My UFC 159 Fight Picks

In the past three UFC events, there have only been two upsets. Last week, the couple upsets worked out in my favor and I gained a few points on the league leader. This week I'm not seeing any compelling underdogs, and I've actually picked all the favorites. Seems cheap, but there's a lot of one-sided affairs in this event.

Featherweight Match [UFC159-12]
N/A
Match Points: 5.02
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #46	Steven Siler (21-10)	-131	3.83	8.85
LW #194	Kurt Holobaugh (9-1)	+107	5.37	10.39

Siler and Holobaugh are both coming off of losses, but Siler had 3 wins in the UFC prior to that loss. I think experience will win out here, so I'm going with the "Super" one.

Welterweight Match [UFC159-11]
N/A
Match Points: 5.34
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
WW #31	James Head (9-3)	-160	3.34	8.68
WW #341	Nick Catone (9-4)	+134	7.16	12.50

Catone missed 170 by a good three pounds at weigh ins, and I'm guessing he's going to be suffering from a tough weight cut. Not a good way to start off his drop to welterweight. I'll go with Head who should be in better shape.

Featherweight Match [UFC159-10]
N/A
Match Points: 3.10
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #155	Leonard Garcia (15-10-1)	-174	1.78	4.88
FW #166	Cody McKenzie (13-3)	+149	4.62	7.72

I so do not want to be picking Garcia here, but McKenzie hasn't been that good since winning The Ultimate Fighter. Garcia's wild style wins him points with the judges, and I think there's a good chance that Cody will be overwhelmed by the onslaught.

Bantamweight Match [UFC159-09]
FX
Match Points: 12.18
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
BW #21	Bryan Caraway (17-6)	+117	14.25	26.43
BW #29	Johnny Bedford (19-9-1)	-141	8.64	20.82

Caraway is a late replacement in this fight and is coming off of a hard fought split decision loss last month. I have a hard time believe he's ready for this fight. Bedford's main weakness is to submissions (Caraway's speciality). Regardless, I think the readiness factor will put this in Bedford's favor.

Bantamweight Match [UFC159-08]
FX
Match Points: 14.46
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
W135 #5	Sara McMann (6-0)	-702	2.06	16.52
W125 #5	Sheila Gaff (10-4-1)	+477	68.97	83.43

The third woman's UFC bout ever. McMann is a former Olympian, and the UFC surely wants to eventually have an Olympian vs Olympian match between her and Rousey (even better if both are still undefeated). Gaff was fighting at flyweight prior to signing with the UFC and will be the smaller fighter in this match. I'll go with the undefeated favorite.

Light Heavyweight Match [UFC159-07]
FX
Match Points: 9.99
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LHW #44	Ovince St. Preux (12-5)	-201	4.97	14.96
LHW #59	Gian Villante (10-3)	+166	16.58	26.57

A battle between two Strikeforce imports. St. Preux had a strong run in the Strikeforce light heavyweight division and is looking to make his mark in the UFC. Villante is on a three fight win streak but has definitely not taken on as strong of competition. I'll take the favorite.

Lightweight Match [UFC159-06]
FX
Match Points: 5.87
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #127	Rustam Khabilov (15-1)	-308	1.91	7.78
NR	Yancy Medeiros (9-0)	+246	14.44	20.31

I'm not familiar with either of the two which is surprising as this is the FX "main event". The favorite has UFC experience whlie the underdog doesn't, and that's the deciding factor for me.

Lightweight Match [UFC159-05]
PPV / Main Card
Match Points: 18.47
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LW #12	Jim Miller (22-4)	-323	5.72	24.19
LW #14	Pat Healy (29-16)	+255	47.10	65.57

Healy was approaching the top of the heap in Strikeforce when it was merged into the UFC. Miller's been near the top of the UFC for a few years now. And while the Strikeforce vs UFC lightweight fights last week were split, Miller's going to show how much deeper the UFC's division was.

Light Heavyweight Match [UFC159-04]
PPV / Main Card
Match Points: 17.51
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LHW #15	Phil Davis (10-1, 1 NC)	-329	5.32	22.83
LHW #29	Vinny Magalhaes (10-5, 1 NC)	+262	45.88	63.39

Vinny is in his second stint in the UFC, and I'm not sure why he's already getting a test as tough as this one in the form of Mr. Wonderful. Phil "Pink Shorts" Davis takes this one without exerting much effort.

Heavyweight Match [UFC159-03]
PPV / Main Card
Match Points: 18.35
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
HW #12	Roy Nelson (18-7)	-239	7.68	26.03
HW #16	Cheick Kongo (18-7-2)	+194	35.60	53.95

Big Country has only been knocked out once and it's very unlikely Kongo will be the second to accomplish that. Cheick is also unlikely to be able to impose his will on Nelson and hold him against the fence for three rounds. Roy will win by KO and put himself back in the title conversation.

Middleweight Match [UFC159-02]
PPV / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Match Points: 18.86
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #11	Michael Bisping (23-5)	-171	11.03	29.89
MW #17	Alan Belcher (18-7)	+145	27.35	46.21

Bisping is an overrated prick. I so totally want to pick Belcher here. However, I've been burned a number of times this year by picking the guy I wanted to win. Sadly I think I have to go with "The Count" here.

Light Heavyweight Match [UFC159-01]
PPV / Main Card / Main Event / Championship
Match Points: 23.86
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LHW #1	Jon Jones (17-1)	-909	2.62	26.48
MW #3	Chael Sonnen (27-12-1)	+624	148.89	172.75

There's not much to really say about this match. For those that are upset that the featherweight title is going to be defended against lightweights twice in a row should be even more upset about a second striaght middleweight challenging for the light heavyweight title. Regardless of what Dana White says, Chael doesn't desire this title shot and there's little hope for him here.