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Sunday, April 29, 2012

My Where's George Week in Review: 04/22/12 - 04/28/12

In the past week, I received 25 hits in 7 States [AZ, CA18, FL, NV, NY, OR, TX2]. I still have hits in 32 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 407 counties with 1 new this week: Nacogdoches TX.

Of those 25 hits, 2 were the 3rd hit on the bill, 2 were the 2nd hit on the bill, and the rest (21) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 2 Years 169 Days 17 Hours 14 Minutes after I originally entered it.

SundayMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturday
22232425262728
4221745

The 25 hits this week ties my worst week for the year. However, Where's George was having some hardware issues this week, and the site was down for a while on Wednesday to fix those issues. I think that may have played into why Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday were light on hits. Thankfully, I still got a hit each day which keeps my current hit streak alive. It's now up to 25 days.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, I still had a positive week in each category, although not by as much as in past weeks. But it's positive, so I'm happy.

 SoYStart of YearSoWStart of WeekEoWEnd of WeekWeek Change:
Number Added this Week
Year Change:
Number Added this Year
PPrediction (for Year)P/WPrediction for Week:
A Week's Share of the Total
PtDPrediction to Date:
The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far
WvPWeek versus Prediction:
How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W
DvPDate versus Prediction:
How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered1672018429185279818072172095.618346+2+181
Bills with Hits24302829285021420344519.42760+2+90
Total Hits27993276330125502403023.53199+1+102

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 86.87% [+0.58%]. Another slightly positive week:

 SoYStart of YearSoWStart of WeekEoWEnd of WeekWeek Change:
Number Added this Week
Year Change:
Number Added this Year
GGoal:
Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year
GfWGoal for Week:
This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week
GtDGoal to Date:
The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal
WvGWeek versus Goal:
How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW
DvGDate versus Goal:
How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered1442716002160949216671895988.816065+3+29

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, I'm still gaining ground and expect 2009 to surpass 2003A by the end of September:

 SoYStart of YearSoWStart of WeekEoWEnd of WeekWeek Change:
Number Added this Week
Year Change:
Number Added this Year
  Week Change:
Number Added this Week
Year Change:
Number Added this Year
WvGWeek versus Goal:
How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ
DvGDate versus Goal:
How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A3603369937034100GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered44819+9+153
2009133923542411571072Actual53972

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", nothing new numbers-wise this week. I have made purchases of the final 100 "H" bills and my first 100 "I" bills (yay!), so I just have the second set of "I" bills to go. As such, the negative number for Minneapolis should start to reverse in a couple of weeks:

 SoYStart of YearSoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of YearSoWStart of WeekSoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of WeekEoWEnd of WeekEoW%Percentage of Overall at End of WeekGoalGoal PercentageGtDGoal to Date:
The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal
DvGDate versus Goal:
How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"853251.03%919949.92%922849.81%< 50.0%49.94%9368+140
Boston "A"4612.76%5653.07%5743.10%> 2.8%2.85%518+56
Cleveland "D"3952.36%5783.14%5883.17%> 2.4%2.45%445+143
St. Louis "H"3822.28%4642.52%4712.54%> 2.3%2.35%429+42
Philadelphia "C"3762.25%4572.48%4662.52%> 2.2%2.25%417+49
Minneapolis "I"3522.11%3682.00%3681.99%> 2.1%2.15%394-26
Kansas City "J"2901.73%3601.95%3671.98%> 1.7%1.75%323+44

Even with the lower than average week for hits, I still got enough hits to make April the new record holder for hits in a month (currently at 133; old record was 129). With 2 days to go, April has a good chance to set this record well above the previous.

Sunday, April 22, 2012

UFC Fights I Want Made After UFC 145

Overall UFC 145 was an entertaining PPV, although I felt the main event was far less than stellar. The PPV did lack a bit of star power making the work of putting together match ideas for the winners a bit of an interesting exercise.

Jon Jones vs Dan Henderson
This match is pretty much already decided anyways. I don't know that I really need to see Hendo get demolished by Bones, but there's not really another compelling choice. Bones has beaten Bader, and Gustafsson should probably get another win before he gets his crack at the belt.

Rashad Evans vs Shogun Rua
What to do with Rashad? He's near the top of the division, but with the lackluster fight with Jones, I wouldn't want to see a rematch anytime soon. Shogun is another guy near the top that's not close to a title fight. This fight would put the winner back into title relevance.

Rory MacDonald vs Josh Koscheck/Johny Hendricks winner
Rory has been impressive so far with his only loss coming against Carlos Condit in a fight MacDonald was winning into Condit got the last second knockout. Rory is ready for a chance against another elite opponent, and the Koscheck/Hendricks winner makes sense with the lockjam the welterweight division is currently experiencing.

Ben Rothwell vs Mike Russow
I didn't expect Rothwell to defeat Schaub, and I'm having a hard time deciding where I'd like to see him go next. With his win, he deserves a fight against someone else on their way up, however, he feels much more like a gate keeper. Mike Russow feels like he fits both of those roles. Russow needs a fight that proves whether or not he's on his way up.

Michael McDonald vs Renan Barao
I usually don't pick a fighter that already has a fight, but McDonald against Barao in a #1 contender's match for the bantomweight title makes much more sense than Barao's fight against Ivan Menjivar. Another choice would be to just McDonald the next shot, but I'd like to see him get another quality win first.

Eddie Yagin vs Tyson Griffin or Manny Gamburyan
Typically, I don't like to pit winners versus losers, but in Yagin's case, taking on another "big" name at featherweight and winning will still build his resume. Griffin and Gamburyan both fit this need. I give a slight edge to Griffin since Gamburyan is on a three fight losing streak.

Mark Bocek vs Donald Cerone/Jeremy Stephens winner
Bocek's only losses have come to Henderson, Edgar, Jim Miller, and Mac Danzig. Other than Danzig, Bocek's losses have all come to quality opponents. With his recent win, he deserves another quality opponent.

Travis Browne vs Roy Nelson
Browne is ready for a bigger stage. UFC 146 is now in need of another heavyweight to fill out the "all heavyweight" PPV portion of the card. With Antonio "BigFoot" Silva fighting Cain now, Big Country is in need of a new opponent. Browne would fit that role nicely.

My Where's George Week in Review: 04/15/12 - 04/21/12

In the past week, I received 32 hits in 10 States [CA21, GA, HI, MD, MN, MT, NV, NY, TX, WA3]. I now have hits in 32 States in 2012 with 1 added this week: MT. Additionally I now have hits in 406 counties with 5 new this week: Clayton GA, Worcester MD, Powder River MT, Collin TX, and Chelan WA.

Of those 32 hits, 2 were the 3rd hit on the bill, 3 were the 2nd hit on the bill, and the rest (27) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 2 Years 313 Days 18 Hours 5 Minutes after I originally entered it.

SundayMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturday
15161718192021
6537281

A week without any hitless days adds 7 more days to the current streak bringing it up to 18 days. The sole hit on Saturday came early in the day, so there wasn't much of a sweat about whether or not the streak was going to continue.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, it was yet another high bill entry week. I don't expect the upcoming week will continue that trend, but we'll see. Once again, total hits and bills with hits were higher than expected:

 SoYStart of YearSoWStart of WeekEoWEnd of WeekWeek Change:
Number Added this Week
Year Change:
Number Added this Year
PPrediction (for Year)P/WPrediction for Week:
A Week's Share of the Total
PtDPrediction to Date:
The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far
WvPWeek versus Prediction:
How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W
DvPDate versus Prediction:
How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered16720182821842914717092172095.618250+51+179
Bills with Hits24302802282927399344519.42741+8+88
Total Hits27993244327632477403023.53176+8+100

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 86.83% [+0.54%]. I was two bills ahead this week, and as I now have a surplus of entered fives and tens waiting to be spent, I expect a good week this upcoming week for this stat:

 SoYStart of YearSoWStart of WeekEoWEnd of WeekWeek Change:
Number Added this Week
Year Change:
Number Added this Year
GGoal:
Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year
GfWGoal for Week:
This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week
GtDGoal to Date:
The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal
WvGWeek versus Goal:
How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW
DvGDate versus Goal:
How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered144271586716002135157518959133.215976+2+26

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, I've now entered over a thousand series 2009 bills for the year, and I continue to be well ahead of the needed pace:

 SoYStart of YearSoWStart of WeekEoWEnd of WeekWeek Change:
Number Added this Week
Year Change:
Number Added this Year
  Week Change:
Number Added this Week
Year Change:
Number Added this Year
WvGWeek versus Goal:
How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ
DvGDate versus Goal:
How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A360336933699696GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered67774+23+145
2009133922582354961015Actual90919

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", San Francisco has joined the group that is currently meeting my goal for the year. Only Minneapolis remains outside that group, and I finally saw a group of series 2009 "I" bills listed on eBay, so hopefully I'll win those and be on my way:

 SoYStart of YearSoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of YearSoWStart of WeekSoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of WeekEoWEnd of WeekEoW%Percentage of Overall at End of WeekGoalGoal PercentageGtDGoal to Date:
The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal
DvGDate versus Goal:
How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"853251.03%914850.04%919949.92%< 50.0%49.94%9323+124
Boston "A"4612.76%5523.02%5653.07%> 2.8%2.85%515+50
Cleveland "D"3952.36%5693.11%5783.14%> 2.4%2.45%442+136
St. Louis "H"3822.28%4562.49%4642.52%> 2.3%2.35%426+38
Philadelphia "C"3762.25%4442.43%4572.48%> 2.2%2.25%415+42
Minneapolis "I"3522.11%3672.01%3682.00%> 2.1%2.15%391-23
Kansas City "J"2901.73%3531.93%3601.95%> 1.7%1.75%321+39

I recently acquired my second set of "J" bills, so I just have the two sets of "I" plus one more "H" to go to have all of the bills on hand needed to accomplish my goal.

I have 109 hits so far in April with 9 days to go. My record for most hits in a month is 129, so I'm just 21 hits away from a new record. I'm averaging over 5 hits a day, and I'd still break the record if I averaged half that the remaining nine days.

Saturday, April 21, 2012

My UFC 145 Fight Picks

Light Heavyweight Match [UFC145-01]
PPV / Main Card / Main Event / Championship
Jon JonesRashad Evans
LHW #1 / 1146 pointsLHW #2 / 653 points
15 - 1 - 017 - 1 - 1
Wins: 8 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 2 DecWins: 6 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 9 Dec
Win Points: 22.74Win Points: 26.02
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:1.78:12.85:17.13:1Payout:2.69:17.50:11.79:1
Max Bet:12.825.401.63Max Bet:5.911.5312.65
My Pick: Jon Jones

Jones is a unique talent, and no one in the light heavyweight division seems like much of a challenge for him. At long as he takes the fight seriously, which he should, Jones should easily be able to take care of Evans.

Welterweight Match [UFC145-02]
PPV / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Rory MacDonaldChe Mills
WW #14 / 237 pointsWW #69 / 84 points
12 - 1 - 014 - 4 - 0 (1 NC)
Wins: 5 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 1 DecWins: 7 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 3 Dec
Win Points: 15.59Win Points: 19.55
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:2.28:11.90:17.50:1Payout:1.90:13.33:14.43:1
Max Bet:7.8111.111.53Max Bet:11.114.292.91
My Pick: Rory MacDonald

Rory MacDonald is a future star of the welterweight division. Che Mills should just represent a slight bump on his way to the top.

Heavyweight Match [UFC145-03]
PPV / Main Card
Brendan SchaubBen Rothwell
HW #15 / 132 pointsHW #55 / 60 points
8 - 2 - 031 - 8 - 0
Wins: 7 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 1 DecWins: 17 (T)KO, 11 Sub, 3 Dec
Win Points: 15.52Win Points: 18.61
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:1.09:17.50:17.50:1Payout:1.73:12.68:17.50:1
Max Bet:15.521.531.53Max Bet:13.695.951.53
My Pick: Brendan Schaub

Rothwell was less than impressive in his loss to Mark Hunt and seems like he's on his way slight. Schaub suffered a slight setback in his loss to Big Nog and should use this match to get back on track.

Bantamweight Match [UFC145-04]
PPV / Main Card
Miguel TorresMichael McDonald
BW #8 / 113 pointsBW #9 / 112 points
40 - 4 - 014 - 1 - 0
Wins: 9 (T)KO, 23 Sub, 8 DecWins: 8 (T)KO, 4 Sub, 2 Dec
Win Points: 19.00Win Points: 19.04
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:4.22:11.65:14.75:1Payout:1.66:13.33:16.65:1
Max Bet:3.1015.382.66Max Bet:15.154.291.76
My Pick: Michael McDonald

From looking unstoppable a couple years ago to now almost being irrelevant, Torres could really use this win. Unfortunately, this is more likely to be Michael McDonald coming out party.

Featherweight Match [UFC145-05]
PPV / Main Card
Mark HominickEddie Yagin
FW #28 / 109 pointsFW #83 / 58 points
20 - 10 - 015 - 5 - 1
Wins: 8 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 4 DecWins: 5 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 5 Dec
Win Points: 14.24Win Points: 16.54
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:2.38:12.38:14.75:1Payout:2.85:12.85:12.85:1
Max Bet:7.247.242.66Max Bet:5.405.405.40
My Pick: Mark Hominick

I'm not a fan of Hominick. However, Yagin's fight history doesn't contain any sign that he'll be able to handle the former title contender.

Lightweight Match [UFC145-06]
PPV / Main Card
Mark BocekJohn Alessio
LW #25 / 146 pointsLW #38 / 127 points
10 - 4 - 034 - 14 - 0
Wins: 1 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 2 DecWins: 10 (T)KO, 15 Sub, 7 Dec, 2 Other
Win Points: 16.30Win Points: 16.88
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:7.50:11.36:14.75:1Payout:3.04:12.03:14.34:1
Max Bet:1.5316.302.66Max Bet:4.909.702.99
My Pick: Mark Bocek

This should be a good match. Alessio's better days really seem to be behind him, although the recent move to lightweight may just be what he needed for a resurgence. However, I think that's going to be the case.

Heavyweight Match [UFC145-07]
FX
Travis BrowneChad Griggs
HW #19 / 120 pointsHW #36 / 78 points
12 - 0 - 111 - 1 - 0
Wins: 9 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 2 DecWins: 9 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 0 Dec
Win Points: 11.48Win Points: 12.75
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:1.27:17.50:15.70:1Payout:1.16:15.23:17.50:1
Max Bet:11.481.532.12Max Bet:12.752.361.53
My Pick: Travis Browne

Welterweight Match [UFC145-08]
FX
Matt BrownStephen Thompson
WW #84 / 79 pointsWW #240 / 40 points
13 - 11 - 06 - 0 - 0
Wins: 7 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 1 DecWins: 3 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 2 Dec
Win Points: 6.39Win Points: 7.50
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:1.76:12.47:17.50:1Payout:1.90:15.70:12.85:1
Max Bet:6.396.391.53Max Bet:7.502.125.40
My Pick: Stephen Thompson

Lightweight Match [UFC145-09]
FX
Anthony NjokuaniJohn Makdessi
LW #106 / 64 pointsLW #134 / 54 points
14 - 6 - 0 (1 NC)9 - 1 - 0
Wins: 8 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 6 DecWins: 7 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 2 Dec
Win Points: 6.83Win Points: 7.12
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:1.66:17.50:12.22:1Payout:1.22:17.50:14.28:1
Max Bet:6.831.536.83Max Bet:7.121.533.04
My Pick: Anthony Njokuani

Lightweight Match [UFC145-10]
FX
Mac DanzigEfrain Escudero
LW #53 / 100 pointsLW #112 / 62 points
20 - 9 - 118 - 4 - 0
Wins: 5 (T)KO, 10 Sub, 5 DecWins: 1 (T)KO, 12 Sub, 5 Dec
Win Points: 8.12Win Points: 9.12
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:3.80:11.90:13.80:1Payout:7.50:11.43:13.42:1
Max Bet:3.578.123.57Max Bet:1.539.124.13
My Pick: Mac Danzig

Welterweight Match [UFC145-11]
N/A
Chris ClementsKeith Wisniewski
WW #77 / 81 pointsWW #115 / 65 points
10 - 4 - 028 - 13 - 1
Wins: 10 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 0 DecWins: 6 (T)KO, 15 Sub, 7 Dec
Win Points: 4.65Win Points: 4.91
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:0.95:17.50:17.50:1Payout:4.43:11.77:13.80:1
Max Bet:0.001.531.53Max Bet:2.914.913.57
My Pick: Keith Wisniewski

Featherweight Match [UFC145-12]
N/A
Maximo BlancoMarcus Brimage
LW #84 / 78 pointsFW #220 / 31 points
8 - 3 - 1 (1 NC)4 - 1 - 0
Wins: 7 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 1 DecWins: 2 (T)KO, 0 Sub, 2 Dec
Win Points: 3.58Win Points: 4.43
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:1.09:17.50:17.50:1Payout:1.90:17.50:11.90:1
Max Bet:3.581.531.53Max Bet:4.431.534.43
My Pick: Maximo Blanco

Sunday, April 15, 2012

My Where's George Week in Review: 04/08/12 - 04/14/12

In the past week, I received 45 hits in 9 States [AL, AZ, CA34, HI2, LA, MN, OR3, TX, UT]. I now have hits in 31 States in 2012 with 2 added this week: AL and MN. Additionally I now have hits in 401 counties with 2 new this week: Lee AL and Lafayette LA.

Of those 45 hits, 8 were the 2nd hit on the bill and the rest (37) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 2 Years 208 Days 21 Hours 52 Minutes after I originally entered it.

SundayMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturday
08091011121314
10736667

45 hits in a week is the new record for most hits in a week breaking the old record by 11 hits. Hopefully this isn't a sign that next week will be light on hits. My current hit streak is now at 11 days.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, it was another solid week all around, and I am now over a week's worth of entries ahead of pace (I'm about 4 weeks ahead on bills with hits and total hits, and yet, somehow that feels less impressive):

 SoYStart of YearSoWStart of WeekEoWEnd of WeekWeek Change:
Number Added this Week
Year Change:
Number Added this Year
PPrediction (for Year)P/WPrediction for Week:
A Week's Share of the Total
PtDPrediction to Date:
The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far
WvPWeek versus Prediction:
How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W
DvPDate versus Prediction:
How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered16720181531828212915622172095.618154+33+128
Bills with Hits24302765280237372344519.42721+18+81
Total Hits27993199324445445403023.53152+21+92

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 86.79% [+0.50%], so I'm halfway there:

 SoYStart of YearSoWStart of WeekEoWEnd of WeekWeek Change:
Number Added this Week
Year Change:
Number Added this Year
GGoal:
Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year
GfWGoal for Week:
This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week
GtDGoal to Date:
The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal
WvGWeek versus Goal:
How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW
DvGDate versus Goal:
How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered144271574315867124144018959116.915843+7+24

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, it was yet another really strong week. I should enter my 1000th 2009 bill of the year in the next two weeks:

 SoYStart of YearSoWStart of WeekEoWEnd of WeekWeek Change:
Number Added this Week
Year Change:
Number Added this Year
  Week Change:
Number Added this Week
Year Change:
Number Added this Year
WvGWeek versus Goal:
How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ
DvGDate versus Goal:
How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A360336913693290GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered58708+25+121
200913392173225885919Actual83829

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", nothing really new to say (again):

 SoYStart of YearSoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of YearSoWStart of WeekSoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of WeekEoWEnd of WeekEoW%Percentage of Overall at End of WeekGoalGoal PercentageGtDGoal to Date:
The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal
DvGDate versus Goal:
How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"853251.03%910050.13%914850.04%< 50.0%49.94%9255+107
Boston "A"4612.76%5412.98%5523.02%> 2.8%2.85%511+41
Cleveland "D"3952.36%5583.07%5693.11%> 2.4%2.45%438+131
St. Louis "H"3822.28%4492.47%4562.49%> 2.3%2.35%422+34
Philadelphia "C"3762.25%4302.37%4442.43%> 2.2%2.25%411+33
Minneapolis "I"3522.11%3642.01%3672.01%> 2.1%2.15%388-21
Kansas City "J"2901.73%3481.92%3531.93%> 1.7%1.75%318+35

This week's 45 hits was not only the most for any week this year, but the most I've received all-time (previous best was 39 - based on Sunday-Saturday weeks). This has placed April in the hunt to break my record for most hits in a month (129 - last month) if I get 53 hits in the remaining 16 days (~3.1 hits/day). That feels like it should be a given, but often times when things feel that way, the harsh reality of a slump hits me in the face.

Saturday, April 14, 2012

My UFC on FuelTV 2 Picks

I can't say that I put as much thought into these picks as I have for previous events, but it sure is nice to have the UFC back.

Light Heavyweight Match [FUEL2-01]
Fuel / Main Card / Main Event
Alexander GustafssonThiago Silva
LHW #11 / 258 pointsNR / 65 points
13 - 1 - 014 - 2 - 0
Wins: 9 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 1 DecWins: 11 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 9.73Win Points: 12.84
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:1.37:14.12:17.50:1Payout:1.21:16.65:17.50:1
Max Bet:9.733.201.53Max Bet:12.841.761.53
My Pick: Alexander Gustafsson

Middleweight Match [FUEL2-02]
Fuel / Main Card / Co-Main Event
Brian StannAlessio Sakara
MW #14 / 242 pointsMW #52 / 103 points
11 - 4 - 015 - 8 - 0 (1 NC)
Wins: 8 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 2 DecWins: 9 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 4 Dec
Win Points: 11.42Win Points: 13.87
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:1.31:17.50:15.23:1Payout:1.58:17.13:13.56:1
Max Bet:11.421.532.36Max Bet:13.871.633.90
My Pick: Brian Stann

Welterweight Match [FUEL2-03]
Fuel / Main Card
Siyar BahadurzadaPaulo Thiago
WW #14 / 232 pointsWW #31 / 159 points
20 - 4 - 114 - 3 - 0
Wins: 10 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 4 DecWins: 2 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 4 Dec
Win Points: 12.00Win Points: 13.17
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:1.90:13.17:14.75:1Payout:6.65:11.66:13.33:1
Max Bet:11.114.602.66Max Bet:1.7613.174.29
My Pick: Paulo Thiago

Featherweight Match [FUEL2-04]
Fuel / Main Card
Dennis SiverDiego Nunes
LW #18 / 163 pointsFW #9 / 167 points
19 - 8 - 017 - 2 - 0
Wins: 5 (T)KO, 9 Sub, 5 DecWins: 5 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 6 Dec
Win Points: 13.42Win Points: 13.45
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:3.61:12.01:13.61:1Payout:3.23:12.69:12.69:1
Max Bet:3.839.903.83Max Bet:4.485.915.91
My Pick: Diego Nunes

Welterweight Match [FUEL2-05]
Fuel / Main Card
John MaguireDeMargues Johnson
WW #49 / 104 pointsWW #71 / 83 points
17 - 3 - 015 - 9 - 0
Wins: 3 (T)KO, 9 Sub, 5 DecWins: 6 (T)KO, 7 Sub, 2 Dec
Win Points: 9.22Win Points: 9.75
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:5.38:11.79:13.23:1Payout:2.38:12.04:17.13:1
Max Bet:2.289.224.48Max Bet:7.249.611.63
My Pick: John Maguire

Bantamweight Match [FUEL2-06]
Fuel / Main Card
Brad PickettDamacio Page
BW #48 / 60 pointsBW #127 / 35 points
20 - 6 - 015 - 6 - 0
Wins: 6 (T)KO, 9 Sub, 5 DecWins: 8 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 8.07Win Points: 9.19
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:3.17:12.11:13.80:1Payout:1.78:12.38:17.50:1
Max Bet:4.608.073.57Max Bet:9.197.241.53
My Pick: Brad Pickett

Welterweight Match [FUEL2-07]
N/A
James HeadPapy Abedi
WW #96 / 65 pointsWW #240 / 39 points
7 - 2 - 08 - 1 - 0
Wins: 4 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 1 DecWins: 5 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 3.36Win Points: 3.80
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:1.66:13.33:16.65:1Payout:1.52:13.80:17.50:1
Max Bet:3.363.361.76Max Bet:3.803.571.53
My Pick: Papy Abedi

Light Heavyweight Match [FUEL2-08]
N/A
Cyrille DiabateTom DeBlass
LHW #53 / 73 pointsLHW #75 / 55 points
17 - 8 - 17 - 0 - 0
Wins: 8 (T)KO, 5 Sub, 4 DecWins: 2 (T)KO, 2 Sub, 3 Dec
Win Points: 6.03Win Points: 6.47
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:2.02:13.23:14.04:1Payout:3.33:13.33:12.22:1
Max Bet:6.034.483.28Max Bet:4.294.296.47
My Pick: Tom DeBlass

Middleweight Match [FUEL2-09]
N/A
Francis CarmontMagnus Cedenblad
MW #43 / 110 pointsMW #105 / 59 points
17 - 7 - 010 - 3 - 0
Wins: 6 (T)KO, 8 Sub, 3 DecWins: 6 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 5.66Win Points: 6.56
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:2.69:12.02:15.38:1Payout:1.58:13.17:17.50:1
Max Bet:5.665.662.28Max Bet:6.564.601.53
My Pick: Francis Carmont

Lightweight Match [FUEL2-10]
N/A
Reza MadadiYoislandy Izquierdo
LW #80 / 81 pointsLW #151 / 52 points
11 - 2 - 06 - 0 - 0
Wins: 1 (T)KO, 6 Sub, 3 Dec, 1 OtherWins: 3 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 2 Dec
Win Points: 4.12Win Points: 4.59
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:7.50:11.58:13.17:1Payout:1.90:15.70:12.85:1
Max Bet:1.534.124.12Max Bet:4.592.124.59
My Pick: Yoislandy Izquierdo

Welterweight Match [FUEL2-11]
N/A
Simeon ThoresenBesam Yousef
WW #206 / 44 pointsWW #500 / 24 points
16 - 2 - 16 - 0 - 0
Wins: 1 (T)KO, 14 Sub, 1 DecWins: 2 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 1 Dec
Win Points: 2.17Win Points: 2.51
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:7.50:11.09:17.50:1Payout:2.85:11.90:15.70:1
Max Bet:1.532.171.53Max Bet:2.512.512.12
My Pick: Simeon Thoresen

Featherweight Match [FUEL2-12]
N/A
Eric WiselyJason Young
FW #56 / 72 pointsFW #72 / 62 points
19 - 7 - 08 - 5 - 0
Wins: 7 (T)KO, 3 Sub, 4 Dec, 5 OtherWins: 3 (T)KO, 1 Sub, 4 Dec
Win Points: 6.09Win Points: 6.32
Outcome BettingOutcome Betting
 (T)KOSubDec (T)KOSubDec
Payout:1.90:14.43:13.33:1Payout:2.53:17.50:11.90:1
Max Bet:6.092.914.29Max Bet:6.321.536.32
My Pick: Eric Wisely

Sunday, April 8, 2012

My Where's George Week in Review: 04/01/12 - 04/07/12

In the past week, I received 32 hits in 3 States [CA30, NV, TX]. 3 States is the lowest amount of States I've hit in a week this year while 32 hits in a week is my second most. How odd to have both of those statements apply to one week. I still have hits in 29 States in 2012 with none added this week. Additionally I now have hits in 399 counties with 1 new this week: Washington TX.

Of those 32 hits, 1 was the 3rd hit on the bill, 4 were the 2nd hit on the bill, and the rest (27) were the initial hit on the bill. The longest bill active from the bunch was re-entered 2 Years 126 Days 3 Hours 32 Minutes after I originally entered it.

SundayMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturday
01020304050607
4205984

The big goose egg on Tuesday ended a 15 day hit streak. So I'm back starting from scratch trying to beat the 81 day streak.

Taking a look at how my predictions regarding bill entries and hits are going so far, it was another good week for bill entries, and I'm now almost a full week ahead of the pace needed for this year. Bills with hits and total hits had another excellent week, and I'm still way ahead of pace:

 SoYStart of YearSoWStart of WeekEoWEnd of WeekWeek Change:
Number Added this Week
Year Change:
Number Added this Year
PPrediction (for Year)P/WPrediction for Week:
A Week's Share of the Total
PtDPrediction to Date:
The Portion of the Prediction that should be Completed so Far
WvPWeek versus Prediction:
How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the P/W
DvPDate versus Prediction:
How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the PtD
Bills Entered16720180241815312914332172095.618059+33+94
Bills with Hits24302738276527335344519.42702+8+63
Total Hits27993167319932400403023.53129+8+70

Based on the goal of 5000 bill entries, here's how I'm doing towards my bill entry goals. Starting off with my goal of increasing the percentage that $1s make up of my entries by 1% (started the year at 86.29% so the goal is 87.29%), my percentage is now 86.72% [+0.43%]. I was one bill behind the needed pace this week, but I still have a slight lead in this category:

 SoYStart of YearSoWStart of WeekEoWEnd of WeekWeek Change:
Number Added this Week
Year Change:
Number Added this Year
GGoal:
Number of Total Ones Needed by the End of the Year Based on the Prediction of 5000 Bill Entries This Year
GfWGoal for Week:
This Week's Portion of the Goal Based on the Number of Bills Entered in the Week
GtDGoal to Date:
The Numbers of One Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal
WvGWeek versus Goal:
How the Week's Numbers Stack Up Against the GfW
DvGDate versus Goal:
How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
$1s Entered144271562715743116131618959116.915726-1+17

As for the goal of having series 2009 pass series 2003A in number of entries, it was a fantastic week for this goal (perhaps the best gain all year):

 SoYStart of YearSoWStart of WeekEoWEnd of WeekWeek Change:
Number Added this Week
Year Change:
Number Added this Year
  Week Change:
Number Added this Week
Year Change:
Number Added this Year
WvGWeek versus Goal:
How the Actual WΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal WΔ
DvGDate versus Goal:
How the Actual YΔ Stacks Up Against the Goal YΔ
2003A360336853691688GoalNumber of Entries Needed Per Timeframe to Stay on Pace for the Year Based on the Predicted Amount of 5000 Bills Entered58649+20+97
200913392089217384834Actual78746

And for my goal of decreasing San Francisco "L" FRB entries below 50.0% while increasing Boston "A", Cleveland "D", St Louis "H", Philadelphia "C", Minneapolis "I", and Kansas City "J", I'm probably a one or two from turning the San Francisco line to green. Minneapolis gets farther and farther behind, but I've yet to find any "I" ones worth considering for purchase:

 SoYStart of YearSoY%Percentage of Overall at Start of YearSoWStart of WeekSoW%Percentage of Overall at Start of WeekEoWEnd of WeekEoW%Percentage of Overall at End of WeekGoalGoal PercentageGtDGoal to Date:
The Numbers Needed to be Entered so Far this Year to be on Track to Met the Overall Goal
DvGDate versus Goal:
How the Year's Numbers So Far Stack Up Against the GtD
San Francisco "L"853251.03%905750.25%910050.13%< 50.0%49.94%9195+95
Boston "A"4612.76%5282.93%5412.98%> 2.8%2.85%507+34
Cleveland "D"3952.36%5453.02%5583.07%> 2.4%2.45%435+123
St. Louis "H"3822.28%4422.45%4492.47%> 2.3%2.35%419+30
Philadelphia "C"3762.25%4192.32%4302.37%> 2.2%2.25%408+22
Minneapolis "I"3522.11%3642.02%3642.01%> 2.1%2.15%385-21
Kansas City "J"2901.73%3401.89%3481.92%> 1.7%1.75%316+32

A strong finish to the week helped saved this week from being lame. Hopefully that momentum will carry over into next week, however, Easter tends not to be a great day for hits, so we'll see.