My UFC on FX 2 Picks

Welterweight Match [FX2-01]
FX / Main Card / Main Event
Martin Kampmann				Thiago Alves
WW #11 / 249 points				WW #20 / 206 points
18 - 5 - 0				19 - 8 - 0
Wins: 7 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 4 Dec, 1 Other				Wins: 11 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 6 Dec
Win Points: 15.84				Win Points: 16.61
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.31:1	2.69:1	4.04:1	Payout:	1.64:1	7.50:1	3.01:1
Max Bet:	7.63	5.91	3.28	Max Bet:	15.62	1.53	4.97

My Pick: Martin Kampmann

Alves is known for being a knockout artist, yet he hasn't KO'd an opponent since June of 2008. Both Alves and Kampmann have checkered records over the past few years, but Kampmann's victims are higher rated and better known than Alves. Kampmann will added another name to that list on Friday.

Flyweight Match [FX2-02]
FX / Main Card / #1 Contender Match
Joseph Benavidez				Yasuhiro Urushitani
BW #3 / 235 points				FLW #3 / 68 points
15 - 2 - 0				19 - 4 - 6
Wins: 3 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 4 Dec				Wins: 5 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 14 Dec, 0 Other
Win Points: 16.16				Win Points: 21.02
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	4.75:1	1.78:1	3.56:1	Payout:	3.61:1	7.50:1	1.29:1
Max Bet:	2.66	12.82	3.90	Max Bet:	3.83	1.53	21.02

My Pick: Joseph Benavidez

The UFC flyweight tournament was really well put together. The UFC got two of the best flyweights and matched them up against small fighters that were successful in the UFC's bantanweight division. If the UFC fighters win, the victories give them instant credibility in the division. Both ways, the title will be viewed as the premier flyweight title. Benavidez was a serious challenger to the 135 belt and is widely considered the favorite to win the tournament. I'll jump onto the bandwagon.

Flyweight Match [FX2-03]
FX / Main Card / #1 Contender Match
Demetrious Johnson				Ian McCall
BW #8 / 126 points				FLW #1 / 78 points
14 - 2 - 0				11 - 2 - 0
Wins: 3 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 5 Dec				Wins: 4 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec
Win Points: 16.23				Win Points: 18.39
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	4.43:1	2.22:1	2.66:1	Payout:	2.61:1	3.48:1	2.61:1
Max Bet:	2.91	8.19	6.02	Max Bet:	6.21	4.03	6.21

My Pick: Demetrious Johnson

Ian "Uncle Creepy" McCall weirds me out. "Mighty Mouse"'s experience against the elite in the 135 division should more than prepare him to take out the man currently considered the top flyweight.

Middleweight Match [FX2-04]
FX / Main Card
Constantinos Philippou				Court McGee
MW #29 / 135 points				MW #48 / 109 points
9 - 2 - 0 (1 NC)				14 - 1 - 0
Wins: 5 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 3 Dec				Wins: 3 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 4 Dec
Win Points: 12.69				Win Points: 13.38
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.71:1	7.50:1	2.85:1	Payout:	4.43:1	1.90:1	3.33:1
Max Bet:	12.69	1.53	5.40	Max Bet:	2.91	11.11	4.29

My Pick: Court McGee

Court's only loss has been to Jeremy Horn, and although he doesn't have any big name wins, he's riding pretty high since his TUF championship and could be the best TUF champion in the past few seasons. Phillippou should serve nicely as a stepping stone to help McGee continue working his way up.

Light Heavyweight Match [FX2-05]
Fuel
Aaron Rosa				James Te Huna
LHW #43 / 89 points				LHW #61 / 67 points
17 - 4 - 0				13 - 5 - 0
Wins: 7 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 7 Dec				Wins: 9 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 7.73				Win Points: 8.29
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.31:1	5.38:1	2.31:1	Payout:	1.37:1	4.12:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	7.63	2.28	7.63	Max Bet:	8.29	3.20	1.53

My Pick: James Te Huna

Te Huna has only lost one of his last eight fights, and that loss came to Gustafsson (a light heavyweight on his way up). This fight will be Rosa's second at light heavy, and his first was a win against less than impressive competition. Additionally Te Huna most often wins by knockout, and Rosa's chin is a little suspect.

Light Heavyweight Match [FX2-06]
Fuel
Anthony Perosh				Nick Penner
LHW #45 / 87 points				LHW #68 / 60 points
12 - 6 - 0				11 - 1 - 0
Wins: 3 (T)KO, 9 Sub, 0 Dec				Wins: 4 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 2 Dec
Win Points: 7.41				Win Points: 8.12
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	3.80:1	1.27:1	7.50:1	Payout:	2.61:1	2.09:1	5.23:1
Max Bet:	3.57	7.41	1.53	Max Bet:	6.21	8.12	2.36

My Pick: Nick Penner

Perosh has always seemed like a bit of a scrub to me. I don't really know much about Nick Penner, but he's on an eight fight win, so I'll pick him to continue that streak.

Featherweight Match [FX2-07]
Fuel
Cole Miller				Steven Siler
LW #58 / 93 points				FW #62 / 64 points
18 - 5 - 0				19 - 9 - 0
Wins: 3 (T)KO, 13 Sub, 2 Dec				Wins: 2 (T)KO, 12 Sub, 5 Dec
Win Points: 7.12				Win Points: 7.86
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	5.70:1	1.32:1	7.50:1	Payout:	7.50:1	1.50:1	3.61:1
Max Bet:	2.12	7.12	1.53	Max Bet:	1.53	7.86	3.83

My Pick: Cole Miller

Cole Miller beat some semi-descent fighters at lightweight that are now fighting at featherweight. This will be his first fight at featherweight. Siler has won 14 of his last 16 only losing to Cole Escovedo and Chad Mendes. However, he really doesn't have any impressive wins in the list. I think Cole will find success in his fetherweight debut.

Middleweight Match [FX2-08]
Fuel
Andrew Craig				Kyle Noke
MW #43 / 112 points				MW #83 / 77 points
6 - 0 - 0				19 - 5 - 1
Wins: 2 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 3 Dec				Wins: 6 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 5 Dec
Win Points: 7.11				Win Points: 7.79
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.85:1	5.70:1	1.90:1	Payout:	3.01:1	2.26:1	3.61:1
Max Bet:	5.40	2.12	7.11	Max Bet:	4.97	7.79	3.83

My Pick: Andrew Craig

Craig is an upcoming prospect taking on the veteran Noke. I think this match is just a stepping stone for Craig as he moves onto bigger and better things.

Welterweight Match [FX2-09]
Fuel
Jack Hecht				T.J. Waldbuger
WW #47 / 105 points				WW #77 / 80 points
11 - 2 - 0				14 - 6 - 0
Wins: 3 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 3 Dec				Wins: 1 (T)KO, 11 Sub, 2 Dec
Win Points: 7.16				Win Points: 7.66
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	3.48:1	2.09:1	3.48:1	Payout:	7.50:1	1.21:1	6.65:1
Max Bet:	4.03	7.16	4.03	Max Bet:	1.53	7.66	1.76

My Pick: T.J. Waldbuger

I recognize more the names in Waldbuger's fight history than Hecht's, and although many of those are losses, I think the quality of competition difference gives Waldbuger the edge.

Featherweight Match [FX2-10]
Fuel
Daniel Pineda				Mackens Semerzier
FW #34 / 89 points				FW #63 / 63 points
16 - 7 - 0				6 - 3 - 0 (1 NC)
Wins: 6 (T)KO, 10 Sub, 0 Dec				Wins: 1 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 0 Dec
Win Points: 7.99				Win Points: 8.70
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.53:1	1.52:1	7.50:1	Payout:	5.70:1	1.14:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	6.53	7.99	1.53	Max Bet:	2.12	8.70	1.53

My Pick: Mackens Semerzier

Pineda's weakness is submission defense. How does Semerzier win most of his fights? Pineda's 16 victories have all been finishes. 2 of Semerzier's 3 losses were decisions. Daniel doesn't have what it takes to finish Mackens and will likely find himself tapping out to end this.

Heavyweight Match [FX2-11]
N/A
Shawn Jordan				Oli Thompson
HW #101 / 37 points				HW #139 / 28 points
12 - 3 - 0				9 - 2 - 0
Wins: 8 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 1 Dec				Wins: 3 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 3.87				Win Points: 4.15
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.43:1	3.80:1	7.50:1	Payout:	2.85:1	1.71:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	3.87	3.57	1.53	Max Bet:	4.15	4.15	1.53

My Pick: Shawn Jordan

Jordan has a win over Lavar "Big" Johnson who looked quite impressive in his knockout victory over Joey Beltran. Since I don't have much to go on for this one, that'll be enough for me to pick him to win.