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Tuesday, May 1, 2012

WG Predictions/Goals/Wishes Update: April

April set a new record for hits demolishing March's record by 10. All in all it was a good month. Here's how everything broke down based on my predictions, goals, and wishes at the start of the year.

  • Predictions
    • 13.66 Bills Entered Per Day
      • I entered 539 bills in April for an average of 17.97 bills per day. This puts the yearly total to 1843 and raises the daily average to 15.23. To hit this goal, I'll have to average 12.89 for the rest of the year. Since I'm well ahead on this goal, and it appears that I'm easily going to surpass this goal, I now predict I'll enter 5500 bills this year. The predictions below will be based on this updated number.
    • 1231 Hits in 2012 / 4030 Overall Hits
      • I got 139 hits in April bringing the yearly total to 507 which is ahead of where I need to be for my 2012 goal. Including the new data from April, the hit prediction program from the original prediction post calculated that I'd get 900 more hits in 2012 (prior to updating the entry prediction to 5500, that number was 853). That would result in 1407 hits in 2012 and 4206 overall. My expected slugging percentage drops to 18.93% (down 0.03%) from last month mostly because the extra bills entered won't pay off until next year. Looking at the non-increase entry amount, I'd have 4159 hits at the end of the year and a 19.15% slugging percentage.
    • 1015 Additional Bills with Hits in 2012 / 3445 Overall Bills with Hits
      • Of the 139 hits, 116 were the initial hit on a bill putting my additional bills with hits in 2012 at 424. Using the output from the prediction program and Excel, I obtained a calculation of 743 more bills with hits (696 if not for the additional 500 entries). That would result in 1167 in 2012 and 3597 overall. That would put my expected hit rate at 16.19% (down 0.01% from last month). Without the additional entries, the prediction is 3550 bills with hits and a 16.34% hit rate.
    • State Bingo Completion
      • Still no new States hit.
    • One Additional California County Hit in 2012 / 53 Counties Hit Overall
      • No new CA counties hit in April.
    • 17 Additional FRB Bingos / 57 FRB Bingos Overall
      • I completed 6 additional FRB bingos in April to put my total to 50. That puts me on pace for 23 in the year which is ahead of where I need to be. With the bills I'm inserting, this one should be a slam dunk.
    • No More Than 13 Hitless Days
      • I had my second hitless day in April. Only two so far this year puts me ahead of where I need to be for this prediction.
    • 80+ Day Hit Streak
      • Completed last month with a 81 day streak. Current streak is at 27 days. Will be a while before I challenge the new record.
  • Goals
    • National Rank Under 1000 in November & December
      • My rank was under 1000 for all of April even approached 900 at one point. I should be in fantastic shape to complete this goal.
    • State Rank Under 75
      • My rank has stayed in the upper 70s for most of the month dipping into the lower 70s for a few days. Seems like I should make this one, but it might be close.
    • $1s Making Up >87.29% of All Entries
      • I ended the month at 86.88% which puts me nearly 60% of the way to this goal. I'm still thinking this one should be a slam dunk.
    • More Series 2009 Entries Than 2003A
      • Lots of progress was made toward this in March, and 2003A's lead is now under 1300. I'm still ahead of pace for this one, and that pace is increasing. This one should be accomplished in 4-5 months.
    • Decrease San Francisco "L" FRB Bills Below 50%
      • The San Francisco percentage is now down to 49.8%. I think it will continue to decrease as my insertion rate is high, and then the key will be whether or not it stays below.
    • Increase Percentage of Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St. Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J" FRB Bills
      • All but Minneapolis are currently above the desired percentage. I'm still working on acquiring all the bills needed. Some are in the mail, but I'm still looking for the second set of "I" bills.
    • 30 Zip Codes with 25+ Entries
      • Still no progress. This one may be harder than I expected to complete.
  • Wishes
    • 5 Hit Bill
      • No five hit bill yet.
    • New Record Month for Hits
      • Completed in January. Broken in March. Broken again in April. New record is 139 hits.
    • Surpass 500 2006 L-L $1 Entries
      • I'm now at 499 with 1 to go. I entered 6 more in April for 18 total this year. This should get completed in May.
    • Surpass 400 Entries with one 2009 FRB/Block Combo and 300 with Another
      • My top 2009 block is now LG with 288 entries with 29 entered in March and 123 total in 2012. LG will definitely surpass 300 and, with a couple more good months, could get to 400. LB is now second with 279 (9 in March, 44 in 2012). LB should likely hit 300. Third is still LF with 248 (17 in March, 53 in 2012). It's questionable whether or not LF will hit 300. No other series 2009 FRB/block combo has reached 200 entries.
    • Complete Non-Star Portions of Series 2003A and 2006 $1 Bingo
      • One more spot knocked off 2006 bingo in April: FJ. I have 6 more spots to go for each bingo. I haven't crossed off a spot on 2003A all year. This one is not going to happen.
    • 4+ Year Active Bill
      • Although I had a record month for hits, I didn't have much success in regards to time active. The longest active bill was re-entered 2 Years 313 Days 18 Hours 5 Minutes after I entered it for my 13th longest active bill. Not getting close on this one.

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