NFL Playoff Picture: Week Fifteen

This week had the greatest impact on the playoff picture than we've seen in quite a while. A division lead changed hands with the loser failing completely out, and a new wild card team arose on each side. The AFC divisional seed also shuffled a bit. With just two weeks to go, things should get interesting (although more so on the NFC side).

Starting off with the AFC, there were no changes in divisional leadership. New England and Denver previously locked up their respective divisions. Houston has now joined them in that regard. The only division left up for grabs is the North where Baltimore leads Cincinnati (the two face off in week 17) by one game. Pittsburgh is two games back and could still sneak into the lead.

As for the wild card, Indianapolis still has a hold on the #5 seed although their loss to the Texans this past weekend cut into it a bit. The Bengals moved into the #6 spot this past weekend, but they'll face off against their main competition, the Steelers, this coming weekend.

The AFC divisional leaders can now all be ranked by record (been a while since the tiebreakers haven't come into play). The Texans (#1) have a game lead over the Broncos (#2) who have a game lead over the Patriots (#3) who have, you guessed it, a game lead over the Ravens (#4). The current AFC playoff picture is:

On the NFC side, there's now a three-way tie for the lead in the East between Dallas, New York, and Washington. The Redskins currently have the tiebreaker and have taken the divisional lead. Green Bay wrapped up the North by defeating Chicago this past weekend. Atlanta's had the South locked up for a few weeks now. And out West, San Francisco controls a game and a half lead over Seattle.

The Seahawks currently sit in the #5 spot by having the best non-division leading record in the NFC. Things get complicated after that as there are four 8-6 non-division leading teams: the Cowboys, Giants, Bears, and Vikings. Divisional tiebreakers get applied first, so New York and Chicago are eliminated from consideration as they are behind Dallas and Minnesota respectively (in each case based on divisional record). The Vikings edge out the Cowboys for the #6 seed by having a better conference record (Minnesota has played one more conference game so far, so Dallas has a chance to overcome this tiebreaker): 6-5 vs 5-5.

The NFC divisional leaders can also be ranked by record. The Falcons (#1) lead the 49ers (#2) by a game and a half. The Niners lead the Packers (#3) by a half game. Green Bay leads the Redskins (#4) by two games. Thus, the NFC playoff picture currently looks as such:

Not a lot of action possible on the AFC side after Week 16: none of the divisional leaders will be replaced, and Indianapolis is secure as the #5. The winner of Cincinnati/Pittsburgh will be the #6.

As for the NFC, only the East can see a divisional change. Washington will continue to lead the East if they win or if both Dallas and New York lose. If the Redskins lose, the Cowboys take over with a win. And if both the 'Skins and 'Boys lose, the Giants retake the division with a win.

Seattle will have one of the two wild card spots regardless of their outcome this weekend. The final spot could be held by five different teams. The scenarios for that spot are:

• Minnesota will be the #6 seed if:
  • they win and at most only one of Dallas, New York, and Washington wins
      or
  • they lose and so do the Bears, Cowboys, and Giants
• New York will be a wild card team (#5 if Seattle loses otherwise #6) if they win and one and only one of Dallas or Washington wins.
• Dallas will be the #6 if they win, the Redskins win and:
  • the Bears lose
      or
  • the Vikings win
• Chicago will be the #6 if they win, Minnesota loses, and
  • New York loses
      or
  • New York wins and Washington and Dallas both win or both lose
• Washington will be the #6 if they lose, the Bears and Vikings both lose, and one and only one of the Cowboys and Giants win.