My The Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale Fight Picks

It's actually been a pretty good season of The Ultimate Fighter, and I'm not bummed to see so many fighters from the house on the card. The non-TUF fights on the main card are all quality too with implications to the future of three divisions.

Featherweight Match [TUFF17-12]
N/A
Match Points: 3.70
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #83	Daniel Pineda (17-9)	-125	2.96	6.66
FW #282	Justin Lawrence (4-1)	-105	3.52	7.22

This fight seems like much-too-much of a step up for Justin Lawrence. He didn't fare so well against Max Halloway, and I don't expect much more success against Daniel "The Pit" Pineda.

Featherweight Match [TUFF17-11]
N/A
Match Points: 2.97
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #144	Maximo Blanco (8-4-1, 1 NC)	-246	1.21	4.18
FW #208	Sam Sicilia (11-2)	+194	5.76	8.73

Neither fighter has been able to replicate his success prior to joining the UFC in the octogon, but Sicilia did start off his UFC career with a KO. I have a feeling the loser is going to get handed their walking papers, and something makes me think that fighter will be the favorite. See ya Blanco.

Featherweight Match [TUFF17-10]
N/A
Match Points: 6.59
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
FW #30	Bart Palaszewski (36-16)	-180	3.66	10.25
FW #101	Cole Miller (18-7)	+148	9.75	16.34

I don't like Palaszewski, but he certainly can bang. Both fighters have dropped two in a row and three of their last four. Bartimus owns a [split] decision victory over Anthony Pettis (surprisingly). Overall, Miller has lost to the worse competition, so I'm sadly going to have to go with Palaszewski.

Middleweight Match [TUFF17-09]
Fuel
Match Points: 4.98
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #76	Bristol Marunde (12-7)	+125	6.23	11.21
MW #231	Clint Hester (7-3)	-158	3.15	8.13

Hester took part in the much more impressive season of TUF than Marunde. While I recall Bristol having some skill, Clint seems like he has much more punching power, and I think he'll handle Marunde fairly easily.

Middleweight Match [TUFF17-08]
Fuel
Match Points: 3.71
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #147	Dylan Andrews (15-4, 1 NC)	-124	2.99	6.70
MW #336	Jimmy Quinlan (3-0)	-107	3.47	7.18

The first of five fights solely featuring competitors from this most recent season of TUF. Dylan made it to the semifinals while Jimmy was eliminated in the quarters, so I'll take the fighter that progressed farther.

Middleweight Match [TUFF17-07]
Fuel
Match Points: 3.18
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #241	Luke Barnatt (5-0)	-132	2.41	5.59
NR	Collin Hart (4-1-1)	+101	3.21	6.39

Another one of the TUF matches. On the show, Luke lost to semifinalist Dylan while Colin lost to finalist Kelvin. Barnatt was the first pick of the season and was competitive in his loss which is more than I can say about Hart. I'll go with the top pick.

Middleweight Match [TUFF17-06]
Fuel
Match Points: 3.92
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #165	Kevin Casey (5-2)	+251	9.84	13.76
MW #181	Josh Samman (9-2)	-332	1.18	5.10

The third TUF fight in a row. I'm surprised this one didn't get the main card slot over the next fight as it features Josh who was expected to be in the final with Uriah Hall. Kevin has the unfortunate distinction of being the only fighter to make the house to lose twice (the second time being in the wild card match). Casey's style is well-suited to Samman, and I expect Josh to (T)KO him.

Middleweight Match [TUFF17-05]
FX / Main Card
Match Points: 9.06
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
LHW #65	Robert McDaniel (20-6)	-166	5.46	14.52
NR	Gilbert Smith (5-1)	+134	12.14	21.20

The final non-championship TUF match up of the night features the fighter that I probably liked least this season: Bubba McDaniel. That may be unfair to Bubba as a large part of why I didn't like him was the favoritism he got from Jones from being a training partner. He probably has the edge in this fight, but I don't think it's to the extend the odds state.

Heavyweight Match [TUFF17-04]
FX / Main Card
Match Points: 15.30
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
HW #12	Gabriel Gonzaga (14-6)	+234	35.80	51.10
HW #17	Travis Browne (13-1-1)	-306	5.00	20.30

Is Browne truly healed from the knee injury that resulted in him dropping his last fight to Big Foot Silva? Is Gonzaga truly back and working his way back towards the top? This fight will answer those questions. Gabe definitely has a chance in this one, but I think I'm going to have to go with the favorite regardless.

Women's 135 Match [TUFF17-03]
FX / Main Card / #1 Contender Match
Match Points: 17.10
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
W135 #2	Miesha Tate (13-3)	-108	15.83	32.93
W135 #6	Cat Zingano (7-0)	-122	14.02	31.12

I'm surprised that Tate is the underdog although only slightly. Sure Zingano is undefeated, but Miesha has been champion and almost lasted a round in her fight against Rousey. I don't even recognize any of the opponents Zingano has defeated while I have some familiarity with most of Tate's past opponents. Although I'm not sure that it's time for Rousey/Tate 2, I think that's what we're going to get.

Middleweight Match [TUFF17-02]
FX / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Match Points: 8.12
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
MW #152	Uriah Hall (7-2)	-341	2.38	10.50
NR	Kelvin Gastelum (5-0)	+267	21.68	29.80

Gastelum was the underdog in every fight during the season, and once again, he plays that role. Uriah quickly jumped out as the favorite, and Sonnen has gone as far to say that he thinks Hall could beat anyone in the middleweight division. I don't know that I buy that, but he certainly is a beast. If he can avoid getting taken and held down by Kelvin, he should get the (T)KO and the TUF trophy.

Bantamweight Match [TUFF17-01]
FX / Main Card / Main Event
Match Points: 16.29
Rank	Fighter	Line	Points	Total
BW #4	Urijah Faber (27-6)	-456	3.57	19.86
BW #27	Scott Jorgensen (14-6)	+352	57.34	73.63

So far in his career, Faber has only lost in title fights. This is a big fight for Jorgensen who has yet to defeat "elite" competition. And unfortunately for "Young Guns", he's unlikely to get that first big win here. I expect Urijah to dominate and pad his resume to suggest that he deserves yet another title shot.