At the start of February, the UFC starting publishing media voted fighter rankings. At that time, I wrote a post comparing the UFC's rankings with those of Fight Matrix which uses a computer program to rank fighters. At the time I used a set of rules for determining who got the next title fight and who would take part in the next #1 contender match. Those rules were:
- The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
- The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
At the time, I broke down the rankings division-by-division to identify the next title contender and #1 contenders match participants for each division based on both of the rankings. Fighters don't fight enough to require reviewing that frequently, but I thought breaking down each division might be. As such, I've decided to do a division-by-division look at what I think should happen next. Along with the UFC and Fight Matrix rankings mentioned above, I'll also be using the rankings from Sherdog and MMA Weekly: two sites I also frequently visit for MMA news. I'll be combining the rankings from the four to get a "unified" ranking.
A few caveats must be noted before I proceed. The UFC rankings essentially have the champion at position 0. I'll be considering the champion rank 1 and move down the other fighters in the rankings respectively. The other rankings include non-UFC fighters. For Fight Matrx, the rankings are deep enough to grab a UFC top 10. Sherdog includes an "other contenders" section. In the event the top 10 includes non-UFC fighters, the "other contenders" from the UFC will be considered as tied for the bottom spot(s) and will split points accordingly. For Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly, the actual ranking position will be noted when it doesn't match the used position.
With Dominick Cruz being on the shelf for nearly 18 months now, the non-UFC ranking systems don't include him. And while he's still the champion, and as such, should be considered the UFC's #1, I've left him off so that the focus is on the active fighters.
Combined Rankings
| UFC | Fight Matrix | Sherdog | MMA Weekly | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last Update: | 03/18/2013 | 03/24/2013 | 03/18/2013 | 03/26/2013 | |||||||||
| 1. | Renan Barao | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| 2. | Urijah Faber | 2 | 2 | (4) | 2 | 3 | |||||||
| 3. | Michael McDonald | 3 | 6 | (10) | 3 | 2 | |||||||
| 4. | Eddie Wineland | 4 | 3 | (6) | 4 | 4 | |||||||
| 5. | Brad Pickett | 5 | 8 | (13) | 5 | 5 | (6) | ||||||
| 6. | Raphael Assuncao | 6 | 4 | (7) | 7 | 6 | (7) | ||||||
| 7. | Scott Jorgensen | 7 | 6 | ||||||||||
| 8. | Mike Easton | 9 | T8 | (OC) | 7 | (8) | |||||||
| 9. | Iuri Alcantara | 5 | (8) | ||||||||||
| 10. | Takeya Mizugaki | 7 | (11) | T8 | (OC) | ||||||||
| Brian Bowles | 8 | ||||||||||||
| Erik Perez | 8 | (9) | |||||||||||
| Ivan Menjivar | 10 | T8 | (OC) | ||||||||||
| Bryan Caraway | 9 | (20) | |||||||||||
| T.J. Dillashaw | T8 | (OC) | |||||||||||
| George Roop | 10 | (23) | |||||||||||
Matches I'd Make
TBD
Eddie Wineland, at #3, is the highest ranked fighter that qualifies for the title shot, so he gets the next shot at Barao. Raphael Assuncao and Scott Jorgensen are both coming off of wins and would be matched up to fight for the next title shot, but Jorgensen has recently lost to the champion (Barao) and hasn't won enough fights since to qualify for a #1 contenders match. Jorgensen's loss is Takeya Mizugaki's gain and he gets the spot. Ironic, since Jorgensen holds a win over Mizugaki. To help Jorgensen get back into the picture, I'd match him up with Urijah Faber. The winner would get to be in the next #1 contenders match. The rest of the combined top ten is coming off of a loss. To help one of the two get back on track, I'd match up Michael McDonald with Brad Pickett. I'd do the same with Mike Easton and Iuri Alcantara, although that's a bit rough for Alcantara who got screwed with a No Contest in his last fight.
Matches the UFC has Made
The UFC agrees with me and has already set up Wineland to face off with Barao at UFC 161. Faber is getting Jorgensen in a few weeks to headline the Ultimate Fighter Finale. Pickett and Easton are facing off on the Fuel TV card next weekend. Alcantara's been matched up against Marcos Vinicius Borges Pancini.
Matches I'd Add to the UFC's
McDonald, Assuncao, and Mizugaki are the only fighters from the combined top ten not to have their next fight scheduled. I'll keep my Assuncao versus Mizugaki matchup intact. So the question becomes what to do with McDonald. The best route is probably to give him the loser of Faber/Jorgensen. If they want to match him up sooner, I'd go with Ivan Menjivar.
Assuming that Cruz doesn't return in time to face off with the winner of Barao/Wineland, it'll be interesting to see if the UFC gives Faber a second crack at Barao (assuming he wins) or not. Regardless, if there's another interim title fight after UFC 161, the UFC should strip Dominick of the title, and then give him a quick path back to a title shot when/if he returns. While I wouldn't consider Cruz a big-time star, the bantanweight division is certainly lacking in star power without him.
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