My UFC 149 Picks

It's been a little while (almost a couple months actually) since I last posted my picks and analysis. Not sure if today's post is a sign that I'll get back to posting them regularly but hopefully so.

Bantamweight Match [UFC149-01]
PPV / Main Card / Main Event / Interim Championship
Urijah Faber				Renan Barao
BW #3 / 234 points				BW #5 / 182 points
26 - 5 - 0				28 - 1 - 0 (1 NC)
Wins: 7 (T)KO, 14 Sub, 4 Dec, 1 Other				Wins: 6 (T)KO, 13 Sub, 9 Dec
Win Points: 21.97				Win Points: 23.38
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	3.39:1	1.70:1	5.94:1	Payout:	4.43:1	2.05:1	2.96:1
Max Bet:	4.18	14.28	2.02	Max Bet:	2.91	9.52	5.10

My Pick: Urijah Faber

The first of many difficult picks. In the end, I'm going with Faber. Looking at the recent fights for both, Faber has the more impressive in his victories. Although Barao hasn't lost in quite some time, Faber's losses have come by decision in title fights. With Barao's inability to finish lesser opponents in three rounds, I'm concerned he won't be able to finish or outpoint Urijah.

Middleweight Match [UFC149-02]
PPV / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Hector Lombard				Tim Boetsch
MW #6 / 327 points				MW #9 / 276 points
31 - 2 - 1 (1 NC)				15 - 4 - 0
Wins: 17 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 7 Dec				Wins: 7 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 3 Dec
Win Points: 19.27				Win Points: 20.10
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.73:1	4.21:1	4.21:1	Payout:	2.04:1	2.85:1	4.75:1
Max Bet:	13.69	3.11	3.11	Max Bet:	9.61	5.40	2.66

My Pick: Hector Lombard

It is another tough pick for me. Lombard has had quite the impressive career although the caliber of his opposition hasn't been that great as of late. Boetsch has been quite impressive since moving down to middleweight and wasn't bad as a light heavyweight. He needed a third round knockout to defeat Yushin Okami, and he got it. I don't think he's going to be able to rally from behind this time, and Lombard will impress in his UFC debut.

Heavyweight Match [UFC149-03]
PPV / Main Card
Cheick Kongo				Shawn Jordan
HW #18 / 121 points				HW #73 / 46 points
17 - 7 - 2				13 - 3 - 0
Wins: 10 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec				Wins: 9 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 14.81				Win Points: 18.36
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.62:1	5.38:1	4.04:1	Payout:	1.37:1	4.12:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	14.81	2.28	3.28	Max Bet:	18.36	3.20	1.53

My Pick: Shawn Jordan

I think this fight really comes down to Kongo's performance. His last seven fights (where he has gone 3-3-1) have be shaky at best. I've flip-flopped on my pick a few times now, but in the end, I think Jordan will use Kongo as a stepping stone on his way up.

Welterweight Match [UFC149-04]
PPV / Main Card
Brian Ebersole				James Head
WW #17 / 238 points				WW #61 / 95 points
50 - 14 - 1 (1 NC)				8 - 2 - 0
Wins: 14 (T)KO, 20 Sub, 16 Dec				Wins: 4 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 15.20				Win Points: 18.68
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	3.39:1	2.38:1	2.97:1	Payout:	1.90:1	2.53:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	4.18	7.24	5.07	Max Bet:	11.11	6.53	1.53

My Pick: Brian Ebersole

It's rare for a fighter to have had 50 fights let alone 50 wins. Ebersole has won all four of his UFC fights and 11 in a row overall. Head is 1-1 in the UFC with his loss coming to Nick Ring (more on him later). Ebersole keeps his win streak rolling.

Welterweight Match [UFC149-05]
PPV / Main Card
Chris Clements				Matt Riddle
WW #73 / 87 points				WW #132 / 61 points
11 - 4 - 0				6 - 3 - 0
Wins: 10 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 1 Dec				Wins: 1 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 4 Dec, 1 Other
Win Points: 12.19				Win Points: 13.30
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.05:1	7.50:1	7.50:1	Payout:	4.75:1	7.50:1	1.19:1
Max Bet:	12.19	1.53	1.53	Max Bet:	2.66	1.53	13.30

My Pick: Chris Clements

I don't know what it is, but I strongly dislike Matt Riddle. In his last fight, he barely beat a guy from two classes below him. He's talentless and needs to be sent packing from the UFC. Chris Clements is the man for that job.

Middleweight Match [UFC149-06]
FX
Nick Ring				Court McGee
MW #40 / 108 points				MW #55 / 90 points
12 - 1 - 0				14 - 2 - 0
Wins: 2 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 4 Dec				Wins: 3 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 4 Dec
Win Points: 10.07				Win Points: 10.54
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	5.70:1	1.90:1	2.85:1	Payout:	4.43:1	1.90:1	3.33:1
Max Bet:	2.12	10.07	5.40	Max Bet:	2.91	10.54	4.29

My Pick: Court McGee

I was going to pick Ring to win this one since Court is a TUF alum, but then I noticed that Nick's nickname is "The Promise" (as in the promise ring). I realize that the nickname won't affect the fight, but I can't pick someone with one so lame.

Bantamweight Match [UFC149-07]
FX
Roland Delorme				Francisco Rivera
BW #43 / 65 points				BW #67 / 52 points
8 - 1 - 0				8 - 2 - 0
Wins: 2 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 0 Dec				Wins: 5 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 3 Dec
Win Points: 9.55				Win Points: 10.09
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	3.80:1	1.27:1	7.50:1	Payout:	1.52:1	7.50:1	2.53:1
Max Bet:	3.57	9.55	1.53	Max Bet:	10.09	1.53	6.53

My Pick: Roland Delorme

Delorme has the higher ranking, the slightly better record, and an additional fight/win in the UFC. Since I don't much about either, that's enough to get my pick.

Light Heavyweight Match [UFC149-08]
FX
Ryan Jimmo				Anthony Perosh
LHW #17 / 165 points				LHW #33 / 104 points
16 - 1 - 0				13 - 6 - 0
Wins: 6 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 8 Dec				Wins: 4 (T)KO, 9 Sub, 0 Dec
Win Points: 11.68				Win Points: 13.07
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.53:1	7.50:1	1.90:1	Payout:	3.09:1	1.37:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	6.53	1.53	11.11	Max Bet:	4.78	13.07	1.53

My Pick: Anthony Perosh

Jimmo is on a 16 fight win streak, although 6 of his last 7 wins have been by decision. That is a bad sign for a guy who has yet to fight in the UFC in my opinion. Perosh is getting old, but his career is making a bit of a comeback after dropping to 205. Perosh's last 11 fights haven't gone to a decision, and only 2 of his 19 have. He either finishes or gets finished. Jimmo's recent track record suggests that he's not going to finish. Thus Jimmo gets finished.

Bantamweight Match [UFC149-09]
FX
Mitch Gagnon				Bryan Caraway
BW #34 / 73 points				FW #80 / 63 points
8 - 1 - 0				16 - 5 - 0
Wins: 0 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 0 Dec				Wins: 1 (T)KO, 14 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 9.70				Win Points: 9.97
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	7.50:1	0.95:1	7.50:1	Payout:	7.50:1	1.09:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	1.53	0.00	1.53	Max Bet:	1.53	9.97	1.53

My Pick: Mitch Gagnon via Decision [1.53 Point Wager]

Both fighters have quite an impressive record when it comes to finishing by submission: all of Gagnon 8 wins were by submission while 14 of Caraway's 16 were (Caraway's only professional (T)KO victory was his first win). Caraway is a former Ultimate Fighter contestant, so you know I have to pick against him. With the impressive submission background of the two, I think it's worth gambling on this one going to decision.

Featherweight Match [UFC149-10]
N/A
Daniel Pineda				Antonio Carvalho
FW #42 / 85 points				FW #103 / 52 points
17 - 8 - 0				13 - 5 - 0
Wins: 6 (T)KO, 11 Sub, 0 Dec				Wins: 6 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec
Win Points: 5.77				Win Points: 6.50
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.69:1	1.47:1	7.50:1	Payout:	2.06:1	4.12:1	3.09:1
Max Bet:	5.77	5.77	1.53	Max Bet:	6.50	3.20	4.78

My Pick: Daniel Pineda

None of Pineda's 17 wins have been by decision. Other than a win over Hatsu Hioki, Carvalho's resume doesn't appear all that impressive. I've got to go with the guy who finishes fights.

Lightweight Match [UFC149-11]
N/A
Anton Kuivanen				Mitch Clarke
LW #74 / 85 points				LW #318 / 34 points
16 - 5 - 0				9 - 1 - 0
Wins: 4 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 4 Dec				Wins: 1 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 2 Dec
Win Points: 3.64				Win Points: 4.47
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	3.80:1	1.90:1	3.80:1	Payout:	7.50:1	1.43:1	4.28:1
Max Bet:	3.57	3.64	3.57	Max Bet:	1.53	4.47	3.04

My Pick: Anton Kuivanen

Both fighters have lost in their only UFC fight, although Kuivanen lost by decision while Clarke was knocked out. Before that, each had a nine fight win streak outside the UFC. Kuivanen has had more experience and theoretically tougher opposition as his ranking is higher. I'll take the man with experience.

My Where's George Week in Review: 07/08/12 - 07/14/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 27 hits in 10 States [AZ², CA¹⁷, CO, CT, HI, NV, NY, SD, TX, WY]. I now have hits in 39 States in 2012 with 2 added this week: SD, WY. Additionally I now have hits in 437 counties with 4 new this week: Coconino AZ, Hartford CT, Lawrence SD, Teton WY.

Of those 27 hits, 1 was the 3^rd hit on the bill, 6 were the 2^nd hit on the bill, and the rest (20) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 2 Years 338 Days 19 Hours 11 Minutes after I originally entered it.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
08	09	10	11	12	13	14
8	1	5	3	4	3	3

Almost a third of this week's hits came on Sunday, but I thankfully still got a hit on each other day in the week to keep my current hit streak alive. It's now at 21 days and is closing in on being one of my top ten longest streaks all time.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, I was slightly ahead this week for each of these three categories:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	20026	20129	103	3409	21720	95.6	19398	+7	+731
Bills with Hits	2430	3109	3129	20	699	3445	19.4	2974	+1	+155
Total Hits	2799	3614	3641	27	842	4030	23.5	3458	+3	+183

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 86.99% [+0.70%]. I again cut down part of the deficit and should be back on schedule within two weeks:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	17413	17511	98	3084	18959	93.4	17517	+5	-6

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, I'm still way ahead and continue to push further ahead:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3776	3779	3	176		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	47	1544	+26	+283
2009	1339	3266	3342	76	2003		Actual	73	1827

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", there's nothing new to report (and likely won't be for a few months). I'm still inserting bills at a good clip. This one won't get interesting until that stops.

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	9746	48.67%	9787	48.62%	< 50.0%	49.94%	10110	+323
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	667	3.33%	673	3.34%	> 2.8%	2.85%	569	+104
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	676	3.38%	682	3.39%	> 2.4%	2.45%	489	+193
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	569	2.84%	576	2.86%	> 2.3%	2.35%	470	+106
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	536	2.68%	543	2.70%	> 2.2%	2.25%	453	+90
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	458	2.29%	467	2.32%	> 2.1%	2.15%	430	+37
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	456	2.28%	462	2.30%	> 1.7%	1.75%	352	+110

All around it was an OK week. Getting hits in 10 different States made this week feel better than the numbers show. In the end, how the week feels is more important than what the numbers say.

My Where's George Week in Review: 07/01/12 - 07/07/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 33 hits in 11 States [AR, AZ, CA²⁰, CO, CT, IA, MA, NV³, OR, PA, TX²]. I now have hits in 37 States in 2012 with 2 added this week: CT, IA. Additionally I now have hits in 433 counties with 4 new this week: Miller AR, Floyd IA, Nye NV, Lycoming PA.

Of those 33 hits, 2 were the 3^rd hit on the bill, 3 were the 2^nd hit on the bill, and the rest (28) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 3 Years 78 Days 17 Hours 16 Minutes after I originally entered it.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
01	02	03	04	05	06	07
4	2	5	4	9	4	5

No hit-less days this week extends my current hit streak to 14 days. The 33 hits in a week was better than any week in June, and the 9 hits on Thursday was more than any day in June. Hopefully this is a sign that July will be more like March, April, and May than my disappointing June.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, I'm still way ahead of pace on all three stats for the year (the weekly behind-ness on bills entered isn't surprising):

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	19944	20026	82	3306	21720	95.6	19302	-14	+724
Bills with Hits	2430	3081	3109	28	679	3445	19.4	2954	+9	+155
Total Hits	2799	3581	3614	33	815	4030	23.5	3435	+9	+179

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 86.95% [+0.66%]. I made back part of the deficit for where I need to be on this one. I expect that trend to continue.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	17336	17413	77	2986	18959	74.3	17424	+3	-11

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, my 2009 entries are now just 510 behind. I expect that 2009 will take the lead before September is over.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3772	3776	4	173		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	37	1498	+16	+256
2009	1339	3209	3266	57	1927		Actual	53	1754

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", all are well ahead of schedule and should remain as such:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	9717	48.72%	9746	48.67%	< 50.0%	49.94%	10062	+316
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	663	3.32%	667	3.33%	> 2.8%	2.85%	566	+101
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	671	3.36%	676	3.38%	> 2.4%	2.45%	486	+190
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	561	2.81%	569	2.84%	> 2.3%	2.35%	467	+102
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	533	2.67%	536	2.68%	> 2.2%	2.25%	451	+85
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	452	2.27%	458	2.29%	> 2.1%	2.15%	428	+30
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	450	2.26%	456	2.28%	> 1.7%	1.75%	350	+106

I entered my 20,000th bill this past week which seems both awesome and insane. I think now that I've hit a major milestone, I should think about if there's anyways I want to change how I participate in Where's George. I had been thinking that I would change my user notes into story fashion, but I haven't figured out how I wanted to do that yet. Its not too late to still go with that, but I'll need to figure it out before I start updating all of the post 20000 entries with their spent locations.

I think the 11 States hit in one week is the most I've had this year. It definitely makes things more interesting when there's a lot of non-California hits. I know that I've enjoyed looking at the hit reports more this week than on average.

Folsom Firecracker 10K

Last year, I completed two 5Ks on back-to-back days. This year I went for two 10Ks in a span of five days. I think this year's task was tougher. However, in both cases, I set a new PR on the first race.

The weather was pleasant enough for the Folsom Firecracker 10K. My plan was to start off slower than I did for the Run 4 Independence and then attempt to hold my pace fairly steady throughout the run. I was able to accomplish the first part but not the second. I think I was probably hindered in part by not being "fully recovered" from Saturday's 10K. Additionally (according to RunKeeper), the Folsom Firecracker course had 50% more climbing than Run 4 Independence, and a lot of the climbing came in the second half.

Looking at the mile split times, we see that 2/3^rds of the additional time I took in the Folsom Firecracker was taken in the first mile:

	Pace		+/-
Mile	R4I	FF	Mile	Overall
1	08:08	08:51	-43	-43
2	09:05	09:20	-15	-58
3	09:36	09:40	-4	-62
4	09:48	09:44	+4	-58
5	10:11	10:03	+8	-50
6	09:52	10:09	-17	-67
+	02:08	02:09	-1	-68

I attempted to pump myself up after the fourth mile when there was still a chance of beating my time from the Run 4 Independence (I was averaging 9:23 a mile and just needed to average 9:28 over the run), but I didn't have enough left in the tank to make it happen. However, I was able to still get myself across the line in less than an hour, and I will take that as a moral victory:

This was the first race for me in 2012 that was a repeat from 2011, and I posted a pace faster than last year's (5.83 mph). This gets me halfway to my goal of improving my pace on two events from last year.

I mentioned in my post about the Run 4 Independence that according to RunKeeper, the course was 1/20^th of a mile longer than 10K. The same thing was true with the Folsom Firecracker course. My guess is that the impreciseness of the phone GPS is more so the problem.

New Year's Running Resolutions: Mid Year Review

At the beginning of the year, I wrote about what I hoped to accomplish running wise in 2012 (you can see that article here). Now that we're midway through the year, I thought I was a good time to see how I was doing and figure out the plan for the second half of the year.

1. Participate in 12 organized runs of at least 5K
So far I've participated in 4 (all 10Ks): Folsom Super Bowl Run, Folsom Shamrock Run, Folsom Run With Nature, and Run 4 Independence. I additionally had signed up for the Sacramento Zoo Zoom, but I was sick that weekend and passed on participating. Getting 8 more events in this year may not happen. To help out with my planning, I've create a program that pulls race information from a few sites that I check, compiles that information, and then I publish it to the Runs I'm Considering page of this blog.

I've signed up for the Folsom Firecracker 10K and plan to sign up for the runs that I did last year (except the Banding Together for PARTY run that isn't scheduled for this year). That would get me to 9 events. I'm thinking I might do the Making the Grade/Run for Education 10K and Run Because You Can 10K. Part of that will depend on when (if?) Intel holds their Great Place to Work 5K. I currently don't have anything planned for July and August after the Firecracker run, so finding a race that fits in that time frame would be good.

2. Lower my 5K Personal Record to below 27 minutes
I haven't ran a 5K yet, so this one is still pending. I only have one 5K planned (although if I do pick up a race in July/August, it's looking like it'll be a 5K), so I'm not sure this one will happen. 27 minutes will be my target for any 5Ks I do take on.

Set/Lower my 10K Personal Record to below 62 minutes
Done! Three of my four 10Ks have been better than 62 minutes with only the extremely hilly and hot Run with Nature time coming above that. For the second half of the year, I'd like to break my personal record (58:48) once again.

4. Increase my "Pace Record" at two or more events
I haven't repeated any events yet (since all of the events I ran last year were in the second half). I'll have only 5 chances, and if I focus on 10Ks, my only real opportunities will be the Folsom Firecracker, Intel GPTW Fun Run 5K (since it's a 5K only), and the Jingle Bell Rock'n Run. I still have hope to make this one.

WG Predictions/Goals/Wishes Update: June

Hit-wise, June was a disappointment beating only February in terms of total hits (115 vs 113). Here's hoping that July reaches the levels of the other months of 2012.

• Predictions
• 13.66 Bills Entered Per Day
• I entered 651 bills in June for an average of 21.70 bills per day. This puts the yearly total to 3224 and raises the daily average to 18.26. To hit this goal, I'll just have to average 9.65 for the rest of the year. Since I'm well ahead on this goal, and it appears that I'm easily going to surpass this goal, I now predict I'll enter 5750 bills this year. The predictions below will be based on this updated number.
• 1231 Hits in 2012 / 4030 Overall Hits
• I got 115 hits in June bringing the yearly total to 782 which is ahead of where I need to be for my 2012 goal. Including the new data from June, the hit prediction program from the original prediction post calculated that I'd get 721 more hits in 2012. That would result in 1503 hits in 2012 and 4302 overall. My expected slugging percentage would be 19.15% (down 0.07% from last month due to the increase in bills entered).
• 1015 Additional Bills with Hits in 2012 / 3445 Overall Bills with Hits
• Of the 115 hits, 94 were the initial hit on a bill putting my additional bills with hits in 2012 at 651. Using the output from the prediction program and Excel, I obtained a calculation of 583 more bills with hits. That would result in 1234 in 2012 and 3664 overall. That would put my expected hit rate at 16.31% (down 0.08% from last month again due to the increase in bills entered due to the increase in bills entered).
• State Bingo Completion
• Still waiting on West Virginia.
• One Additional California County Hit in 2012 / 53 Counties Hit Overall
• Completed last month. No new additional CA counties in June.
• 17 Additional FRB Bingos / 57 FRB Bingos Overall
• I completed 6 additional FRB bingos in June to put my total to 58 completing this prediction. That puts me on pace for 29 in the year which would suggest I'll end the year with 69.
• No More Than 13 Hitless Days
• I had my fourth hitless day in June. I still seem to be in good shape for this one.
• 80+ Day Hit Streak
• Already completed (81 day streak). Current streak is at 7 days.
• Goals
• National Rank Under 1000 in November & December
• I was never higher than 898 in June. This is looking like a slam dunk.
• State Rank Under 75
• The first part of the month my rank was mostly in the lower 70s. The latter part mostly in the upper 60s. Looks like this one is within reach.
• $1s Making Up >87.29% of All Entries
• I ended the month at 86.92% (down 0.02% from last month). It was a bit of a rough month for this one, but I think I'll get back to making progress in the next few months.
• More Series 2009 Entries Than 2003A
• 2003A's lead is now under 600. I think 2009 will take the lead either in September or October.
• Decrease San Francisco "L" FRB Bills Below 50%
• The San Francisco percentage is now down to 48.7%. I think it will continue to decrease as my insertion rate is high, and then the key will be whether or not it stays below.
• Increase Percentage of Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St. Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J" FRB Bills
• All are currently above the desired percentage.
• 30 Zip Codes with 25+ Entries
• I added 4 zip codes to this club in June: 95227 (Clements, CA), 77060 (Houston, TX), 77550 (Galveston, TX), and 89449 (Stateline, NV). I'm now at 26 zip codes with 25+ entries.
• Wishes
• 5 Hit Bill
• No five hit bill yet.
• New Record Month for Hits
• Not re-broken in June. New record is still 160 hits.
• Surpass 500 2006 L-L $1 Entries
• Completed in May. Only 1 additional entered in June bringing the total to 506.
• Surpass 400 Entries with one 2009 FRB/Block Combo and 300 with Another
• My top 2009 block is LG with 321 entries with 17 entered in June and 156 total in 2012. If I continue to enter LGs at this pace, it will get to 400. LB is second with 303 (13 in June, 68 in 2012). Third is LF with 278 (15 in June, 83 in 2012). LF should hit 300. No other series 2009 FRB/block combo has reached 200 entries. Although not at 100 entries yet, I think LK will be part of this conversation after a couple months.
• Complete Non-Star Portions of Series 2003A and 2006 $1 Bingo
• No new spots marked off in June, so I still have 6 more spots to go for each bingo and haven't crossed off a spot on 2003A all year. This one is not going to happen.
• 4+ Year Active Bill
• I got a hit on 2006 $10 IB639---42A 4 Years, 3 Days, 22 Hours, 54 Minutes after I entered it. Wish completed!

My Where's George Week in Review: 06/24/12 - 06/30/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 28 hits in 7 States [CA¹⁹, CO, HI, LA, MD², NJ, TX²] as well as an international hit in Barrie, Canada. I still have hits in 35 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 429 counties with 1 new this week: Logan CO.

Of those 28 hits, 5 were the 2^nd hit on the bill and the rest (23) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 3 Years 34 Days 10 Hours 11 Minutes after I originally entered it. This bill is now my 12th longest active.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
24	25	26	27	28	29	30
5	5	2	4	7	2	3

Since my last hit streak ended at the end of the last week, my new streak is now 7 days long.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, I went a little crazy entering bills while on vacation in Tahoe (more so, I went crazy playing slots):

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	19622	19944	322	3224	21720	95.6	19206	+226	+738
Bills with Hits	2430	3058	3081	23	651	3445	19.4	2935	+4	+146
Total Hits	2799	3553	3581	28	782	4030	23.5	3411	+4	+170

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 86.92% [+0.63%]. I fell more behind this week, but I think I'll start to make up ground next week.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	17056	17336	280	2909	18959	291.9	17349	-12	-13

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, for as many bills as I entered this week, I'm surprised that I wasn't even further over the needed pace. Guess a lot of the extra bills entered were 2006s.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3755	3772	17	169		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	146	1460	+13	+241
2009	1339	3033	3209	176	1870		Actual	159	1701

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", all are still way ahead of schedule. Additionally, Minneapolis bills have re-surpassed Kansas City in entries:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	9584	48.84%	9717	48.72%	< 50.0%	49.94%	10024	+307
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	644	3.28%	663	3.32%	> 2.8%	2.85%	564	+99
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	661	3.37%	671	3.36%	> 2.4%	2.45%	484	+187
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	549	2.80%	561	2.81%	> 2.3%	2.35%	465	+96
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	524	2.67%	533	2.67%	> 2.2%	2.25%	449	+84
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	431	2.20%	452	2.27%	> 2.1%	2.15%	426	+26
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	438	2.23%	450	2.26%	> 1.7%	1.75%	349	+101

Hopefully this crazy week of bill entries pays off in some crazy weeks of hits in the next couple months.