As you've likely noticed, I've abandoned this blog. I have started a new blog focused just on my posts about running which can be found at http://chrisrunssacramento.blogspot.com/.
Thursday, January 1, 2015
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
Rankings & What's Next: UFC Middleweights
Every Wednesday for the past eight weeks, I've taken the rankings from UFC.com, Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly, combined them, and used the combined rankings to determine who got the next title shot and who participated in the next #1 contender's match based on a set of rules (rules will be listed below). For the next eight weeks, I'm going to go back through all of the men's divisions (Sherdog and MMA Weekly have a pound-for-pound list for woman but not an explicit women's bantamweight list, so I'm skipping that division for now) taking a look at the fights that have occurred since my last post, how the rankings have changed, and then take a look ahead.
My previous post on the UFC Middleweights can be found here.
Here's what happened in the division in the past eight weeks:
- Lyoto Machida defeated Mark Munoz at UFC Fight Night 30.
- Francis Carmont defeated Costa Philippou at UFC 165.
- Tim Kennedy defeated Rafael Natal at UFC Fight for the Troops 3.
- Tim Boetsch defeated C.B. Dollaway at UFC 166.
- Brad Scott defeated Michael Kuiper at UFC Fight Night 30.
- Luke Barnatt defeated Andrew Craig at UFC Fight Night 30.
- Nicholas Musoke defeated Alessio Sakara at UFC Fight Night 30.
- Derek Brunson defeated Brian Houston at UFC Fight for the Troops 3.
- Lorenz Larkin defeated Chris Camozzi at UFC Fight for the Troops 3.
- Yoel Romero defeated Ronny Markes at UFC Fight for the Troops 3.
- Omari Akhmedov defeated Thiago Perpetuo at UFC Fight Night 32.
- Cezar Ferreira defeated Daniel Sarafian at UFC Fight Night 32.
The combined rankings for the division are now as such:
Combined Rankings
| UFC | Fight Matrix | Sherdog | MMA Weekly | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last Update: | 11/11/2013 | 11/10/2013 | 10/28/2013 | 10/27/2013 | |||||||||
| 1. | Chris Weidman | 1 | (0) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2. | Anderson Silva | 2 | (1) | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||||||
| 3. | Vitor Belfort | 3 | (2) | 3 | 3 | 3 | |||||||
| 4. | Ronaldo Souza | 4 | (3) | 5 | 4 | 4 | |||||||
| 5. | Michael Bisping | 5 | (4) | 6 | 5 | (6) | 5 | ||||||
| 6. | Lyoto Machida | 6 | (5) | 4 | 6 | (7) | 6 | ||||||
| 7. | Luke Rockhold | 7 | (6) | 8 | (10) | 8 | (9) | 8 | |||||
| 8. | Mark Munoz | 8 | (7) | 10 | (12) | 7 | (8) | 7 | |||||
| 9. | Francis Carmont | 9 | (8) | 7 | T9 | (OC) | |||||||
| 10. | Tim Kennedy | 9 | (11) | T9 | (OC) | 9 | (10) | ||||||
| Costa Philippou | 10 | (9) | T9 | (OC) | |||||||||
| Tim Boetsch | T9 | (OC) | |||||||||||
It's been a busy eight weeks for the middleweight division. The top five are unchanged from the last report. Of the top five, only Belfort has fought, and his fight was at light heavyweight against Dan Henderson. He won, and Dana White has said that Vitor gets the next title shot (unless something "weird" happens involving Weidman/Silva II). Machida joined the division and knocked Munoz down a couple spots by beating him in his debut. Okami was cut and thus no longer qualifies for the list. Carmont and Philippou flipped spots (more or less) after their fight.
My rules for determining who gets the next title shot and who fights to be the next #1 contender:
- The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
- The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
Matches I'd Make
Starting off with the title, the next shot at Chris Weidman would go to Vitor Belfort. Belfort has had three wins at middleweight since his last middleweight title fight and has earned another shot. As for the #1 contender, I'd pit Ronaldo Souza against Michael Bisping to see who gets the next title shot. I'd make Francis Carmont put his 11 fight winning steak on the line against Lyoto Machida in a fight that would likely determine who'd get the next crack at earning a title shot. And for the final guy coming off of a win in the top ten, I'd give Tim Kennedy a fight against Tim Boetsch and let one of the Tims work his way towards the top. As for the fighters coming off of a loss, I'd give the former UFC champion Anderson Silva a crack at the last Strikeforce middleweight champion (Luke Rockhold). Mark Munoz and Costa Philippou would be given the opportunities to redeem themselves against each other.
Matches the UFC has Made
With a bunch of recent activity, there's not a lot set up for the middleweight top ten. Silva is getting a chance to regain his title against Weidman at UFC 168 at the end of December. Machida will be welcoming Gegard Mousasi to the middleweight division at a Fight Night card in February.
Matches I'd Add to the UFC's
I could accept a case for holding Belfort for the next title shot, but I'd rather he fight a top contender in the division to earn it instead, so I'd pit Vitor against Souza for the #1 contendership. Bisping would then instead fight Carmont. Instead of the Spider, Rockhold would take on Munoz. And my match between Kennedy and Boetsch would still be on.
The case of Anderson Silva exposes a potential weakness in my rules. Should a champion who defended his belt 10 times, won a non-title match at his championship weight, and 3 fights in the division above really have to win twice to get back in the title picture? Feels like I should adopt a rule that allows for immediate rematches (although I usually don't like them) or one win to get back in for champions that kept the title for long enough (determined by fights and not time).
If Weidman can repeat his success in their first match up, the middleweight division could become quite interesting over the next few years as there will be a number of potentially interesting title fights.
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
2013 NFL Playoff Possibilities: Week 10
The following percentages were calculated by "playing out" the remaining games of the season via coinflip with one caveat: for each set of simulations, one team is picked to win out while another is picked to lose out. Each combo is used an equal number of times. Using the "win out"/"lose out" teams gives information on which teams are starting to have their playoff chances fade away (i.e. those teams that don't always make the playoffs when they win out) and which teams are locking up a spot (i.e. those teams that make the playoffs even if they lose out).
| AFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Buffalo Bills | 1.4% | 2.9% | -1.7% | -2.9% |
| Miami Dolphins | 7.4% | 19.2% | -3.4% | -5.3% |
| New England Patriots | 74.6% | 86.4% | +4.1% | +3.4% |
| New York Jets | 16.6% | 36.7% | +0.9% | +4.7% |
It was a good week to be off for the AFC East. The two teams that had games lost increasing the likelihood that the Patriots, and to a lesser extent the Jets, would win the division. New York got some added benefits as the top challengers for the final wild card spot also all lost this past weekend.
| AFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 17.9% | 24.4% | +5.9% | +9.3% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 50.0% | 60.0% | -12.8% | -10.2% |
| Cleveland Browns | 21.6% | 26.9% | +3.0% | +3.4% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 10.5% | 12.4% | +3.9% | +4.7% |
Cincinnati's lead over every team in the division was cut by one this past weekend and their odds of winning the division dropped as a result. They still take it in half of the random simulations
| AFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Houston Texans | 3.9% | 5.6% | -0.7% | -1.6% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 74.8% | 78.8% | +1.1% | -1.2% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1.2% | 1.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% |
| Tennessee Titans | 20.1% | 27.0% | -1.0% | -5.5% |
It was a bad weekend for the South as only the lowly Jaguars won. The futility aided the Colts cause as their odds of winning the division rose even though they lost. Their match up against the Titans on Thursday Night Football will either nearly lock up the division or extend the battle.
| AFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Denver Broncos | 39.0% | 93.1% | +8.7% | +9.3% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 60.2% | 98.0% | -5.0% | +1.1% |
| Oakland Raiders | 0.0% | 9.4% | -0.6% | -2.6% |
| San Diego Chargers | 0.8% | 17.5% | -3.1% | -7.3% |
Week 11's game pitting Kansas City against Denver will go a long way in determining who takes the West. Both of those teams will surely make the playoffs. The Chargers have an outside chance of giving the West a wild card sweep in the AFC.
| NFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 47.8% | 51.1% | -9.7% | -11.8% |
| New York Giants | 10.2% | 11.8% | +2.8% | +2.9% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 32.1% | 39.3% | +11.3% | +11.3% |
| Washington Redskins | 9.8% | 10.8% | -4.3% | -5.8% |
The Cowboys and Eagles are tied atop the division at 5-5, but Dallas has a much better chance of winning the division based on having a head-to-head victory over Philly along with having an undefeated division record (the Eagles are 2-2 against the East). None of the teams are out of the divisional race, but there's little chance of any of them getting a wild card.
| NFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Chicago Bears | 17.9% | 30.6% | -14.9% | -16.8% |
| Detroit Lions | 54.5% | 67.2% | +20.9% | +16.7% |
| Green Bay Packers | 26.9% | 35.5% | -6.3% | -12.6% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.7% | 1.7% | +0.3% | +0.3% |
With their win this past weekend against Chicago, Detroit now has a commanding lead in the North although the Bears and Packers are only a game behind. Health-wise, the Lions are in the best shape of the three. Chicago and Green Bay are both currently on the outside of the wild card race also.
| NFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.4% | 3.0% | -2.2% | -3.3% |
| Carolina Panthers | 37.4% | 68.6% | +2.0% | +12.4% |
| New Orleans Saints | 62.2% | 84.9% | +0.3% | +6.4% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
After blowing away the division at the start of the season, the Saints now find the Panthers firmly on their heels. Both are favorites to make the playoffs as of right now. The rest of the division will have to regroup for next year.
| NFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3.1% | 31.2% | -0.2% | +7.1% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 13.1% | 59.5% | -10.5% | -12.5% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 83.1% | 96.8% | +10.8% | +3.9% |
| St. Louis Rams | 0.7% | 7.9% | -0.1% | +1.9% |
Seattle is the team most likely to win their division at this point and second most likely to make the playoffs. San Francisco's loss to Carolina set them back quite a bit, but they are still likely to make the playoffs. The rest of the division is arguably more still in it than the bottom two from any other division.
There are 18 teams that might not win their division even if they win out (since there are 24 non-division leading teams, that means only 6 teams currently not leading their divisions are assured to take over if they win out). Of those 18, 12 might even miss the playoffs. Tampa Bay, by far, is the most dead and could be the first team to be "out of contention" after this coming weekend.
| Div Win | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.6% | 5.6% |
| Oakland Raiders | 0.6% | 98.4% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 10.1% | 67.9% |
| St. Louis Rams | 10.8% | 96.0% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 16.0% | 41.8% |
| San Diego Chargers | 19.4% | 99.9% |
| Buffalo Bills | 21.5% | 51.7% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 26.6% | 34.4% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 46.9% | 100.0% |
| Houston Texans | 60.4% | 88.6% |
| Miami Dolphins | 76.6% | 100.0% |
| New York Jets | 88.5% | 100.0% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 89.3% | 100.0% |
| New York Giants | 92.8% | 99.4% |
| Chicago Bears | 93.0% | 100.0% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 96.3% | 99.7% |
| Washington Redskins | 96.4% | 99.6% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 99.0% | 100.0% |
There are four teams that might make the playoffs or win their division even if they lose out. The Chiefs are the farthest along in locking up a playoff spot (a win against Denver will perhaps clinch one). The Seahawks could win the NFC West even with losing out, but it seems highly unlikely.
| Div Win | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.0% | 56.3% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7.6% | 40.6% |
| Denver Broncos | 0.0% | 2.3% |
| New England Patriots | 0.6% | 0.7% |
Monday, November 11, 2013
NFL 2013 Playoff Picture: Week 10
The following is calculated assuming that all unplayed games are 0-0 ties. That is assumed to make tiebreakers work out better.
Both Jacksonville and Tampa Bay are win-less no more! Both won against teams that were 4-4 and needing a win to keep in the playoff hunt. Jacksonville's win was more surprising as it was on the road and Tampa Bay was playing a team (Miami) with some major off-the-field issues. Who would have guessed that the only remaining undefeated team would have kept it's "oh" longer than those two especially with Kansas City travelling to Denver this week. Week 10 was a week of surprises although the results left the playoff picture pretty much unchanged.
Starting off in the AFC with the East, the top half of the division was off this week, and as such, the Patriots still have a two game lead over the Jets. With their loss in MNF, the Dolphins are now a game back of New York. The Bills are 1.5 games behind Miami.
Moving onto the North, Cincinnati lost this weekend and currently hold a game and a half lead over Baltimore and Cleveland. The Ravens and Browns are 1-1 against each other this year, but Baltimore has played and lost an additional divisional game, so the Browns currently have the tiebreaker for second having a 2-1 divisional record (versus 2-2 for the Ravens). Pittsburgh is last at a game back on those two.
Down South, only the previously winless Jacksonville won. As such, the Colts still have a two game lead over the Titans who have a two game lead over the Texans who now have just a one game lead over the Jaguars.
As for the West, 9-0 Kansas City had a bye this week and saw their lead in the division drop to just a game over Denver. San Diego is four games back from the Broncos in third, and Oakland is a game back from the Chargers.
The AFC divisional leaders can all be ranked by record. The 9-0 Chiefs are at the top followed by the 7-2 Patriots. The 6-3 Colts are third, and the 6-4 Bengals are fourth.
As for the wild cards, Denver still has the best non-division leading record and controls the first wild card. New York has the best record among those in contention for the second wild card, and so they currently have it. This week AFC's playoff picture is the same as last week:
Moving onto the NFC, there's now a tie atop the East between the 5-5 Cowboys and 5-5 Eagles. Dallas won in Philadelphia when they faced off earlier this season, and so the Cowboys currently have the divisional lead via tiebreakers. The Giants and Redskins are tied for third a game and a half back from the leaders. New York and Washington have yet to play this season, but the Giants have played and won an extra divisional game and so they have the tiebreaker via having the better divisional record (1-2 versus 0-2).
Up North, the three way tie has been broken as only Detroit was victorious of the three this week. Chicago and Green Bay are now tied a game back from the Lions, and since the Bears defeated the Packers in their only match up so far this year, Chicago has second via tiebreakers. Minnesota got their second win this season on Thursday and sit 3 games back from the Bears and Packers.
The top two teams from the South won this weekend, and so the Saints maintained their game lead over the Panthers. The Falcons are four games behind Carolina. And the Buccaneers, with their win, are just a game back on Atlanta.
Out West, Seattle's lead over San Francisco has extended to two and a half games. Arizona is a game behind the 49ers, and St. Louis is one and a half games behind the Cardinals.
The NFC divisional leaders are also rank-able by record. The 9-1 Seahawks lead the way with the 7-2 Saints a game and a half behind. The Lions are currently third at 6-3, and the 5-5 Cowboys have the fourth spot.
As for the NFC's wild cards, two of the second place teams are tied at 6-3: Carolina and San Francisco. Those two faced off this past weekend, and the Panthers won, so they're currently the five seed while the 49ers are the six. Here's the current NFC playoff picture (the same teams as last week with just the two wild cards switching spots):
Looking ahead to the playoff picture after next week, the scenarios in the AFC are a lot simpler than those in the NFC. The Patriots, Bengals, and Colts will all still be leading their divisions after the weekend is over. As for the West, the Chiefs will be playing the Broncos in Denver, and the winner will be atop the division (either Kansas City with a tie game lead or Denver via head-to-head tiebreaker). The loser of that game will have the first wild card. The second wild card will go to the first team from the following list to win: Jets, Titans, Browns, Ravens, and Chargers. If all five of those teams lose, New York will keep the spot.
On the NFC side, only the Seahawks are locked in to be leading their division after next weekend. With the Cowboys on a bye next week, control of the East is in the hands of the Eagles. If Philly wins, they take over the lead otherwise it stays with Dallas. As for the North, the Lions keep the lead unless they lose, the Bears lose, and the Packers win (because Detroit controls the three-way tiebreaker via divisional record and the head-to-head tiebreaker versus Chicago so they only lose the lead in a tie with Green Bay who has the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Lions). The Saints will keep the lead in the South with a win or a loss by the Panthers. Otherwise the division lead will come down to the strength of victory tiebreaker. If New Orleans comes out behind on that tiebreaker, they will be a wild card.
As for the NFC wild cards, Carolina and San Francisco keep their spots with wins (or as just mentioned, the Panthers spot goes to the Saints if they take the divisional lead). If the Panthers lose, they will most likely still keep a wild card spot, but they could lose the spot to the Cardinals (who have a win against the Panthers). However, in order for Arizona to take the spot, the 49ers must win and the second place team from the North must not be tied with Arizona and Carolina unless that team is Detroit (whom the Cardinals also have beaten this year). As for the 49ers, they will lose the wild card spot to the Lions if Detroit falls to second in the North (by losing and having the Bears lose while the Packers win).
Sunday, November 10, 2013
My Where's George Week in Review: 11/03/13 - 11/09/13
At the start of last year, I began publishing a weekly review of my past seven days of activity in regards to Where's George. These reviews were largely focused around key goals/predictions for the year (including bills entered, bills hit, and total hits). Some of the things I tracked, in retrospect, weren't really all that interesting, and a lot of the tracking around bill entries wasn't all that useful. When one really thinks about it, Where's George is all about the hits. As such, I've revamped my weekly reviews to be focused on what was interesting about my hits in the past week, and using that data, scoring the week on a scale of 0 to 10. I'm sure as time goes on that I'll tinker with the scoring system, but I think what I have for now is good for the 1.0 version.
With that said, on a scale of 0 to 10 this past week was a:
10.0
In the past week, I got 25 hits in 8 States [AZ, CA13, FL, NM2, NV3, PA, UT, WA2] as well as an international hit in Liberia, Costa Rica. Of those hits, 2 were the 2nd hit on the bill and the rest (23) were the initial hit on the bill. Below is a calendar view of the hits throughout the week:
| Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday |
| 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
I came into the week with a 13 day hit streak. I got a hit on every day of this week which extended the streak to 20 days.
Additionally in the past week I received my first hit in 1 county bringing my total of counties hit to 567. The newly hit county was Cowlitz WA.
Of the States hit in the past week, 2 were in "Sleepy" States (a "Sleepy" State is a State in which I haven't received a hit in over twelve weeks) (last hit date in parenthesis): New Mexico (07/31/2013), Utah (08/07/2013). 21 States meet the "Sleepy" status for next week: Alaska (03/02/2010), Delaware (07/14/2011), Kentucky (10/14/2011), Rhode Island (03/04/2012), District of Columbia (09/26/2012), Tennessee (01/17/2013), Wyoming (01/17/2013), South Carolina (03/21/2013), Connecticut (03/30/2013), Nebraska (04/30/2013), Oklahoma (05/05/2013), North Dakota (05/05/2013), Maine (05/25/2013), West Virginia (05/26/2013), New Hampshire (06/22/2013), Alabama (07/08/2013), Iowa (07/15/2013), Arkansas (07/16/2013), Minnesota (08/04/2013), Colorado (08/08/2013), New Jeresy (08/16/2013).
Of the bills hit in the past week, 9 were active for more than a year. Of those, the longest active bill from the bunch was re-entered 3 Years 41 Days 0 Hours 32 Minutes after I originally entered it. That bill is now 95th on my all-time longest active list.
And now, the speed round of data on everything else. None of the hits I received in the past week were from Georgers with Profiles. Additionally 22 of the hits contained notes. 3 of the hits were on non-Georges: $50, $20, $20. The hits were on bills that spread across 9 of the 12 FRBs. The FRBs for which I didn't receive hits were Boston (A), Philadelphia (C), and Minneapolis (I). I received hits on three new combos in the past week: 2001-$1-FD, 2004A-$20-DB, and 2006-$50-BB.
So how did this week end up as a 10.0? To start off the calculation, I compare this week's number with the lowest and highest from the past 12 weeks and score it based on how it fits in that range - so if this week's number is midway between the low and the high, it scores a 0.5 for that category (i.e. if this week's States Hit was 10, the past 12 weeks' low was 5, and the past 12 weeks' high was 15, that'd be a 0.5). A category can be scored at a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 1.25 meaning that if this week is better than any of the past 12, bonus points are awarded. Some categories are worth more than others (in the 1.0 version, categories are worth either 1 or 2). The sum of the products of the category scores and value results in the overall score for the week. That number is then compared to the overall scores for the previous 12 weeks, and where it ends up in the range results in the week's score on a scale from 0 to 10 (so if the overall score is midway between the two, the week is a 5.0). A week cannot score below 0 or above 10.
Here's a tabular view of this week's scores:
| Past 12 Weeks | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stat | Week | Min | Max | Score | Weight | S*W |
| Hits that Changed States | 14 | 5 | 11 | 1.25 | 2.0 | 2.50 |
| Days with Hits | 7 | 6 | 7 | 1.00 | 2.0 | 2.00 |
| Distinct States Hit | 9 | 4 | 10 | 0.83 | 2.0 | 1.67 |
| Hits Beyond the 1st on a Bill 1 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0.00 | 2.0 | 0.00 |
| Bills Active Over a Year 2 | 17.0 | 14.2 | 53.4 | 0.07 | 2.0 | 0.14 |
| New Counties | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 2.0 | 0.50 |
| Hits from Georgers with Profiles | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 2.0 | 0.00 |
| Hits with Notes | 22 | 19 | 34 | 0.20 | 2.0 | 0.40 |
| International Hits | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.00 | 1.0 | 1.00 |
| Hits on Non-Georges | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0.75 | 1.0 | 0.75 |
| Hits in "Sleepy" States | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.00 | 1.0 | 1.00 |
| Distinct FRBs Hit | 9 | 7 | 11 | 0.50 | 1.0 | 0.50 |
| New Series/Denom/FRB/Block Combo Hit | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0.50 | 1.0 | 0.50 |
| *** TOTAL *** | 10.96 | |||||
1 - The second hit on a bill is worth 1 point. Each hit thereafter doubles in value (i.e. The third is worth 2 and the fourth is worth 4.).
2 - A bill active for a year is worth 1 point. Each additional year doubles in value and partial years add partial value.
The minimum overall score over the past 12 weeks was 4.93 and the maximum was 9.92 so this week's score of 10.96 resulted in a scale score of 10.0.
This week being considered a 10.0 just goes to show how bad my recent weeks have been and potentially how useless this scale I've created is. Other than Friday and Saturday, hit-wise this was a pretty bad week, and those two days were not spectatular. This week was largely aided by having a bunch of bills that were hit in different States from which they were entered (which is cool), having a hit every day, getting an international hit, and getting two hits in "sleepy" States. This "amazing" 10.0 of a week set a new 12 week low for hits beyond the 1st on a bill. On the positive side, this week increased the max total score over the past 12 weeks which will make it harder for future weeks to get higher scores (without earning them).
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
Rankings & What's Next: UFC Light Heavyweights
Every Wednesday for the past eight weeks, I've taken the rankings from UFC.com, Fight Matrix, Sherdog, and MMA Weekly, combined them, and used the combined rankings to determine who got the next title shot and who participated in the next #1 contender's match based on a set of rules (rules will be listed below). For the next eight weeks, I'm going to go back through all of the men's divisions (Sherdog and MMA Weekly have a pound-for-pound list for woman but not an explicit women's bantamweight list, so I'm skipping that division for now) taking a look at the fights that have occurred since my last post, how the rankings have changed, and then take a look ahead.
My previous post on the UFC Light Heavyweights can be found here.
Here's what happened in the division in the past eight weeks:
- Jon Jones defeated Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 165 to retain the title.
- Fabio Maldonado defeated Joey Beltran at UFC Fight Night 29.
- Thiago Silva defeated Matt Hamill at UFC Fight Night 29.
- Jimi Manuwa defeated Ryan Jimmo at UFC Fight Night 30.
The combined rankings for the division are now as such:
Combined Rankings
| UFC | Fight Matrix | Sherdog | MMA Weekly | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last Update: | 10/28/2013 | 11/03/2013 | 10/28/2013 | 10/27/2013 | |||||||||
| 1. | Jon Jones | 1 | (0) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2. | Alexander Gustafsson | 2 | (1) | 4 | 2 | 2 | |||||||
| 3. | Phil Davis | 4 | (3) | 2 | 4 | 5 | |||||||
| 4. | Rashad Evans | 5 | (4) | 3 | 3 | 6 | |||||||
| 5. | Glover Teixeira | 3 | (2) | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||||||
| 6. | Antonio Nogueira | 6 | (5) | 5 | 7 | 4 | |||||||
| 7. | Dan Henderson | 7 | (6) | 8 | 5 | 7 | |||||||
| 8. | Chael Sonnen | 8 | (7) | 6 | 10 | 8 | |||||||
| 9. | Gegard Mousasi | 9 | (8) | 9 | 9 | 10 | |||||||
| 10. | Mauricio Rua | 10 | (9) | 10 | 9 | ||||||||
| Ryan Bader | 8 | ||||||||||||
With most of the fighters in the top ten not active in the past eight weeks (which isn't surprising and is a sign that I probably should do this every eight weeks for each division), there's not a lot of changes in the light heavyweight top ten. Gustafsson moved up a spot after a very strong showing in his title fight loss to Jones. Machida has fallen out of the top ten with his move down to middleweight. Otherwise everything else is pretty much the same.
My rules for determining who gets the next title shot and who fights to be the next #1 contender:
- The next title contender would be the highest ranked fighter that:
- Won two fights in a row.
- Won three fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won five fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
- The next #1 contender match would be between the next two highest ranked fighters that:
- Won his last fight.
- Won two fights since his last loss in a title fight or against the current champion unless he's a former champion that successfully defended the belt.
- Won four fights in a row if his number of losses against the current champion is two greater than his number of wins.
Matches I'd Make
Starting off with the title shot, up next for Jon Jones would be Phil Davis. Mr. Wonderful has rattled off three wins since his loss to Evans in a title eliminator match and he's due to get his shot at the title. For the #1 contender's match, I'd set up Glover Teixeira to thrown down with Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Only three other fighters in the top ten are coming off of wins: Rashad Evans, Chael Sonnen, and Gegard Mousasi. Since Evans and Sonnen are the higher ranked of the three, I'd match those two up. As for Mousasi, we'll have to look a bit deeper in the division. I think the best two options are Thiago Silva and Jimi Manuwa. With Silva missing weight in his last fight, I wouldn't want to reward him with Mousasi, so I'd pair up Manuwa and Mousasi instead. As for the fighters coming off of losses, I'd match up Alexander Gustafsson with Dan Henderson to get one of the two back into the title picture. Then I'd let Mauricio Rua take on Ryan Bader to see which one of the two deserves to be at the bottom of the top ten.
Matches the UFC has Made
Although not officially signed nor slated for an event, the UFC has stated that Teixeira gets the next crack at Jones. Gustafsson was set up to take on Nogueira in March with a title rematch for Alex on the line, but Little Nog has had to withdraw from the fight and has been replaced by Manuwa (who will be fighting in his home country). Rashad Evans and Chael Sonnen are set to lock horns at UFC 167 the weekend after next. Henderson is moving down to middleweight to take on Vitor Belfort in the main event of UFC Fight Night 32 this Saturday. Mousasi will also be dropping down to middleweight, and he will take on Lyoto Machida in the main event of a fight night in Brazil in February. Rua and Bader will both be fighting at UFC Fight Night 33 in Australia but not against each other. Shogun will be taking on James Te Huna while Bader will be taking on the aging Anthony Perosh. Both Te Huna and Perosh are from Australia.
Matches I'd Add to the UFC's
Only two fighters from the top ten are without opponents: Davis and Nogueira. Mr. Wonderful defeated Little Nog in early 2011, and with Nogueira out through at least March, there's no point in holding up Davis waiting for this match up. Rumors are that Phil will be the one to welcome Daniel Cormier to the light heavyweight division, and I can accept that match up although I'd expect a stinker of a fight.
A number of the top guys from the division are moving down to middleweight likely because the Anderson Silva era might be over and Chris Weidman seems beatable. With the close fight between Jones and Gustafsson, it'll be interesting to see if some of the contenders make their way back up thinking that Bones' weakness may have been exposed. With DC coming down (and Dos Santos ought to be trying to figure out if there's any way he could make 205) and a Gus rematch on the horizon, 2014 should be an interesting year for the division.
Tuesday, November 5, 2013
2013 NFL Playoff Possibilities: Week 9
The following percentages were calculated by "playing out" the remaining games of the season via coinflip with one caveat: for each set of simulations, one team is picked to win out while another is picked to lose out. Each combo is used an equal number of times. Using the "win out"/"lose out" teams gives information on which teams are starting to have their playoff chances fade away (i.e. those teams that don't always make the playoffs when they win out) and which teams are locking up a spot (i.e. those teams that make the playoffs even if they lose out).
| AFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Buffalo Bills | 3.1% | 5.8% | -4.2% | -5.7% |
| Miami Dolphins | 10.7% | 24.5% | +0.0% | +5.6% |
| New England Patriots | 70.5% | 83.0% | +4.7% | +6.8% |
| New York Jets | 15.7% | 32.0% | -0.5% | +5.5% |
New England, New York, and Miami won this weekend, but only the Patriots saw their odds of winning the division increase. The Dolphins didn't lose any ground unlike the Jets because their win came against a conference foe. The Bills are pretty much done.
| AFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 12.0% | 15.1% | -4.3% | -7.6% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 62.9% | 70.2% | -3.4% | -6.1% |
| Cleveland Browns | 18.6% | 23.6% | +8.8% | +9.2% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.6% | 7.7% | -1.0% | -3.0% |
The Browns were the only winners from the division this past weekend, but they only got a slight boost from the win.
| AFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Houston Texans | 4.6% | 7.2% | -7.8% | -7.8% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 73.7% | 79.9% | +6.7% | +8.1% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.7% | 0.9% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| Tennessee Titans | 21.0% | 32.5% | +1.6% | +6.1% |
Funny to think that had Houston not gotten "lucky" in their first two games, that the AFC South could have two 0-8 teams. Indianapolis has a pretty strong hold on the division, but Tennessee is still alive.
| AFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Denver Broncos | 30.3% | 83.8% | -3.1% | +0.3% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 65.1% | 96.9% | +7.8% | +3.9% |
| Oakland Raiders | 0.6% | 12.0% | -1.6% | -5.9% |
| San Diego Chargers | 3.9% | 24.8% | -3.1% | -8.9% |
The Chiefs are closing in on locking up the first playoff position. The two games between Kansas City and Denver between weeks 11 and 13 will decide the fate of the division, but all of the teams in the division are still alive in the playoff hunt.
| NFC East | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 57.6% | 62.9% | +2.8% | +4.8% |
| New York Giants | 7.4% | 8.8% | -2.8% | -2.5% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 20.9% | 28.0% | +0.3% | +3.3% |
| Washington Redskins | 14.2% | 16.7% | -0.3% | +0.8% |
Dallas had to fight to comeback against lowly Minnesota, but the win helped solidify their lead in the division. New York has the best chance of any of the last place teams to win their division.
| NFC North | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Chicago Bears | 32.9% | 47.4% | +11.0% | +12.3% |
| Detroit Lions | 33.6% | 50.5% | +3.8% | -0.6% |
| Green Bay Packers | 33.2% | 48.0% | -13.7% | -14.2% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.4% | 1.5% | -1.1% | -2.5% |
The three-way tie between the Bears, Lions, and Packers can be seen in each of their division winning chances. Detroit has a slight edge due to having the best conference record, and likewise Green Bay has an edge over Chicago for the same reason even though the Bears won the first match up between the two.
| NFC South | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 2.6% | 6.3% | -2.8% | -5.2% |
| Carolina Panthers | 35.4% | 56.2% | +11.7% | +12.7% |
| New Orleans Saints | 61.9% | 78.5% | -8.5% | -5.8% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.4% | -2.3% |
Things are getting tighter in the South, as Carolina closes in on New Orleans. Tampa Bay has the worst playoff chances of any team in the NFL.
| NFC West | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division | Playoffs | Division Δ | Playoffs Δ | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3.4% | 24.0% | -1.2% | -0.8% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 23.6% | 72.0% | -4.9% | -0.5% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 72.3% | 92.9% | +7.8% | +4.5% |
| St. Louis Rams | 0.8% | 6.0% | -1.7% | -4.0% |
The Seahawks have the second best shot of winning their division and the second best chance of making the playoffs of all teams in the NFL. The 49ers have a better chance of making the playoffs than a few of the divisional leaders.
19 teams might not win their division even if they win out. Of those teams, 10 might not even make the playoffs.
| Div Win | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1.8% | 6.8% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 11.0% | 40.3% |
| St. Louis Rams | 15.9% | 95.4% |
| Oakland Raiders | 16.0% | 99.8% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 17.3% | 22.9% |
| Buffalo Bills | 50.7% | 91.6% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 53.5% | 99.2% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 58.2% | 100.0% |
| Houston Texans | 71.9% | 99.3% |
| San Diego Chargers | 77.8% | 100.0% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 87.9% | 98.8% |
| New York Jets | 88.7% | 100.0% |
| New York Giants | 89.7% | 99.5% |
| Miami Dolphins | 94.6% | 100.0% |
| Cleveland Browns | 98.1% | 100.0% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 98.2% | 100.0% |
| Washington Redskins | 98.3% | 100.0% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 98.9% | 100.0% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 99.8% | 100.0% |
Three teams have started the process of locking up a playoff position (they would still make the playoffs even if they lose out). The Chiefs lead that group already having better than a one third chance of making the playoffs if they lost their remaining seven games.
| Div Win | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.0% | 36.4% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.8% | 2.2% |
| New England Patriots | 0.3% | 0.3% |
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)