| Lightweight Match [UFC150-01] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card / Main Event / Championship | |||||||
| Ben Henderson | Frankie Edgar | ||||||
| LW #1 / 585 points | LW #2 / 517 points | ||||||
| 16 - 2 - 0 | 14 - 2 - 1 | ||||||
| Wins: 2 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 6 Dec | Wins: 3 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 8 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 23.58 | Win Points: 24.32 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 7.50:1 | 1.90:1 | 2.53:1 | Payout: | 4.43:1 | 4.43:1 | 1.66:1 |
| Max Bet: | 1.53 | 11.11 | 6.53 | Max Bet: | 2.91 | 2.91 | 15.15 |
This fight could be one of the better and closer title fights of the year. Neither fighter comes into this fight as an overwhelming favorite. I'm picking Henderson more so as a fan, although I did pick Henderson in the last fight. I think Benson will use his size to his advantage, and other than point-fighting, I don't see how Edgar wins this one. In the last fight, Frankie failed to do much damage with any of his punches. While everyone talks about how great Frankie is in rematches, Henderson put up a much more impressive performance the second time around against Cerrone.
| Lightweight Match [UFC150-02] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card / Co-Main Event | |||||||
| Donald Cerrone | Melvin Guillard | ||||||
| LW #10 / 222 points | LW #25 / 152 points | ||||||
| 18 - 4 - 0 (1 NC) | 30 - 10 - 2 (1 NC) | ||||||
| Wins: 1 (T)KO, 13 Sub, 4 Dec | Wins: 19 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 9 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 17.79 | Win Points: 19.52 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 7.50:1 | 1.32:1 | 4.28:1 | Payout: | 1.50:1 | 7.50:1 | 3.17:1 |
| Max Bet: | 1.53 | 17.79 | 3.04 | Max Bet: | 19.52 | 1.53 | 4.60 |
Speaking of the Cowboy, Cerrone will be looking to continue his recovery from his loss to Nate Diaz. On paper, this matchup pits two exciting fighters, however, Guillard's biggest weakness (submission defense ... 9 of his 10 losses have been via submission) plays into Cerrone's strength. I expect this to be yet another submission loss for "The Young Assassin".
| Middleweight Match [UFC150-03] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card | |||||||
| Jake Shields | Ed Herman | ||||||
| WW #7 / 356 points | MW #27 / 147 points | ||||||
| 27 - 6 - 1 | 20 - 8 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 3 (T)KO, 10 Sub, 14 Dec | Wins: 5 (T)KO, 13 Sub, 2 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 17.01 | Win Points: 20.61 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 7.50:1 | 2.57:1 | 1.83:1 | Payout: | 3.80:1 | 1.46:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 1.53 | 6.36 | 12.04 | Max Bet: | 3.57 | 20.61 | 1.53 |
As much as it pains me to pick Shields, Herman really hasn't done much when he faces a step up in competition. Although Shields hasn't been impressive since moving over to the UFC, he should still easily dispatch of "Short Fuse".
| Middleweight Match [UFC150-04] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card | |||||||
| Yushin Okami | Buddy Roberts | ||||||
| MW #17 / 212 points | MW #70 / 78 points | ||||||
| 26 - 7 - 0 | 12 - 2 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 9 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 12 Dec, 1 Other | Wins: 4 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 3 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 14.94 | Win Points: 18.62 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.64:1 | 5.94:1 | 1.98:1 | Payout: | 2.85:1 | 2.28:1 | 3.80:1 |
| Max Bet: | 6.09 | 2.02 | 10.20 | Max Bet: | 5.40 | 7.81 | 3.57 |
Okami's scheduled opponent had to withdraw from this bout (Robert's did too), and as such, Yushin is facing quite a bit of a step down in competition. And although "Thunder" is on a two fight losing streak, this fight should be where he turns the corner and gets back on the right track.
| Featherweight Match [UFC150-05] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card | |||||||
| Justin Lawrence | Max Holloway | ||||||
| LW #173 / 47 points | FW #127 / 47 points | ||||||
| 4 - 0 - 0 | 5 - 1 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 1 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 2 Dec | Wins: 1 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 4 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 11.29 | Win Points: 11.38 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.80:1 | 3.80:1 | 1.90:1 | Payout: | 4.75:1 | 7.50:1 | 1.19:1 |
| Max Bet: | 3.57 | 3.57 | 11.11 | Max Bet: | 2.66 | 1.53 | 11.38 |
It's not often that there's a fight in the UFC where the competitors combined have just 10 fights between the two of them. Lawrence just finished competing on The Ultimate Fighter (at lightweight). Holloway has had two fights in the UFC: lost the first and won the second. With the slighter more experience in the UFC, MMA, and at featherweight, I'm giving the slight nod to Holloway.
| Featherweight Match [UFC150-06] | |||||||
| FX | |||||||
| Dennis Bermudez | Tommy Hayden | ||||||
| FW #110 / 51 points | LW #381 / 31 points | ||||||
| 8 - 3 - 0 | 8 - 1 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 3 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 4 Dec | Wins: 2 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 0 Dec, 1 Other | ||||||
| Win Points: 5.86 | Win Points: 6.56 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.53:1 | 7.50:1 | 1.90:1 | Payout: | 3.33:1 | 1.33:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 5.86 | 1.53 | 5.86 | Max Bet: | 4.29 | 6.56 | 1.53 |
I usually don't like to go with recent TUF alum, but I must admit that Bermudez surprised and impressed me in his last fight: a victory against Pablo Garza. Since I don't know much about Hayden, my pick's Dennis.
| Middleweight Match [UFC150-07] | |||||||
| FX | |||||||
| Jared Hamman | Michael Kuiper | ||||||
| MW #77 / 75 points | MW #363 / 25 points | ||||||
| 13 - 4 - 0 | 11 - 1 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 10 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 1 Dec | Wins: 6 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 1 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 6.35 | Win Points: 8.04 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.24:1 | 6.18:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 1.74:1 | 2.61:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 6.35 | 1.93 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 8.04 | 6.21 | 1.53 |
Hamman tends to either knockout his opponent or get knocked out. His UFC career hasn't been stellar so far as he's collected a 2-3 record. Kuiper has just one UFC fight: a three round decision loss. Prior to that, he had an 11 fight winning streak. However, Hamman had a nice start to his career also winning his first 9 fights. I recognize some of the fighters Jared defeated. That isn't true for Kuiper. Thus, Hamman gets my pick.
| Bantamweight Match [UFC150-08] | |||||||
| FX | |||||||
| Erik Perez | Ken Stone | ||||||
| BW #57 / 61 points | BW #63 / 55 points | ||||||
| 11 - 4 - 0 | 11 - 3 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 2 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 2 Dec | Wins: 4 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 1 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 9.31 | Win Points: 9.55 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 5.23:1 | 1.49:1 | 5.23:1 | Payout: | 2.61:1 | 1.74:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 2.36 | 9.31 | 2.36 | Max Bet: | 6.21 | 9.55 | 1.53 |
Both fighters have won the majority of their fights via submission. Perez has tapped out once while Stone has never tapped. That is enough for me to give the edge to Stone.
| Bantamweight Match [UFC150-09] | |||||||
| FX | |||||||
| Chico Camus | Dustin Pague | ||||||
| BW #72 / 50 points | BW #86 / 47 points | ||||||
| 11 - 3 - 0 | 11 - 6 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 4 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec | Wins: 3 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 0 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 8.35 | Win Points: 8.48 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.61:1 | 3.48:1 | 2.61:1 | Payout: | 3.48:1 | 1.31:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 6.21 | 4.03 | 6.21 | Max Bet: | 4.03 | 8.48 | 1.53 |
Pague has had a rough go so far in the UFC with a 1-2 record. Camus is on a three fight win streak, but all three victories were by decision. I'm not a big fan of fighters were win mostly by decision outside the UFC. Pague has won all of his fights via finish. Thus "The Disciple" gets my nod.
| Lightweight Match [UFC150-10] | |||||||
| N/A | |||||||
| Nik Lentz | Eiji Mitsuoka | ||||||
| LW #69 / 87 points | LW #150 / 53 points | ||||||
| 21 - 5 - 2 (1 NC) | 18 - 8 - 2 | ||||||
| Wins: 5 (T)KO, 10 Sub, 6 Dec | Wins: 3 (T)KO, 11 Sub, 4 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 4.37 | Win Points: 4.93 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.99:1 | 2.00:1 | 3.33:1 | Payout: | 5.70:1 | 1.55:1 | 4.28:1 |
| Max Bet: | 3.34 | 4.37 | 4.29 | Max Bet: | 2.12 | 4.93 | 3.04 |
After a strong start to his career in the octagon, Lentz has faced some hard times after getting a step up in competition. Mitsuoka seems like he's been a mid-level fighter throughout his career. Although "The Carny" is a lame (although seemingly appropriate) nickname, I'm going to have to go with Lentz.
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