It's been a little while (almost a couple months actually) since I last posted my picks and analysis. Not sure if today's post is a sign that I'll get back to posting them regularly but hopefully so.
| Bantamweight Match [UFC149-01] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card / Main Event / Interim Championship | |||||||
| Urijah Faber | Renan Barao | ||||||
| BW #3 / 234 points | BW #5 / 182 points | ||||||
| 26 - 5 - 0 | 28 - 1 - 0 (1 NC) | ||||||
| Wins: 7 (T)KO, 14 Sub, 4 Dec, 1 Other | Wins: 6 (T)KO, 13 Sub, 9 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 21.97 | Win Points: 23.38 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.39:1 | 1.70:1 | 5.94:1 | Payout: | 4.43:1 | 2.05:1 | 2.96:1 |
| Max Bet: | 4.18 | 14.28 | 2.02 | Max Bet: | 2.91 | 9.52 | 5.10 |
The first of many difficult picks. In the end, I'm going with Faber. Looking at the recent fights for both, Faber has the more impressive in his victories. Although Barao hasn't lost in quite some time, Faber's losses have come by decision in title fights. With Barao's inability to finish lesser opponents in three rounds, I'm concerned he won't be able to finish or outpoint Urijah.
| Middleweight Match [UFC149-02] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card / Co-Main Event | |||||||
| Hector Lombard | Tim Boetsch | ||||||
| MW #6 / 327 points | MW #9 / 276 points | ||||||
| 31 - 2 - 1 (1 NC) | 15 - 4 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 17 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 7 Dec | Wins: 7 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 3 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 19.27 | Win Points: 20.10 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.73:1 | 4.21:1 | 4.21:1 | Payout: | 2.04:1 | 2.85:1 | 4.75:1 |
| Max Bet: | 13.69 | 3.11 | 3.11 | Max Bet: | 9.61 | 5.40 | 2.66 |
It is another tough pick for me. Lombard has had quite the impressive career although the caliber of his opposition hasn't been that great as of late. Boetsch has been quite impressive since moving down to middleweight and wasn't bad as a light heavyweight. He needed a third round knockout to defeat Yushin Okami, and he got it. I don't think he's going to be able to rally from behind this time, and Lombard will impress in his UFC debut.
| Heavyweight Match [UFC149-03] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card | |||||||
| Cheick Kongo | Shawn Jordan | ||||||
| HW #18 / 121 points | HW #73 / 46 points | ||||||
| 17 - 7 - 2 | 13 - 3 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 10 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec | Wins: 9 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 1 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 14.81 | Win Points: 18.36 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.62:1 | 5.38:1 | 4.04:1 | Payout: | 1.37:1 | 4.12:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 14.81 | 2.28 | 3.28 | Max Bet: | 18.36 | 3.20 | 1.53 |
I think this fight really comes down to Kongo's performance. His last seven fights (where he has gone 3-3-1) have be shaky at best. I've flip-flopped on my pick a few times now, but in the end, I think Jordan will use Kongo as a stepping stone on his way up.
| Welterweight Match [UFC149-04] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card | |||||||
| Brian Ebersole | James Head | ||||||
| WW #17 / 238 points | WW #61 / 95 points | ||||||
| 50 - 14 - 1 (1 NC) | 8 - 2 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 14 (T)KO, 20 Sub, 16 Dec | Wins: 4 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 1 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 15.20 | Win Points: 18.68 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.39:1 | 2.38:1 | 2.97:1 | Payout: | 1.90:1 | 2.53:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 4.18 | 7.24 | 5.07 | Max Bet: | 11.11 | 6.53 | 1.53 |
It's rare for a fighter to have had 50 fights let alone 50 wins. Ebersole has won all four of his UFC fights and 11 in a row overall. Head is 1-1 in the UFC with his loss coming to Nick Ring (more on him later). Ebersole keeps his win streak rolling.
| Welterweight Match [UFC149-05] | |||||||
| PPV / Main Card | |||||||
| Chris Clements | Matt Riddle | ||||||
| WW #73 / 87 points | WW #132 / 61 points | ||||||
| 11 - 4 - 0 | 6 - 3 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 10 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 1 Dec | Wins: 1 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 4 Dec, 1 Other | ||||||
| Win Points: 12.19 | Win Points: 13.30 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 1.05:1 | 7.50:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 4.75:1 | 7.50:1 | 1.19:1 |
| Max Bet: | 12.19 | 1.53 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 2.66 | 1.53 | 13.30 |
I don't know what it is, but I strongly dislike Matt Riddle. In his last fight, he barely beat a guy from two classes below him. He's talentless and needs to be sent packing from the UFC. Chris Clements is the man for that job.
| Middleweight Match [UFC149-06] | |||||||
| FX | |||||||
| Nick Ring | Court McGee | ||||||
| MW #40 / 108 points | MW #55 / 90 points | ||||||
| 12 - 1 - 0 | 14 - 2 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 2 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 4 Dec | Wins: 3 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 4 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 10.07 | Win Points: 10.54 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 5.70:1 | 1.90:1 | 2.85:1 | Payout: | 4.43:1 | 1.90:1 | 3.33:1 |
| Max Bet: | 2.12 | 10.07 | 5.40 | Max Bet: | 2.91 | 10.54 | 4.29 |
I was going to pick Ring to win this one since Court is a TUF alum, but then I noticed that Nick's nickname is "The Promise" (as in the promise ring). I realize that the nickname won't affect the fight, but I can't pick someone with one so lame.
| Bantamweight Match [UFC149-07] | |||||||
| FX | |||||||
| Roland Delorme | Francisco Rivera | ||||||
| BW #43 / 65 points | BW #67 / 52 points | ||||||
| 8 - 1 - 0 | 8 - 2 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 2 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 0 Dec | Wins: 5 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 3 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 9.55 | Win Points: 10.09 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.80:1 | 1.27:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 1.52:1 | 7.50:1 | 2.53:1 |
| Max Bet: | 3.57 | 9.55 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 10.09 | 1.53 | 6.53 |
Delorme has the higher ranking, the slightly better record, and an additional fight/win in the UFC. Since I don't much about either, that's enough to get my pick.
| Light Heavyweight Match [UFC149-08] | |||||||
| FX | |||||||
| Ryan Jimmo | Anthony Perosh | ||||||
| LHW #17 / 165 points | LHW #33 / 104 points | ||||||
| 16 - 1 - 0 | 13 - 6 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 6 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 8 Dec | Wins: 4 (T)KO, 9 Sub, 0 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 11.68 | Win Points: 13.07 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.53:1 | 7.50:1 | 1.90:1 | Payout: | 3.09:1 | 1.37:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 6.53 | 1.53 | 11.11 | Max Bet: | 4.78 | 13.07 | 1.53 |
Jimmo is on a 16 fight win streak, although 6 of his last 7 wins have been by decision. That is a bad sign for a guy who has yet to fight in the UFC in my opinion. Perosh is getting old, but his career is making a bit of a comeback after dropping to 205. Perosh's last 11 fights haven't gone to a decision, and only 2 of his 19 have. He either finishes or gets finished. Jimmo's recent track record suggests that he's not going to finish. Thus Jimmo gets finished.
| Bantamweight Match [UFC149-09] | |||||||
| FX | |||||||
| Mitch Gagnon | Bryan Caraway | ||||||
| BW #34 / 73 points | FW #80 / 63 points | ||||||
| 8 - 1 - 0 | 16 - 5 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 0 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 0 Dec | Wins: 1 (T)KO, 14 Sub, 1 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 9.70 | Win Points: 9.97 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 7.50:1 | 0.95:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 7.50:1 | 1.09:1 | 7.50:1 |
| Max Bet: | 1.53 | 0.00 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 1.53 | 9.97 | 1.53 |
Both fighters have quite an impressive record when it comes to finishing by submission: all of Gagnon 8 wins were by submission while 14 of Caraway's 16 were (Caraway's only professional (T)KO victory was his first win). Caraway is a former Ultimate Fighter contestant, so you know I have to pick against him. With the impressive submission background of the two, I think it's worth gambling on this one going to decision.
| Featherweight Match [UFC149-10] | |||||||
| N/A | |||||||
| Daniel Pineda | Antonio Carvalho | ||||||
| FW #42 / 85 points | FW #103 / 52 points | ||||||
| 17 - 8 - 0 | 13 - 5 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 6 (T)KO, 11 Sub, 0 Dec | Wins: 6 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 5.77 | Win Points: 6.50 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 2.69:1 | 1.47:1 | 7.50:1 | Payout: | 2.06:1 | 4.12:1 | 3.09:1 |
| Max Bet: | 5.77 | 5.77 | 1.53 | Max Bet: | 6.50 | 3.20 | 4.78 |
None of Pineda's 17 wins have been by decision. Other than a win over Hatsu Hioki, Carvalho's resume doesn't appear all that impressive. I've got to go with the guy who finishes fights.
| Lightweight Match [UFC149-11] | |||||||
| N/A | |||||||
| Anton Kuivanen | Mitch Clarke | ||||||
| LW #74 / 85 points | LW #318 / 34 points | ||||||
| 16 - 5 - 0 | 9 - 1 - 0 | ||||||
| Wins: 4 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 4 Dec | Wins: 1 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 2 Dec | ||||||
| Win Points: 3.64 | Win Points: 4.47 | ||||||
| Outcome Betting | Outcome Betting | ||||||
| (T)KO | Sub | Dec | (T)KO | Sub | Dec | ||
| Payout: | 3.80:1 | 1.90:1 | 3.80:1 | Payout: | 7.50:1 | 1.43:1 | 4.28:1 |
| Max Bet: | 3.57 | 3.64 | 3.57 | Max Bet: | 1.53 | 4.47 | 3.04 |
Both fighters have lost in their only UFC fight, although Kuivanen lost by decision while Clarke was knocked out. Before that, each had a nine fight win streak outside the UFC. Kuivanen has had more experience and theoretically tougher opposition as his ranking is higher. I'll take the man with experience.
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