WG Predictions/Goals/Wishes Update: September

September was a nice recovery from the disappointment of August as I received my fourth most hits in a month all-time as well as a couple more 4+ years active bills. Here's hoping this continues in October.

• Predictions
• 13.66 Bills Entered Per Day
• I entered 711 bills in September for an average of 23.70 bills per day. This puts the yearly total to 4969 and increases the daily average to 18.14. To hit this goal, I'll just have to average 0.34 for the rest of the year. As I continue to be well ahead of this goal, I'm keeping my prediction of 6000 bills from last month. The predictions below will be based on this updated number.
• 1231 Hits in 2012 / 4030 Overall Hits
• I got 136 hits in September bringing the yearly total to 1164 which is ahead of where I need to be for my 2012 goal. Including the new data from August, the hit prediction program from the original prediction post calculated that I'd get 364 more hits in 2012. That would result in 1528 hits in 2012 and 4327 overall. My expected slugging percentage would be 19.04% (up 0.07% from last month).
• 1015 Additional Bills with Hits in 2012 / 3445 Overall Bills with Hits
• Of the 136 hits, 117 were the initial hit on a bill putting my additional bills with hits in 2012 at 972. Using the output from the prediction program and Excel, I obtained a calculation of 288 more bills with hits. That would result in 1260 in 2012 and 3690 overall. That would put my expected hit rate at 16.24% (up 0.06% from last month).
• State Bingo Completion
• Still waiting on West Virginia. With it now being three-fourths of the way through the year, I'm starting to lose hope.
• One Additional California County Hit in 2012 / 53 Counties Hit Overall
• Completed in May. Additional county added in August. None new in September.
• 17 Additional FRB Bingos / 57 FRB Bingos Overall
• Completed in June. I completed 3 additional FRB bingos in Septmeber to put my total to 64. That puts me on pace for 31 in the year which would suggest I'll end the year with 71.
• No More Than 13 Hitless Days
• I had one hitless day in September. With just 6 so far this year, I'm in really good shape on this one.
• 80+ Day Hit Streak
• Already completed (81 day streak). Current streak is at 26 days.
• Goals
• National Rank Under 1000 in November & December
• I was never higher than 825 in September and even spent some time in the high 700s. This is looking like a slam dunk.
• State Rank Under 75
• My rank peaked at 66 in September and hit a low of 60. I'm in really good shape for this one.
• $1s Making Up >87.29% of All Entries
• I ended the month at 87.31% (up 0.25% from last month). Assuming I don't go on a massive spree of entering non-ones, this one is in the books.
• More Series 2009 Entries Than 2003A
• Completed in August. 2009 is even more in the lead now.
• Decrease San Francisco "L" FRB Bills Below 50%
• The San Francisco percentage is now down to 47.8%. I'm just about done with the bill insertions, so we'll see if this stays under in the last quarter of the year..
• Increase Percentage of Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St. Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J" FRB Bills
• All are currently above the desired percentage.
• 30 Zip Codes with 25+ Entries
• One new zip code added in September putting my at 28 zip codes with 25+ entries. Not sure where I'm going to get another 2.
• Wishes
• 5 Hit Bill
• No five hit bill yet. Got my second four hit bill of the year in September.
• New Record Month for Hits
• The record is still 160 hits. September's 136 is my fourth best all-time.
• Surpass 500 2006 L-L $1 Entries
• Completed in May. 4 entered in September bringing the total up to 515.
• Surpass 400 Entries with one 2009 FRB/Block Combo and 300 with Another
• My top 2009 block is LG with 362 entries with 16 entered in September and 197 total in 2012. LG should get close to 400, but I'm not sure it will surpass. LB is second with 338 (20 in August, 103 in 2012). Third is LF with 308 (15 in September, 113 in 2012). LK is fourth with 253 (47 in September, all 253 in 2012). LK should challenge LG for top 2009 block by the end of the year. Four new blocks surpassed 200+ entries in September, but all were part of my lesser FRB insertion plan: HA (227 entries), IA (202 entries), CA (202 entries), and JA (200 entries). I don't expect any of those will be close to 300 entries by the year.
• Complete Non-Star Portions of Series 2003A and 2006 $1 Bingo
• No new additions in September. This one is not going to happen.
• 4+ Year Active Bill
• Completed in June. 2 (!) additional 4+ year active bills in September including my new all-time longest active bill.

NFL Playoff Picture: Week Four

Week 4 of the 2012 NFL season is in the books, and while it's a bit premature to start thinking about the playoffs, it doesn't hurt to know where the teams stand 1/4 of the way through the season (well, 1/4 for all the teams but Pittsburgh and Indianapolis: the only teams that have had a bye).

The seedings below are based on calculating any unplayed game as a 0-0 tie. This helps keep the future games in play for the strength of schedule tiebreaker.

Starting off with the AFC, the #1 seed is pretty easy to determine as the Houston Texans are the AFC's only 4-0 team. The Texans already have a 2.5 game lead on their closest divisional competition and are possible the team most likely to still be leading their division at the end of the season. Looking at the rest of the AFC playoff teams:

We can see that there are two 2-2 teams (both from the AFC East) currently in the playoff picture (whereas all NFC playoff teams have a better record than 2-2). The Jets are the only team to lose in week four and remain in the playoff picture.

With their loss to the Patriots, Buffalo fell out of the picture (from #5), Cincinnati moved up to #5 from #6, and New England took over the #6 spot.

On the NFC side, there are two 4-0 teams: the Arizona Cardinals and the Atlanta Falcons. Both survived scares this week, but in the end, a win is a win. The Cardinals currently have a hold on the #1 seed since they've played more games against NFC teams (thus leading the conference record tie-breaker). Looking at the rest of the playoff picture:

The NFC playoff picture had the only divisional leader change as the Cowboys dropped from first in the East to be replaced by the Eagles. The Monday night game also propelled the Bears into the playoff picture.

Additionally, with their loss to the Rams, Seattle fell out of the #6 seed replaced by the aforementioned Bears. The Cowboys were in the 4 spot last week, so the Eagles took over that spot from them.

Key Week 5 Matchups

1. Denver at New England

A win by Denver puts them into a wild card spot. New England holds onto a wild card spot with a win and moves into division leader with a win and a Jets loss.

2. Arizona at St. Louis

If the Rams win and the 49ers and Bears both lose, the Rams will take over a wild card spot. The Rams could get a wild card spot other ways, but there are too many factors to list out here. If the Rams and the 49ers win, the 49ers will take over the division lead from Arizona due to record in common games (Arizona's win against Philadelphia doesn't count towards this factor). If Arizona wins, they keep the #1 seed regardless of what Atlanta does.

3. Houston at New York Jets

At worst, Houston could drop to #2 with a loss. With a win, they definitely keep the top spot. The Jets keep the division lead with a win or if New England and Buffalo also lose. They could keep a wild card spot with a loss if New England wins and Buffalo loses.

4. Buffalo at San Francisco

If Buffalo wins and the Patriots and Jets both lose, the Bills take over the division lead. Otherwise, the Bills have an outside shot at a wild card spot. If the 49ers and the Cardinals win, the 49ers will hold onto the #5 spot.

5. Atlanta at Washington

Atlanta stays on top of the South regardless of outcome. With a Redskin win and help, Washington can move into a playoff spot.

Four Bridges Half Marathon Training: Week Three

I am now halfway through my training (week zero through week seven) for the Four Bridges Half Marathon. So far, so good. But the next four weeks will be tougher than these last four, and a couple of tennis matches will make things even more difficult (at least schedule-wise). I wouldn't be surprised if I don't hit planned mileage in all of the next four weeks.

With that said, here's my weekly mileage compared to the Four Bridges training plan:

	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun
	Sep 24	Sep 25	Sep 26	Sep 27	Sep 28	Sep 29	Sep 30
4BHM Plan	6.0	3.0		4.0	2.0	7.0
Actual	6.50	3.35	4.60	3.35		6.11

Plan Mileage: 22.0
Actual Mileage: 23.91

I rearranged the schedule to allow for a day of rest before Run for Courage on Saturday. If you saw my post about that race, you'll know that the day of rest (and my half marathon training, majorly paid off.

We'll see how fatigued my legs/body are after the race on Monday when I start "Week Four" of training. Speaking of which, here's what's recommended by Four Bridges:

Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun
6.0	3.0		4.0	3.0	8.0

Plan Mileage: 24.0

Since I have tennis on Thursday, I'll be moving a run to Wednesday. My long run last week was 7.75, so I'll probably target 9 on Saturday rather than 8. I'd like to have Friday to rest, so I'm thinking that I'll move the remaining two miles from the planned Friday run (the first going to Saturday) to the other days targeting 6.5 on Monday, 3.5 on Tuesday, and 5 on Wednesday.

My Where's George Week in Review: 09/23/12 - 09/29/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 37 hits in 12 States (yes, I'm counting the District of Columbia as a State mostly because Where's George does) [AZ, CA²⁴, DC, IL, MD, NJ, NV, NY, OR, PA, TX², WA²]. I now have hits in 44 States in 2012 with 1 added this week: DC. Additionally I now have hits in 464 counties with 4 new this week: DeKalb IL, Baltimore City MD, Ocean NJ, Mercer PA.

Of those 37 hits, 1 was the 4^th hit on the bill (my first four hit bill since February), 1 was the 3^rd hit on the bill, 3 were the 2^nd hit on the bill, and the rest (32) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 2 Years 193 Days 6 Hours 18 Minutes after I originally entered it.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
23	24	25	26	27	28	29
9	2	7	3	3	7	6

Add another 7 days to the hit streak, and it now stands at 25 days which is tied for my 10th best hit streak all time.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, it was another good week for all items. I should surpass my predicted number of bill entries for the year next week:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	21557	21677	120	4957	21720	95.6	20450	+24	+1227
Bills with Hits	2430	3365	3397	32	967	3445	19.4	3187	+13	+210
Total Hits	2799	3921	3958	37	1159	4030	23.5	3717	+13	+241

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.30% [+1.01%], so for now, this goal is completed, but that could easily be reversed.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	18812	18924	112	4497	18959	108.8	18920	+3	+4
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6646 entries this year rather than 5000						20396	107.8	18879	+4	+45

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, this has already been completed. I'm closing in on having more hits on 2009 bills than 2003A.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3830	3835	5	232		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	54	2246	+21	+563
2009	1339	4300	4380	80	3041		Actual	75	2809

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", all moved in the desired direction this week. I'm a week (at most two) away from completing the insertion process, and then it'll be fun to see how the numbers stack up:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	10333	47.93%	10373	47.85%	< 50.0%	49.94%	10826	+453
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	737	3.42%	746	3.44%	> 2.8%	2.85%	619	+127
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	750	3.48%	760	3.51%	> 2.4%	2.45%	532	+228
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	691	3.21%	700	3.23%	> 2.3%	2.35%	510	+190
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	627	2.91%	632	2.92%	> 2.2%	2.25%	488	+144
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	582	2.70%	589	2.72%	> 2.1%	2.15%	466	+123
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	533	2.47%	540	2.49%	> 1.7%	1.75%	380	+160

It was another good week for hits, and September is currently fourth on the list of my top hit months. Six hits behind third place with a day to go makes it unlikely that September will move up from fourth, but clearing 130 hits is nice after August failed to get to 110.

Run for Courage 10K: A New Personal Record

What a beautiful day for a run! It may have been a touch cold when I arrived an hour early (to ensure parking), but that faded away by a half hour before race day. I set my 5K PR (personal record) at this event last year and looked forward to doing the same for my 10K PR this year.

The festivities started by the presentation by a color guard and the signing of the national anthem. It was a nice touch. After some speeches about the cause, we did some quick stretching, and then the 10K was underway.

I didn't get the greatest start to the race due to confusion about lining up that was mostly my fault. The organizers had volunteers with minutes per mile signs in the starting area to indicate where you were suppose to line up, but those were meant for the 5K runners (starting after us). They did announce that the 10K runners were to move to the front, but I thought that was more so to get the 5K runner to move back. Regardless, it didn't cause too much trouble for me: for the first half mile I had to weave around a number of people but there wasn't much slowdown in that process.

I finished the first mile in 8:30 which is typical for me for a good 10K. Usually I start off fast and fade back. Not so today as my second mile was actually better than the first at 8:25. I faded a little bit starting with mile three, but even then, miles 3-5 were all ahead of the 9:26 pace I needed to set a new PR. I rallied back in the sixth mile and finished really strong at the end. According to my iPhone, the race was a tenth of a mile short, but even if that's true, I would have decimated my PR regardless:

	Pace		+/-
Mile	Target	Actual	Mile	Overall
1	09:28	08:30	+58	+58
2	09:28	08:25	+63	+120
3	09:28	08:51	+37	+157
4	09:28	08:53	+35	+191
5	09:28	09:06	+22	+213
6	09:28	08:39	+49	+262
+	02:01	00:41	+80	+342

I think the 41 seconds for the "+" (0.21 miles) makes the case that the race was short. To accomplish that, one would have to run at 18.4 mph. Granted, my phone could have under-tracked some of the distance throughout the race. I think mile 4 is where I passed the mile marker well before my phone alerted me of the completed mile.

Here's the badge for today's race:

I'd be curious to know how many runners today had similar surprising results in today's race. Although I think a lot of my improvement came from all of the training I've been doing for the Four Bridges Half Marathon. And it didn't hurt that this was one of the flatter runs that I've done.

Four Bridges Half Marathon Training: Week Two

I survived the second "official" week of Four Bridges Half Marathon training and have recovered nicely from the Making the Grade/Run for Education 10K that I ran last weekend although my first couple runs of the week were at a slower pace that usual (part of the recovery process as I understand).

Here's my weekly mileage compared to the Four Bridges training plan:

	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun
	Sep 17	Sep 18	Sep 19	Sep 20	Sep 21	Sep 22	Sep 23
4BHM Plan	5.0	2.0		4.0	2.0	6.0
Actual	4.65	3.65	4.75	Tennis		7.75

Plan Mileage: 19.0
Actual Mileage: 20.80

I ran fewer miles this week than last (20.80 versus 22.60) but was still above the planned mileage. I think the decrease was necessary as part of the recovery process, and since I still beat the planned mileage, I'm in good shape for the upcoming weeks.

I ran one fewer time than planned, but with tennis on Thursday, and the 10K being on Sunday rather than Saturday, I think this will turn out ok.

Taking a look at the upcoming week, here's what's recommended by Four Bridges:

Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun
6.0	3.0		4.0	2.0	7.0

Plan Mileage: 22.0

I'm doing the Run for Courage 10K on Saturday, so I'm going to have to make up an extra mile somewhere during the week. Since my long run last week was over 7 miles, I'm not concerned about shortening the long run for this week. Additionally, it'd be preferable to not run on Friday to rest up for the Run for Courage, so I'll likely run Monday through Thursday this week.

My Where's George Week in Review: 09/16/12 - 09/22/12

Hover over this explanation for more detailsThe nerd that I am, I chose to post once a week a summary of my previous week's Where's George activity in comparision to my goals for the year.

In order to make the charts fit, I had to abreviate the column headers. Each header is now hoverable for an explanation.

In the past week, I received 32 hits in 8 States [AZ, CA²³, IL, MO, NV², NY, PA, TX] as well as an international hit in Sheffield, United Kingdom. I still have hits in 43 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 460 counties with 3 new this week: Ogle IL, Oswego NY, Nueces TX.

Of those 32 hits, 1 was the 3^rd hit on the bill, 4 were the 2^nd hit on the bill, and the rest (27) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 3 Years 244 Days 19 Hours 56 Minutes after I originally entered it. This bill is currently my 8th longest active all-time.

Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
16	17	18	19	20	21	22
6	6	2	3	5	6	4

Another week without a hit-less day puts my current streak at 18 days.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, it was a positive week on all counts. Looks like I will surpass my predictions for the year for each in October:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	PPrediction (for Year)	P/WPrediction for Week: A Week's Share of the Total	PtDPrediction to Date: The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far	WvPWeek versus Prediction: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W	DvPDate versus Prediction: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered	16720	21406	21557	151	4837	21720	95.6	20354	+55	+1203
Bills with Hits	2430	3338	3365	27	935	3445	19.4	3168	+8	+197
Total Hits	2799	3889	3921	32	1122	4030	23.5	3694	+8	+227

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 87.27% [+0.98%]. Getting close to being in completion range.

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	GGoal: Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year	GfWGoal for Week: This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week	GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered	14427	18675	18812	137	4385	18959	136.9	18811	+0	+1
Dynamic GoalProgress towards the goal based on my actual rate of entering bills per day which would result in 6656 entries this year rather than 5000						20404	135.6	18771	+1	+41

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, this is completed and 2009 is almost now at a 500 entry lead:

	SoYStart of Year	SoWStart of Week	EoWEnd of Week	WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year			WΔWeek Change: Number Added this Week	YΔYear Change: Number Added this Year	WvGWeek versus Goal: How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A	3603	3828	3830	2	227		GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered	68	2191	+37	+543
2009	1339	4193	4300	107	2961		Actual	105	2734

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", all FRB's went in the desired direction this week. I will have all of the planned inserted bills done within two weeks, and then it will be interesting to watch how things hold up:

	SoYStart of Year	SoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of Year	SoWStart of Week	SoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of Week	EoWEnd of Week	EoW%Percentage of Overall at End of Week	GoalGoal Percentage		GtDGoal to Date: The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal	DvGDate versus Goal: How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"	8532	51.03%	10274	48.00%	10333	47.93%	< 50.0%	49.94%	10771	+438
Boston "A"	461	2.76%	729	3.41%	737	3.42%	> 2.8%	2.85%	615	+122
Cleveland "D"	395	2.36%	740	3.46%	750	3.48%	> 2.4%	2.45%	529	+221
St. Louis "H"	382	2.28%	682	3.19%	691	3.21%	> 2.3%	2.35%	507	+184
Philadelphia "C"	376	2.25%	616	2.88%	627	2.91%	> 2.2%	2.25%	485	+142
Minneapolis "I"	352	2.11%	570	2.66%	582	2.70%	> 2.1%	2.15%	463	+119
Kansas City "J"	290	1.73%	525	2.45%	533	2.47%	> 1.7%	1.75%	378	+155

It was another good week for hits, and September looks like it's going to be a nice recovery from the disappointment that was August.