My UFC on FOX 3 Fight Picks

Lightweight Match [FOX3-01]
FOX / Main Card / Main Event
Nate Diaz				Jim Miller
LW #7 / 266 points				LW #8 / 232 points
15 - 7 - 0				21 - 3 - 0
Wins: 3 (T)KO, 10 Sub, 2 Dec				Wins: 3 (T)KO, 12 Sub, 6 Dec
Win Points: 18.84				Win Points: 19.49
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	4.75:1	1.43:1	7.13:1	Payout:	6.65:1	1.66:1	3.33:1
Max Bet:	2.66	18.84	1.63	Max Bet:	1.76	15.15	4.29

My Pick: Jim Miller

Miller has only lost to Ben Henderson, Frankie Edgar, and Gray Maynard. He's faced a number of stiff challenges and only lost to those at the top. I don't think Nate Diaz quite fits that description.

Welterweight Match [FOX3-02]
FOX / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Josh Koscheck				Johny Hendricks
WW #6 / 364 points				WW #7 / 341 points
17 - 5 - 0				12 - 1 - 0
Wins: 5 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 7 Dec				Wins: 7 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 4 Dec
Win Points: 18.62				Win Points: 18.93
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	3.23:1	3.23:1	2.31:1	Payout:	1.63:1	7.50:1	2.85:1
Max Bet:	4.48	4.48	7.63	Max Bet:	15.87	1.53	5.40

My Pick: Johny Hendricks

The "aging" vet versus the up-and-comer. With two highly skilled wrestlers, conventional wisdom is that this one will come down to striking. I think Hendricks is better and more dangerous than Koscheck when standing, and as such, I give him the edge.

Middleweight Match [FOX3-03]
FOX / Main Card
Rousimar Palhares				Alan Belcher
MW #15 / 235 points				MW #17 / 232 points
14 - 3 - 0				17 - 6 - 0
Wins: 1 (T)KO, 10 Sub, 3 Dec				Wins: 8 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 2 Dec
Win Points: 17.10				Win Points: 17.16
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	7.50:1	1.33:1	4.43:1	Payout:	2.02:1	2.31:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	1.53	17.10	2.91	Max Bet:	9.80	7.63	1.53

My Pick: Rousimar Palhares

Palhares is a potential title challenger. Belcher is a mid-pack fighter who's not going to make it to the top. Palhares takes this and continues his climb.

Heavyweight Match [FOX3-04]
FOX / Main Card
Lavar Johnson				Pat Berry
HW #47 / 67 points				HW #50 / 64 points
16 - 5 - 0				7 - 4 - 0
Wins: 14 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 0 Dec				Wins: 6 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 14.09				Win Points: 14.25
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.09:1	7.50:1	7.50:1	Payout:	1.11:1	7.50:1	6.65:1
Max Bet:	14.09	1.53	1.53	Max Bet:	14.25	1.53	1.76

My Pick: Pat Berry

This one was tough to call for me. "Big" Johnson has good knockout power and looks like a tough heavyweight. He doesn't seem to fair well when his level of competition increases. Barry has fought many better than Johnson. He's been competitive in those fights, and I foresee this fight helping move him back towards the top.

Lightweight Match [FOX3-05]
Fuel
Tony Ferguson				Michael Johnson
LW #33 / 136 points				LW #64 / 90 points
13 - 2 - 0				7 - 5 - 0
Wins: 8 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 2 Dec				Wins: 2 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 7.97				Win Points: 8.81
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.54:1	4.12:1	6.18:1	Payout:	3.33:1	1.66:1	6.65:1
Max Bet:	7.97	3.20	1.93	Max Bet:	4.29	8.81	1.76

My Pick: Tony Ferguson

A couple of lame former TUF fighters facing off. Yawn. Ferguson has had more success. I look to see that continue.

Flyweight Match [FOX3-06]
Fuel
Tim Elliott				John Dodson
FLW #7 / 53 points				BW #74 / 48 points
8 - 2 - 1				12 - 5 - 0
Wins: 3 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 1 Dec				Wins: 5 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 5 Dec
Win Points: 9.35				Win Points: 9.49
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.53:1	1.90:1	7.50:1	Payout:	2.28:1	5.70:1	2.28:1
Max Bet:	6.53	9.35	1.53	Max Bet:	7.81	2.12	7.81

My Pick: Tim Elliott

Elliott is more polished and has more experience at 125. Dodson annoyed me on TUF, and I'd like to see him lose.

Welterweight Match [FOX3-07]
Fuel
John Hathaway				Pascal Krauss
WW #49 / 106 points				NR / 27 points
15 - 1 - 0				10 - 0 - 0
Wins: 5 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 6 Dec				Wins: 2 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 5.24				Win Points: 6.91
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.85:1	3.56:1	2.38:1	Payout:	4.75:1	1.36:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	5.24	3.90	5.24	Max Bet:	2.66	6.91	1.53

My Pick: John Hathaway

Hathaway has UFC experience and has done well. Krauss is an unknown. I'll go with the fighter I know.

Flyweight Match [FOX3-08]
Fuel
John Lineker				Louis Gaudinot
BW #56 / 56 points				BW #227 / 25 points
19 - 5 - 0				5 - 2 - 0
Wins: 8 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 7 Dec, 1 Other				Wins: 2 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 2 Dec
Win Points: 5.22				Win Points: 6.28
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.14:1	5.70:1	2.44:1	Payout:	2.38:1	4.75:1	2.38:1
Max Bet:	5.22	2.12	5.22	Max Bet:	6.28	2.66	6.28

My Pick: John Lineker

Gaudinot has annoying green hair and is inexperienced. Lineker gets the nod.

Lightweight Match [FOX3-09]
Fuel
Danny Castillo				John Cholish
LW #42 / 108 points				LW #71 / 86 points
13 - 4 - 0				8 - 1 - 0
Wins: 5 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 4 Dec				Wins: 3 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 7.52				Win Points: 7.96
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	2.47:1	3.09:1	3.09:1	Payout:	2.53:1	1.90:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	6.80	4.78	4.78	Max Bet:	6.53	7.96	1.53

My Pick: Danny Castillo

Castillo seems like the better fighter.

Featherweight Match [FOX3-10]
Fuel
Pablo Garza				Dennis Bermudez
FW #85 / 58 points				FW #311 / 26 points
11 - 2 - 0				7 - 3 - 0
Wins: 2 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 2 Dec				Wins: 3 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 3 Dec
Win Points: 4.36				Win Points: 5.24
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	5.23:1	1.49:1	5.23:1	Payout:	2.22:1	6.65:1	2.22:1
Max Bet:	2.36	4.36	2.36	Max Bet:	5.24	1.76	5.24

My Pick: Pablo Garza

Garza has the better record.

Bantamweight Match [FOX3-11]
N/A
Nick Denis				Ronald Delorme
BW #35 / 69 points				BW #114 / 38 points
11 - 2 - 0				7 - 1 - 0
Wins: 10 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 0 Dec				Wins: 2 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 0 Dec
Win Points: 5.84				Win Points: 6.73
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	1.05:1	7.50:1	7.50:1	Payout:	3.33:1	1.33:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	5.84	1.53	1.53	Max Bet:	4.29	6.73	1.53

My Pick: Nick Denis

Once again, I pick the "Ninja of Love" to win.

Middleweight Match [FOX3-12]
N/A
Mike Massenzio				Karlos Vemola
MW #101 / 62 points				MW #131 / 34 points
13 - 6 - 0				8 - 2 - 0
Wins: 2 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 5 Dec				Wins: 4 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 0 Dec
Win Points: 3.86				Win Points: 4.45
Outcome Betting				Outcome Betting
	(T)KO	Sub	Dec		(T)KO	Sub	Dec
Payout:	6.18:1	2.06:1	2.47:1	Payout:	1.90:1	1.90:1	7.50:1
Max Bet:	1.93	3.86	3.86	Max Bet:	4.45	4.45	1.53

My Pick: Karlos Vemola

Massenzio is unimpressive and seems to be used as a stepping stone for other fighters. Vemola should be able to use him as such.