My Where's George Week in Review: 08/19/12 - 08/25/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 26 hits in 7 States [CA¹⁸, IA, IL, ME, MO², NV², NY]. I now have hits in 42 States in 2012 with 1 added this week: ME. Additionally I now have hits in 449 counties with 2 new this week: Woodbury IA, Greene IL.

Of those 26 hits, 5 were the 2^nd hit on the bill and the rest (21) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 3 Years 86 Days 3 Hours 53 Minutes after I originally entered it.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
19	20	21	22	23	24	25
6	4	3	4	3	2	4

After a "scare" on Saturday in which I didn't get my first hit of the today until after 7 PM, all days of the past week had hits extending the hit streak to 8 days.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, I'm all ahead on all counts:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	20759	20853	94	4133	21720	95.6	19971	-2	+882
Bills with Hits	2430	3246	3267	21	837	3445	19.4	3090	+2	+177
Total Hits	2799	3779	3805	26	1006	4030	23.5	3599	+2	+206

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.22% [+0.93%]. It was a break-even week for this goal. The next couple weeks are likely to be rough for this one, but after that, it'll be back to smooth sailing.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	18103	18188	85	3761	18959	85.2	18173	0	+15
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6356 entries this year rather than 5000						20142	84.5	18143	+0	+45

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, 2009 took the lead this week and is unlikely to lose it anytime this year. This goal is completed:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3799	3801	2	198		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	43	1872	+21	+437
2009	1339	3780	3846	66	2507		Actual	64	2309

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", all are still way ahead of pace, although for the first time in a while, two of the FRBs I'm trying to increase (Boston and Cleveland) had their percentage of my total bills entered decrease:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	10028	48.31%	10062	48.25%	< 50.0%	49.94%	10445	+383
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	709	3.42%	712	3.41%	> 2.8%	2.85%	592	+120
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	711	3.43%	713	3.42%	> 2.4%	2.45%	509	+204
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	637	3.07%	645	3.09%	> 2.3%	2.35%	489	+156
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	578	2.78%	582	2.79%	> 2.2%	2.25%	469	+113
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	521	2.51%	534	2.56%	> 2.1%	2.15%	447	+87
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	495	2.38%	501	2.40%	> 1.7%	1.75%	365	+136

A better week than last in regards to hits, however, the week was still not as good as the "average" week this year. In both of the last two years, August had more hits than July, but as this August currently trails last month by 50 hits with 6 days to go, I don't foresee that trend continuing. In fact, the month needs 26 more hits just to tie February to avoid being the worst hit month so far this year.

My Where's George Week in Review: 08/12/12 - 08/18/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 17 hits in 5 States [CA¹², CO, NC, NV², OH]. I still have hits in 41 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 447 counties with none new this week.

Of those 17 hits, 2 were the 2^nd hit on the bill and the rest (15) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 1 Year 176 Days 19 Hours 16 Minutes after I originally entered it.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
12	13	14	15	16	17	18
3	5	4	2	1	0	2

And the hit streak goes down... 54 days isn't shabby: it's tied for my fourth best hit streak all time. My new streak started on Saturday, and stands tall at one day.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, this was one of the few weeks this year were bills with hits and total hits were below the predicted pace:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	20595	20759	164	4039	21720	95.6	19876	+68	+883
Bills with Hits	2430	3231	3246	15	816	3445	19.4	3071	-4	+175
Total Hits	2799	3762	3779	17	980	4030	23.5	3576	-7	+203

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.21% [+0.92%]. Once again I am creating a lead towards this goal:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	17947	18103	156	3676	18959	148.6	18088	+7	+15
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6400 entries this year rather than 5000						20181	147.4	18058	+9	+45

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, series 2009 now trails by just 19 and should be in the lead after this week:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3792	3799	7	196		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	74	1830	+37	+415
2009	1339	3662	3780	118	2441		Actual	111	2245

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", there is still nothing new to report as all are well ahead:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	9967	48.40%	10028	48.31%	< 50.0%	49.94%	10401	+373
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	700	3.40%	709	3.42%	> 2.8%	2.85%	589	+120
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	702	3.41%	711	3.43%	> 2.4%	2.45%	506	+205
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	620	3.01%	637	3.07%	> 2.3%	2.35%	486	+151
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	568	2.76%	578	2.78%	> 2.2%	2.25%	467	+111
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	507	2.46%	521	2.51%	> 2.1%	2.15%	445	+76
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	488	2.37%	495	2.38%	> 1.7%	1.75%	364	+131

It was a bad week for hits, and after a less than stellar week last week, it's looking like August may be a disappointing month. Here's hoping the final third of the month is a turn around.

My Where's George Week in Review: 08/05/12 - 08/11/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 26 hits in 4 States [AZ, CA²⁰, NV⁴, TX]. I still have hits in 41 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 447 counties with 2 new this week: Inyo CA, Howard TX.

Of those 26 hits, 4 were the 2^nd hit on the bill and the rest (22) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 3 Years 351 Days 1 Hour 42 Minutes after I originally entered it. That bill is now my second longest active.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
05	06	07	08	09	10	11
3	4	4	2	4	2	7

Another seven days of hits extends the hit streak to 49 days: my fifth longest hit streak. Five more days and this streak will tie for my fourth longest.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, I continue to add more to my lead in all categories:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	20483	20595	112	3875	21720	95.6	19780	+16	+815
Bills with Hits	2430	3209	3231	22	801	3445	19.4	3051	+3	+180
Total Hits	2799	3736	3762	26	963	4030	23.5	3552	+2	+210

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.14% [+0.85%]. I'm now back ahead for the pace needed if I end up with just 5000 entries this year.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	17836	17947	111	3520	18959	101.5	17939	+9	+8
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6332 entries this year rather than 5000						20121	100.7	17912	+10	+35

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, 2009 now trails by just 130 entries and could take the lead in less than two weeks:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3790	3792	2	189		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	51	1755	+34	+379
2009	1339	3575	3662	87	2323		Actual	85	2134

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", all are still way ahead. I'm approaching the end of bill insertions, and it'll be interesting to see how things change once I get past that point:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	9918	48.42%	9967	48.40%	< 50.0%	49.94%	10325	+358
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	695	3.39%	700	3.40%	> 2.8%	2.85%	584	+116
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	697	3.40%	702	3.41%	> 2.4%	2.45%	502	+200
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	610	2.98%	620	3.01%	> 2.3%	2.35%	482	+138
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	563	2.75%	568	2.76%	> 2.2%	2.25%	464	+104
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	495	2.42%	507	2.46%	> 2.1%	2.15%	441	+66
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	483	2.36%	488	2.37%	> 1.7%	1.75%	361	+127

It was a below average week for hits, and if it wasn't for the 7 hits on Saturday, this week could have potentially been the worst for the year. Hopefully the momentum from Saturday carries over to the coming week.

My UFC 150 Fight Picks

Lightweight Match [UFC150-01]
PPV / Main Card / Main Event / Championship
Ben Henderson				Frankie Edgar
LW #1 / 585 points				LW #2 / 517 points
16 - 2 - 0				14 - 2 - 1
Wins: 2 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 6 Dec				Wins: 3 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 8 Dec
Win Points: 23.58				Win Points: 24.32
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	7.50:1	1.90:1	2.53:1	Payout:	4.43:1	4.43:1	1.66:1
Max Bet:	1.53	11.11	6.53	Max Bet:	2.91	2.91	15.15

My Pick: Ben Henderson

This fight could be one of the better and closer title fights of the year. Neither fighter comes into this fight as an overwhelming favorite. I'm picking Henderson more so as a fan, although I did pick Henderson in the last fight. I think Benson will use his size to his advantage, and other than point-fighting, I don't see how Edgar wins this one. In the last fight, Frankie failed to do much damage with any of his punches. While everyone talks about how great Frankie is in rematches, Henderson put up a much more impressive performance the second time around against Cerrone.

Lightweight Match [UFC150-02]
PPV / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Donald Cerrone				Melvin Guillard
LW #10 / 222 points				LW #25 / 152 points
18 - 4 - 0 (1 NC)				30 - 10 - 2 (1 NC)
Wins: 1 (T)KO, 13 Sub, 4 Dec				Wins: 19 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 9 Dec
Win Points: 17.79				Win Points: 19.52
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	7.50:1	1.32:1	4.28:1	Payout:	1.50:1	7.50:1	3.17:1
Max Bet:	1.53	17.79	3.04	Max Bet:	19.52	1.53	4.60

My Pick: Donald Cerrone

Speaking of the Cowboy, Cerrone will be looking to continue his recovery from his loss to Nate Diaz. On paper, this matchup pits two exciting fighters, however, Guillard's biggest weakness (submission defense ... 9 of his 10 losses have been via submission) plays into Cerrone's strength. I expect this to be yet another submission loss for "The Young Assassin".

Middleweight Match [UFC150-03]
PPV / Main Card
Jake Shields				Ed Herman
WW #7 / 356 points				MW #27 / 147 points
27 - 6 - 1				20 - 8 - 0
Wins: 3 (T)KO, 10 Sub, 14 Dec				Wins: 5 (T)KO, 13 Sub, 2 Dec
Win Points: 17.01				Win Points: 20.61
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	7.50:1	2.57:1	1.83:1	Payout:	3.80:1	1.46:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	1.53	6.36	12.04	Max Bet:	3.57	20.61	1.53

My Pick: Jake Shields

As much as it pains me to pick Shields, Herman really hasn't done much when he faces a step up in competition. Although Shields hasn't been impressive since moving over to the UFC, he should still easily dispatch of "Short Fuse".

Middleweight Match [UFC150-04]
PPV / Main Card
Yushin Okami				Buddy Roberts
MW #17 / 212 points				MW #70 / 78 points
26 - 7 - 0				12 - 2 - 0
Wins: 9 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 12 Dec, 1 Other				Wins: 4 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 3 Dec
Win Points: 14.94				Win Points: 18.62
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.64:1	5.94:1	1.98:1	Payout:	2.85:1	2.28:1	3.80:1
Max Bet:	6.09	2.02	10.20	Max Bet:	5.40	7.81	3.57

My Pick: Yushin Okami

Okami's scheduled opponent had to withdraw from this bout (Robert's did too), and as such, Yushin is facing quite a bit of a step down in competition. And although "Thunder" is on a two fight losing streak, this fight should be where he turns the corner and gets back on the right track.

Featherweight Match [UFC150-05]
PPV / Main Card
Justin Lawrence				Max Holloway
LW #173 / 47 points				FW #127 / 47 points
4 - 0 - 0				5 - 1 - 0
Wins: 1 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 2 Dec				Wins: 1 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 4 Dec
Win Points: 11.29				Win Points: 11.38
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	3.80:1	3.80:1	1.90:1	Payout:	4.75:1	7.50:1	1.19:1
Max Bet:	3.57	3.57	11.11	Max Bet:	2.66	1.53	11.38

My Pick: Max Holloway

It's not often that there's a fight in the UFC where the competitors combined have just 10 fights between the two of them. Lawrence just finished competing on The Ultimate Fighter (at lightweight). Holloway has had two fights in the UFC: lost the first and won the second. With the slighter more experience in the UFC, MMA, and at featherweight, I'm giving the slight nod to Holloway.

Featherweight Match [UFC150-06]
FX
Dennis Bermudez				Tommy Hayden
FW #110 / 51 points				LW #381 / 31 points
8 - 3 - 0				8 - 1 - 0
Wins: 3 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 4 Dec				Wins: 2 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 0 Dec, 1 Other
Win Points: 5.86				Win Points: 6.56
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.53:1	7.50:1	1.90:1	Payout:	3.33:1	1.33:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	5.86	1.53	5.86	Max Bet:	4.29	6.56	1.53

My Pick: Dennis Bermudez

I usually don't like to go with recent TUF alum, but I must admit that Bermudez surprised and impressed me in his last fight: a victory against Pablo Garza. Since I don't know much about Hayden, my pick's Dennis.

Middleweight Match [UFC150-07]
FX
Jared Hamman				Michael Kuiper
MW #77 / 75 points				MW #363 / 25 points
13 - 4 - 0				11 - 1 - 0
Wins: 10 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 1 Dec				Wins: 6 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 6.35				Win Points: 8.04
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.24:1	6.18:1	7.50:1	Payout:	1.74:1	2.61:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	6.35	1.93	1.53	Max Bet:	8.04	6.21	1.53

My Pick: Jared Hamman

Hamman tends to either knockout his opponent or get knocked out. His UFC career hasn't been stellar so far as he's collected a 2-3 record. Kuiper has just one UFC fight: a three round decision loss. Prior to that, he had an 11 fight winning streak. However, Hamman had a nice start to his career also winning his first 9 fights. I recognize some of the fighters Jared defeated. That isn't true for Kuiper. Thus, Hamman gets my pick.

Bantamweight Match [UFC150-08]
FX
Erik Perez				Ken Stone
BW #57 / 61 points				BW #63 / 55 points
11 - 4 - 0				11 - 3 - 0
Wins: 2 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 2 Dec				Wins: 4 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 9.31				Win Points: 9.55
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	5.23:1	1.49:1	5.23:1	Payout:	2.61:1	1.74:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	2.36	9.31	2.36	Max Bet:	6.21	9.55	1.53

My Pick: Ken Stone

Both fighters have won the majority of their fights via submission. Perez has tapped out once while Stone has never tapped. That is enough for me to give the edge to Stone.

Bantamweight Match [UFC150-09]
FX
Chico Camus				Dustin Pague
BW #72 / 50 points				BW #86 / 47 points
11 - 3 - 0				11 - 6 - 0
Wins: 4 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec				Wins: 3 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 0 Dec
Win Points: 8.35				Win Points: 8.48
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.61:1	3.48:1	2.61:1	Payout:	3.48:1	1.31:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	6.21	4.03	6.21	Max Bet:	4.03	8.48	1.53

My Pick: Dustin Pague

Pague has had a rough go so far in the UFC with a 1-2 record. Camus is on a three fight win streak, but all three victories were by decision. I'm not a big fan of fighters were win mostly by decision outside the UFC. Pague has won all of his fights via finish. Thus "The Disciple" gets my nod.

Lightweight Match [UFC150-10]
N/A
Nik Lentz				Eiji Mitsuoka
LW #69 / 87 points				LW #150 / 53 points
21 - 5 - 2 (1 NC)				18 - 8 - 2
Wins: 5 (T)KO, 10 Sub, 6 Dec				Wins: 3 (T)KO, 11 Sub, 4 Dec
Win Points: 4.37				Win Points: 4.93
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	3.99:1	2.00:1	3.33:1	Payout:	5.70:1	1.55:1	4.28:1
Max Bet:	3.34	4.37	4.29	Max Bet:	2.12	4.93	3.04

My Pick: Nik Lentz

After a strong start to his career in the octagon, Lentz has faced some hard times after getting a step up in competition. Mitsuoka seems like he's been a mid-level fighter throughout his career. Although "The Carny" is a lame (although seemingly appropriate) nickname, I'm going to have to go with Lentz.

My Where's George Week in Review: 07/29/12 - 08/04/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 27 hits in 11 States [CA¹⁶, HI, IA, MT, NM, NY, OR², SC, TX, WA, WI]. I still have hits in 41 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 445 counties with 5 new this week: Black Hawk IA, Lewis and Clark MT, Colfax NM, Steuben NY, Ozaukee WI.

Of those 27 hits, 5 were the 2^nd hit on the bill and the rest (22) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 2 Years 347 Days 3 Hours 26 Minutes after I originally entered it.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
29	30	31	01	02	03	04
2	5	2	7	2	5	4

And the hit streak marches on! Another 7 days added to it brings my current hit streak to 42 days.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, I'm still well ahead for all categories and continue to add to my lead:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	20359	20483	124	3763	21720	95.6	19684	+28	+799
Bills with Hits	2430	3187	3209	22	779	3445	19.4	3032	+3	+177
Total Hits	2799	3709	3736	27	937	4030	23.5	3529	+3	+207

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.08% [+0.79%]. I'm a touch behind where I need to be, but considering that I'm likely to enter well more than 5000 bills this year, I'm probably in good shape:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	17725	17836	111	3409	18959	112.4	17838	-1	-2
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6347 entries this year rather than 5000						20135	111.5	17811	-1	+25

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, with just 215 bills separating the two, 2009 should catch 2003A this month:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3786	3790	4	187		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	56	1705	+22	+344
2009	1339	3493	3575	82	2236		Actual	78	2049

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", all are currently at or beyond the percentage needed and continue to increase their lead:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	9871	48.48%	9918	48.42%	< 50.0%	49.94%	10274	+356
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	687	3.37%	695	3.39%	> 2.8%	2.85%	581	+114
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	691	3.39%	697	3.40%	> 2.4%	2.45%	499	+198
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	601	2.95%	610	2.98%	> 2.3%	2.35%	479	+131
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	555	2.73%	563	2.75%	> 2.2%	2.25%	461	+102
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	486	2.39%	495	2.42%	> 2.1%	2.15%	439	+56
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	474	2.33%	483	2.36%	> 1.7%	1.75%	358	+125

While not a great week for hits, the hits were spread across 11 States which has to be near the max for a week and makes this week seem more successful. Here's hoping that the spread continues next week but comes along with more hits.

My UFC on FOX 4 Picks

Light Heavyweight Match [FOX4-01]
FOX / Main Card / Main Event / #1 Contender Match
Mauricio Rua				Brandon Vera
LHW #4 / 562 points				LHW #29 / 120 points
20 - 6 - 0				12 - 5 - 0 (1 NC)
Wins: 17 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 2 Dec				Wins: 7 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 4 Dec
Win Points: 17.62				Win Points: 23.68
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.12:1	7.50:1	7.50:1	Payout:	1.63:1	7.50:1	2.85:1
Max Bet:	17.62	1.53	1.53	Max Bet:	15.87	1.53	5.40

My Pick: Mauricio Rua

I was tempted to pick Rua by (T)KO for the max points, but it'd be a bummer to lose over 17 points in an attempt to win an additional 2. I have little doubt that Shogun wins this, and even if he doesn't, I can't see a situation where someone would pick Vera.

Light Heavyweight Match [FOX4-02]
FOX / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Lyoto Machida				Ryan Bader
LHW #5 / 479 points				LHW #6 / 450 points
17 - 3 - 0				14 - 2 - 0
Wins: 6 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 9 Dec				Wins: 6 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 5 Dec
Win Points: 18.76				Win Points: 19.05
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.69:1	7.50:1	1.79:1	Payout:	2.22:1	4.43:1	2.66:1
Max Bet:	5.91	1.53	12.65	Max Bet:	8.19	2.91	6.02

My Pick: Lyoto Machida

Machida has lost 3 of his last 4 (arguably 4 of his last 5 although the Rampage loss could also be argued). Bader is coming off of the biggest win of his career although Quienton wasn't quite the usual beast. Regardless, I see Lyoto taking this one as he'll be too elusive for Bader and use his experience to take the victory.

Lightweight Match [FOX4-03]
FOX / Main Card
Joe Lauzon				Jamie Varner
LW #29 / 140 points				LW #32 / 137 points
21 - 7 - 0				20 - 6 - 1 (2 NC)
Wins: 4 (T)KO, 17 Sub, 0 Dec				Wins: 7 (T)KO, 11 Sub, 2 Dec
Win Points: 15.60				Win Points: 15.68
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	4.99:1	1.17:1	7.50:1	Payout:	2.71:1	1.73:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	2.50	15.60	1.53	Max Bet:	5.84	13.69	1.53

My Pick: Jamie Varner

I do not like J-Lau. Varner is not a favorite of mine either, but it was pretty electric watching him destroy Barboza at UFC 146 (I was there). Neither really has any true "elite" wins. I think Varner is still hungry to redeem himself after his exile from Zuffa, and Lauzon will be his second victim.

Welterweight Match [FOX4-04]
FOX / Main Card
DaMarques Johnson				Mike Swick
WW #102 / 69 points				NR / 17 points
15 - 10 - 0				14 - 4 - 0
Wins: 6 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 2 Dec				Wins: 7 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec
Win Points: 9.62				Win Points: 12.69
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.38:1	2.04:1	7.13:1	Payout:	1.90:1	4.43:1	3.33:1
Max Bet:	7.24	9.61	1.63	Max Bet:	11.11	2.91	4.29

My Pick: Mike Swick

It's been almost two and a half years since we've seen Mike "Quick" Swick. He was on a two fight losing streak at the time with the first of those a loss to Dan Hardy that cost Swick a title shot. Johnson has been less than impressive in his UFC career (I wonder why he is still around ...). This match seems like it was put together to give Swick a tune-up/rust-remover. Swick's career is in big trouble if he doesn't win this one.

Featherweight Match [FOX4-05]
Fuel
Nam Phan				Cole Miller
FW #88 / 58 points				FW #90 / 58 points
17 - 10 - 0				18 - 6 - 0
Wins: 7 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 5 Dec				Wins: 3 (T)KO, 13 Sub, 2 Dec
Win Points: 5.96				Win Points: 5.96
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.31:1	3.23:1	3.23:1	Payout:	5.70:1	1.32:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	5.96	4.48	4.48	Max Bet:	2.12	5.96	1.53

My Pick: Cole Miller via Decision [1.53 Point Wager]

My guess is that Nam Phan remains with the UFC solely due to his exciting duo of fights with Leonard Garcia. He has won a mere 5 of his last 13 fights. Cole's first trip down to 145 didn't go in his favor, but he was somewhat successful as a lightweight before deciding to drop down. I think Miller easily outclasses Phan here. Since Miller usually wins by submission and Phan has yet to be submitted, I think it's worth the 1.5 wager on a decision.

Light Heavyweight Match [FOX4-06]
Fuel
Phil Davis				Wagner Prado
LHW #13 / 214 points				LHW #178 / 27 points
9 - 1 - 0				8 - 0 - 0
Wins: 2 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec				Wins: 7 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 7.33				Win Points: 10.30
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	4.28:1	2.85:1	2.14:1	Payout:	1.09:1	7.50:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	3.04	5.40	7.33	Max Bet:	10.30	1.53	1.53

My Pick: Phil Davis

After headlining the second UFC on FOX card, Mr. Wonderful somehow gets relegated to the prelims for this fight and gets the honor of welcoming a newcomer to the octogon. Prado has knocked out 7 of his 8 opponents, and six of those came in the first round. Without knowing much about Prado or the quality of his competition, I'm going to have to go with the fighter I know.

Featherweight Match [FOX4-07]
Fuel
Rani Yahya				Josh Grispi
FW #38 / 93 points				FW #104 / 52 points
16 - 7 - 0				14 - 3 - 0
Wins: 0 (T)KO, 14 Sub, 2 Dec				Wins: 6 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 6.82				Win Points: 7.84
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	7.50:1	1.09:1	7.50:1	Payout:	2.22:1	1.90:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	1.53	6.82	1.53	Max Bet:	7.84	7.84	1.53

My Pick: Rani Yahya

Yahya has lost 3 of his last 4, but all of those opponents were quality. Grispi lost his last 2 (his only 2 in the UFC). Rani has more experience and against better competition, and with that, I will pick him over "The Fluke".

Heavyweight Match [FOX4-08]
Fuel
Philip De Fries				Oli Thompson
HW #66 / 48 points				HW #217 / 21 points
8 - 1 - 0 (1 NC)				9 - 3 - 0
Wins: 0 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 1 Dec				Wins: 3 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 4.97				Win Points: 6.00
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	7.50:1	1.09:1	7.50:1	Payout:	2.85:1	1.71:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	1.53	4.97	1.53	Max Bet:	5.40	6.00	1.53

My Pick: Philip De Fries

Both fighters are coming off of a loss, but for De Fries, it's the only loss of his career. Both guys are still largely an unknown, as such, I'll go with the fighter with the better record and ranking.

Featherweight Match [FOX4-09]
Fuel
Manny Gamburyan				Michihiro Omigawa
FW #20 / 127 points				FW #39 / 89 points
11 - 7 - 0				13 - 11 - 1
Wins: 2 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 3 Dec				Wins: 4 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 7 Dec
Win Points: 9.44				Win Points: 10.30
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	5.23:1	1.74:1	3.48:1	Payout:	3.09:1	6.18:1	1.76:1
Max Bet:	2.36	9.44	4.03	Max Bet:	4.78	1.93	10.30

My Pick: Manny Gamburyan

What seems to be a re-occurring theme at the bottom of the card, both fighters are currently in a bit of a slump. I'm not a fan of Gamburyan, but Omigawa seems to be past his prime, and The Anvil will probably help send me another step towards retirement.

Bantamweight Match [FOX4-10]
Fuel
Ulysses Gomez				John Moraga
BW #70 / 51 points				BW #204 / 27 points
9 - 2 - 0				10 - 1 - 0
Wins: 0 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 2 Dec				Wins: 1 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 4 Dec
Win Points: 4.94				Win Points: 5.74
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	7.50:1	1.22:1	4.28:1	Payout:	7.50:1	1.90:1	2.38:1
Max Bet:	1.53	4.94	3.04	Max Bet:	1.53	5.74	5.74

My Pick: John Moraga

Both are unknown to me and new to the UFC. Both have only lost via decision and scored their highest amount of victories via submission. Moraga's decision loss was to John Dodson while Gomez's two were to names I didn't recognize. Thus I'll go with John.