NFL Playoff Possibilties: Week Fourteen

With just three weeks to go in the NFL season, one more team locked up a playoff birth (Baltimore - although NFL.com doesn't agree; more on them later) and four more have been eliminated from contention (Tennessee, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Arizona). As with last week, we'll look at this data division by division.

AFC East
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
New England Patriots	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
New York Jets	42%	0%	0%	0%	6.9%	0.0%	2.5%	0.0%
Buffalo Bills	15%	0%	0%	0%	2.3%	0.0%	-2.1%	0.0%
Miami Dolphins	7%	0%	0%	0%	1.0%	0.0%	-3.3%	0.0%

The Patriots locked up their playoff spot last week and improved their shot at the #1 seed by knocking off the Texans. Losses by both the Steelers and Bengals have helped keep the 6-7 Jets in the playoff hunt. The Jets are currently behind on tiebreakers though, so even if they can pull even, they wouldn't move into a playoff spot at this point (the Jets lost to the Steelers this season, and the Steelers are ahead of the Bengals also by the head-to-head tiebreaker). The Bills and Dolphins are pretty much out of it, but if the planets align, one of the two could make it (neither could overtake the Colts, so at best, one of the two could be the #6).

AFC North
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Baltimore Ravens	100%	100%	100%	49%	100.0%	92.0%	0.7%	5.1%
Cincinnati Bengals	100%	26%	0%	0%	38.6%	4.3%	-6.7%	-2.9%
Pittsburgh Steelers	100%	14%	0%	0%	47.9%	3.7%	-4.6%	-2.2%
Cleveland Browns	23%	0%	0%	0%	3.3%	0.0%	2.5%	0.0%

According to my program, Baltimore has now locked up a playoff position because there are only three teams in the AFC that can catch them record-wise (other than the other three division leaders and Indianapolis): Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and New York. The Steelers and Bengals face off in Week 16. If we play out the season with Baltimore losing out, New York and Cincinnati winning out, and Pittsburgh winning out other than the game against Cincinnati, the Bengals will win the North, and the Ravens, Steelers, and Jets will all be tied at 9-7. Baltimore will be ahead of Pittsburgh in the North based on having a better divisional record (4-2 vs 3-3) and be ahead of New York in the AFC seeding based on having a better conference record: 8-4 vs 7-5. So in that scenario, the Ravens will be the #6 seed. If we flip the Steelers/Bengals game in favor of Pittsburgh, the Steelers then win the North, and the Bengals, Ravens, and Jets will all be tied at 9-7. Baltimore will be ahead of Cincinnati based on divisional record (4-2 vs 2-4) and still be ahead of New York based on conference record thus still getting the #6 seed. So in the two worst case scenarios for the Ravens, they still end up as a wild card.

Most likely either the Bengals or Steelers will make the playoffs though loses by both this past weekend impacted their chances of winning the division and getting the wild card spot. The Browns are still alive (same story as the Bills and Dolphins: only for the #6 seed) but barely.

AFC South
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Houston Texans	100%	100%	100%	0%	100.0%	77.4%	0.0%	-11.2%
Indianapolis Colts	100%	100%	90%	0%	98.4%	22.6%	11.3%	11.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Tennessee Titans	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.9%	0.0%

The Texans locked up their playoff spot last week but weakened their hold on the division (and chances for the #1 seed) by losing to the Patriots. Two of their final three games are against the Colts, so they have the opportunity to close things out themselves. Indianapolis is pretty close to locking up a playoff spot and will likely do so with one more win.

AFC West
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Denver Broncos	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
San Diego Chargers	11%	0%	0%	0%	1.7%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%
Kansas City Chiefs	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Oakland Raiders	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The Broncos wrapped up the division last week. The Chargers are in the same position as the Bills, Dolphins, and Browns: they can only get to be the #6 seed, and it's going to take a lot of dominoes falling into place. Of those four teams, San Diego is third likely (the Browns have the best long-shot chance followed by the Bills).

NFC East
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
New York Giants	100%	100%	1%	0%	71.6%	45.8%	8.2%	1.7%
Dallas Cowboys	98%	87%	0%	0%	33.5%	27.2%	0.7%	-0.8%
Washington Redskins	<100%	87%	0%	0%	40.3%	27.0%	3.7%	-0.8%
Philadelphia Eagles	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The NFC East now has the hottest playoff race in the NFL, and it's starting to look like we may see two of it's teams make the playoffs. All four of the East's teams won this past weekend, but even with their win, the Eagles are now out of the running for a playoff spot. The Week 17 matchup between the 'Skins and the 'Boys is likely on that will impact how things turn out.

NFC North
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Green Bay Packers	100%	100%	26%	7%	88.0%	76.7%	5.0%	20.5%
Chicago Bears	100%	74%	>0%	0%	54.8%	16.2%	-23.5%	-20.6%
Minnesota Vikings	96%	37%	0%	0%	23.7%	7.2%	4.7%	0.2%
Detroit Lions	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.2%	0.0%

With Chicago losing this past weekend, Green Bay now has a dominating position in the North. The two face off this weekend, and a Packers win will give them the division while likely knocking the Bears off of their wild card spot and forcing them to fight their way back into the picture. The Vikings are still in the picture, but it doesn't seem like they're in good position in regards to tie-breakers against the other wild card candidates.

NFC South
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Atlanta Falcons	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	17%	0%	0%	0%	2.5%	0.0%	-13.2%	0.0%
New Orleans Saints	>0%	0%	0%	0%	0.1%	0.0%	-5.6%	0.0%
Carolina Panthers	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Atlanta secured this division last week, and although they had a rough loss on Sunday to Carolina, will likely still be the NFC #1 seed. Tampa Bay and New Orleans both crippled their playoff hopes with losses, but with some help, they could still be wild cards.

NFC West
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
San Francisco 49ers	100%	100%	89%	18%	98.3%	80.7%	6.0%	3.9%
Seattle Seahawks	100%	75%	2%	0%	72.5%	18.3%	13.4%	-2.3%
St. Louis Rams	87%	7%	0%	0%	14.7%	1.0%	1.3%	-1.5%
Arizona Cardinals	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.4%	0.0%

The Niners and Seahawks both improved their playoff chances with victories over the weekend. San Francisco is close to locking up a playoff spot, although their next two games are going to be tough (at New England and at Seattle). If the 49ers don't win either of those games, Seattle is in good shape to take the division (since they'll have the victory over San Francisco and their other games are against the Bills and Rams).