| Lightweight Match [FX1-01] | |||||||
| FX / Main Card / Main Event | |||||||
| Jim Miller | Melvin Guillard | ||||||
| LW #12 / 186 points | LW #24 / 148 points | ||||||
| 20 - 3 - 0 | 29 - 9 - 2 (1 NC) | ||||||
| Wins: 3 (T)KO, 11 Sub, 6 Dec | Wins: 19 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 8 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 15.52 | Win Points: 16.43 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 6.33:1 | 1.73:1 | 3.17:1 | Payout: | 1.45:1 | 7.50:1 | 3.44:1 |
| Max Bet: | 1.87 | 13.69 | 4.60 | Max Bet: | 16.43 | 1.53 | 4.09 |
Miller has lost only three fights and all of those by decision. He lost to Ben Henderson, Gray Maynard, and Frankie Edgar. Guillard was on a hot streak until getting caught and submitted by Joe Lauzon. Of Melvin nine losses, eight have been by submission, and submission is Miller's most frequent method of victory. Guillard will come out strong early, gas out, and get submitted by Miller.
| Welterweight Match [FX1-02] | |||||||
| FX / Main Card | |||||||
| Josh Neer | Duane Ludwig | ||||||
| WW #35 / 129 points | WW #53 / 101 points | ||||||
| 32 - 10 - 1 | 21 - 11 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 17 (T)KO, 11 Sub, 4 Dec | Wins: 10 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 5 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 12.22 | Win Points: 12.98 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.79:1 | 2.76:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 2.00:1 | 3.33:1 | 3.99:1 |
| Max Bet: | 12.22 | 5.68 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 10.00 | 4.29 | 3.34 |
Both seem to have inconsistencies in their game, and both have been in and out of the UFC previously. Looking at their past results, Neer has wins against more impressive opponents than Ludwig. As I see this match as a toss up, I'm going to use that to make my pick for Neer.
| Bantamweight Match [FX1-03] | |||||||
| FX / Main Card | |||||||
| Jared Papazian | Mike Easton | ||||||
| BW #49 / 61 points | BW #65 / 49 points | ||||||
| 14 - 6 - 0 (1 NC) | 11 - 1 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 5 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 8 Dec | Wins: 4 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 5 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 11.35 | Win Points: 11.98 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.66:1 | 7.50:1 | 1.66:1 | Payout: | 2.61:1 | 5.23:1 | 2.09:1 |
| Max Bet: | 6.02 | 1.53 | 11.35 | Max Bet: | 6.21 | 2.36 | 9.17 |
I can't say that I'm familiar with either of these fighters. Easton has one fight in the UFC (a TKO victory) which came after a two year layoff. Papazian came into this match as a late replacement. The UFC moved this match from Fuel to the main card on FX which I'm assuming to try to add to the popularity of one of the fighters. Seem Easton was in the UFC first, I'm going to guess that it's him. Also looking at their past victories, I recognize some of the guys Easton has beaten. For that reason, I pick Easton to win. I think this one's going to be a snoozer that goes the distance.
| Heavyweight Match [FX1-04] | |||||||
| FX / Main Card | |||||||
| Pat Barry | Christian Morecraft | ||||||
| HW #64 / 52 points | HW #93 / 39 points | ||||||
| 6 - 4 - 0 | 7 - 2 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 5 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 1 Dec | Wins: 3 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 0 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 10.17 | Win Points: 10.92 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.14:1 | 7.50:1 | 5.70:1 | Payout: | 2.22:1 | 1.66:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 10.17 | 1.53 | 2.12 | Max Bet: | 8.19 | 10.92 | 1.53 |
On a disappointing 1-3 run in his past four fights including the unbelievable loss to Cheick Kongo, it feels like the UFC is giving Pat Barry a break here in a fight against Morecraft that he should surely win. Barry will likely win this one by (T)KO, but the pay off is so small that it's not worth wagering.
| Middleweight Match [FX1-05] | |||||||
| Fuel | |||||||
| Jorge Rivera | Eric Schafer | ||||||
| MW #62 / 92 points | MW #152 / 49 points | ||||||
| 19 - 9 - 0 | 11 - 6 - 2 | ||||||
| Wins: 13 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 4 Dec | Wins: 2 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 1 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 5.46 | Win Points: 6.34 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.39:1 | 7.50:1 | 4.51:1 | Payout: | 5.23:1 | 1.31:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 5.46 | 1.53 | 2.84 | Max Bet: | 2.36 | 6.34 | 1.53 |
Jorge is attempting to end his two fight skid while Eric "The Red" Schafer is looking for his first UFC middleweight victory. Both lost to Michael Bisping (Rivera at middleweight and Schafer at light heavyweight). Rivera is past his prime whereas Schafer has always been a journeyman. The big question here is how far past his prime, Jorge is. I'm going to say he's far enough that he won't knock Schafer but not far enough to drop the decision.
| Lightweight Match [FX1-06] | |||||||
| Fuel | |||||||
| Kamal Shalorus | Khabib Nurmagomedov | ||||||
| LW #53 / 94 points | WW #151 / 55 points | ||||||
| 7 - 1 - 2 | 16 - 0 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 4 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 2 Dec | Wins: 6 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 4 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 5.78 | Win Points: 6.51 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.66:1 | 6.65:1 | 3.33:1 | Payout: | 2.53:1 | 2.53:1 | 3.80:1 |
| Max Bet: | 5.78 | 1.76 | 4.29 | Max Bet: | 6.51 | 6.51 | 3.57 |
I've never been a fan of Kamal "Prince of Persia" Shalorus's nickname. It dosn't roll off of the tongue well and is too long. Khabib won 7(!) fights in 2011 and finished his opponent in all of those fights. I don't recognize any of his opponents which makes it hard to say whether or not he's the real deal. I'll buy the hype for now and predict that Khabib wins his UFC debut.
| Welterweight Match [FX1-07] | |||||||
| Fuel | |||||||
| Charlie Brenneman | Daniel Roberts | ||||||
| WW #31 / 148 points | WW #65 / 87 points | ||||||
| 14 - 3 - 0 | 12 - 3 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 5 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 7 Dec | Wins: 0 (T)KO, 9 Sub, 3 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 7.96 | Win Points: 9.05 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.66:1 | 6.65:1 | 1.90:1 | Payout: | 7.50:1 | 1.27:1 | 3.80:1 |
| Max Bet: | 6.02 | 1.76 | 7.96 | Max Bet: | 1.53 | 9.05 | 3.57 |
Brenneman burst into the limelight after riding Rick Story to a decision victory before getting exposed by Anthony "Too Heavy" Johnson. Roberts has lost his last 2 and is 3-3 in the UFC after starting his career 8-0. Roberts lost his last two by decision, and I foresee this making it three as "The Spaniard" humps him for a boring lay-and-pray victory.
| Lightweight Match [FX1-08] | |||||||
| Fuel | |||||||
| Fabricio Camoes | Tommy Hayden | ||||||
| LW #56 / 91 points | FW #130 / 42 points | ||||||
| 13 - 6 - 1 | 8 - 0 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 4 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 3 Dec | Wins: 2 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 1 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 5.81 | Win Points: 6.99 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.09:1 | 2.06:1 | 4.12:1 | Payout: | 3.80:1 | 1.52:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 4.78 | 5.81 | 3.20 | Max Bet: | 3.57 | 6.99 | 1.53 |
Hayden is a late replacement moving (back?) up to 155. Camoes had a previous forgetable run in the UFC that saw him go 0-1-1. Hayden trains with Jorge Gurgel (who I can't stand), so that coupled with the late notice and moving up has me picking Camoes for the win.
| Featherweight Match [FX1-09] | |||||||
| Fuel | |||||||
| Daniel Pineda | Pat Schilling | ||||||
| FW #40 / 85 points | FW #227 / 30 points | ||||||
| 15 - 7 - 0 | 5 - 0 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 6 (T)KO, 9 Sub, 0 Dec | Wins: 1 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 0 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 5.75 | Win Points: 7.22 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.38:1 | 1.58:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 4.75:1 | 1.19:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 5.75 | 5.75 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 2.66 | 7.22 | 1.53 |
Both are newcomers to the UFC. Pineda is way more experienced, however, he frequently loses by submission which is Schilling's main mode of victory. I'm going to pick that Schilling catches him, but I'm not going to wager on the outcome because the payoff is too low.
| Bantamweight Match [FX1-10] | |||||||
| Fuel | |||||||
| Nick Denis | Joseph Sandoval | ||||||
| BW #45 / 63 points | BW #177 / 28 points | ||||||
| 10 - 2 - 0 | 6 - 1 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 9 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 0 Dec | Wins: 2 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 3 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 5.80 | Win Points: 6.98 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.06:1 | 7.50:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 2.85:1 | 5.70:1 | 1.90:1 |
| Max Bet: | 5.80 | 1.53 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 5.40 | 2.12 | 6.98 |
Denis's nickname is "The Ninja of Love". Now "Prince of Persia" doesn't seem so bad. Sandoval lost his UFC debut after starting his career 6-0. He sports a lame-ass colored mohawk. So do I go with the lame nickname or the lame mohawk? The love ninja has finished his opponents for all of his wins while Sandoval has won half of his by decision, so I'm going to go with the fighter who gets things done. There's no value in betting the TKO, so I'll just be taking Denis for the win.
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