My UFC 142 Picks

Updated 02-01-2012 with my new format for fight picks. Fight analysis was copied over from previous post.

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Featherweight Match [UFC142-01]
PPV / Main Card / Main Event / Championship
Jose Aldo				Chad Mendes
FW #1 / 444 points				FW #5 / 224 points
20 - 1 - 0				11 - 0 - 0
Wins: 12 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 6 Dec				Wins: 2 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 7 Dec
Win Points: 22.42				Win Points: 26.33
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.58:1	7.50:1	3.17:1	Payout:	5.23:1	5.23:1	1.49:1
Max Bet:	17.24	1.53	4.60	Max Bet:	2.36	2.36	20.40

My Pick: Jose Aldo via Decision [2.00 Point Wager]

As much as I'd like to see Chad Mendes win this one, I don't think he has the power to keep Aldo on the mat and grind out a decision. Aldo has only finished Manny Gamburyan since knocking out Brown to take the title, so I see this being another long 5 round affair. Therefore, I'm picking Aldo to win this one by decision.

Middleweight Match [UFC142-02]
PPV / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Vitor Belfort				Anthony Johnson
MW #8 / 308 points				WW #11 / 251 points
20 - 9 - 0				10 - 3 - 0
Wins: 14 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 4 Dec				Wins: 7 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 3 Dec
Win Points: 18.87				Win Points: 20.06
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.36:1	7.50:1	4.75:1	Payout:	1.36:1	7.50:1	3.17:1
Max Bet:	18.87	1.53	2.66	Max Bet:	20.06	1.53	4.60

My Pick: Vitor Belfort

In my opinion, Johnson never reached his full potentional at welterweight and moving up to middleweight is just going to force him to face bigger opponents. Having his first MW fight against one of the UFC's better men in the division is definitely not a warm welcome to moving up. Vitor will win, likely by (T)KO, but there's not enough value to wager on the finish.

Middleweight Match [UFC142-03]
PPV / Main Card
Rousimar Palhares				Mike Massenzio
MW #15 / 233 points				MW #109 / 62 points
13 - 3 - 0				13 - 5 - 0
Wins: 1 (T)KO, 9 Sub, 3 Dec				Wins: 2 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 5 Dec
Win Points: 14.31				Win Points: 18.73
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	7.50:1	1.37:1	4.12:1	Payout:	6.18:1	2.06:1	2.47:1
Max Bet:	1.53	14.31	3.20	Max Bet:	1.93	9.43	6.80

My Pick: Rousimar Palhares

Palhares is moving up in the rankings while Massenzio is mostly a "who's that?" in my book. This doesn't feel like a PPV fight to me, and my guess is that the UFC is trying to give Palhares some more exposure in case he turns into a title contender. I think this one will end with Palhares submitting Massenzio, but again the gain from betting that result lacks enough value.

Welterweight Match [UFC142-04]
PPV / Main Card
Erick Silva				Carlo Prater
WW #43 / 111 points				LW #49 / 104 points
13 - 1 - 0				29 - 10 - 1
Wins: 3 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 3 Dec				Wins: 2 (T)KO, 16 Sub, 11 Dec
Win Points: 15.16				Win Points: 15.59
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	4.12:1	1.76:1	4.12:1	Payout:	7.50:1	1.72:1	2.50:1
Max Bet:	3.20	13.15	3.20	Max Bet:	1.53	13.88	6.66

My Pick: Erick Silva

Prater is a former welterweight moving back up after a short stint at lightweight (most likely moving up just for the UFC opportunity). Prater has a win over Carlos Condit from early in his career which earns him mad respect in my mind. However, Silva is an up and comer who hasn't lost since 2006. I expect that streak will continue.

Lightweight Match [UFC142-05]
PPV / Main Card
Edson Barboza				Terry Etim
LW #53 / 93 points				LW #156 / 52 points
9 - 0 - 0				15 - 3 - 0
Wins: 6 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 2 Dec				Wins: 2 (T)KO, 12 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 12.35				Win Points: 14.19
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.43:1	7.50:1	4.28:1	Payout:	7.13:1	1.19:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	12.35	1.53	3.04	Max Bet:	1.63	14.19	1.53

My Pick: Edson Barboza via Decision [2.00 Point Wager]

Another case of an up-and-comer (Barboza) versus a "vetern gatekeeper" (Etim). Etim will hang with Barboza for the full fight, but Barboza will do the majority of the damage and take this bout by decision.

Lightweight Match [UFC142-06]
FX / Prelim
Sam Stout				Thiago Tavares
LW #17 / 167 points				LW #68 / 83 points
17 - 6 - 1				16 - 4 - 1
Wins: 9 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 7 Dec				Wins: 2 (T)KO, 11 Sub, 3 Dec
Win Points: 10.38				Win Points: 12.23
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.79:1	7.50:1	2.31:1	Payout:	7.50:1	1.38:1	5.07:1
Max Bet:	10.38	1.53	7.63	Max Bet:	1.53	12.23	2.45

My Pick: Sam Stout via (T)KO [2.00 Point Wager]

There is something about Thiago Tavares that I just don't like. Stout has knockout power, and this pick is mostly because I want to see Tavares get KTFO.

Heavyweight Match [UFC142-07]
FX / Prelim
Gabriel Gonzaga				Edinaldo Oliveira
HW #27 / 89 points				HW #52 / 61 points
12 - 6 - 0				13 - 0 - 1 (1 NC)
Wins: 5 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 0 Dec				Wins: 8 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 3 Dec
Win Points: 10.55				Win Points: 11.57
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.28:1	1.63:1	7.50:1	Payout:	1.54:1	6.18:1	4.12:1
Max Bet:	7.81	10.55	1.53	Max Bet:	11.57	1.93	3.20

My Pick: Edinaldo Oliveira via (T)KO [2.00 Point Wager]

I was surprised to see the UFC bring Gonzaga back after he flamed out in his last go round. Other than his surprise win over Mirko Cro Cop, I can't say that he's done much to be so highly reguarded. When he loses, it tends to be by (T)KO, and that's exactly what Oliveira is going to do to him as he climbs up the UFC HW ladder.

Featherweight Match [UFC142-08]
FX / Prelim
Yuri Alcantara				Michihiro Omigawa
FW #12 / 142 points				FW #32 / 96 points
26 - 3 - 0				13 - 10 - 1
Wins: 11 (T)KO, 12 Sub, 3 Dec				Wins: 4 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 7 Dec
Win Points: 12.05				Win Points: 13.26
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.25:1	2.06:1	7.50:1	Payout:	3.09:1	6.18:1	1.76:1
Max Bet:	8.00	9.43	1.53	Max Bet:	4.78	1.93	13.15

My Pick: Yuri Alcantara via Decision [1.50 Point Wager]

This fight smells like one that's going to go to decision. Alcantara is the higher ranked fighter and has the better reward if he wins by decision, so I'm going to pick this one that way.

Welterweight Match [UFC142-09]
FX / Prelim
Mike Pyle				Ricardo Funch
WW #25 / 178 points				WW #241 / 40 points
21 - 8 - 1				8 - 2 - 0
Wins: 2 (T)KO, 16 Sub, 3 Dec				Wins: 4 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 3 Dec
Win Points: 8.25				Win Points: 11.02
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	7.50:1	1.25:1	6.65:1	Payout:	1.90:1	7.50:1	2.53:1
Max Bet:	1.53	8.25	1.76	Max Bet:	11.02	1.53	6.53

My Pick: Mike Pyle

Pyle was suppose to be fighting Paulo Thiago, and I guess Funch is the best the UFC could come up with as an injury replacement. Unless he's overlooking him, Pyle should easily win likely by submission. The result odds are good enough to make a wager.

Featherweight Match [UFC142-10]
N/A / Prelim
Antonio Carvalho				Felipe Arantes
FW #48 / 73 points				FW #175 / 35 points
13 - 4 - 0				13 - 4 - 0 (2 NC)
Wins: 6 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec				Wins: 6 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 3 Dec
Win Points: 4.77				Win Points: 5.66
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.06:1	4.12:1	3.09:1	Payout:	2.06:1	3.09:1	4.12:1
Max Bet:	4.77	3.20	4.77	Max Bet:	5.66	4.78	3.20

My Pick: Felipe Arantes via Decision [2.00 Point Wager]

Arantes has the cooler sounding nickname: "Sertanejo" vs "Pato", so he's going to be my pick. I have a feeling this one's going to be a snoozer, so I'll additional wager that it'll go to a decision