The 5th week of the NFL season is in the books, and there wasn't a lot of change to the playoff picture from last week. A couple of division leaders changed, but just one new team entered/exited the picture this week.
Starting off in the AFC, the Patriots have taken over the lead in the East and currently have a one game lead over all three of their rivals. The Ravens continue to lead the North and now lead the Bengals by one game as well as a head-to-head victory albeit a home win. The perfect 5-0 Texans lead the South, and their closest competition is the newly .500 Colts. Out West the Chargers hold a one game lead on the Broncos whom they host this upcoming week.
As for the wild cards, the Bengals still hold onto the 5 seed even with a loss since none of the other non-division leaders have a 3-2 record or better. The second spot comes down to the Indianapolis Colts and the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Steelers get the nod based on a better record in common games.
The AFC divisional leaders all have different records except for the Patriots and Chargers, and the Chargers currently get the nod by having the better conference record. And so, the AFC playoff picture currently looks as such:
Moving on to the NFC, the Eagles maintained their lead in the East but only by controlling the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Giants. The Vikings are still tops in the North staying ahead of the Bears based on divisional record. The perfect Falcons are tops in the South where the rest of the teams in the division only have one win a piece. And in the West, the 49ers took over the lead when Arizona lost due to having a better record in common games.
The two wild card spots are easy to identify as there are two NFC teams with 4-1 records that aren't divisional leaders: the Arizona Cardinals and the Chicago Bears. The Cardinals currently have the #5 seed based on strength of victory.
The only tie between divisional leaders on the NFC side is between Minnesota and San Francisco, and since the Vikings have beaten the Niners this season, they get the higher seed:
Five AFC teams have the possibility of moving into the playoff picture after next week's games. That is only true for three of the NFC teams currently on the outside looking in. Only the Texans, Ravens, Falcons, and Bears (thanks to a bye week) are guaranteed to be around next week. The Texans and Ravens are even guaranteed to maintain their current positions.
With that said, the top games in week 6 based on playoff picture implications are:
- Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
- New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
- Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets
- St. Louis Rams @ Miami Dolphins
- Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals
- Chicago Bears Bye Week
This game determines who currently has the lead in the West. The Chargers could still maintain a wild card spot on a loss.
The Giants claim the lead in the East if they win and the Eagles lose. Otherwise they likely take over a wild card spot. San Francisco keeps the divisional lead with a win, could keep it with a loss, and if not, has an outside change of maintaining a wild card spot.
The winner of this game puts themselves in position to take a wild card spot if either of the Bengals or Steelers stumble. The Jets could also retake the lead in the East with a win and a Patriots loss.
The Rams need to win first, but if they do, a loss by either the Vikings or Cardinals or both the 49ers and Eagles, and the Rams claim a wild card spot. A loss by both San Francisco and Arizona, and St. Louis takes over the divisional lead. Miami needs a lot of help, but with a win and a number of other teams losing, the Dolphins could find themselves in the #6 seed.
The Bills need even more help than the Dolphins to get into the picture, but it is possible. With a win, the Cardinals maintain at least their #5 spot and will overtake the divisional lead with a 49ers loss.
If the Vikings lose, the Bears will take over the lead in the North. Otherwise, the Bears will maintain at least the #6 seed and could move up to #5.
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