At the start of February, the UFC starting publishing media voted fighter rankings. At that time, I wrote a post comparing the UFC's rankings with those of Fight Matrix which uses a computer program to rank fighters. At the time I used a set of rules for determining who got the next title fight and who would take part in the next #1 contender match. Those rules were:
- The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
- The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
At the time, I broke down the rankings division-by-division to identify the next title contender and #1 contenders match participants for each division based on both of the rankings. Fighters don't fight enough to require reviewing that frequently, but I thought breaking down each division might be. As such, I've decided to do a division-by-division look at what I think should happen next. Along with the UFC and Fight Matrix rankings mentioned above, I'll also be using the rankings from Sherdog and MMA Weekly: two sites I also frequently visit for MMA news. I'll be combining the rankings from the four to get a "unified" ranking.
A few caveats must be noted before I proceed. The UFC rankings essentially have the champion at position 0. I'll be considering the champion rank 1 and move down the other fighters in the rankings respectively. The other rankings include non-UFC fighters. For Fight Matrx, the rankings are deep enough to grab a UFC top 10. Sherdog includes an "other contenders" section. In the event the top 10 includes non-UFC fighters, the "other contenders" from the UFC will be considered as tied for the bottom spot(s) and will split points accordingly. For Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly, the actual ranking position will be noted when it doesn't match the used position.
Combined Rankings
| UFC | Fight Matrix | Sherdog | MMA Weekly | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last Update: | 04/15/2013 | 04/14/2013 | 03/18/2013 | 04/16/2013 | |||||||||
| 1. | Georges St-Pierre | 1 | (0) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2. | Johny Hendricks | 2 | (1) | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||||||
| 3. | Carlos Condit | 3 | (2) | 5 | 3 | 3 | |||||||
| 4. | Jake Ellenberger | 5 | (4) | 3 | 7 | (8) | 5 | ||||||
| 5. | Demian Maia | 6 | (5) | 4 | 5 | 7 | |||||||
| 6. | Martin Kampmann | 8 | (7) | 6 | 6 | (7) | 4 | ||||||
| 7. | Rory MacDonald | 4 | (3) | 8 | (9) | 8 | (10) | 6 | |||||
| 8. | Nick Diaz | 7 | (6) | 7 | 4 | 9 | |||||||
| 9. | Robbie Lawler | 10 | (9) | 9 | (10) | T9 | (OC) | 8 | |||||
| 10. | Tarec Saffiedine | 9 | (8) | 10 | (11) | T9 | (OC) | ||||||
| Josh Koscheck | T9 | (OC) | 10 | ||||||||||
| Nate Marquardt | T9 | (OC) | |||||||||||
| Mike Pierce | T9 | (OC) | |||||||||||
Matches I'd Make
As with the lightweights, the #2 welterweight, Johny Hendricks, qualifies for the next title shot, so he gets GSP next. Jake Ellenberger and Demian Maia are the highest rated fighters that qualify for the #1 contenders match, so they'll face off for the next shot at welterweight gold. There are three other fighters in the top ten coming off of a win: Rory MacDonald, Robbie Lawler, and Tarec Saffiedine. Of the three guys ranked that didn't make the combined top ten, only Mike Pierce is coming off of a win. I'll match up MacDonald with Lawler and Saffiedine with Pierce knowing that the winners will likely face off in the next contenders match. As for those coming off of a loss, there is the possibility of matching up Carlos Condit and Nick Diaz in a rematch of their highly disputed interim title match. Diaz doesn't seem to be interested in any opponents other than GSP or Anderson Silva. As such, I'll match up Condit with Martin Kampmann (a rematch of their close split decision fight from a few years ago). Then I'd offer Diaz a fight with Josh Koscheck. If he didn't take it, I'd give that fight to Marquardt instead.
Matches the UFC has Made
Hendricks is the current #1 contender, but no match date has been set yet as GSP will be off for a bit to act in the Captain America sequel. Ellenberger has been matched up with MacDonald. Lawler will be taking on Saffiedine next in a bout between Strikeforce imports. Pierce has been matched up with the much lower ranked David Mitchell.
Matches I'd Add to the UFC's
Maia's the only member of the top ten coming off of a win without an opponent. There are really three potentials for him: the winner of Mike Pyle/Rick Story, the winner of Tyron Woodley/Jake Shields, or the winner of Jordan Mein/Matt Brown. If Mein wins this weekend, I'd match those two up. Otherwise, I'd give him the Pyle/Story winner.
As for those coming off of a loss, all of my matches are still possible, so I'd switch with Condit/Kampmann and Koscheck/Diaz (or Marquardt).
Seems unfortunate for the division that the title is back on hold while GSP films a movie. Wouldn't be so bad had the division not yet had to suffer through roughly a year and a half without him.
Of the divisions covered so far, I expect that this one will see the biggest change in the makeup of the top ten over the next year. There are quite a few contenders knocking on the door, and I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see one of the fighters from this list get cut before the year is out.
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