My UFC on FOX 4 Picks

Light Heavyweight Match [FOX4-01]
FOX / Main Card / Main Event / #1 Contender Match
Mauricio Rua				Brandon Vera
LHW #4 / 562 points				LHW #29 / 120 points
20 - 6 - 0				12 - 5 - 0 (1 NC)
Wins: 17 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 2 Dec				Wins: 7 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 4 Dec
Win Points: 17.62				Win Points: 23.68
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.12:1	7.50:1	7.50:1	Payout:	1.63:1	7.50:1	2.85:1
Max Bet:	17.62	1.53	1.53	Max Bet:	15.87	1.53	5.40

My Pick: Mauricio Rua

I was tempted to pick Rua by (T)KO for the max points, but it'd be a bummer to lose over 17 points in an attempt to win an additional 2. I have little doubt that Shogun wins this, and even if he doesn't, I can't see a situation where someone would pick Vera.

Light Heavyweight Match [FOX4-02]
FOX / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Lyoto Machida				Ryan Bader
LHW #5 / 479 points				LHW #6 / 450 points
17 - 3 - 0				14 - 2 - 0
Wins: 6 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 9 Dec				Wins: 6 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 5 Dec
Win Points: 18.76				Win Points: 19.05
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.69:1	7.50:1	1.79:1	Payout:	2.22:1	4.43:1	2.66:1
Max Bet:	5.91	1.53	12.65	Max Bet:	8.19	2.91	6.02

My Pick: Lyoto Machida

Machida has lost 3 of his last 4 (arguably 4 of his last 5 although the Rampage loss could also be argued). Bader is coming off of the biggest win of his career although Quienton wasn't quite the usual beast. Regardless, I see Lyoto taking this one as he'll be too elusive for Bader and use his experience to take the victory.

Lightweight Match [FOX4-03]
FOX / Main Card
Joe Lauzon				Jamie Varner
LW #29 / 140 points				LW #32 / 137 points
21 - 7 - 0				20 - 6 - 1 (2 NC)
Wins: 4 (T)KO, 17 Sub, 0 Dec				Wins: 7 (T)KO, 11 Sub, 2 Dec
Win Points: 15.60				Win Points: 15.68
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	4.99:1	1.17:1	7.50:1	Payout:	2.71:1	1.73:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	2.50	15.60	1.53	Max Bet:	5.84	13.69	1.53

My Pick: Jamie Varner

I do not like J-Lau. Varner is not a favorite of mine either, but it was pretty electric watching him destroy Barboza at UFC 146 (I was there). Neither really has any true "elite" wins. I think Varner is still hungry to redeem himself after his exile from Zuffa, and Lauzon will be his second victim.

Welterweight Match [FOX4-04]
FOX / Main Card
DaMarques Johnson				Mike Swick
WW #102 / 69 points				NR / 17 points
15 - 10 - 0				14 - 4 - 0
Wins: 6 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 2 Dec				Wins: 7 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec
Win Points: 9.62				Win Points: 12.69
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.38:1	2.04:1	7.13:1	Payout:	1.90:1	4.43:1	3.33:1
Max Bet:	7.24	9.61	1.63	Max Bet:	11.11	2.91	4.29

My Pick: Mike Swick

It's been almost two and a half years since we've seen Mike "Quick" Swick. He was on a two fight losing streak at the time with the first of those a loss to Dan Hardy that cost Swick a title shot. Johnson has been less than impressive in his UFC career (I wonder why he is still around ...). This match seems like it was put together to give Swick a tune-up/rust-remover. Swick's career is in big trouble if he doesn't win this one.

Featherweight Match [FOX4-05]
Fuel
Nam Phan				Cole Miller
FW #88 / 58 points				FW #90 / 58 points
17 - 10 - 0				18 - 6 - 0
Wins: 7 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 5 Dec				Wins: 3 (T)KO, 13 Sub, 2 Dec
Win Points: 5.96				Win Points: 5.96
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.31:1	3.23:1	3.23:1	Payout:	5.70:1	1.32:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	5.96	4.48	4.48	Max Bet:	2.12	5.96	1.53

My Pick: Cole Miller via Decision [1.53 Point Wager]

My guess is that Nam Phan remains with the UFC solely due to his exciting duo of fights with Leonard Garcia. He has won a mere 5 of his last 13 fights. Cole's first trip down to 145 didn't go in his favor, but he was somewhat successful as a lightweight before deciding to drop down. I think Miller easily outclasses Phan here. Since Miller usually wins by submission and Phan has yet to be submitted, I think it's worth the 1.5 wager on a decision.

Light Heavyweight Match [FOX4-06]
Fuel
Phil Davis				Wagner Prado
LHW #13 / 214 points				LHW #178 / 27 points
9 - 1 - 0				8 - 0 - 0
Wins: 2 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec				Wins: 7 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 7.33				Win Points: 10.30
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	4.28:1	2.85:1	2.14:1	Payout:	1.09:1	7.50:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	3.04	5.40	7.33	Max Bet:	10.30	1.53	1.53

My Pick: Phil Davis

After headlining the second UFC on FOX card, Mr. Wonderful somehow gets relegated to the prelims for this fight and gets the honor of welcoming a newcomer to the octogon. Prado has knocked out 7 of his 8 opponents, and six of those came in the first round. Without knowing much about Prado or the quality of his competition, I'm going to have to go with the fighter I know.

Featherweight Match [FOX4-07]
Fuel
Rani Yahya				Josh Grispi
FW #38 / 93 points				FW #104 / 52 points
16 - 7 - 0				14 - 3 - 0
Wins: 0 (T)KO, 14 Sub, 2 Dec				Wins: 6 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 6.82				Win Points: 7.84
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	7.50:1	1.09:1	7.50:1	Payout:	2.22:1	1.90:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	1.53	6.82	1.53	Max Bet:	7.84	7.84	1.53

My Pick: Rani Yahya

Yahya has lost 3 of his last 4, but all of those opponents were quality. Grispi lost his last 2 (his only 2 in the UFC). Rani has more experience and against better competition, and with that, I will pick him over "The Fluke".

Heavyweight Match [FOX4-08]
Fuel
Philip De Fries				Oli Thompson
HW #66 / 48 points				HW #217 / 21 points
8 - 1 - 0 (1 NC)				9 - 3 - 0
Wins: 0 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 1 Dec				Wins: 3 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 4.97				Win Points: 6.00
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	7.50:1	1.09:1	7.50:1	Payout:	2.85:1	1.71:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	1.53	4.97	1.53	Max Bet:	5.40	6.00	1.53

My Pick: Philip De Fries

Both fighters are coming off of a loss, but for De Fries, it's the only loss of his career. Both guys are still largely an unknown, as such, I'll go with the fighter with the better record and ranking.

Featherweight Match [FOX4-09]
Fuel
Manny Gamburyan				Michihiro Omigawa
FW #20 / 127 points				FW #39 / 89 points
11 - 7 - 0				13 - 11 - 1
Wins: 2 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 3 Dec				Wins: 4 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 7 Dec
Win Points: 9.44				Win Points: 10.30
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	5.23:1	1.74:1	3.48:1	Payout:	3.09:1	6.18:1	1.76:1
Max Bet:	2.36	9.44	4.03	Max Bet:	4.78	1.93	10.30

My Pick: Manny Gamburyan

What seems to be a re-occurring theme at the bottom of the card, both fighters are currently in a bit of a slump. I'm not a fan of Gamburyan, but Omigawa seems to be past his prime, and The Anvil will probably help send me another step towards retirement.

Bantamweight Match [FOX4-10]
Fuel
Ulysses Gomez				John Moraga
BW #70 / 51 points				BW #204 / 27 points
9 - 2 - 0				10 - 1 - 0
Wins: 0 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 2 Dec				Wins: 1 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 4 Dec
Win Points: 4.94				Win Points: 5.74
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	7.50:1	1.22:1	4.28:1	Payout:	7.50:1	1.90:1	2.38:1
Max Bet:	1.53	4.94	3.04	Max Bet:	1.53	5.74	5.74

My Pick: John Moraga

Both are unknown to me and new to the UFC. Both have only lost via decision and scored their highest amount of victories via submission. Moraga's decision loss was to John Dodson while Gomez's two were to names I didn't recognize. Thus I'll go with John.