| Light Heavyweight Match [FOX2-01] | |||||||
| Fox / Main Card / Main Event / #1 Contender Match | |||||||
| Rashad Evans | Phil Davis | ||||||
| LHW #3 / 620 points | LHW #12 / 233 points | ||||||
| 16 - 1 - 1 | 9 - 0 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 6 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 8 Dec | Wins: 2 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 18.43 | Win Points: 22.89 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.53:1 | 7.50:1 | 1.90:1 | Payout: | 4.28:1 | 2.85:1 | 2.14:1 |
| Max Bet: | 6.53 | 1.53 | 11.11 | Max Bet: | 3.04 | 5.40 | 8.77 |
Rashad finally gets another chance to "re-earn" his shot at the title. I'm not a fan and would love to see "Mr. Wonderful" knock him off. However, Evans is too good for Davis and should ride this out for a decision victory.
| Middleweight Match [FOX2-02] | |||||||
| Fox / Main Card / Co-Main Event / #1 Contender Match | |||||||
| Chael Sonnen | Michael Bisping | ||||||
| MW #2 / 468 points | MW #9 / 296 points | ||||||
| 26 - 11 - 1 | 22 - 3 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 7 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 15 Dec | Wins: 14 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 4 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 18.57 | Win Points: 20.75 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.53:1 | 6.18:1 | 1.65:1 | Payout: | 1.49:1 | 5.23:1 | 5.23:1 |
| Max Bet: | 3.95 | 1.93 | 15.38 | Max Bet: | 20.40 | 2.36 | 2.36 |
Chael's biggest hole is his submission defense. Bisping hasn't won by submission since 2005. Not to mention that "The Count" simply isn't in Sonnen's league. Before Sonnen's submission of Brian Stann, he won five straight by decision. This will be another three round hump fest.
| Middleweight Match [FOX2-03] | |||||||
| Fox / Main Card | |||||||
| Demian Maia | Chris Weidman | ||||||
| MW #9 / 282 points | MW #21 / 193 points | ||||||
| 15 - 3 - 0 | 7 - 0 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 2 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 5 Dec | Wins: 2 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 2 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 16.61 | Win Points: 18.23 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 7.13:1 | 1.78:1 | 2.85:1 | Payout: | 3.33:1 | 2.22:1 | 3.33:1 |
| Max Bet: | 1.63 | 12.82 | 5.40 | Max Bet: | 4.29 | 8.19 | 4.29 |
Weidman is a late replacement (taking Bisping's spot after Bisping moved up into Mark Munoz's spot) taking this fight on about a week's notice. That's a tough spot to be in when taking on a submission specialist like Maia. However, Maia's last six fights all went to decision and he's been less than impressive. I think Weidman is going to make the most of this opportunity and win via decision
| Lightweight Match [FOX2-04] | |||||||
| Fuel | |||||||
| Evan Dunham | Nik Lentz | ||||||
| LW #37 / 122 points | LW #45 / 107 points | ||||||
| 12 - 2 - 0 | 21 - 4 - 2 (1 NC) | ||||||
| Wins: 2 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 4 Dec | Wins: 6 (T)KO, 9 Sub, 6 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 8.62 | Win Points: 8.91 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 5.70:1 | 1.90:1 | 2.85:1 | Payout: | 3.33:1 | 2.22:1 | 3.33:1 |
| Max Bet: | 2.12 | 8.62 | 5.40 | Max Bet: | 4.29 | 8.19 | 4.29 |
Dunham was the next big thing in the lightweight division until getting screwed out of the decision in his fight against Sean Sherk and then getting knocked out by Melvin Guillard. Lentz is making a pretty quick turnaround after his decision loss to Mark Bocek. I see Dunham coming out on this one likely by playing it safe and getting the decision. It's a bad sign for this card that I can easily see the top four fights all going to decision.
| Heavyweight Match [FOX2-05] | |||||||
| Fuel | |||||||
| Mike Russow | John-Olav Einemo | ||||||
| HW #16 / 131 points | NR / 33 points | ||||||
| 14 - 1 - 0 | 6 - 2 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 4 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 2 Dec | Wins: 1 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 0 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 6.64 | Win Points: 8.76 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.33:1 | 1.66:1 | 6.65:1 | Payout: | 5.70:1 | 1.14:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 4.29 | 6.64 | 1.76 | Max Bet: | 2.12 | 8.76 | 1.53 |
Russow is on a tare winning 10 in a row not losing since early 2007. Einemo returned to MMA last year only to get knocked out by Dave Herman. Russow has won his past two by TKO, and I think he'll make it three.
| Featherweight Match [FOX2-07] | |||||||
| Fuel | |||||||
| George Roop | Cub Swanson | ||||||
| FW #32 / 95 points | FW #66 / 62 points | ||||||
| 12 - 8 - 1 | 15 - 5 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 3 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 5 Dec | Wins: 4 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 4 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 7.94 | Win Points: 8.81 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.80:1 | 2.85:1 | 2.28:1 | Payout: | 3.56:1 | 2.04:1 | 3.56:1 |
| Max Bet: | 3.57 | 5.40 | 7.81 | Max Bet: | 3.90 | 8.81 | 3.90 |
Roop is a gangly looking featherweight (really tall and beanpole-like). Swanson hasn't impressed me for a few years. Roop did better than expected in his last fight (against Hatsu Hioki). I really don't have a good feel on how Roop will win, so I'll pass on making a result wager.
| Featherweight Match [FOX2-08] | |||||||
| Fuel | |||||||
| Eric Wisely | Charles Oliveira | ||||||
| FW #33 / 93 points | LW #102 / 67 points | ||||||
| 19 - 6 - 0 | 14 - 2 - 0 (1 NC) | ||||||
| Wins: 7 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec, 5 Other | Wins: 6 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 1 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 7.21 | Win Points: 7.75 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.90:1 | 4.43:1 | 3.33:1 | Payout: | 2.22:1 | 1.90:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 7.21 | 2.91 | 4.29 | Max Bet: | 7.75 | 7.75 | 1.53 |
Oliveira started his career 12-0 before losing to Jim Miller, having a fight end in a No Contest for landing an illegal knee, and then losing to Donald Cerrone. He doesn't have any really impressive wins, but his losses were to good lightweights. This will be his first fight at featherweight. This will be Wisely's first appearance in the UFC. I'm not really seeing anything that impressive in his history either. All of Wisely's losses have been decisions while Oliveira tends to finish. I'll pick Oliveira but pass on making a call on the outcome.
| Lightweight Match [FOX2-09] | |||||||
| Fuel | |||||||
| Shane Roller | Michael Johnson | ||||||
| LW #55 / 93 points | LW #241 / 39 points | ||||||
| 10 - 5 - 0 | 9 - 6 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 3 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 1 Dec | Wins: 5 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 2 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 5.21 | Win Points: 6.35 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.17:1 | 1.58:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 1.71:1 | 4.28:1 | 4.28:1 |
| Max Bet: | 4.60 | 5.21 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 6.35 | 3.04 | 3.04 |
Johnson was suppose to be fighting fellow TUF alum Cody McKenzie but instead is getting the experienced Shane Roller. Roller has some strong wins on his record and should easily take care of Johnson. Johnson has a weakness for getting submitted, and that's likely how this one is going to end.
| Heavyweight Match [FOX2-10] | |||||||
| Fuel | |||||||
| Joey Beltran | Lavar Johnson | ||||||
| HW #40 / 75 points | HW #149 / 28 points | ||||||
| 13 - 6 - 0 | 15 - 5 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 11 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 1 Dec | Wins: 13 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 0 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 6.14 | Win Points: 7.63 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.12:1 | 7.50:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 1.10:1 | 7.13:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 6.14 | 1.53 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 7.63 | 1.63 | 1.53 |
Both of these guys primarily win by (T)KO but only have 1 (T)KO loss between them (Johnson loss his first fight by (T)KO: Corner Stoppage). Beltran tends to lose by decision while Johnson tends to get submitted. Beltran has the cooler nickname ("The Mexicutioner") and has fought (although lost) to better competition. I think Johnson will gas out and Beltran will catch him, but there's no value in making that wager.
| Middleweight Match [FOX2-11] | |||||||
| N/A | |||||||
| Chris Camozi | Dustin Jacoby | ||||||
| MW #119 / 57 points | MW #169 / 44 points | ||||||
| 15 - 5 - 0 | 6 - 1 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 4 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 6 Dec | Wins: 5 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 0 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 3.36 | Win Points: 3.58 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.56:1 | 2.85:1 | 2.38:1 | Payout: | 1.14:1 | 5.70:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 3.36 | 3.36 | 3.36 | Max Bet: | 3.58 | 2.12 | 1.53 |
I saw both of these guys lose boring decisions in person at UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz. Neither made much of an impression. I foresee a boring fight that goes to a decision. The payoff is better if Jacoby wins, so I'll go with him (plus the max wager on decision).
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