Very little activity in the playoff picture in week eight as only one team entered (Indianapolis) and exited (San Diego). Next week may also be quite calm. As always, the following analysis is based on calculating any un-played games as ties.
Starting off with the AFC, the Patriots throttled the Rams in England to maintain the lead in the East. The Dolphins also won to remain a half game behind. Up North, the Ravens were off on a bye but still held onto the lead. The Steelers won a big game against the Redskins to pull within a game of Baltimore. Similar story in the South, where the Texans were off but are still on top. Their closest competitor, the Colts, won but are two games back. And out West, the Broncos knocked off the Saints in an important Sunday Night Football game, and now have a one game lead over the Chargers (who lost to the Browns!) and Raiders (victorious over the Chiefs).
The Wild Card spots come down to a three-way tie between the aforementioned Dolphins, Steelers, and Colts. Miami takes the top spot via tiebreakers by having the best conference record of the three. Indianapolis gets the nod over Pittsburgh for the same reason.
The divisonal rankings in the AFC are easy to calculate as none of the teams are tied. As such, the current order is Houston, Baltimore, New England, and Denver. The AFC Playoff Pictures currently looks like:
Switching over to the NFC, the Giants won a wild one against the Cowboys this past weekend to extend their lead in the East. They now control a 2.5 game lead over both Philadelphia and Dallas. In the North, the Bears hit a last second field goal to best the Panthers. They now are 1.5 games up on both the Vikings and the Packers. Down South, the Falcons remained perfect by defeating the Eagles and control a massive four game lead over the Buccaneers. The 49ers defeated their division rivals, the Cardinals, to maintain the lead in the West. San Francisco has a two game lead over Arizona and Seattle.
The NFC wild card positions both are still in the North going to the only 5-3 teams: Minnesota and Green Bay. The Vikings currently get the #5 seed based on having a better record in common games.
Atlanta and Chicago are #1 and #2 in the NFC respectively based on record. New York and San Francisco are tied at 6-2, and since the Giants have the head-to-head victory, they get the #3. The NFC Playoff Picture current is:
All of the divisional leaders are "safe" for next week (meaning that all eight will still be tops in their division after week 9 regardless of outcomes). The current AFC wild card teams are facing off this coming week, and the winner will take the #5 seed. The loser could keep the #6 with help. That help starts with the Steelers: if the Steelers can beat the Giants, they will grab the #6 seed. If Pittsburgh falters, a win by San Diego in Thursday Night Football over the Chiefs will give the Chargers the spot. If they both lose, Miami will remain a wild card even with a loss. Next in line for the opportunity is the Bills, but they're on the road in Houston and unlikely to get the job done. If all of Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, and Buffalo are losers, Oakland picks it up with a win otherwise the Colts keep it.
Things are not quite as interesting in the NFC. The Cardinals travel to Green Bay, and the winner gets one of the wild card spots. Minnesota travels to Seattle, and they maintain the #5 seed with either a win or an Arizona win in the above match up. If neither of those happen, the Seahawks take over the #6 seed.
And so, the games in week 9 with the biggest playoff picture impact are:
- Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers
- Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
- Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
- Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants
- Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Winner is in. Loser is out. Green Bay moves up to #5 with a win and a Minnesota loss.
One of these teams will be a wild card team after week 9 and one won't. That team will be Seattle if they and Green Bay both win.
Winner is in. Loser needs help. Indianapolis need a lot more help than Miami.
Pittsburgh is in with a win. New York moves down to the #4 seed with a loss. Giants move up to #2 with a win and a Bears loss.
Houston maintains at least a one game lead for the top spot with a win. Buffalo could get into the picture with a win and help.
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