hit in Chester, United Kingdom. I now have hits in 26 States in 2012 with 1 new this week: IN.

Of those 24 hits, 3 were the 2^nd hit on the bill and the rest (21) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 2 Years 324 Days 18 Hours 29 Minutes after I originally entered it.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
19	20	21	22	23	24	25
3	3	6	3	5	2	2

The 24 hits received in the past week were the fewest of any week so far in 2012. Regardless, I still got a hit each day to continue my hit streak. The streak is now at 60 days and is my second longest all-time. With the top streak going for 79 days, this streak still has a ways to go before it catches up.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, this week was basically an "even" week for all three stats. I fell an additional bill behind on the needed entering rate and was two "bills with hits" above what was needed. This week was what I was expecting a typical week to turn out to be at the beginning of the year.

	SoY	SoW	EoW	WΔ	YΔ	P	P/W	PtD	WvP	DvP
Bills Entered	16720	17388	17483	95	763	21720	95.6	17485	-1	-2
Bills with Hits	2430	2589	2610	21	180	3445	19.4	2585	+2	+25
Total Hits	2799	2998	3022	24	223	4030	23.5	2987	+0	+35

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 86.53% [+0.24%]. I fell a couple bills behind in this category also, but it's hard to not think that, for the most part, this was also "even" for the week.

	SoY	SoW	EoW	WΔ	YΔ	G	GfW	GtD	WvG	DvG
$1s Entered	14427	15044	15128	84	701	18959	86.1	15119	-2	+9

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, here's a goal where progress was made. After decreasing the deficit to below 2000 last week, it went below 1900 this week. I expect that the "hundreds" milestones will likely get surpassed every other week from here on in.

	SoY	SoW	EoW	WΔ	YΔ			WΔ	YΔ	WvG	DvG
2003A	3603	3644	3650	6	47		Goal	43	346	+5	+23
2009	1339	1701	1755	54	416		Actual	48	369

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", Boston has almost been flipped to the positive side otherwise, for the most part, the other FRBs are doing the same as last week. I have more Boston bills coming my way, so FRB "A" should soon be skyrocketing ahead.

	SoY	SoY%	SoW	SoW%	EoW	EoW%	Goal		GtD	DvG
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	8823	50.74%	8855	50.65%	< 50.0%	49.94%	8885	+30
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	478	2.75%	485	2.77%	> 2.8%	2.85%	485	0
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	477	2.74%	489	2.80%	> 2.4%	2.45%	416	+73
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	405	2.33%	410	2.35%	> 2.3%	2.35%	402	+8
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	384	2.21%	387	2.21%	> 2.2%	2.25%	393	-6
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	359	2.06%	360	2.06%	> 2.1%	2.15%	370	-10
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	312	1.79%	317	1.81%	> 1.7%	1.75%	304	+13

Its interesting to think that this was my expected average week at the start of the year since in comparison to the other weeks this was a disappointment. Having my hit streak move into second place was definitely the highlight of the week.

Cleveland entries "artificially" surpassed Boston ones due to my work to pump up my lower FRBs. I have more Boston bills on the way which will even the rate of additional entries for those two, however, until the "D" bills run out, Cleveland will have a roughly a 53 bill head start. It will be interesting to see if Boston re-passes Cleveland or if the increase of "D" bills (compared to "A" bills) in the area is enough for Cleveland to hold the lead.

My UFC 144 Picks

Coming into this event with a big lead in the fantasy league, I've decided to focus only on picking winners this week and pass on all outcome betting. For the fights where I'm familiar with the fighters, I could see the fights ending in a few different ways, so this is the safe route.

Lightweight Match [UFC144-01]
PPV / Main Card / Main Event / Championship
Frankie Edgar				Ben Henderson
LW #1 / 645 points				LW #3 / 337 points
14 - 1 - 1				15 - 2 - 0
Wins: 4 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 8 Dec				Wins: 2 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 5 Dec
Win Points: 22.58				Win Points: 26.32
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	3.33:1	6.65:1	1.66:1	Payout:	7.13:1	1.78:1	2.85:1
Max Bet:	4.29	1.76	15.15	Max Bet:	1.63	12.82	5.40

My Pick: Ben Henderson

I'm not sure that I'm picking Henderson because I expect him to win as much as I'm picking him because I want him to win. My actually feeling is that this fight is probably pretty even. As such, the reward is greater if Henderson wins. Being wrong here will be pretty costly, but I've got the lead in the league and it's early in the year, so I'm comfortable making this choice.

Light Heavyweight Match [UFC144-02]
PPV / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Quinton Jackson				Ryan Badar
LHW #5 / 468 points				LHW #15 / 206 points
32 - 9 - 0				13 - 2 - 0
Wins: 14 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 11 Dec				Wins: 6 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec
Win Points: 18.20				Win Points: 21.96
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.17:1	4.34:1	2.76:1	Payout:	2.06:1	4.12:1	3.09:1
Max Bet:	8.54	2.99	5.68	Max Bet:	9.43	3.20	4.78

My Pick: Quinton Jackson

Rampage is still an elite light heavyweight. Bader has been impressive except when going aginst elite competition. Jackson has fought often in Japan and should be jazzed up for his return. All of this spells doom for Bader.

Heavyweight Match [UFC144-03]
PPV / Main Card
Cheick Kongo				Mark Hunt
HW #13 / 178 points				HW #35 / 77 points
17 - 6 - 2				7 - 7 - 0
Wins: 10 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec				Wins: 4 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 3 Dec
Win Points: 16.31				Win Points: 19.75
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.62:1	5.38:1	4.04:1	Payout:	1.66:1	7.50:1	2.22:1
Max Bet:	16.12	2.28	3.28	Max Bet:	15.15	1.53	8.19

My Pick: Cheick Kongo

Hunt does not impress me much. Kongo seems to currently be a gatekeeper to the upper tier (after failing to get to the upper tier) and has kept Pat Barry and Matt Mitrione out. Hunt isn't at Barry or Mitrione's level, and Cheick shouldn't have a problem dispatching him.

Welterweight Match [UFC144-04]
PPV / Main Card
Jake Shields				Yoshihiro Akiyama
WW #5 / 376 points				MW #67 / 88 points
26 - 6 - 1				13 - 4 - 0 (2 NC)
Wins: 3 (T)KO, 10 Sub, 13 Dec				Wins: 6 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 15.73				Win Points: 20.81
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	7.50:1	2.47:1	1.90:1	Payout:	2.06:1	2.06:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	1.53	6.80	11.11	Max Bet:	9.43	9.43	1.53

My Pick: Jake Shields

"Sexyama" has been disappointing in his four fight UFC run dropping his last three. This will be his first fight at welterweight. Shields also hasn't been that impressive since moving over to the UFC, but he had an amazing streak in Strikeforce before that. The weight cut will be rough for Akiyama, and Shields win manhandle him for the win.

Middleweight Match [UFC144-05]
PPV / Main Card
Yushin Okami				Tim Boetsch
MW #8 / 306 points				MW #26 / 159 points
26 - 6 - 0				14 - 4 - 0
Wins: 9 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 12 Dec, 1 Other				Wins: 6 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 3 Dec
Win Points: 17.10				Win Points: 19.96
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.64:1	5.94:1	1.98:1	Payout:	2.22:1	2.66:1	4.43:1
Max Bet:	6.09	2.02	10.20	Max Bet:	8.19	6.02	2.91

My Pick: Yushin Okami

Okami has wins over a lot of top middleweights. Boetsch has won his two middleweight fights, and the UFC appears to be looking to see if he's for real. Okami is probably a bit too much for him at this point.

Featherweight Match [UFC144-06]
PPV / Main Card
Hatsu Hioki				Bart Palaszewski
FW #8 / 171 points				FW #9 / 169 points
25 - 4 - 2				36 - 14 - 0
Wins: 6 (T)KO, 10 Sub, 9 Dec				Wins: 17 (T)KO, 11 Sub, 8 Dec
Win Points: 18.99				Win Points: 19.05
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	3.96:1	2.38:1	2.64:1	Payout:	2.01:1	3.11:1	4.28:1
Max Bet:	3.37	7.24	6.09	Max Bet:	9.90	4.73	3.04

My Pick: Hatsu Hioki

Palaszewski was impressive in his UFC 137 while Hioki was not. Hatsu Hioki was brought into the UFC to challenge Jose Aldo, and it's likely the winner of this match gets Aldo next. "Bartimus" seemed like a douchbag in the WEC, and I can't see a world where he'd challenge for a UFC title. Hioki needs to win for that to be avoided.

Lightweight Match [UFC144-07]
PPV / Main Card
Joe Lauzon				Anthony Pettis
LW #11 / 187 points				LW #19 / 162 points
21 - 6 - 0				14 - 2 - 0
Wins: 5 (T)KO, 16 Sub, 0 Dec				Wins: 5 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 3 Dec
Win Points: 17.95				Win Points: 18.60
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	3.99:1	1.25:1	7.50:1	Payout:	2.66:1	2.22:1	4.43:1
Max Bet:	3.34	17.95	1.53	Max Bet:	6.02	8.19	2.91

My Pick: Anthony Pettis

Lauzon looked impressive taking Melvin Guillard out in less than a minute. Pettis is looking to move back up towards the top and attempt to reclaim his lost title shot. Pettis is more patient and less cocky than Guillard and should give Lauzon more than he can handle.

Lightweight Match [UFC144-08]
FX
Takanori Gomi				Eiji Mitsuoka
LW #43 / 108 points				LW #91 / 72 points
33 - 8 - 0 (1 NC)				18 - 7 - 2
Wins: 13 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 14 Dec				Wins: 3 (T)KO, 11 Sub, 4 Dec
Win Points: 8.86				Win Points: 9.78
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.41:1	5.23:1	2.24:1	Payout:	5.70:1	1.55:1	4.28:1
Max Bet:	7.09	2.36	8.06	Max Bet:	2.12	9.78	3.04

My Pick: Takanori Gomi

Gomi is not having a good run in the UFC with a poor 1-3 record although against good competition. Mitsuoka has fought a bunch of opponents whose names I don't recognize. I'm going to go with Gomi due to more impressive experience.

Bantamweight Match [UFC144-09]
FX
Vaughan Lee				Norifumi Yamamoto
BW #116 / 37 points				BW #117 / 37 points
11 - 7 - 1				18 - 5 - 0 (1 NC)
Wins: 4 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 1 Dec				Wins: 13 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 3 Dec
Win Points: 7.02				Win Points: 7.02
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.61:1	1.74:1	7.50:1	Payout:	1.32:1	7.50:1	5.70:1
Max Bet:	6.21	7.02	1.53	Max Bet:	7.02	1.53	2.12

My Pick: Norifumi Yamamoto

"Kid" Yamamoto used to be the biggest deal when it came to featherweights but has come up short in most of his recent fights. Vaughan Lee? I'm not seeing what the big deal about this guy is. This fight feels like the UFC is giving Yamamoto the opportunity to win one in his home country.

Middleweight Match [UFC144-10]
FX
Riki Fukuda				Steve Cantwell
MW #60 / 95 points				MW #287 / 30 points
17 - 5 - 0				7 - 5 - 0
Wins: 7 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 9 Dec				Wins: 4 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 0 Dec
Win Points: 6.84				Win Points: 8.74
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.31:1	7.50:1	1.79:1	Payout:	1.66:1	2.22:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	6.84	1.53	6.84	Max Bet:	8.74	8.19	1.53

My Pick: Riki Fukuda

I will forever be thankful that Cantwell knocked off the arrogant Brian Stann in their WEC light heavyweight championship fight. But honestly, this guy has lost four in a row in the UFC. Why is he still around? Fukuda doesn't have an impressive history to me, but it's hard to not see him getting past Cantwell.

Bantamweight Match [UFC144-11]
FX
Takeya Mizugaki				Chris Cariaso
BW #14 / 112 points				BW #57 / 56 points
15 - 6 - 2				12 - 3 - 0
Wins: 5 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 9 Dec				Wins: 2 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 8 Dec
Win Points: 10.84				Win Points: 12.75
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.85:1	7.50:1	1.58:1	Payout:	5.70:1	5.70:1	1.43:1
Max Bet:	5.40	1.53	10.84	Max Bet:	2.12	2.12	12.75

My Pick: Takeya Mizugaki

Mizugaki has a fantastic gas tank and is a ton of fun to watch. Cariaso lacks any impressive wins in his past. Mizugaki's experience against much tougher opponents should help lead him to victory here.

Featherweight Match [UFC144-12]
N/A
Tiequan Zhang				Issei Tamura
FW #126 / 43 points				FW #142 / 41 points
15 - 2 - 0				6 - 2 - 0
Wins: 3 (T)KO, 12 Sub, 0 Dec				Wins: 1 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 5 Dec
Win Points: 3.57				Win Points: 3.61
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	4.75:1	1.19:1	7.50:1	Payout:	5.70:1	7.50:1	1.14:1
Max Bet:	2.66	3.57	1.53	Max Bet:	2.12	1.53	3.61

My Pick: Tiequan Zhang

Zhang was suppose to be fighting Leonard Garcia, but Tamura was asked to step in when Garcia pulled out due to injury. Zhang definitely seems like the bigger deal of these two, and perhaps will get his matchup with Garcia later after dispatching with Tamura.

The Week That Was: 02/13/2012 - 02/19/2012

Weeks are passing by too quickly now. Is it sad that I find it easier to write about what happened Where's George-wise during the week than my actual week? Sometimes it feels like my life boils down to sleeping, working, and relaxing (a.k.a. not doing anything). I think I need to live a bit more.

Weight Management
Increased activity last weekend and into the week has played havoc with my weight loss goals. I had the same minimum as last year, a much higher max, and an almost equal average, so I'll call this week "even" to the last:

	Min	Max	Avg
02/06/2012 - 02/12/2012	170.6	172.6	171.6
02/13/2012 - 02/19/2012	170.6	173.8	171.7

Keeping in mind that I went on a bike ride last Sunday and the additional run during the week, I think this week was actually quite successful. Hard to truly compare this week to last with the exercise increase. Looking forward to seeing how next week compares to this one although the exercise profile will again be different.

Running
I followed through and added the "quick" run this week although I went on Wednesday rather than Tuesday (was still pretty sore on Tuesday). I ran for 20 minutes and got in 2.25 miles which was on the high side of my expected range. For my Saturday run, I picked a different route and started slow to see if that'd help later in the run. My first 10K of the run wasn't impressive: 68:46 (three seconds slower than last week and the slowest for the year). I finished the 80 minute run averaging 11:01 min/mile which was faster than last week's but not that fast compared to most runs this year. However, knowing that I've exercised more than usual this week, I think that time is respectable.

I received a notification from Elemential Running (the group that took over and ran the Super Bowl 10K) that they'd be coorinating and holding the entire schedule of runs that the Mathis's would have held this year. Based on that, my next run will be the Folsom Shamrock 10K on St. Patrick's Day (which was my original plan at the beginning of the year). I should offically sign up this week.

UFC Fantasy League
Another good week for me in the league as I came out on top picks-wise for UFC on Fuel TV 1. This weekend's event (UFC 144) will be worth a lot of points. Part of me hopes that after it the league gets a lot closer, but the competitive part hopes that I compeltely blow everyone out of the water.

Miscellaneous
Completed my taxes today with the help of my father-in-law. Nice to have them done and out of the way.

3000th Hit!

Not really surprising that it happened today since I entered the day just two hits away, but I got my 3000^th hit: an initial hit on a bill that I spent in San Francisco that was re-entered in Orem, UT. The bill traveled 518 miles in roughly 80 days. You can check out the hit here: hit report.

I got my 2000^th hit on May 17, 2011 04:01 PM which is 278 days ago. If it takes 278 days to get my next 1000 hits, I'll achieve hit 4000 on November 23^rd. My 1000^th hit came on May 3, 2010, so the second thousand took 379 days. Surprising that the third thousand happened so much faster than the second.

WG Week in Review Correction: 2009 vs 2003A

As I mentioned in my previous post, the calculation for determining the Goal WΔ was incorrect for comparing 2009 entries to 2003A, and as a result, the amount any particular week was ahead or behind was off (stat showed me more behind than reality). I've gone back and recalculated for each week of the year, and have displayed the wrong and the corrected numbers here:

01/01/2012 - 01/07/2012
							Wrong						Corrected
	SoY	SoW	EoW	WΔ	YΔ			WΔ	YΔ	WvG	DvG			WΔ	YΔ	WvG	DvG
2003A	3603	3603	3611	8	8		Goal	46	46	-18	-18		Goal	46	46	-18	-18
2009	1339	1339	1375	36	036		Actual	28	028				Actual	28	028

01/08/2012 - 01/14/2012
							Wrong						Corrected
	SoY	SoW	EoW	WΔ	YΔ			WΔ	YΔ	WvG	DvG			WΔ	YΔ	WvG	DvG
2003A	3603	3611	3616	5	13		Goal	37	82	-5	-22		Goal	36	82	-4	-22
2009	1339	1375	1412	37	073		Actual	32	060				Actual	32	060

01/15/2012 - 01/21/2012
							Wrong						Corrected
	SoY	SoW	EoW	WΔ	YΔ			WΔ	YΔ	WvG	DvG			WΔ	YΔ	WvG	DvG
2003A	3603	3616	3623	7	20		Goal	51	131	-8	-28		Goal	49	131	-6	-28
2009	1339	1412	1462	50	123		Actual	43	103				Actual	43	103

01/22/2012 - 01/28/2012
							Wrong						Corrected
	SoY	SoW	EoW	WΔ	YΔ			WΔ	YΔ	WvG	DvG			WΔ	YΔ	WvG	DvG
2003A	3603	3623	3624	1	21		Goal	41	169	+14	-11		Goal	39	169	+16	-11
2009	1339	1462	1518	56	179		Actual	55	158				Actual	55	158

01/29/2012 - 02/04/2012
							Wrong						Corrected
	SoY	SoW	EoW	WΔ	YΔ			WΔ	YΔ	WvG	DvG			WΔ	YΔ	WvG	DvG
2003A	3603	3624	3633	9	30		Goal	51	217	-5	-13		Goal	48	217	-2	-13
2009	1339	1518	1573	55	234		Actual	46	204				Actual	46	204

02/05/2012 - 02/11/2012
							Wrong						Corrected
	SoY	SoW	EoW	WΔ	YΔ			WΔ	YΔ	WvG	DvG			WΔ	YΔ	WvG	DvG
2003A	3603	3633	3643	10	40		Goal	53	265	+3	-5		Goal	48	265	+8	-5
2009	1339	1573	1639	66	300		Actual	56	260				Actual	56	260

02/12/2012 - 02/18/2012
							Wrong						Corrected
	SoY	SoW	EoW	WΔ	YΔ			WΔ	YΔ	WvG	DvG			WΔ	YΔ	WvG	DvG
2003A	3603	3643	3644	1	41		Goal	43	303	+18	+18		Goal	38	303	+23	+18
2009	1339	1639	1701	62	362		Actual	61	321				Actual	61	321

The incorrect formula was calculating the delta needed assuming that I needed to make up the year's difference in the bills I still needed to enter starting this week to meet my year's entry goal. So for this week, it was calculating that I needed to cover the year's 2,264 bill deficient (2009 vs 2003A) in the 4,415 bills I had left to enter for this year. As such, as it week went by, the calculation would be more and more off.

Now that it's fixed, you can add the weekly difference to last week's overall difference and obtain this week's overall difference (+/- 1 since fractional bills are rounded). The overall numbers were calculated separately (and correctly), so they were right, so I always knew where I was at with the goal. I only had the wrong information regarding how the week's entries had done.

My Where's George Week in Review: 02/12/12 - 02/18/12

In the past week, I received 30 hits in 5 States [CA²⁴, NV, OH, OR², VA] as well as an international hit in Amersham, United Kingdom. I now have hits in 25 States in 2012 with 1 new this week: OH.

Of those 30 hits, 1 was the 3^rd hit on the bill, 2 were the 2^nd hit on the bill, and the rest (27) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 3 Years 13 Days 15 Hours 51 Minutes after I originally entered it which makes it third on my all-time longest active list a mere 11 minutes ahead of fourth. With only having five bills that have been active over three years, I was surprised to see that two of them were so close in time.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
12	13	14	15	16	17	18
3	6	3	2	5	4	7

I've changed how I generate the calendar above from being a resized, "fuzzy" image from my Where's George stats program to being straight HTML. I think this looks better (although on IE, the shadow for the number of hits is missing) and gives me a better ability to change the colors if desired (this weeks colors of red and blue were picked for Presidents Day).

My hit streak continues on and has reached 53 days. This is still fourth overall, but third (54 days) and second (58 days) will be surpassed if the streak continues through the week. Holiday weekends can be rough on streaks, but I think Presidents day weekend is usually not as bad as others.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, I had a bit of a light week in regards to entering bills and am now one bill behind the needed pace for the year. Bills with Hits and Total Hits are still way ahead. The 30 hits I got this week were the most in any week this year, and the vast majority were initial hits which gave Bills with Hits a big boost.

	SoY	SoW	EoW	WΔ	YΔ	P	P/W	PtD	WvP	DvP
Bills Entered	16720	17305	17388	83	668	21720	95.6	17389	-13	-1
Bills with Hits	2430	2562	2589	27	159	3445	19.4	2566	+8	+23
Total Hits	2799	2968	2998	30	199	4030	23.5	2964	+6	+34

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 86.52% [+0.23%], so I'm still well on track for hitting this goal:

	SoY	SoW	EoW	WΔ	YΔ	G	GfW	GtD	WvG	DvG
$1s Entered	14427	14965	15044	79	617	18959	75.2	15032	+4	+12

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, I'm doing better than previously thought. The numbers for this week originally did not match what I was expecting, and I rechecked my formulas, and found that there was an error in calculating what the goal WΔ was. I've fixed the error, and I'll post an entry for the true progression of this goal through the year later today.

In the past week, Series 2009 broke through the barrier of being 2000 behind. Unless the past few straps of $1s I've gotten from the bank have been unusual, I think this goal will be achieved faster than originally expected. The fact that this week and three weeks ago I only entered 1 2003A for an entire week leads me to believe that the series is starting to hit the shredder more and more.

	SoY	SoW	EoW	WΔ	YΔ			WΔ	YΔ	WvG	DvG
2003A	3603	3643	3644	1	41		Goal	38	303	+23	+18
2009	1339	1639	1701	62	362		Actual	61	321

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", things are looking good. San Francisco is co-operating, Boston is starting to turn around (now that I'm supplementing), and St. Louis is somehow ahead without help (although I've acquired some "H" bills, so St. Louis will be even more ahead soon). Still looking to acquire "C" and "I" bills, but those FRBs aren't falling too far behind yet. Cleveland entries are about to surpass Boston. If I can get a second group of Boston, that should eventually get reversed, although I think there are currently more Cleveland bills in the area, so Cleveland may have naturally passed Boston eventually anyways.

	SoY	SoY%	SoW	SoW%	EoW	EoW%	Goal		GtD	DvG
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	8799	50.85%	8823	50.74%	< 50.0%	49.94%	8841	+18
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	473	2.73%	478	2.75%	> 2.8%	2.85%	482	-4
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	465	2.69%	477	2.74%	> 2.4%	2.45%	413	+64
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	404	2.33%	405	2.33%	> 2.3%	2.35%	399	+6
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	384	2.22%	384	2.21%	> 2.2%	2.25%	391	-7
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	359	2.07%	359	2.06%	> 2.1%	2.15%	367	-8
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	308	1.78%	312	1.79%	> 1.7%	1.75%	302	+10

In other Where's George news for the week, I entered my 15,000^th $1. By design, I've entered way more ones than any other denomination, but it's surprising to me that none of the others are even up to 1000. I entered my 37^th wild (a bill previously entered by a different user). It was a "sherlock" (a sherlock being an entered bill with a stamp that doesn't explicitly have the web address), but the stamp was just of the dollar symbol ("$"), so maybe it was more so a "stealth" (a stealth having no stamps) since the stamp wasn't much of a clue. I don't see the point in tracking stealths and sherlocks (the hit rate has to be low), but it was fun to find one.

I'm now just 2 hits away from my 3000^th hit. Unless today is a bummer for hits, I should get it today. I'm sure I'll post about the excitement when it happens.

The end of the week certainly made up for the beginning this week. The most interesting hits (the Ohio and the UK hit) both came in on Saturday otherwise this would have been a week of a bunch of localish initial hits. Here's hoping that the momentum at the end of the week carries into next.

New WG Week in Review Stat: States Hit in 2012

As I continue my quest for 50 State Bingo, I became curious as to how many States in which I've received hits in 2012. My curious grew enough that I've decided to add that data to my Where's George Weekly Review post. In order to have the full picture of that data, I'm posting here those numbers for the first six weeks of the year:

Week		Hits	New States	TS
2012-01-01	2012-01-07	CA22, FL, HI, NJ, PA, VA, WA2	CA, FL, HI, NJ, PA, VA, WA	7
2012-01-08	2012-01-14	CA21, FL, HI2, MI, OR, TX2	MI, OR, TX	10
2012-01-15	2012-01-21	AZ2, CA23, HI, NJ, NV2	AZ, NV	12
2012-01-22	2012-01-28	AR, CA21, IL2, NC, NM2, NY, OR	AR, IL, NC, NM, NY	17
2012-01-29	2012-02-05	AZ2, CA18, CO, FL, HI2, LA	CO, LA	19
2012-02-06	2012-02-12	CA18, CO, GA, ID, MA, NV, TN, UT3	GA, ID, MA, TN, UT	24

I was impressed to see that I already had hits in 24 States. I probably would have guessed between 15-20. Also impressed that each week has brought about at least two new States.

Where's George Hit Coolness - Part II

Took me longer to return to this series than I expected. I think from here, this series will move along faster. I think my confidence in actually creating a useful metric is waning a bit. I think, perhaps, that I'm considering too many factors for the metric. Although, in the end, if I don't like the results, I can play with the factors until I do.

With that in mind, I think I need to make the bill hit number and State hits factor have a larger effect. To accomplish this, I need to lower the minimum for each. I'll be lowering the bill hit number minimum to 0.45 and the State hit minimum to 0.70. Using that change, here's how the coolness stacks up for my hits in the first three weeks of the year:

Bill Hit #	Hit Location	Coolness	#
3rd	OR	46.69	x1
2nd	Italy	26.83	x1
3rd	CA	24.98	x1
2nd	NV	21.49	x1
1st	MI	16.82	x1
1st	NJ	16.25	x2
1st	VA	15.90	x1
1st	PA	15.82	x1
1st	FL	15.01	x2
1st	AZ	14.96	x2
1st	WA	14.63	x2
1st	TX	14.42	x2
1st	HI	13.60	x4
1st	NV	13.42	x1
2nd	CA	6.24	x10
1st	CA	0.00	x55

The only hits to switch spots in coolness rank are the Florida and Arizona hits, and they switched because I now have more hits in Arizona than Florida.

After "rebalancing" the bill hit number and State hit factors, its time to add a third factor. The most logical place to go from here is county hit (after county, my plan is to add city and then zip code). The big question to answer here is which should be the bigger factor: State hit or county hit? The way I look at this is "would a hit in a new county in California be close in coolness to a hit in a State with just a few hits?" My gut reaction is "no", and as such, the State factor will be the larger one. As a starting point, I'll leave the minimum for State at 0.70 and make county's minimum 0.95. This makes the overall county/State combo minimum 0.665. I think that's ok for now, but this might need to be shifted when city and zip are added.

After running the program using the new factors, I think the most interesting data points are those for the first hit on bills in States other than CA. This data can be seen in the below table. The parathesis numbers indicate hits in county and hits in State.

Bill Hit #	Hit Location	Coolness	#
1st	Kalkaska MI (1:8)	18.69	x1
1st	Mercer NJ (1:13)	18.13	x1
1st	Essex NJ (3:13)	17.71	x1
1st	Prince William VA (2:17)	17.46	x1
1st	York PA (2:18)	17.38	x1
1st	Volusia FL (1:31)	16.92	x1
1st	Miami-Dade FL (6:31)	16.36	x1
1st	Cameron TX (1:44)	16.34	x1
1st	Pima AZ (7:32)	16.27	x2
1st	Pierce WA (2:39)	16.22	x1
1st	Travis TX (3:44)	15.93	x1
1st	King WA (21:39)	15.66	x1
1st	Kauai HI (16:67)	14.75	x1
1st	Clark NV (23:73)	14.47	x1
1st	Honolulu HI (45:67)	14.41	x3

Looking closely at the "out of order" coolness factors based on State hits, the first hit in Cameron county Texas is cooler than the 7th hit in Pima Arizona and the 2nd in Pierce Washington. Also the third hit in Travis Texas is cooler than the 21st in King Washington. Finally the 23rd hit in Clark Nevada is cooler than the 46th in Honolulu Hawaii.

I can buy into each of those. However, I'm not sure that I'd agree that the 7th hit in Pima Arizona would be cooler than the 2nd in Pierce Washinston. To fix this, I adjusted the exponential part of the county hit coolness equations. Meaning that the equation started as:

CF = 1.00 - 0.05 * (hit - hit_min)^1/3 / (hit_max - hit_min)^1/3

And then was adjusted to:

CF = 1.00 - 0.05 * (hit - hit_min)^1/5 / (hit_max - hit_min)^1/5

Recalculating for the hits above brought about this new coolness order:

Bill Hit #	Hit Location	Coolness	#
1st	Kalkaska MI (1:8)	18.69	x1
1st	Mercer NJ (1:13)	18.13	x1
1st	Essex NJ (3:13)	17.20	x1
1st	Prince William VA (2:17)	16.98	x1
1st	Volusia FL (1:31)	16.92	x1
1st	York PA (2:18)	16.91	x1
1st	Cameron TX (1:44)	16.34	x1
1st	Miami-Dade FL (6:31)	15.83	x1
1st	Pierce WA (2:39)	15.76	x1
1st	Pima AZ (7:32)	15.74	x2
1st	Travis TX (3:44)	15.43	x1
1st	King WA (21:39)	15.11	x1
1st	Kauai HI (16:67)	14.21	x1
1st	Clark NV (23:73)	13.93	x1
1st	Honolulu HI (45:67)	13.89	x3

Ok, so the Pierce Washington hit is now slightly cooler than the Pima Arizona hit. Good. Additionally, the Volusia Florida hit passed the York Pennsyvania hit slightly (I'm ok with this) and the Cameron Texas hit passed the Miami-Dade Florida hit (I'm also ok with this). So far so good.

To get some additional data points, I ran the program for all hits over the past three weeks. There were some more "interesting" hits in this time span, so I'll provide the table for all of the data except for the California first and second hits:

Bill Hit #	Hit Location	Coolness	#
3rd	Italy	56.40	x1
4th	Contra Costa CA (75:2222)	54.03	x1
3rd	Multnomah OR (11:53)	45.97	x1
2nd	Shelby TN (1:3)	28.12	x1
2nd	Saint Martin LA (1:4)	27.81	x1
2nd	Richmond GA (1:12)	26.50	x1
2nd	Chaffee CO (1:19)	25.84	x1
2nd	Weber UT (2:11)	25.69	x1
2nd	Catawba NC (2:15)	25.27	x1
2nd	Mason IL (1:32)	24.97	x1
3rd	Fresno CA (49:2222)	24.66	x1
2nd	Suffolk MA (5:30)	23.89	x1
2nd	Pima AZ (7:32)	23.67	x1
1st	Grant NM (1:7)	18.83	x1
1st	Dona Ana NM (1:7)	18.83	x1
1st	Washington AR (1:9)	18.56	x1
1st	Bonner ID (1:9)	18.56	x1
1st	Salt Lake UT (5:11)	17.26	x2
1st	Columbia FL (1:31)	16.92	x1
1st	Boulder CO (2:19)	16.84	x1
1st	Fulton NY (1:40)	16.51	x1
1st	Will IL (2:32)	16.08	x1
1st	Maricopa AZ (23:32)	15.40	x1
1st	Kauai HI (16:67)	14.21	x1
1st	Clark NV (23:73)	13.93	x1
1st	Honolulu HI (45:67)	13.89	x1

There are a few interesting hits of note in this data. The 3rd hit in Italy is cooler than the 4th hit in California but the CA hit is still cooler than the 3rd hit in Oregon. This is in line with my thinking that a 3rd hit is cooler than a 4th only if the 3rd hit State has 1/1000 of the hits of the 4th hit State. The 2nd hit in Weber UT being less cool than the 2nd hit in Chaffee CO is questionable but acceptable. The 2nd hit in Mason IL being cooler than the 3rd hit in Fresno CA breaks the 1/100 ratio for 2nd to 3rd hits, but with the Mason IL being the only hit in the county, that seems right. The Salt Lake UT hit being cooler than the Columbia FL hit is also questionable, but I think the order is correct.

Three factors in, I think I'm off to a good start. I wouldn't be surprised if I have to revisit some of the magnitudes along the way. Things will start to get interesting once I get past the rest of the "hit location" factors.

My UFC on FuelTV 1 Picks

Welterweight Match [FUEL1-01]
Fuel / Main Card / Main Event
Jake Ellenberger				Diego Sanchez
WW #3 / 443 points				WW #10 / 266 points
26 - 5 - 0				23 - 4 - 0
Wins: 17 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 4 Dec				Wins: 6 (T)KO, 9 Sub, 8 Dec
Win Points: 14.55				Win Points: 16.46
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.45:1	4.94:1	6.18:1	Payout:	3.64:1	2.43:1	2.73:1
Max Bet:	14.55	2.53	1.93	Max Bet:	3.78	6.99	5.78

My Pick: Jake Ellenberger via Decision [1.75 Point Wager]

This is really a good fight that feels like it's being wasted as the headliner for a FuelTV card. Ellenberger last lost in 2009 in a split decision loss to the newly crown interim welterweight champion, Carlos Condit. Sanchez's return to welterweight started off slow with a split decision loss to John Hathaway, but then he picked up nice wins against Paulo Thiago and Martin Kampmann. Sanchez has only been stopped once (and that was via doctor stoppage). I think Ellenberger will be too much for Sanchez. There's a juicy payoff if Jake wins by decision, and it's big enough for me to make that wager.

Heavyweight Match [FUEL1-02]
Fuel / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Dave Herman				Stefan Struve
HW #24 / 102 points				HW #30 / 83 points
21 - 2 - 0				22 - 5 - 0
Wins: 15 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 1 Dec				Wins: 5 (T)KO, 15 Sub, 1 Dec, 1 Other
Win Points: 12.18				Win Points: 12.82
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.33:1	3.99:1	7.50:1	Payout:	3.99:1	1.33:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	12.18	3.34	1.53	Max Bet:	3.34	12.82	1.53

My Pick: Stefan Struve

I'm not all that familiar with Herman (I did see his last fight: a victory against the less-than-impressive John Olav Einemo). He doesn't come off to me as a guy super dedicated to the sport. Struve has had some success in the UFC but tends to fail in fights where he could "move up the ladder" (Browne, Nelson, Dos Santos). Although he's the "underdog" here, I don't see this as a "move up" fight for him. I think Herman will encounter difficulties with Stefan's size advantage and Struve will pick up his second win in a row.

Middleweight Match [FUEL1-03]
Fuel / Main Card
Aaron Simpson				Ronny Markes
MW #36 / 121 points				LHW #42 / 91 points
11 - 2 - 0				12 - 1 - 0
Wins: 6 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 4 Dec				Wins: 5 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 3 Dec
Win Points: 10.63				Win Points: 11.26
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.74:1	7.50:1	2.61:1	Payout:	2.28:1	2.85:1	3.80:1
Max Bet:	10.63	1.53	6.21	Max Bet:	7.81	5.40	3.57

My Pick: Aaron Simpson via Decision [2.00 Point Wager]

My current gut opinion of Simpson is that he is a bit of scrub, but he does have a lot of wins against middle-of-the-pack UFC fighters while only losing to Leban and Munoz. This will be Markes second UFC fight (his first was at light heavy, but I think middleweight is his "normal" weight). He does own a recent win against the once highly regarded Paulo Filho. Other than that, I'm not blown away by his fight history. I don't see anything that makes me believe he can derail the "A-Train". Since Simpson's last three wins all came by decision, I'll make a wager that this'll be the fourth.

Heavyweight Match [FUEL1-04]
Fuel / Main Card
Stipe Miocic				Philip De Fries
HW #26 / 95 points				HW #54 / 59 points
7 - 0 - 0				8 - 0 - 0
Wins: 5 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 1 Dec				Wins: 0 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 10.45				Win Points: 11.73
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.33:1	6.65:1	6.65:1	Payout:	7.50:1	1.09:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	10.45	1.76	1.76	Max Bet:	1.53	11.73	1.53

My Pick: Stipe Miocic

Someone's "oh" has got to go! This is the sophomore event for both fighters with both earning decision victories (each's only) in their UFC debuts. Miocic was given the tough task of Joey Beltran while De Fries took on Rob Broughton. Miocic is a knockout specialist (his submission win is due to "leg kick") while De Fries is a submission artist. Beltran hadn't been knocked out prior, so it's understandable that Miocic didn't knock him out either. Broughton had tapped out twice, but De Fries couldn't get him. Based on such, I'm picking Miocic via TKO (no wager due to lack of value).

Bantamweight Match [FUEL1-05]
Fuel / Main Card
Walel Watson				T.J. Dillashaw
BW #59 / 54 points				NR / 14 points
9 - 3 - 0				4 - 1 - 0
Wins: 2 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 0 Dec				Wins: 1 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 6.81				Win Points: 8.98
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	4.28:1	1.22:1	7.50:1	Payout:	3.80:1	1.90:1	3.80:1
Max Bet:	3.04	6.81	1.53	Max Bet:	3.57	8.98	3.57

My Pick: T.J. Dillashaw

Dillashaw is coming off of the first loss of his young career in the Ultimate Fighter finale in the batamweight "championship" (what do they call it?) match. Watson is a finisher with none of his nine wins going to decision. I don't have a strong feeling either way on this one so I'm going with T.J. because he's the underdog (therefore worth more points) and trains locally with Team Alpha Male. T.J.'s road to victory will be through his wrestling: controlling Watson and preventing him from getting offensive positions for submission attempts. While I lean towards this going to decision, I don't feel comfortable taking the risk on the wager.

Bantamweight Match [FUEL1-06]
N/A
Ivan Menjivar				John Albert
BW #48 / 62 points				BW #105 / 39 points
23 - 8 - 0				7 - 1 - 0
Wins: 9 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 6 Dec				Wins: 4 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 0 Dec
Win Points: 5.54				Win Points: 6.20
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.43:1	2.73:1	3.64:1	Payout:	1.66:1	2.22:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	5.54	5.54	3.78	Max Bet:	6.20	6.20	1.53

My Pick: Ivan Menjivar

We're now into the "Who?" portion of the fight card. Picking the prelims of a card shown on the station that normally carries the prelims is not going to be an easy task. Ivan has lost to a number of names I recognize (also has beat one but not a fighter I respect). Albert is an "also ran" from TUF 14, and as such, I'd prefer he go away. So I'll take Ivan "Pride of El Salvador" Menjivar to get the victory by method unknown.

Featherweight Match [FUEL1-07]
N/A
Johnathan Brookins				Vagner Rocha
FW #54 / 68 points				LW #194 / 45 points
12 - 4 - 0				7 - 2 - 0
Wins: 2 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 2 Dec				Wins: 1 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 4.56				Win Points: 5.00
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	5.70:1	1.43:1	5.70:1	Payout:	6.65:1	1.33:1	6.65:1
Max Bet:	2.12	4.56	2.12	Max Bet:	1.76	5.00	1.76

My Pick: Vagner Rocha

Brookins is the surprise winner of the 12th season of TUF. He's lost his only UFC fight since. I was surprised to see that he had a loss to Jose Aldo in the WEC. Rocha has a short UFC history: a loss to Cerone and a win against TUF's Code McKenzie. This will be his first fight at featherweight. Neither impressives me much, but Rocha impressively went to a decision against Cerone, so I'll take him.

Light Heavyweight Match [FUEL1-08]
N/A
Buddy Roberts				Sean Loeffler
LHW #72 / 57 points				LHW #136 / 33 points
11 - 2 - 0				25 - 5 - 0
Wins: 4 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 2 Dec				Wins: 11 (T)KO, 13 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 4.41				Win Points: 5.03
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.61:1	2.09:1	5.23:1	Payout:	2.16:1	1.83:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	4.41	4.41	2.36	Max Bet:	5.03	5.03	1.53

My Pick: Sean Loeffler

Two octagon newcomers that historically finish their opponents both with slightly more submission victories than TKOs. Roberts lacks a nickname while Loeffler is "The Destroyer". Loeffler looks more badass too. I think there'll be a finish but no clue which.

Lightweight Match [FUEL1-09]
N/A
Anton Kuivanen				Justin Salas
LW #40 / 113 points				LW #79 / 79 points
16 - 4 - 0				9 - 3 - 0
Wins: 4 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 4 Dec				Wins: 3 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 3 Dec
Win Points: 6.37				Win Points: 6.96
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	3.80:1	1.90:1	3.80:1	Payout:	2.85:1	2.85:1	2.85:1
Max Bet:	3.57	6.37	3.57	Max Bet:	5.40	5.40	5.40

My Pick: Anton Kuivanen

Another fight between two UFC newcomers. Kuivanen has won nine in a row spanning back to 2008. Salas has five in a row spanning back to 2009 including a win over UFC flameout Robert Emerson. My gut says Anton. I have to pick someone, so we'll go with the gut.

Lightweight Match [FUEL1-10]
N/A
Tim Means				Barnardo Magalhaes
LW #72 / 82 points				LW #154 / 51 points
16 - 3 - 0				11 - 1 - 0
Wins: 12 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 1 Dec				Wins: 0 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 9 Dec
Win Points: 4.27				Win Points: 4.79
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.27:1	5.07:1	7.50:1	Payout:	7.50:1	5.23:1	1.16:1
Max Bet:	4.27	2.45	1.53	Max Bet:	1.53	2.36	4.79

My Pick: Tim Means

This is the third verse of the UFC virgins song. Means is a late replacement but has the better resume of the two. Magalhaes has a lot of wins by decision which I find concerning in a pre-UFC career. Throw in the coolness of Means nickname, "The Dirty Bird", and I'll pick Means to win.