Running: Retrospective and Plan

I set 4 goals for my running in 2012 at the start of 2012 (see my New Year's Running Resolutions post). I did pretty well in regards to completing the goals (missed just one):

1. Participate in 12 organized runs of at least 5K

   This is the goal on which I came up a little short: I only completed 10. I ended up skipping out on the Sacramento Zoo Zoom in April due to illness. Had I not, I probably would have done the Jingle Bell Rock'n 10K in December to get in my twelfth event. Of the ten I completed, only 1 was a 5K, 8 were 10Ks, and then the other event was the half-marathon (I distance I didn't expect to do at the beginning of the year).

2. Lower my 5K Personal Record to below 27 minutes

   I annihilated this goal in the sole 5K I ran in 2012 with a time of 25:33. Going to be hard to beat that one.

3. Set/Lower my 10K Personal Record to below 62 minutes

   Only one of my 10Ks was worse than 62 minutes: the hilly and hot Folsom Run with Nature. My best 10K of the year was 53:05 which will also be a tough time to beat.

4. Increase my "Pace Record" at two or more events

   I actually increased it in 4 (I only re-ran 4 events from 2011 in 2012): The Folsom Firecracker, Run for Courage, Intel GPTW 5K, and the Folsom Turkey Trot.

I have a few more goals in mind for 2013 although I'm not sure that I'll be as successful as I was in 2012. Here's what I'd like to accomplish in the new year:

1. Complete two half-marathons

   If I'm going to run half-marathons, I probably should target two a year to keep myself in the right condition to complete them. I've already signed up for the Shamrock'n Half Marathon and expect to also run the Urban Cow Half Marathon in October.

2. Participate in ten 10Ks

   An increase of two from what I did in 2012. Will likely require that I double up on a couple months in the summer (to not interfere with half-marathon training).

3. Improve my half-marathon PR to under 2 hours

   2 hours may be a bit optimistic, but if I keep healthy, I think I'd be able to get pretty close. I also think the two half-marathons I'm targeting are flatter than Four Bridges which should also help.

4. Improve my 10K PR to under 53 minutes

   Since my PR is currently 53:05, this goal is pretty much to just set a new PR.

5. Improve my 5K PR to under 25:30

   Similar story as the previous. My current PR is 25:33, so this is just a goal to beat it.

6. Set a new "Event Pace Record" at every event

   Basically if I run an event I've ran before, finish at a faster speed than I did previously (regardless of distance).

7. Run 800 miles

   If I run 16 miles a week (4 miles twice during the week and 8 on the weekend) every week, I'll run 832. I'll run more than that most weeks while training for half-marathons, but I'll run less during race weeks (targeting 11 at this point). I'll likely miss out on some miles while on vacation and/or while recovering (from racing or injuries). My gut feel is that this goal is too ambitious, but at least I'll have a baseline distance at the end of the year.

I look forward to taking on and hopefully completing these goals in 2013.

Weight Management: Retrospective and Plan

At the beginning of the year, I posted my 2012 Weight Management Plan which I started off with the following line:

2011 was not really a stellar year for weight management.

Sadly the same could be said for 2012. The first two months of the year were good as I was able to trim down my weight from 175 to about 170. After that, I had difficulty breaking the 170 barrier, and eventually started to watch my weight increase. I was able to stop the "bleeding" occasionally, but near the end of November, I found myself in the upper 180s. I put together a good solid effort in December to get myself back down to 180, and that's where I stand today.

I made some interesting observations about my weight in 2012 especially in regards to running. First off, being lighter didn't seem to make me faster. I think this is more so an observation that dieting (cutting calories) not surprisingly affects my athletic performance. I would expect that if I hit my ideal weight (whatever that is ... I was hoping to figure it out this past year) and stayed there, I'd see an improved performance since I'd be lighter and eating normally. My second observation (which affects my ability to commit to losing more pounds) is that at 178 I can run a half-marathon. It's hard to be disappointed with my weight if I can carry it for 13.1 miles.

In the past, I've always targeted losing a pound a week (which requires a 500 calorie deficit from maintenance calories). Since I'm currently at a "functioning" weight and since I've signed up for a half-marathon in March, I've set my plan on Lose It to a goal weight of 170 targeting a half pound a week (a 250 calorie deficit per day). I think the additional 250 calories will give me a reasonable target that will have me keeping my calories in check without spending too much time being hungry due to the diet.

At a rate of a half pound a week, I would hit 170 in mid-May. I plan to re-evaluate the plan after the half-marathon in March when I should be roughly 175 if all goes well.

When comparing weights, I like to look at my average weight over a week compared to the same measurement in the next. With that in mind, my baseline weight from this last week of 2012 is:

Dates	Avg Weight	Max Weight	Min Weight
12/24-12/30	179.9	181.0	178.8

The downside to comparing weights this way is that the performance of the end of the previous week affects the next week's average. Since I didn't do that well keeping myself in check calorie-wise this past week, I'm not sure that I'll see a half pound loss after the first week under the new plan, but I should see a bit of a loss, I would expect.

My Where's George Week in Review: 12/23/12 - 12/29/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 25 hits in 7 States [CA¹⁷, FL², HI, ID, NC, NV², TX]. I still have hits in 44 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 483 counties with 2 new this week: Polk FL, Columbus NC.

Of those 25 hits, 1 was the 3^rd hit on the bill, 4 were the 2^nd hit on the bill, and the rest (20) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 3 Years 127 Days 11 Hours 11 Minutes after I originally entered it.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
23	24	25	26	27	28	29
2	2	2	7	1	5	6

My hit streak has now reached an all-time best (for me) at 84 days. A number of days didn't get their first hit until late in the afternoon this past week, and I am really surprised that the streak is still going. Hopefully it will continue through the New Year holiday.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, it was a light week for entries and an "on target" week for hits. All three stats have far surpassed prediction:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	22830	22882	52	6162	21720	95.6	21693	-44	+1189
Bills with Hits	2430	3682	3702	20	1272	3445	19.4	3439	+1	+263
Total Hits	2799	4301	4326	25	1527	4030	23.5	4023	+1	+303

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.64% [+1.35%].

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	20006	20054	48	5627	18959	47.1	20012	+1	+42
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6196 entries this year rather than 5000						20003	46.8	19972	+1	+82

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, this has long been completed:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3894	3895	1	292		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	24	2791	-1	+646
2009	1339	5044	5068	24	3729		Actual	23	3437

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", not a lot of change as it was a light week for entries. I went a bit overboard in completing this goal:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	10911	47.79%	10935	47.79%	< 50.0%	49.94%	11384	+449
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	778	3.41%	780	3.41%	> 2.8%	2.85%	657	+123
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	815	3.57%	816	3.57%	> 2.4%	2.45%	565	+251
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	735	3.22%	739	3.23%	> 2.3%	2.35%	541	+198
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	652	2.86%	654	2.86%	> 2.2%	2.25%	515	+139
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	602	2.64%	602	2.63%	> 2.1%	2.15%	494	+108
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	558	2.44%	558	2.44%	> 1.7%	1.75%	402	+156

Just a couple more days left in 2012, and it was a good year for me in regards to Georging. I'll post a wrap-up on the year on New Year's Day as well as my predictions/goals/wishes for 2013.

NFL Playoff Picture: Week Sixteen

Week 16 brought no changes to the playoff teams and very little in changes to the seeding (just one swap on the NFC side). The AFC playoff teams are now decided although the division leaders can shuffle around in regards to seeding. On the NFC side, there are just two spots left available: the NFC East divisional winner (who will be the #4) and the second Wild Card spot.

Taking a look at the AFC side, the Ravens clinched the North with their victory over the Giants this past weekend. The other divisional leaders (Patriots, Texans, and Broncos) all previously locked up their divisions. The Colts and Bengals locked up the two Wild Card spots this past weekend.

Seeding for the division leaders is still up for grabs (Indianapolis and Cincinnati are locked in at #5 and #6 respectively). Currently Houston is on top followed by Denver, New England, and then Baltimore. The Texans, Broncos, and Patriots all could end up as the #1. Houston and Denver could fall as low as #3. New England could fall to #4 (the only team that could end up anywhere in the top 4). The best the Ravens can do is #3. Here's how the seeding will play out:

• The Texans will be the #1 if they win. If they lose, they move down a spot if the Broncos or Patriots win and two spots if both of those teams win.
• The Broncos can be no worse that #2 if they win. In that case, they move up to #1 if the Texans lose. If Denver loses, they fall to the #3 if New England wins.
• The Patriots will fall to the #4 if they lose and Baltimore wins. If they win, they will move up a spot for each loss by Denver and Houston.
• The Ravens move up to the #3 if they win and New England loses. Otherwise they will be the #4.

The current AFC playoff picture:

Things are a bit more interesting on the NFC side. The winner of the Cowboys/Redskins matchup win be the NFC East divisional leader (and the #4 seed). The West is also still up for grabs: the 49ers get it with a win, otherwise the Seahawks can take it with a win. If both lose, San Francisco takes it. The non-division winner of those two from the West will get the first wild card. The second wild card will go to one of four teams. The Vikings get the spot with a win but they're hosting the Packers. If Minnesota loses, the Bears get the spot if they defeat the Lions. If that doesn't happen, the spot goes to the Redskins if they lost to the Cowboys. If none of those three things happen, the Giants get the spot if they win. And if that also doesn't happen, the spot stays with the Vikings.

Divisional seeding is a bit more locked up in the NFC. The Falcons have wrapped up the #1 spot. As mentioned before, the NFC East winner will be the #4. The Packers are currently the #2 and will keep it with a win. If Green Bay loses, they lose the #2 to the NFC West winner if that team wins in week 17 otherwise they keep the #2. The NFC picture is currently:

Should be quite the race to the finish. Definitely will be interesting to see how things all shuffle out.

My Where's George Week in Review: 12/16/12 - 12/22/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 31 hits in 7 States [AZ, CA²⁵, HI, LA, NM, OR, TX]. I still have hits in 44 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 481 counties with 2 new this week: Jefferson LA, Douglas OR.

Of those 31 hits, 1 was the 3^rd hit on the bill, 3 were the 2^nd hit on the bill, and the rest (27) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 3 Years 5 Days 17 Hours 49 Minutes after I originally entered it.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
16	17	18	19	20	21	22
4	2	6	5	3	6	5

An eleventh straight week without a hitless day extends my hit streak to 77 (4 days away from tying my all-time best and 2 days away from tying for second best). Going to be hard to make it through the next four days: the last shopping Sunday before Christmas, Christmas Eve, Christmas, and the day after Christmas (another big shopping day). But hopefully I will.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, it was a good week for all three stats:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	22719	22830	111	6110	21720	95.6	21597	+15	+1233
Bills with Hits	2430	3655	3682	27	1252	3445	19.4	3420	+8	+262
Total Hits	2799	4270	4301	31	1502	4030	23.5	4000	+7	+301

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.63% [+1.34%].

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	19901	20006	105	5579	18959	100.6	19965	+4	+41
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6265 entries this year rather than 5000						20063	99.9	19924	+5	+82

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, I surpassed 5000 series 2009 entries this past week:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3893	3894	1	291		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	50	2768	+11	+646
2009	1339	4982	5044	62	3705		Actual	61	3414

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", I'm still way ahead on all counts, and there was minimal positive/negative movement this week:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	10870	47.85%	10911	47.79%	< 50.0%	49.94%	11360	+449
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	774	3.41%	778	3.41%	> 2.8%	2.85%	655	+123
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	806	3.55%	815	3.57%	> 2.4%	2.45%	564	+251
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	734	3.23%	735	3.22%	> 2.3%	2.35%	540	+195
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	649	2.86%	652	2.86%	> 2.2%	2.25%	514	+138
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	602	2.65%	602	2.64%	> 2.1%	2.15%	493	+109
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	557	2.45%	558	2.44%	> 1.7%	1.75%	401	+157

Another good week of hits. This upcoming week will have me preoccupied with whether or not my current hit steak lasts long enough to take over as my longest ever.

NFL Playoff Possiblities: Week Fifteen

With two weeks to go in the season, seven of the twelve playoff spots have been claimed: Green Bay and San Francisco join the ranks of teams locked in: the Packers will win the North while the 49ers are just guaranteed to make the playoffs. Houston has upgraded to being locked in as divisional winner. 4 more teams have been eliminated: Buffalo, New York [Jets], Cleveland, and Tampa Bay.

My crowning of Baltimore as a playoff team was "premature" in that my program ignores the possiblity of games ending in an tie. I'm ok with this since ties are infrequent (and lame).

AFC East
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
New England Patriots	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Miami Dolphins	9%	0%	0%	0%	2.4%	0.0%	1.4%	0.0%
Buffalo Bills	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	-2.3%	0.0%
New York Jets	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	-6.9%	0.0%

The loss to the Niners cost the Patriots a spot in the AFC playoff seeding and could result in New England having to play a game in the Wild Card round most likely against whichever team finishes second in the North. With as bad as they looked last night, it's surprising that the Jets were able to stay in the playoff conversation for so long. Miami has to win out, have Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati in Week 16, have both of those teams lose in Week 17, and have the Jets lose one more game to get in.

AFC North
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Baltimore Ravens	100%	100%	100%	24%	100.0%	79.3%	0.0%	-12.7%
Cincinnati Bengals	100%	50%	0%	0%	61.1%	14.0%	22.5%	9.8%
Pittsburgh Steelers	100%	26%	0%	0%	36.6%	6.6%	-11.3%	2.9%
Cleveland Browns	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	-3.3%	0.0%

The best the Raven's can now do is capture the #3 seed, but with the way things are going, I expect they'll fall to a Wild Card as the Bengals take over the division. Other than the recently eliminated Browns, everyone "controls their own destiny" and will make the playoffs if they win out. The Week 16 matchup between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati is one of the biggest games left this year. The Week 17 matchup between the Ravens and Bengals will be huge if Cincinnati defeats Pittsburgh in the aforementioned game.

AFC South
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Houston Texans	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	22.6%
Indianapolis Colts	100%	0%	99%	0%	99.8%	0.0%	1.5%	-22.6%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Tennessee Titans	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The Texan's can be no worse than the #3 seed in the AFC and with one more win will lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Colts just need to win one of their last two to secure a playoff spot.

AFC West
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Denver Broncos	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Kansas City Chiefs	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Oakland Raiders	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
San Diego Chargers	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	-1.7%	0.0%

The Broncos can end up no worse than #3 in the AFC and still have a shot at the top spot. The AFC West is the first division to have all of it's non-division leaders eliminated from contention.

NFC East
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Washington Redskins	100%	100%	1%	0%	59.7%	44.2%	19.4%	17.2%
Dallas Cowboys	100%	100%	0%	0%	46.6%	43.7%	13.1%	16.6%
New York Giants	100%	49%	0%	0%	44.1%	12.1%	-27.4%	-33.8%
Philadelphia Eagles	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The NFC East is the only division where none of the teams have secured a playoff spot, however, all three of the teams are gauranteed to make the playoffs if they win out, and Washington and Dallas are guaranteed to win the division if they win out. The Redskins and Cowboys face off in Week 17 in what could be the deciding game for the East. The divisional winner is likely to be the NFC's #4 but there's an outside chance at the #3. The #2 team from the division should be a strong candidate for a Wild Card although the 'Boys seem to be behind on tiebreakers to most of the other potential Wild Card team. Unfortunately for the Giants, the Cowboys currently have the tiebreaker between those two.

NFC North
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Green Bay Packers	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	12.0%	23.3%
Minnesota Vikings	90%	0%	1%	0%	35.8%	0.0%	12.1%	-7.2%
Chicago Bears	73%	0%	0%	0%	23.7%	0.0%	-31.1%	-16.2%
Detroit Lions	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The Packers shored up the North with their defeat of the Bears this past weekend. Although the Vikings are currently the second NFC wild card, they don't control their "destiny" in regards to making the playoffs (they could get jumped by the Giants if New York also wins out and Dallas loses a game since Minnesota current has the tiebreaker over the Cowboys who have it over the Giants, but New York has the tiebreaker over the Vikings). The Bears could move back into the playoff picture, but they need the Vikings to lose.

NFC South
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Atlanta Falcons	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
New Orleans Saints	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Carolina Panthers	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	-2.5%	0.0%

Atlanta secures the #1 seed with just one more win, and they can't fall below #3. New Orleans is still alive, but needs a lot of help. If they win out, the Bears lose out, the Vikings lose out, the Giants lose out, either the Redskins or Cowboys lose out, and the Rams lose a game, the Saints will be the #6 seed.

NFC West
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
San Francisco 49ers	100%	100%	100%	50%	100.0%	86.0%	1.7%	5.3%
Seattle Seahawks	100%	50%	61%	0%	89.7%	14.0%	17.2%	-4.3%
St. Louis Rams	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.3%	0.0%	-14.4%	-1.0%
Arizona Cardinals	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The Niners clinched a playoff spot by defeating the Patriots and clinch the division with one more win. If they win the division, they will be no worse than the #3 seed, and if they fall to a Wild Card spot, they will be the #5. Seattle secures a playoff spot with one more win and wins the division if they win out while San Francisco loses out. The Rams still have a long shot (although not as long as the Saints) for the #6. They get it if they win out, the Bears lose out, the Vikings lose out, the Giants lose out, and either the Redskins or Cowboys lose out.

NFL Playoff Picture: Week Fifteen

This week had the greatest impact on the playoff picture than we've seen in quite a while. A division lead changed hands with the loser failing completely out, and a new wild card team arose on each side. The AFC divisional seed also shuffled a bit. With just two weeks to go, things should get interesting (although more so on the NFC side).

Starting off with the AFC, there were no changes in divisional leadership. New England and Denver previously locked up their respective divisions. Houston has now joined them in that regard. The only division left up for grabs is the North where Baltimore leads Cincinnati (the two face off in week 17) by one game. Pittsburgh is two games back and could still sneak into the lead.

As for the wild card, Indianapolis still has a hold on the #5 seed although their loss to the Texans this past weekend cut into it a bit. The Bengals moved into the #6 spot this past weekend, but they'll face off against their main competition, the Steelers, this coming weekend.

The AFC divisional leaders can now all be ranked by record (been a while since the tiebreakers haven't come into play). The Texans (#1) have a game lead over the Broncos (#2) who have a game lead over the Patriots (#3) who have, you guessed it, a game lead over the Ravens (#4). The current AFC playoff picture is:

On the NFC side, there's now a three-way tie for the lead in the East between Dallas, New York, and Washington. The Redskins currently have the tiebreaker and have taken the divisional lead. Green Bay wrapped up the North by defeating Chicago this past weekend. Atlanta's had the South locked up for a few weeks now. And out West, San Francisco controls a game and a half lead over Seattle.

The Seahawks currently sit in the #5 spot by having the best non-division leading record in the NFC. Things get complicated after that as there are four 8-6 non-division leading teams: the Cowboys, Giants, Bears, and Vikings. Divisional tiebreakers get applied first, so New York and Chicago are eliminated from consideration as they are behind Dallas and Minnesota respectively (in each case based on divisional record). The Vikings edge out the Cowboys for the #6 seed by having a better conference record (Minnesota has played one more conference game so far, so Dallas has a chance to overcome this tiebreaker): 6-5 vs 5-5.

The NFC divisional leaders can also be ranked by record. The Falcons (#1) lead the 49ers (#2) by a game and a half. The Niners lead the Packers (#3) by a half game. Green Bay leads the Redskins (#4) by two games. Thus, the NFC playoff picture currently looks as such:

Not a lot of action possible on the AFC side after Week 16: none of the divisional leaders will be replaced, and Indianapolis is secure as the #5. The winner of Cincinnati/Pittsburgh will be the #6.

As for the NFC, only the East can see a divisional change. Washington will continue to lead the East if they win or if both Dallas and New York lose. If the Redskins lose, the Cowboys take over with a win. And if both the 'Skins and 'Boys lose, the Giants retake the division with a win.

Seattle will have one of the two wild card spots regardless of their outcome this weekend. The final spot could be held by five different teams. The scenarios for that spot are:

• Minnesota will be the #6 seed if:
  • they win and at most only one of Dallas, New York, and Washington wins
      or
  • they lose and so do the Bears, Cowboys, and Giants
• New York will be a wild card team (#5 if Seattle loses otherwise #6) if they win and one and only one of Dallas or Washington wins.
• Dallas will be the #6 if they win, the Redskins win and:
  • the Bears lose
      or
  • the Vikings win
• Chicago will be the #6 if they win, Minnesota loses, and
  • New York loses
      or
  • New York wins and Washington and Dallas both win or both lose
• Washington will be the #6 if they lose, the Bears and Vikings both lose, and one and only one of the Cowboys and Giants win.

My Where's George Week in Review: 12/09/12 - 12/15/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 26 hits in 5 States [AZ², CA²⁰, NC, NV², WA]. I still have hits in 44 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 479 counties with none new this week.

Of those 26 hits, 1 was the 3^rd hit on the bill, 7 were the 2^nd hit on the bill, and the rest (18) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 2 Years 279 Days 12 Hours 41 Minutes after I originally entered it.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
09	10	11	12	13	14	15
4	4	4	5	4	2	3

For the tenth week in a row, I received a hit every day of the week extending my hit streak to 70 days. I'm now 11 days away from tying my longest all-time hit streak, but it's going to be tough as we're in the final days of the Christmas shopping season (although bills will change hands often, lots of people will be too busy to enter the bills on Where's George) as well as needing hits through the holiday itself. I have not made it through the later half of December without getting at least one hit-less day since I started Georging. Hopefully this year will be the year!

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, it was an on target week for hits and slightly above target for entries. I'm now a bill shy of having entered 6000 bills in 2012:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	22612	22719	107	5999	21720	95.6	21501	+11	+1218
Bills with Hits	2430	3637	3655	18	1225	3445	19.4	3401	-1	+254
Total Hits	2799	4244	4270	26	1471	4030	23.5	3976	+2	+294

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.60% [+1.31%]. It was a bit of a rough week for ones, but it'll be a while before I need to enter a lot of non-ones:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	19812	19901	89	5474	18959	97	19864	-8	+37
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6274 entries this year rather than 5000						20071	96.3	19824	-7	+77

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, this goal has long been completed. My recent entries have contained more 2006s/2003As than usual. I'm just 18 bills away from entering my 5000th 2009.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3886	3893	7	290		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	48	2718	-6	+635
2009	1339	4933	4982	49	3643		Actual	42	3353

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", all held steady or improved except for Philadelphia and Kansas City:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	10824	47.87%	10870	47.85%	< 50.0%	49.94%	11308	+438
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	772	3.41%	774	3.41%	> 2.8%	2.85%	652	+122
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	803	3.55%	806	3.55%	> 2.4%	2.45%	561	+245
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	729	3.22%	734	3.23%	> 2.3%	2.35%	537	+197
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	648	2.87%	649	2.86%	> 2.2%	2.25%	512	+137
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	600	2.65%	602	2.65%	> 2.1%	2.15%	490	+112
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	557	2.46%	557	2.45%	> 1.7%	1.75%	399	+158

It was definitely a quieter week in regards to hits than last, but December is currently on pace to finish near November (130) in total hits.

NFL Playoff Possibilties: Week Fourteen

With just three weeks to go in the NFL season, one more team locked up a playoff birth (Baltimore - although NFL.com doesn't agree; more on them later) and four more have been eliminated from contention (Tennessee, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Arizona). As with last week, we'll look at this data division by division.

AFC East
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
New England Patriots	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
New York Jets	42%	0%	0%	0%	6.9%	0.0%	2.5%	0.0%
Buffalo Bills	15%	0%	0%	0%	2.3%	0.0%	-2.1%	0.0%
Miami Dolphins	7%	0%	0%	0%	1.0%	0.0%	-3.3%	0.0%

The Patriots locked up their playoff spot last week and improved their shot at the #1 seed by knocking off the Texans. Losses by both the Steelers and Bengals have helped keep the 6-7 Jets in the playoff hunt. The Jets are currently behind on tiebreakers though, so even if they can pull even, they wouldn't move into a playoff spot at this point (the Jets lost to the Steelers this season, and the Steelers are ahead of the Bengals also by the head-to-head tiebreaker). The Bills and Dolphins are pretty much out of it, but if the planets align, one of the two could make it (neither could overtake the Colts, so at best, one of the two could be the #6).

AFC North
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Baltimore Ravens	100%	100%	100%	49%	100.0%	92.0%	0.7%	5.1%
Cincinnati Bengals	100%	26%	0%	0%	38.6%	4.3%	-6.7%	-2.9%
Pittsburgh Steelers	100%	14%	0%	0%	47.9%	3.7%	-4.6%	-2.2%
Cleveland Browns	23%	0%	0%	0%	3.3%	0.0%	2.5%	0.0%

According to my program, Baltimore has now locked up a playoff position because there are only three teams in the AFC that can catch them record-wise (other than the other three division leaders and Indianapolis): Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and New York. The Steelers and Bengals face off in Week 16. If we play out the season with Baltimore losing out, New York and Cincinnati winning out, and Pittsburgh winning out other than the game against Cincinnati, the Bengals will win the North, and the Ravens, Steelers, and Jets will all be tied at 9-7. Baltimore will be ahead of Pittsburgh in the North based on having a better divisional record (4-2 vs 3-3) and be ahead of New York in the AFC seeding based on having a better conference record: 8-4 vs 7-5. So in that scenario, the Ravens will be the #6 seed. If we flip the Steelers/Bengals game in favor of Pittsburgh, the Steelers then win the North, and the Bengals, Ravens, and Jets will all be tied at 9-7. Baltimore will be ahead of Cincinnati based on divisional record (4-2 vs 2-4) and still be ahead of New York based on conference record thus still getting the #6 seed. So in the two worst case scenarios for the Ravens, they still end up as a wild card.

Most likely either the Bengals or Steelers will make the playoffs though loses by both this past weekend impacted their chances of winning the division and getting the wild card spot. The Browns are still alive (same story as the Bills and Dolphins: only for the #6 seed) but barely.

AFC South
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Houston Texans	100%	100%	100%	0%	100.0%	77.4%	0.0%	-11.2%
Indianapolis Colts	100%	100%	90%	0%	98.4%	22.6%	11.3%	11.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Tennessee Titans	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.9%	0.0%

The Texans locked up their playoff spot last week but weakened their hold on the division (and chances for the #1 seed) by losing to the Patriots. Two of their final three games are against the Colts, so they have the opportunity to close things out themselves. Indianapolis is pretty close to locking up a playoff spot and will likely do so with one more win.

AFC West
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Denver Broncos	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
San Diego Chargers	11%	0%	0%	0%	1.7%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%
Kansas City Chiefs	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Oakland Raiders	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The Broncos wrapped up the division last week. The Chargers are in the same position as the Bills, Dolphins, and Browns: they can only get to be the #6 seed, and it's going to take a lot of dominoes falling into place. Of those four teams, San Diego is third likely (the Browns have the best long-shot chance followed by the Bills).

NFC East
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
New York Giants	100%	100%	1%	0%	71.6%	45.8%	8.2%	1.7%
Dallas Cowboys	98%	87%	0%	0%	33.5%	27.2%	0.7%	-0.8%
Washington Redskins	<100%	87%	0%	0%	40.3%	27.0%	3.7%	-0.8%
Philadelphia Eagles	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The NFC East now has the hottest playoff race in the NFL, and it's starting to look like we may see two of it's teams make the playoffs. All four of the East's teams won this past weekend, but even with their win, the Eagles are now out of the running for a playoff spot. The Week 17 matchup between the 'Skins and the 'Boys is likely on that will impact how things turn out.

NFC North
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Green Bay Packers	100%	100%	26%	7%	88.0%	76.7%	5.0%	20.5%
Chicago Bears	100%	74%	>0%	0%	54.8%	16.2%	-23.5%	-20.6%
Minnesota Vikings	96%	37%	0%	0%	23.7%	7.2%	4.7%	0.2%
Detroit Lions	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.2%	0.0%

With Chicago losing this past weekend, Green Bay now has a dominating position in the North. The two face off this weekend, and a Packers win will give them the division while likely knocking the Bears off of their wild card spot and forcing them to fight their way back into the picture. The Vikings are still in the picture, but it doesn't seem like they're in good position in regards to tie-breakers against the other wild card candidates.

NFC South
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
Atlanta Falcons	100%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	17%	0%	0%	0%	2.5%	0.0%	-13.2%	0.0%
New Orleans Saints	>0%	0%	0%	0%	0.1%	0.0%	-5.6%	0.0%
Carolina Panthers	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Atlanta secured this division last week, and although they had a rough loss on Sunday to Carolina, will likely still be the NFC #1 seed. Tampa Bay and New Orleans both crippled their playoff hopes with losses, but with some help, they could still be wild cards.

NFC West
	Win Out		Lose Out		Summary		Summary Δ
	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division	Playoffs	Division
San Francisco 49ers	100%	100%	89%	18%	98.3%	80.7%	6.0%	3.9%
Seattle Seahawks	100%	75%	2%	0%	72.5%	18.3%	13.4%	-2.3%
St. Louis Rams	87%	7%	0%	0%	14.7%	1.0%	1.3%	-1.5%
Arizona Cardinals	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.4%	0.0%

The Niners and Seahawks both improved their playoff chances with victories over the weekend. San Francisco is close to locking up a playoff spot, although their next two games are going to be tough (at New England and at Seattle). If the 49ers don't win either of those games, Seattle is in good shape to take the division (since they'll have the victory over San Francisco and their other games are against the Bills and Rams).

NFL Playoff Picture: Week Fourteen

Week 14 is in the books, and there are now just three games left for teams to jockey for position. No new teams have clinched playoff positions this week, so five of the divisions are still up for grabs as are eight playoff spots. Seven of the eight division leaders are locked in as such through next week with only the NFC East up for grabs. And once again, while a couple teams shuffled positions, no teams left or entered the picture this week.

Starting off in the AFC, the Patriots and Broncos locked up the East and West respectively last week and are now just trying to improve their playoff seeds. In the North, the Texans lead is down to 2 games over the Colts. Two of their three remaining games is against Indianapolis, and if they can win one of them, Houston will lock up the division. As for the South, the Ravens maintained their two game lead over the Steelers and Bengals since all three lost.

As for the Wild Card, the Colts have a two game lead for the #5 seed over the Steelers and Bengals. Pittsburgh has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Cinncinati (although the two will face off again in week 16) and thus has the #6 seed for now.

Houston lead in the race for the top seed is down to just a game. New England and Denver are tied for second, since they won their match-up, the Patriots are the #2 seed. Baltimore is a game back from those two in fourth. The current AFC playoff picture is:

On the NFC side, the Giants maintained their lead in the East by defeating the Saints, but both the Redskins and Cowboys won to stay just a game back. The Packers now have the lead in the North by a game (rather than by tiebreakers) since the Bears lost. The Falcons wrapped up the South last week. The 49ers maintained their 1.5 game lead over the Seahawks in the West.

Chicago and Seattle are tied for the NFC Wild Card spots, but the Seahawks have the head-to-head victory and thus get the #5 while the Bears have the #6.

The NFC divisional leaders can all be ranked by record: Atlanta's at top with a 1.5 game lead over San Francisco (#2) who have a half game lead over Green Bay (#3) who leads New York (#4) by a game. The current NFC playoff picture is:

As mentioned early, all of the divisional leaders are guaranteed to still be in the lead next week except for the Giants. New York keeps the lead in the East if they win or if the Redskins and Cowboys both lose. If neither of those scenarios happen, Washington takes over the lead with a win. Dallas takes the lead with a win and a New York and Washington loss.

The Colts will still be the AFC #5 regardless of outcome next week. The #6 will switch hands to the Bengels if they win while the Steelers lose otherwise Pittsburgh keeps the spot.

The NFC Wild Card situation is much more complex. There are five teams that could be a NFC Wild Card team after week 15 (one of which is New York who'd much prefer to remain division leader). Here are the possibilities starting with most likely to least:

• Seattle retains a wild card spot unless they lose, the Bears win, the Giants lose, and only one of the Redskins and Cowboys win.
• Chicago retains a wild card spot with a win or with a loss and either:
  1. Washington and Dallas both lose
  2. a Cowboys win and a win by either the Redskins or Giants but not both
• New York falls into a wild card spot with a loss, a win by either Washington or Dallas but not both, and a loss by Chicago or Seattle.
• Washington moves into a wild card spot if they win, the Giants win, and the Bears lose. [If the Giants lose in this scenario, the Redskins would take over the division lead.]
• Minnesota moves into a wild card spot if they win, Chicago loses, and either:
  1. the Giants win
  2. New York loses while Washington and Dallas both win
  3. the Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys all lose