NFL Playoff Picture: Week Eight

Very little activity in the playoff picture in week eight as only one team entered (Indianapolis) and exited (San Diego). Next week may also be quite calm. As always, the following analysis is based on calculating any un-played games as ties.

Starting off with the AFC, the Patriots throttled the Rams in England to maintain the lead in the East. The Dolphins also won to remain a half game behind. Up North, the Ravens were off on a bye but still held onto the lead. The Steelers won a big game against the Redskins to pull within a game of Baltimore. Similar story in the South, where the Texans were off but are still on top. Their closest competitor, the Colts, won but are two games back. And out West, the Broncos knocked off the Saints in an important Sunday Night Football game, and now have a one game lead over the Chargers (who lost to the Browns!) and Raiders (victorious over the Chiefs).

The Wild Card spots come down to a three-way tie between the aforementioned Dolphins, Steelers, and Colts. Miami takes the top spot via tiebreakers by having the best conference record of the three. Indianapolis gets the nod over Pittsburgh for the same reason.

The divisonal rankings in the AFC are easy to calculate as none of the teams are tied. As such, the current order is Houston, Baltimore, New England, and Denver. The AFC Playoff Pictures currently looks like:

Switching over to the NFC, the Giants won a wild one against the Cowboys this past weekend to extend their lead in the East. They now control a 2.5 game lead over both Philadelphia and Dallas. In the North, the Bears hit a last second field goal to best the Panthers. They now are 1.5 games up on both the Vikings and the Packers. Down South, the Falcons remained perfect by defeating the Eagles and control a massive four game lead over the Buccaneers. The 49ers defeated their division rivals, the Cardinals, to maintain the lead in the West. San Francisco has a two game lead over Arizona and Seattle.

The NFC wild card positions both are still in the North going to the only 5-3 teams: Minnesota and Green Bay. The Vikings currently get the #5 seed based on having a better record in common games.

Atlanta and Chicago are #1 and #2 in the NFC respectively based on record. New York and San Francisco are tied at 6-2, and since the Giants have the head-to-head victory, they get the #3. The NFC Playoff Picture current is:

All of the divisional leaders are "safe" for next week (meaning that all eight will still be tops in their division after week 9 regardless of outcomes). The current AFC wild card teams are facing off this coming week, and the winner will take the #5 seed. The loser could keep the #6 with help. That help starts with the Steelers: if the Steelers can beat the Giants, they will grab the #6 seed. If Pittsburgh falters, a win by San Diego in Thursday Night Football over the Chiefs will give the Chargers the spot. If they both lose, Miami will remain a wild card even with a loss. Next in line for the opportunity is the Bills, but they're on the road in Houston and unlikely to get the job done. If all of Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, and Buffalo are losers, Oakland picks it up with a win otherwise the Colts keep it.

Things are not quite as interesting in the NFC. The Cardinals travel to Green Bay, and the winner gets one of the wild card spots. Minnesota travels to Seattle, and they maintain the #5 seed with either a win or an Arizona win in the above match up. If neither of those happen, the Seahawks take over the #6 seed.

And so, the games in week 9 with the biggest playoff picture impact are:

1. Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers

Winner is in. Loser is out. Green Bay moves up to #5 with a win and a Minnesota loss.

2. Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

One of these teams will be a wild card team after week 9 and one won't. That team will be Seattle if they and Green Bay both win.

3. Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Winner is in. Loser needs help. Indianapolis need a lot more help than Miami.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants

Pittsburgh is in with a win. New York moves down to the #4 seed with a loss. Giants move up to #2 with a win and a Bears loss.

5. Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Houston maintains at least a one game lead for the top spot with a win. Buffalo could get into the picture with a win and help.

Four Bridges: My First Half Marathon

After all the training and time off to recover from the hamstring injury, it was finally time for the Four Bridges Half Marathon. The questions rattling around in my brain would be answered. Would I be able to run the full 13.1 miles having only done a long run of 11 miles in my training? Would my hamstring issues hamper the run or would I make it the full distance without any issues?

The weather was good for running a half marathon: cool, but not too cool. There were a lot of runners there (not surprising, as there were a lot of people at packet pickup the previous day). The runner were divided into 3 waves, and I (also not surprising) was part of the final wave. The waves were spaced 5 minutes apart, and we got off on time at 8:10.

As I tend to, I started off a touch fast. I kept telling myself to slow it down, but I'm not sure that I really followed through on that. As has been becoming common for me, my second mile was faster than the first (although just by five seconds). I ran each of the first seven miles in less than ten minutes leading me to believe that I'd beat an overall average of 10 minutes per mile. I finished the eighth mile in 10:04, but as I saw the "8 Mile" sign, I started to feel a bit of stress in my right hamstring.

At this point, the hamstring was mostly just a minor annoyance, and I completed the ninth mile in 10:02. Things got a bit more worrisome in the tenth mile, and I started to mentally calculate how much farther I'd have to run before I could walk the rest of the way and still make the 2:45 cutoff.

When I hit the tenth mile marker, I took a more positive attitude and just keep repeating "three miles to go" in my head (thankfully at this point, I was pretty worn out and was able to stay mentally occupied without going crazy by doing this). I gave up another 23 seconds on the 11th mile (I ran it in 10:23 compared to the desired 10:00). My 12th and 13th miles both fell off from pace, but I'm glad to say taht I didn't stop and walk at any point. When I crossed the finish line at around 2:11:30, I knew I didn't hit my goal but was glad that I got close.

Based on the unofficial results, I missed my 10 minutes per mile goal by 29 seconds:

It is interesting to note that my Garmin watch told a slightly different story regarding my pace (the timings from above were based on the Garmin): the showed my overall pace at 9:56 but that I had ran 13.25 miles (0.15 miles beyond the expected 13.1).

So what's my take-away from this? For 5Ks and 10Ks, it may not matter as much how wide I take corners, but over the course of a half marathon, it certainly does. If I had cut off just 1/3 of the extra, I would have finished just under 2:11 and hit my goal. Definitely something for me to keep in mind if I'm insane enough to tackle another half marathon (which I likely will).

And so now, I'm left with different questions. The aforementioned, am I insane enough to do this again as well as when will my muscles recover from this one?

My Where's George Week in Review: 10/21/12 - 10/27/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 29 hits in 8 States [AZ², CA¹⁷, IL², MD, NE², NM, NV, WA³]. I still have hits in 44 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 472 counties with 2 new this week: Morgan IL, Washington NE.

Of those 29 hits, 2 were the 3^rd hit on the bill, 2 were the 2^nd hit on the bill, and the rest (25) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 3 Years 346 Days 6 Hours 55 Minutes after I originally entered it. That bill is currently my 7th longest active.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
21	22	23	24	25	26	27
6	4	4	3	4	7	1

Adding all seven days from this week increases my hit streak to 21 days.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, it was another good week for all three stats:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	21930	22057	127	5337	21720	95.6	20832	+31	+1225
Bills with Hits	2430	3461	3486	25	1056	3445	19.4	3265	+6	+221
Total Hits	2799	4032	4061	29	1262	4030	23.5	3811	+5	+250

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.44% [+1.15%].

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	19164	19286	122	4859	18959	115.1	19264	+7	+22
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6490 entries this year rather than 5000						20259	114.1	19223	+8	+63

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, 2009 continues to add greatly to its lead:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3846	3852	6	249		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	58	2418	+7	+596
2009	1339	4531	4602	71	3263		Actual	65	3014

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", there wasn't a lot of change this week, but five of the seven slightly moved in the wrong direction:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	10479	47.78%	10543	47.80%	< 50.0%	49.94%	11002	+459
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	752	3.43%	758	3.44%	> 2.8%	2.85%	631	+127
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	775	3.53%	777	3.52%	> 2.4%	2.45%	542	+235
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	710	3.24%	714	3.24%	> 2.3%	2.35%	520	+194
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	636	2.90%	637	2.89%	> 2.2%	2.25%	497	+140
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	594	2.71%	595	2.70%	> 2.1%	2.15%	475	+120
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	548	2.50%	550	2.49%	> 1.7%	1.75%	387	+163

It was a respectable week of hits. While October won't challenge the record for most hits in a month, it's now unlikely to end at as the worst month for hits in 2012.

NFL Playoff Picture: Week Seven

Just a little bit of shuffling in the playoff picture this week: one new team on each side and one new divisional leader from each conference. As always, the following analysis is based on calculating any un-played games as ties.

Starting off with the AFC, the Patriots have emerged as the divisional leader by being the only team above .500. Up North, the Ravens still have the lead but suffered a massive defeat at the hands of the Texans. Regardless, they still have a game and a half lead over the Steelers. Down South, the aforementioned Texans improved their position by routing the Ravens. And out West, the Broncos and Chargers were both off, so Denver remains on top.

As for the AFC wild card, there are four teams tie with 3-3 records (one from each division): Miami, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and San Diego. The Chargers take the #5 seed via best conference record. The Dolphins have the current claim to the #6 for the same reason.

All of the AFC's divisional leaders have different records, so ordering them is pretty straightforward. Here's how the AFC playoff picture currently looks:

As for the NFC, the Giants maintained the lead in the East by knocking off the Redskins. The Bears still hold a half game lead over the Vikings in the North as both won this week. The 6-0 Falcons had the week off and still rein supreme in the South: their closest competition (the Saints and Buccaneers) are both 4 games back. Out west, the 49ers took over the divisional lead by defeating the Seahawks although the Cardinals loss certainly didn't hurt.

As for the wild card, the Vikings have the best non-division leading record in the league to control the #5 seed. The second wild card comes down to the Packers and Cardinals (Arizona and Seattle have the same record, but the Cardinals get the nod based on head-to-head record). Green Bay gets the spot based on conference record.

The top two spots in the NFC are decided by record: Atlanta has the top spot followed by Chicago. New York and San Francisco have the same record, but the Giants beat the Niners, and so they get the #3 seed. Thus, the NFC playoff picture currently looks as such:

The Texans and Ravens are locked in for next week's picture. The remaining spots will go to four of the Patriots, Broncos, Chargers, Dolphins, Colts, Steelers, Jets, and Titans. On the NFC side, things are more locked up as the Giants, Bears, Falcons, 49ers, and Vikings are all locks for next week leaving just one spot open which will be claimed either by the Cardinals, Seahawks, Packers, Cowboys, or Eagles.

The games in week 8 with the biggest playoff picture impact are:

1. San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Winner takes the lead in the West. Niners maintain in the playoff picture regardless. Cardinals have to win to get in. Arizona winning would lock in the NFC's playoff picture, but thankfully, this is the Monday night game.

2. Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Miami keeps their wild card spot with a win, and overtakes the lead in the East with a win and a Patriot loss. New York could claim a wild card spot with a win and help.

3. Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

The winner could take over a wild card spot in the AFC with help. The Colts have a better shot than the Titans with a win.

4. New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

The Giants get the opportunity to avenge their loss in the first game of the season. Regardless of the outcome, New York keeps the lead in the East. Dallas took grab a wild card spot with a win, but they'll need help.

5. Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles

Falcons maintain the division lead regardless, but could drop from the #1 seed with a loss and a Chicago win. The Eagles have an outside chance at moving into a wild card spot with a win but would need a lot of help (even more than Dallas).

Four Bridges Half Marathon Training: Week Six

Just a week to go until the Four Bridges Half Marathon and my worst fear was realized: I've suffered an injury, and I'm concerned that I'm going to have to pass on running the half marathon.

On what was meant to be a six mile run on Tuesday, I felt a cramp in my right hamstring and stopped just short of three miles in. I had figured that it was just a one day soreness (from running too soon after the GPTW run on Sunday) and expected it to disappear by the time I played tennis on Thursday. But that was not the case. A few points into the doubles match, the hamstring cramped up, and my mobility was limited. My hopes for running the half marathon were starting to disappear.

Taking a look at what little I ran compared to what was recommended, it's easy to see that I was pretty short on miles this week:

	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun
	Oct 15	Oct 16	Oct 17	Oct 18	Oct 19	Oct 20	Oct 21
4BHM Plan	7.0	5.0		6.0		12.0
Actual		3.00		Tennis

Plan Mileage: 30.0
Actual Mileage: 3.00

I'm still not positive that the hamstring will be healed by next Sunday. I've been putting heat on it, stretching it, and then icing it in an attempt to expedite the healing. So far, I'm not sure that it's been helping. The one thing I do know is that I won't be following the Four Bridges Beginner Training Plan for this final week:

Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun
5.0	3.0		3.0			13.1

Plan Mileage: 24.1

I'd like to get out and do at least a mile before Sunday to get some faith in the hamstring, but I won't attempt anything until it feels fine. If that doesn't happen in the next week, I'm not sure how I'm going to determine whether or not to go for it.

My Where's George Week in Review: 10/14/12 - 10/20/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 28 hits in 7 States [AZ, CA²¹, CO², NV, OR, TX, WA]. I still have hits in 44 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 470 counties with none new this week.

Of those 28 hits, 6 were the 2^nd hit on the bill and the rest (22) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 2 Years 196 Days 11 Hours 33 Minutes after I originally entered it.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
14	15	16	17	18	19	20
3	4	2	6	3	5	5

With the 7 days of hits this week, my hit streak is now at 14 days.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, this week I surpassed the predicted number of bills with hits and total hits for the year. So from here on, every hit will be beyond what I expected to get at the beginning of the year. When hits come in slowly, I'll have to keep that in mind.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	21844	21930	86	5210	21720	95.6	20736	-10	+1194
Bills with Hits	2430	3439	3461	22	1031	3445	19.4	3245	+3	+216
Total Hits	2799	4004	4032	28	1233	4030	23.5	3788	+4	+244

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.39% [+1.10%]. It was a pretty even week for this goal mostly because it was the first week in a while where I needed to enter some twenties.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	19086	19164	78	4737	18959	78	19149	+0	+15
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6486 entries this year rather than 5000						20256	77.3	19109	+1	+55

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, series 2009 continues to have it's lead extended:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3843	3846	3	243		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	39	2360	+7	+589
2009	1339	4482	4531	49	3192		Actual	46	2949

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", most are continuing to go in the desired direction although Boston and Philadelphia took small steps backwards:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	10444	47.81%	10479	47.78%	< 50.0%	49.94%	10943	+464
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	751	3.44%	752	3.43%	> 2.8%	2.85%	627	+125
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	767	3.51%	775	3.53%	> 2.4%	2.45%	539	+236
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	707	3.24%	710	3.24%	> 2.3%	2.35%	516	+194
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	636	2.91%	636	2.90%	> 2.2%	2.25%	494	+142
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	594	2.72%	594	2.71%	> 2.1%	2.15%	472	+122
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	547	2.50%	548	2.50%	> 1.7%	1.75%	385	+163

It was an okay week for hits. Nothing spectacular, but there was nothing to be disappointment about.

NFL Playoff Picture: Week Six

There was a lot more activity in the playoff picture this week than last: 5 divisional leads changed hands with 3 new teams in the picture overall. As always, the following analysis is based on calculating any un-played games as ties.

Starting off in the AFC, there's a big bottleneck in the East with all four teams posting a 3-3 record. The Jets currently get the nod based on their 2-0 divisional record. Moving onto the North, the Ravens maintain the top spot and have a two game lead on the Bengals (as well as a head-to-head victory). In the South, the Texans lost their perfect record but control a 2.5 game lead over the Colts. And in the West, with their record breaking Monday Night Football comeback, the Broncos took over control based on their head-to-head victory over the Chargers.

As for the wild card, five teams are tied at 3-3 (three of those from the East). The Patriots get divisional tiebreaker in the East, and go up against the Bengals and Chargers for the first spot. The Bengals get eliminated due to a poorer conference record before the Patriots claim the #5 spot due to a better record in common games than the Chargers. The Dolphins then best the Bills for the second divisional tiebreaker in the East, but then the Chargers best both the Dolphins and Bengals in regards to conference record and grab hold of the #6 seed.

As for the division leaders, the Texans and Ravens are tied at the top while the Broncos and Jets are tied for third. The Texans take the top spot based on a better conference record. The Broncos jump the Jets based on common games making the AFC playoff picture look as such:

Moving onto the NFC, the Giants have overtaken the Eagles for the top spot in the East. The Vikings loss moves the Bears atop the North by a half game. The 6-0 Falcons have a stranglehold on the South with a commanding 3.5 game lead over the Buccaneers. And out West, there's a three way tie between the Cardinals, 49ers, and Seahawks. Arizona gets the nod based on head-to-head record.

The wild card spots come down to the 49ers, Seahawks, and Vikings. The 49ers currently have the divisional tiebreaker in the West based on divisional record. The Vikings have beaten San Francisco which grants them the #5 seed. Thus the 49ers currently control the #6.

Atlanta and Chicago have the top two positions based on record. Arizona and New York are tied for third, and the Cardinals get the tiebreaker edge based on common games. So here's the NFC playoff picture:

The Texans, Ravens, and Broncos are all locked into being part of the week seven AFC playoff picture. Other than those teams, all the teams from the East, the Bengals, and the Chargers have a chance to have a spot. In the NFC, the Falcons and Bears are a lock. The other four spots are up for grabs between 8 teams (New York, Washington, Green Bay, Minnesota, and all four teams from the West).

The games in week 7 with the biggest playoff picture impact are:

1. New York Jets at New England Patriots

Winner is tops in the East. Loser falls outside of the playoff picture. This is the only game this week where a current playoff team will definitely get knocked out of the picture.

2. Washington Redskins at New York Giants

Winner will be tops in the NFC East. With quite a bit of help, the Giants could be the #6 seed with a loss.

3. Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

Winner is in. Loser is out. With a win, the Niners retake the divisional lead regardless of what Arizona does. The Seahawks get the divisional lead with a win and a Cardinal loss.

4. Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings

Arizona maintains their spot with a win only. Minnesota could stick around as a wild card with a loss, but it's unlikely. Both need help to have the divisional lead with a win (Arizona needs a San Francisco loss; the Vikings need the Bears to lose).

5. Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans

Winner takes a one game lead plus the head-to-head advantage for the AFC #1 seed.

6. Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams

Rams take the #6 seed with a win. Packers can take that same spot with a win and some help.

Four Bridges Half Marathon Training: Week Five

Just two more weeks to go until the Four Bridges Half Marathon. That's the key point I need to keep in mind for the next two weeks in regards to training. This week was the first that I did less miles than planned, but the long run is the important one, and I exceeded the needed miles for that one:

	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun
	Oct 08	Oct 09	Oct 10	Oct 11	Oct 12	Oct 13	Oct 14
4BHM Plan	6.0	3.0		5.0	3.0	10.0
Actual	6.25	3.35			11.00		3.11

Plan Mileage: 27.0
Actual Mileage: 23.71

As you can see, I skipped out on a 5 mile run. I had intend to do that run on Wednesday, but after the 6 miler on Monday, my right heel was a bit tender and both of my knees were a bit sore. After the three miles on Tuesday, neither of these problems went away, and so I decided to skip out on Wednesday to have a better chance to heal by Friday. My heel and knees are definitely feeling better, but I'll have to pay attention to them over the next two weeks.

Based on the Four Bridges Beginner Training Plan, this is what I'd run in the upcoming week:

Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun
7.0	5.0		6.0		12.0

Plan Mileage: 30.0

I have tennis on Thursday, so at a minimum, I'll have to make an adjustment for that. Based on the prior week, I think it's unlike that I'll do the full 30 miles ... more likely I'll run the long run of 12 miles and then a couple of 6 milers. But we'll see how it goes. I'm much more interested in completing the 12 miler and finishing the week without much pain than finishing the full 30.

Intel GPTW 5K: Another New Personal Record

This morning my employer held their annual Great Place to Work 5K which is only planned 5K for the year. At the start of the year, I set a goal of completing a 5K in under 27 minutes, so this was going to be my only shot (although if I failed, it's possible I'd sign up for another to get another chance).

The weather was pretty good for the run. The course was similar to last year's: starts off downhill and then switches to a gradual climb before the midway point and then finished with a flat "hidden" half mile (I say hidden since you run past the start line a bit, turn-around, and then head for the finish. Last year, I wasn't expecting the "hidden" part. This year I was ready.).

I started strong and finished the first mile in 7:40. It wasn't long after the turnaround (which started the uphill climb) that I started to feel the climbing in my calves. Regardless, I finished the second mile in 8:20, and at 16 minutes for the first two miles, I was well on my way to a new 5K personal records. I didn't catch the time as I crossed the 3 mile marker, but I crossed the finish line at around 25:30, and at that point, I knew that I demolished my previous PR by almost 2 minutes.

The official results clocked me in at 25:33. I'm not sure if that chip time or gun time, but regardless, I'll take it:

Back-to-back personal records is nice (Run for Courage 10K along with today's). I'll make it three in a row at the Four Bridges Half Marathon, but that one's a bit cheaper since it'll be my first half.

Today was my first run using my new Garmin 210 watch. Previously, I had used an app on my iPhone to track distance, time, and pace. I can already tell that I'm going to enjoy using the watch more.

My Where's George Week in Review: 10/07/12 - 10/13/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 29 hits in 8 States [CA²¹, HI, IA, IL², KS, NC, UT, WA]. I still have hits in 44 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 470 counties with 3 new this week: Polk IA, Rush KS, Jones NC.

Of those 29 hits, 1 was the 3^rd hit on the bill, 2 were the 2^nd hit on the bill, and the rest (26) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 4 Years 200 Days 0 Hours 22 Minutes after I originally entered it making it my all-time longest active bill beating my previous best by 144 days.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
07	08	09	10	11	12	13
1	5	4	6	7	2	4

A week full of hits starts a new hit streak off with 7 days.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, it was a pretty good week. Additionally, I got my 4000^th hit this past week.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	21752	21844	92	5124	21720	95.6	20641	-4	+1203
Bills with Hits	2430	3413	3439	26	1009	3445	19.4	3226	+7	+213
Total Hits	2799	3975	4004	29	1205	4030	23.5	3764	+5	+240

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.37% [+1.08%]. I'm starting to build up a nice buffer for the rest of the year.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	18997	19086	89	4659	18959	83.4	19071	+6	+15
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6535 entries this year rather than 5000						20299	82.7	19031	+6	+55

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, this has been completed for a few weeks.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3836	3843	7	240		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	42	2321	-4	+582
2009	1339	4437	4482	45	3143		Actual	38	2903

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", most went in the desired direction (Boston and Minneapolis being the excepts). I'm done inserting bills, so now we'll see how these numbers hold up:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	10404	47.83%	10444	47.81%	< 50.0%	49.94%	10903	+459
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	751	3.45%	751	3.44%	> 2.8%	2.85%	624	+127
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	762	3.50%	767	3.51%	> 2.4%	2.45%	536	+231
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	705	3.24%	707	3.24%	> 2.3%	2.35%	514	+193
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	634	2.91%	636	2.91%	> 2.2%	2.25%	492	+144
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	594	2.73%	594	2.72%	> 2.1%	2.15%	470	+124
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	544	2.50%	547	2.50%	> 1.7%	1.75%	383	+164

This week was a nice week for hits especially given last week. Getting my new all-time longest active plus my 4000^{th hit helped add to the excitement of the week.}

NFL Playoff Picture: Week Five

The 5th week of the NFL season is in the books, and there wasn't a lot of change to the playoff picture from last week. A couple of division leaders changed, but just one new team entered/exited the picture this week.

Starting off in the AFC, the Patriots have taken over the lead in the East and currently have a one game lead over all three of their rivals. The Ravens continue to lead the North and now lead the Bengals by one game as well as a head-to-head victory albeit a home win. The perfect 5-0 Texans lead the South, and their closest competition is the newly .500 Colts. Out West the Chargers hold a one game lead on the Broncos whom they host this upcoming week.

As for the wild cards, the Bengals still hold onto the 5 seed even with a loss since none of the other non-division leaders have a 3-2 record or better. The second spot comes down to the Indianapolis Colts and the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Steelers get the nod based on a better record in common games.

The AFC divisional leaders all have different records except for the Patriots and Chargers, and the Chargers currently get the nod by having the better conference record. And so, the AFC playoff picture currently looks as such:

Moving on to the NFC, the Eagles maintained their lead in the East but only by controlling the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Giants. The Vikings are still tops in the North staying ahead of the Bears based on divisional record. The perfect Falcons are tops in the South where the rest of the teams in the division only have one win a piece. And in the West, the 49ers took over the lead when Arizona lost due to having a better record in common games.

The two wild card spots are easy to identify as there are two NFC teams with 4-1 records that aren't divisional leaders: the Arizona Cardinals and the Chicago Bears. The Cardinals currently have the #5 seed based on strength of victory.

The only tie between divisional leaders on the NFC side is between Minnesota and San Francisco, and since the Vikings have beaten the Niners this season, they get the higher seed:

Five AFC teams have the possibility of moving into the playoff picture after next week's games. That is only true for three of the NFC teams currently on the outside looking in. Only the Texans, Ravens, Falcons, and Bears (thanks to a bye week) are guaranteed to be around next week. The Texans and Ravens are even guaranteed to maintain their current positions.

With that said, the top games in week 6 based on playoff picture implications are:

1. Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

This game determines who currently has the lead in the West. The Chargers could still maintain a wild card spot on a loss.

2. New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers

The Giants claim the lead in the East if they win and the Eagles lose. Otherwise they likely take over a wild card spot. San Francisco keeps the divisional lead with a win, could keep it with a loss, and if not, has an outside change of maintaining a wild card spot.

3. Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets

The winner of this game puts themselves in position to take a wild card spot if either of the Bengals or Steelers stumble. The Jets could also retake the lead in the East with a win and a Patriots loss.

4. St. Louis Rams @ Miami Dolphins

The Rams need to win first, but if they do, a loss by either the Vikings or Cardinals or both the 49ers and Eagles, and the Rams claim a wild card spot. A loss by both San Francisco and Arizona, and St. Louis takes over the divisional lead. Miami needs a lot of help, but with a win and a number of other teams losing, the Dolphins could find themselves in the #6 seed.

5. Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals

The Bills need even more help than the Dolphins to get into the picture, but it is possible. With a win, the Cardinals maintain at least their #5 spot and will overtake the divisional lead with a 49ers loss.

6. Chicago Bears Bye Week

If the Vikings lose, the Bears will take over the lead in the North. Otherwise, the Bears will maintain at least the #6 seed and could move up to #5.

Four Bridges Half Marathon Training: Week Four

With week four of training in the books, I'm now just three weeks away from the Four Bridges Half Marathon. I completed my longest run of the year yesterday beating my previous long (from July) by a twentieth of a mile. More impressively, I finished 10 minutes faster than I did in that run in July. Further proof that all of this training is making me a stronger runner.

With that said, here's my weekly mileage compared to the Four Bridges training plan:

	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun
	Oct 01	Oct 02	Oct 03	Oct 04	Oct 05	Oct 06	Oct 07
4BHM Plan	6.0	3.0		4.0	3.0	8.0
Actual	7.00	4.20	4.70	Tennis		9.15

Plan Mileage: 24.0
Actual Mileage: 25.05

With as well as things have gone so far, I do have to keep in mind a half marathon is still four miles longer than my long run of the week. I'll add at least an additional mile to that in the upcoming week. Speaking of which, here's the Four Bridges suggested plan for the upcoming week:

Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun
6.0	3.0		5.0	3.0	10.0

Plan Mileage: 27.0

I'll be making a good deal of alternations to the plan this week. For starters, there's a 5K at work on Sunday, so I'll be moving Friday's 3 miles to Sunday. I'd like a day of rest before racing that 5K since I'd like to try to beat not only my 5K PR but also 27:00, so I'll do the long run on Friday instead of Saturday. To get enough rest for Friday, I'll move Thursday's run to Wednesday. There's a chance of rain on Monday, but hopefully it won't be enough to affect my plan.

The schedule I'm taking on for this week will likely result in me needing to make adjustments to the following week of running also. But we'll worry about that once I get through this week.

My Where's George Week in Review: 09/30/12 - 10/06/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 17 hits in 3 States [AL, CA¹⁵, PA]. This ties my worst week for hits in 2012. I still have hits in 44 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 467 counties with 3 new this week: Madison AL, Alpine CA, Chester PA.

Of those 17 hits, 1 was the 3^rd hit on the bill and the rest (16) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 3 Years 188 Days 11 Hours 10 Minutes after I originally entered it which is good for 8th longest all-time.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
30	01	02	03	04	05	06
5	0	3	3	0	6	0

Coming into October, I only had 6 hit-less days this year. 6 days into October, and I've already added another 3. Things are not looking good for October hit-wise.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, it wasn't a good week for any of these stats, but I'm still well ahead of prediction:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	21677	21752	75	5032	21720	95.6	20545	-21	+1207
Bills with Hits	2430	3397	3413	16	983	3445	19.4	3207	-3	+206
Total Hits	2799	3958	3975	17	1176	4030	23.5	3741	-7	+234

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.33% [+1.04%].

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	18924	18997	73	4570	18959	68	18988	+5	+9
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6578 entries this year rather than 5000						20336	67.4	18947	+6	+50

As for the completed goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, 2009 continues to add to its lead:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3835	3836	1	233		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	34	2279	+22	+586
2009	1339	4380	4437	57	3098		Actual	56	2865

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", most continued to move in the right direction this week (Cleveland and Philadelphia slightly went the wrong way). I'll finishing up my lower FRB bill insertions early this upcoming week, and then we'll see how this all plays out.

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	10373	47.85%	10404	47.83%	< 50.0%	49.94%	10861	+457
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	746	3.44%	751	3.45%	> 2.8%	2.85%	621	+130
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	760	3.51%	762	3.50%	> 2.4%	2.45%	534	+228
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	700	3.23%	705	3.24%	> 2.3%	2.35%	512	+193
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	632	2.92%	634	2.91%	> 2.2%	2.25%	490	+144
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	589	2.72%	594	2.73%	> 2.1%	2.15%	468	+126
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	540	2.49%	544	2.50%	> 1.7%	1.75%	382	+162

There's really not much positive to say about this past week.